Category Archives: NVDA

The Other (Bull) Side of Nvidia

February 25, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Cramer, Interest Rates, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

Who’s Is Taking Your Trade?

As a trading professional, you must know (or have a good idea) who’s on the other side of your trade.

Whom are you competing against?

It’s just one of many questions to be asked (along with price action) when estimating the opportunity; whether long or short.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here’s some of what’s on the bullish side of Nvidia, link here.

So, according to the video, tech stocks (and Nvidia) went down because of the U.S. 10-yr Treasury?

Think about it. ‘Likes’ vs. ‘Dislikes’ on that video (as of this post) are over 13:1.

How about this:

Nvidia went down because it posted the largest ever price action down-thrust; then, went through a test of that action, completed the test, then reversed to the downside.

Wow, sounds so clear when put that way. 🙂

With that, let’s get back to reality.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Earnings are scheduled for after-hours tomorrow. Things could get interesting.

In the meantime, we have a demand line and possible channel.

As of this post (10:47 a.m., EST), NVDA has sliced through support at the 129 – 130, level with ease.

We should expect a test of that support. However, at this point, price action is quite weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

As Expected, … Carvana, Crushed

February 22, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, CVNA, Nasdaq, NVDA, QQQ

Using The Nvidia Model

In the after-hours, post-earnings, Carvana spiked to exactly 310, the lower end of the range presented here.

Then, ending the (regular session) week down nearly -22%.

In a similar fashion, Nvidia had its own collapse; down -17%, on ‘DeepSeek’ fears.

As always, the question is, ‘what happens next?’

This Plan, or That

From here, literally, anything can happen.

Carvana could continue straight down and implode (not advice, not a recommendation).

It could do nothing and just post sideways action from here; not likely, but it could.

Or, behind Door Number 3, Carvana model’s Nvidia.

That is, finishing its initial downward thrust, then a retrace to test the wide bar(s), high volume.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

On a percentage basis, CVNA has weaker action (which may not be finished) than NVDA.

The ‘Short’ Side

If the market begins a persistent decline, will the SEC ban short selling as it did in 2008, link here.

It’s important to note, immediately after that announcement, the market absolutely cratered on massive volatility; the Qs dropped over -41%, from that point.

This time around (if it happens), with a new Sheriff, will there be a short-selling ban?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … The Path of Bubbles Past

February 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX

Modeling The Dot-Com

Nvidia looks like it’s rolling over.

There was an early morning ‘blip’ to the upside that was quickly retraced.

Known & Unknown

Some things are known.

We know Nvidia printed the largest-ever, downside thrust energy during the breakdown, January 27th.

Then came the process of retrace and test.

Also known (see chart) upside energy, i.e., Elder’s Force Index, at this point, has dissipated to almost nothing; suggesting the test is complete or near complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

At this juncture (12:18 p.m., EST) Nvidia is just 0.16-pts away from a lower weekly close and reversal bar.

The ‘Supply’ line is of course unknown until there’s more confirmation.

Bubbles Past

If we’re in a bubble, then work has already been done (link here) on what to expect when price action has tested its last to the upside, then turns lower.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Two … Days … Later

February 20, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

A New Daily Low

Nvidia fails to break above Tuesday’s, 2/18 high; instead, prints two (new) daily lows in a row.

In addition, if this action holds, it’s now posting a weekly reversal bar.

This analysis, link here, was early in its assessment.

With new daily lows and potential weekly reversal, probabilities favor continued downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Price action opened higher … therefore painting probabilities for more upside (as postulated in yesterday’s update); it didn’t happen.

So, we’re at the potential right side of a channel. The two magenta arrows show contact points

If this channel is in-effect (i.e., correct), then demand, the lower channel line, is a long way away.

Positioning

Naturally, with all of the above, a short was opened early in the session via SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade: SOXS-25-08, stop at the SOXS low, for the day.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners, Where Risk is Least

February 19, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-01, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-07, SOXX 2 Comments

Downside Pressure

When price action’s at The Danger Point®, it doesn’t take much to stop-out a trade.

That’s where GDX, GDXJ, are now (not advice, not a recommendation).

The prior update said to watch what happens during a potential upside retrace.

With GDXJ, so far, that retrace is weak; as of this post (1:30 p.m., EST), now printing lower but still above support.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

For a short position (using JDST), we have a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

The bounce off support discussed in the prior update did not go far before reversing lower … where we are now.

One has to realize we’re back to the pundits screaming ‘hyperinflation’ as was the case over four years ago.

Gold (GLD) may indeed move on to higher prices.

However, for whatever reason, the mining sector continues its multi-year non-confirmation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions

Short entry on GDXJ via JDST as trade JDST-25-01, with stop at yesterday’s session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately: The short in the SOXX via SOXS, has been closed.

If price action continues to exhibit buoyancy, if NVDA posts a new daily high (this week), it’s possible, as incredible as it may sound, NVDA may go on to new all-time highs (not advice, to a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

3.3 Trillion … NVDA, Reversal

February 18, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-07, SOXX 1 Comment

Closing The Gap

Is now, when everybody starts running for the exit?

The last update (link here) left with the question as to whether or not, the ‘gap’ would be closed.

Well, today’s action closed that gap.

Now, we’re in a potential reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, 4-Hour

We’re using the 4-Hour chart as it gives better detail.

As of this post (3:34 p.m., EST) NVDA has formed a 4-Hour reversal bar that so far, is not being challenged.

The index, the SOXX is reaching an (upside) extreme as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Bull/Bear Struggle

February 12, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-06, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The Pattern Repeats

Time for the ‘bag-holder’, shakedown?

One thing that can be said, big-cap Nvidia, is posting a repeating pattern:

Wyckoff ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

As long as NVDA, closes lower for the day, it’s at risk of downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The repeating set-up is labeled: No. 1. (spring) and No. 2. (up-thrust).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We still have the ‘break-away’ gap posted on January 27th (not labeled), creating the unknown; will this gap be filled?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Hanging by a Thread

February 2, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-04, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Below Support, and Slipping

Does one downside gap, beget another?

The gap-lower open Monday, January 27th, was only retraced by a Fibonacci 23.6%, the next day before continuing lower.

If that percentage holds, it’s a rare occurrence and represents extreme weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart for NVDA, shows we’ve had the largest down-thrust energy in history (NVDA began trading 1/22/99).

Now, it’s hanging below resistance (blue line).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Last Friday closed lower; after-hours, lower, still.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

As the ‘About‘ section says, techniques on this site are laid out by three masters and coached, mentored, by one of, if not the best in the industry (the late David Weis).

With that said, everyone has their own style.

Currently short the sector via SOXS, as SOXS-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. and The Bubble ‘Wrap’

January 31, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXS-25-04, SOXX

Summary of Bubble Action For The Week

For A.I., the SOXX, and Nvidia, the onus is now on the bulls.

The sector managed to retrace 50%, before further upside was rejected during today’s session.

One way to look at this action, if short the sector, today’s high in the SOXX, is an excellent location for a stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

Fibonacci time correlations are shown.

Day 1, the high January 22nd, Day 5, the low on the 28th and today, Day 8 (not shown).

Updating the sidebar:

SOXS-25-03, was closed (yesterday), then re-opened today, as SOXS-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gain on SOXS-25-03, was approximately +16.4%

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. … From Bad to Worse

January 29, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

Adjusting The Trendline

Now, all-of-a-sudden, it’s a ‘thing’:

DeepSeek Breaks the AI Paradigm, link here.

YeaR OF THe SeeK…DeeP SeeK, link here.

The Competency Crash, link here.

DeepSeek AI App Demonstrates Pro-CCP Bias, Influence, link here.

The list is seemingly endless. Time for everybody to pile-on to the new narrative.

However, it does beg the question, Isn’t ‘The Thing‘ somewhere on I-10, in Arizona? 🙂

Getting back to reality, chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, we’re going to adjust the trendline (just a bit) from yesterday’s update.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

The objective is, maintain short, monitor the trend for potential break (and exit), wherever and whenever that may be (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s important to note, yesterday’s action was Spring-to-Up-Thrust; penetration of the prior day’s low and high.

Then, The Fed

Also note, we have the Fed coming up with more shenanigans in about two hours (as of 12:03 p.m., EST).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279