Category Archives: Gold & Silver

Gold Miners … Go Deep

March 12, 2025 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST 1 Comment

Deeper, on Retrace

This update on the miners GDXJ, said we’re close to a bearish divergence if the ETF makes a new high.

This update also said to watch for a new daily high, finishing with this:

“Before anyone gets overly bullish, let’s also keep in mind, the high print at the left of the chart in October of last year, is still below the print discussed in this post. over four years ago (not advice, not a recommendation).”

With today’s price action we could be ticks away from that anticipated new daily high (above the 2/20, 52.91).

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Note the typical (average) 50%, retrace between blue lines, that was then followed by a deeper 61.8% retrace, from blue to magenta lines.

The last deep retrace to 61.8%, tells us supply is building even though price continues higher.

Best case scenario: Next session opens gap-higher, clearing out stops (buy and sell), creating price action instability (not advice, not a recommendation),

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Going Short … In Style

March 10, 2025 By in Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Great Depression 2.0, ZeroHedge Tags: , , 1 Comment

Knowing When, To Be In Fashion

Out in the mainstream, they tell us the smart money (maybe, even retail) is selling, or selling short, here, here, here, here and here

There’s also recession talk, here; couple that with utter confusion, here.

Then, if we do have a ‘recession’ (or depression) it’s time to blame somebody, right?

As Dr. Elder said years ago (paraphrasing):

‘When there is a change the market, there’s a lot of turbulence before action settles into a definable trend.’

Taking everything in aggregate above, that could be where we are now.

In Style

Some of the links above, are still attempting to make a bullish argument.

For them, it’s not quite time to have a bearish stance. It’s not yet fashionable.

For this site however, every trade (453 of them) for last year, 2024 (ex. UNG), was to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

By the time, the bear has fully clawed the market (if or when), it’s most likely too late for any low-risk positioning.

One market that may be acting as a defensive move, are the miners, GDX, GDXJ.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

GDXJ, is either slipping away to the downside or it’s preparing for another attempt at higher prices.

At this point (1:12 p.m., EST), the support/axis line has not been decisively penetrated to the downside, suggesting probabilities are for higher prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Before anyone gets overly bullish, let’s also keep in mind, the high print at the left of the chart in October of last year, is still below the print discussed in this post. over four years ago (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trump’s ‘Not Looking’

March 7, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 1987, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-04, LABD, LABD-25-02, Positions, SPBIO 3 Comments

Not Political … Just Fact

The last time we had a sustained multi-year meltdown (’07 – ’08), there was a ‘ban’ on short selling.

Since Trump is ‘strictly business’, will he try (or instruct the SEC) to save the market?

Based on this link, maybe not (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that’s true and there are no ‘saves’ this time around, then we’re in uncharted territory; at least since the ’87 crash.

Gold Miners ‘Bid’?

The rest of the market’s breaking down, but the miners are holding steady (sort-of). They look like there’re headed for at least one more push higher.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

We’re including the MACD, to show if there’s a new high above the 53.00 – level, it sets-up a (potential) bearish MACD divergence.

This coming Tuesday, is Fibonacci Day 8, from the February 28th lows.

Positioning

The short trade JDST-25-04, was stopped out early in the session. No other shorts are planned for this sector … yet (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short trade in biotech XBI, remains active as LABD-25-02, with stop at LABD 7.44 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Hang In Thin Air

March 6, 2025 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-03, Positions, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Push Above Resistance … Then Stop

As of this post (12:35 p.m., EST), the miners GDXJ, have pushed above resistance area noted in yesterday’s update

Then, they stalled.

With a backdrop of gold in the news incessantly, is there a short trade at this juncture?

Whether or not this is the place to make the bet remains to be seen. However, what we can see, is a push above resistance (Wyckoff Up-Thrust) and a narrow range bar.

That means short-side risk has been reduced (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Short initiated via JDST, as JDST-25-03, with stop at the session low, currently JDST 19.93 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s (terminating) Wedge

March 4, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, Inflation, SLV

At The End of The Move

A ‘terminating’ wedge, typically comes at the end of a move whether up or down.

In the case of silver (SLV), that wedge has formed during an up move, giving us a hint, the next significant direction may be down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Weekly

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

We’re coming up on the one-year anniversary of the hyperinflation breakout hysteria; remember that?

An entire series of posts was created on silver SLV, to show that for one, it’s not in a hyperinflation breakout, and two, historic price action suggests SLV projects to either a downside reversal, or sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

In about one year, SLV moved from $24.49, to yesterday’s $28.75; hardly a launch to $100/oz. – $500/oz., or more.

The Caveat

An SLV, post above last week’s high of 29.61, is a potential negation of the above analysis.

With that said, the wedge appears to be in-effect for now.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Reduce (short) Risk

March 3, 2025 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-02, Positions, Wyckoff

Less, Does Not Mean, None

When you’re at price extremes whether up or down, many times the ultimate direction is unknown.

You’ll know when you’re at that (on-the-edge) spot, if it’s like Wyckoff’s description from over a century ago:

‘It’s as if the weight of a feather can move the market in either direction’

The good part, today’s potential-now-actual scenario, was previously covered in this update:

“What we’re looking for in the coming week (best case) is to see continued GDXJ, upside to close the distance to the resistance area; thus reduce (but not eliminate) the risk.”

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly

Actually, the risk is probably less than the 0.82-pts shown.

Price action would need to continue through resistance (blue line) to get to the stop; possibly giving ample time to exit a short if so positioned (not advice, not a recommendation).

As can be seen in the side-bar, a short has already been opened; executed early in the session using leveraged inverse fund JDST.

Trade: JDST-25-02, with stop at today’s low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Against The ‘Spin’

Positioning short is against the current mainstream ‘spin’ on why this sector has not launched higher.

You’ve heard it before, they call it a ‘buying opportunity’

This site refers to the non-confirmation of the miners (with gold at all-time highs) as “something wrong” 🙂

We’ll know soon enough.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Something’s Wrong

March 1, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-01, Positions 1 Comment

Gold To New Highs … Miners, Not

Gold continues to new all-time highs while miners post lower highs.

Something’s Wrong

It’s as if each new gold (GLD) high gives the excuse to take profits on GDX, GDXJ, or go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, with gold at (or near) new highs, Junior Miners GDXJ, have attempted to breakout above resistance twice, and so far, have failed.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

The last update on GDXJ was off by a single day.

The next day, one more new daily high before reversal; short trade JDST-25-01, was closed early in that session (not advice, not a recommendation)

Note the tight price action just above resistance in the ‘2nd Attempt’; evidence of a struggle.

What we’re looking for in the coming week (best case) is to see continued GDXJ, upside to close the distance to the resistance area; thus reduce (but not eliminate) the risk.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners, Where Risk is Least

February 19, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-01, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-07, SOXX 2 Comments

Downside Pressure

When price action’s at The Danger Point®, it doesn’t take much to stop-out a trade.

That’s where GDX, GDXJ, are now (not advice, not a recommendation).

The prior update said to watch what happens during a potential upside retrace.

With GDXJ, so far, that retrace is weak; as of this post (1:30 p.m., EST), now printing lower but still above support.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

For a short position (using JDST), we have a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

The bounce off support discussed in the prior update did not go far before reversing lower … where we are now.

One has to realize we’re back to the pundits screaming ‘hyperinflation’ as was the case over four years ago.

Gold (GLD) may indeed move on to higher prices.

However, for whatever reason, the mining sector continues its multi-year non-confirmation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions

Short entry on GDXJ via JDST as trade JDST-25-01, with stop at yesterday’s session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately: The short in the SOXX via SOXS, has been closed.

If price action continues to exhibit buoyancy, if NVDA posts a new daily high (this week), it’s possible, as incredible as it may sound, NVDA may go on to new all-time highs (not advice, to a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Opportunity Awaits

February 17, 2025 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Michael Bordenaro, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

On The Short Side

It’s been over four years, since this post.

The Junior Miners GDXJ are still below 56.44, the weekly close.

Recall, at the time of ‘what’s wrong’, it was absolute hyperinflation breakout mania (as the links included, attest).

Now, with mass layoffs and terminations, will the ‘stacking’ public, especially the ones in D.C. and Florida begin selling everything that’s not nailed down? What about the rest of us?

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

For long-time visitors to this site, the chart almost needs no explanation (almost).

Last Friday was decisive; outside-down, on increased volume.

We’re right at support (upper blue line). There could be some upside retrace in the coming week (not advice, not a recommendation).

If so, it’s what happens during that retrace that may give us clues as to the next direction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver & DOGE

February 14, 2025 By in DOGE, DRV, DRV-25-06, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, IYR, Real Estate, SILJ, SLV

Gold-to-Silver Ratio 90:1

It certainly is a big number, link here.

The assumption these days, is silver’s ‘along for the ride’.

What ‘ride’?

Does anybody (thinking) think, silver and its green energy grift will survive a DOGE attack?

Asking for a friend. 🙂

Of course, just moments after the article linked above comes out, silver spikes and then gets mercilessly whacked.

The miners, GDX, GDXJ, SILJ reversed as well.

Silver SLV, Daily

If there’s going to be a continued move higher, then price action must exceed today’s high.

It’s at least a ‘line in the sand’ to prove the bears wrong (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, real estate (IYR) reversed to the downside

Discussion on that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279