Category Archives: NVDA

Silver’s Bearish Divergence

September 25, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, NVDA, SLV Tags: 2 Comments

Prepare for Hysteria

If you know something’s coming, then you can keep your head when it actually happens.

Nothing seems to bring out the (dollar collapse) pundits more than precious metals and specifically silver; we can throw in Nvidia as well, but that’s another story.

Strategically, Wyckoff analysis all the way back to April, of this year has proven correct.

That is, silver is not launching into some kind of hyperinflation breakout; it would have already done so.

No, silver is either preparing for a downside reversal or sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

We have one datapoint after another, the consumer is strapped; corporations, industries using silver are collapsing, going bankrupt; bullion dealers themselves have said silver demand has evaporated and on it goes.

With that, let’s look at what silver (SLV) is telling us.

Silver SLV Tracking ETF, Weekly

As of this post (10:45 a.m., EST), silver (SLV) is nearing yesterday’s high of 29.44

We’ve got a weekly bearish divergence that will be in effect if there’s a breakout and downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, the question is, what happens if/when we get a breakout?

One thing is almost for sure, the ‘dollar collapse’ pundits, YouTubers et al., will be out in force. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Reversal … ‘Outside Down’

September 22, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, TLT, XBI

When Was The Last Time?

The market gives us clues, we just need to know where to look.

Even before last Wednesday’s Fed announcement, bonds were already heading lower (rates higher), reversing the day before.

Tuesday through Friday had successive lower closes in long bonds, TLT.

All of that, to wind up the week ‘outside down’, or posting a ‘key reversal’.

Those don’t happen often.

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

The last outside-down weekly bar (in an uptrend) was over two years ago.

Bond prices declined 32%, before recovering.

In what seems to be a recurring theme, Force Index (like XBI, NVDA) is telling us there’s little-to-no-energy left to move prices higher (rates lower).

Of course, anything can happen, and reversals can themselves be reversed.

However, if bonds continue lower, it’s probably time to get the popcorn ready to see how the media paints the picture.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Power Goes Out on Biotech

September 21, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Dr. Elder, LABD, LABD-24-18, NVDA, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

More ‘Natives’ Leaving

Like Yogi Berra used to say:

“It’s deja vu all over again’.

Only this time, instead of Nvidia, it’s biotech, XBI.

Nobody’s called on our hapless student at left … no, we’re still pumping out bullish propaganda to the masses.

Anything can happen and biotech could magically levitate to new, more manic highs.

However, the chart below, paints a very sobering picture.

Biotech XBI, Weekly Close

“What do you see?”

It’s been over six months of price action posting and then attempting to penetrate (closing above) the highs of the 101.50-area.

At Resistance: Bulls Exhausted

The center panel is Elder’s Force Index.

It shows (as with NVDA) a succession of force declines with each attempt to push higher.

The last force unit (19.4) has fallen off a cliff, compared to the unit prior (123.7); Force Index down over 84%.

Price action could always grind itself higher.

However, the inference is, the bulls are exhausted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

What’s My (trend) Line?

September 18, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, SOXS, SOXS-24-16, SOXX

Nvidia Rachets Lower

Nvidia is trending down at a fast rate; anybody watching?

The mainstream ever bullish no matter what side, gives us this, link here.

Well, if we’re going to get an October surprise to the upside, it needs to happen soon (not advice, not a recommendation).

While we’re waiting for our ‘surprise’, let’s take a look at Nvidia’s repeating trendline characteristics.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close

The trendlines in the chart are exactly parallel.

If we’re in a trading channel, price action is currently at the far-right side (supply side).

The left side (demand side) channel line is a long way away, and down.

Note: After this post, NVDA, has not closed (or printed) higher.

Positioning

Now that Fed shenanigans are out of the way, mainstream conversation is bound to launch on another round of nonsense.

Let’s just hope we won’t have to keep hearing about it (like the rate cut) for another year, and a half.

With that said, short position on SOXX (via SOXS) remains intact: SOXS-24-16 (not advice, not a recommendation).

It too may have a trading channel. The plan is to cover the technical details in another update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax … At The Edge

September 15, 2024 By in ALLY, KMX, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Wyckoff Masterclass

Just twelve days from now, CarMax (KMX) reports earnings.

With that, we already have the backdrop of auto loan implosions; the cratering of Ally Financial (ALLY), link here.

Everybody seems to be waiting for used car prices to decline; conditions may now be in place to support an auto sector markdown.

Price action of CarMax supports the idea that lower prices, at least for KMX, may be just ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

CarMax KMX, Daily

Right now, and similar to semiconductors, KMX, is testing the underside of resistance.

Numerous Wyckoff characteristics are shown.

First, the up-thrust, with a test.

Then, a decline that includes a wide (modestly) high volume bar; now being tested, as well.

Price action at this juncture, is at a Fibonacci 38.2%, retrace of the entire move starting from the August 26th, high.

Bear Market Characteristics

As with Nvidia and the SOXX, KMX, is posting wide bars, huge gap moves.

In the six-months of price action shown above, KMX, has oscillated in a range that’s 35%, wide.

This is not bull-market behavior.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX at The Crossroads

September 14, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-16, SOXX, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Decision Point

The SOXX, has reached a crossroads.

Shown in the chart below and similar to Nvidia (yesterday), the SOXX, is also at a potential inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Maybe, it’s time to cue up the blues music; it could be an appropriate moniker for the road ahead.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

“What do you see?”

Below, what the market is saying about itself.

If this chart is in-effect, that is, if the market’s ‘respecting’ the trendlines and trading channel, we’re at the spot where one could ask, ‘Where to from here?’

As always, anything can happen and we could somehow, magically, power on higher; probabilities suggest not (not advice, not a recommendation).

Contra Indicators

If indeed, this past week was the infection point for Nvidia and Semiconductors as a whole, the euphoric ‘technology‘ conference, might go down as the most significant contra-indicator of the A.I., bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget, those in the know are cashing-out like there’s no tomorrow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Is Today, ‘The Day’, for Nvidia?

September 13, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-16, SOXX 2 Comments

Fibonacci Time Correlations

Scuttlebutt from the Goldman Sachs technology conference, with chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, had at least one journalist (do we still have those?) breathless, ecstatic (paraphrasing):

‘Never has there been so much euphoria’.

These links show how Fibonacci influenced potential, and then confirmation, of the all-time top and reversal.

As we’ll see below, price action continues with Fibonacci.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

This week, is ‘Week 13’, from the all-time high.

Fibonacci correlations continue on the daily.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

So far as of 1:53 p.m., EST, it’s an inside day for NVDA, with yesterday as the potential ‘short squeeze’, retrace high.

Yesterday was also a Fibonacci 5-days, from the most recent low (Day 55).

Retrace High

As is typically the case, the crowd is still euphoric (maybe even more so) long after the high.

This is typical ‘bubble’ behavior … the party goes on (even harder) as the ship goes down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia’s ‘Power-Play’ … Part II

September 12, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXS-24-16, SOXX, ZeroHedge

Wide Swaths of Instability

The last report on Nvidia, link here, nailed-it.

It said that demand had evaporated as seen by Force Index (thrust energy).

Nvidia went on to plunge over 15% before yesterday’s (what must have been a) short squeeze.

Coupled with that, was short trade (SOXS-24-15) in the Semiconductor Index (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday, pre-market action (being short) for SOXX, did not look right; that position was exited just after the open.

Net profit for SOXS-24-15, was about +23.25%.

The whole scenario shows the importance of having the price action itself dictate the trading action.

The squeeze ‘excuse’ was the CEO of Nvidia giving a speech, then going off to sign women’s breasts … I’m not making this up.

All of which brings us to the chart.

We’re keeping the same Fibonacci 8-Day timeframe as the previous update.

Nvidia NVDA, 8-Day

There’s a lot going in with this chart.

First: Price action has become wide and unstable.

Second: The completed 8-Day, bar posted the deepest downside thrust energy ever.

Positioning

Once again, everyone has their own method and style.

With that, understanding where we could be in this market environment, i.e., the throws of reversal, another (tentative) short was opened in the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop on this trade (SOXS-24-16) is very tight … to be set near the (SOXS) lows of the session.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Downside Targets

September 6, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX

The Bears Take Control

Just like the image at left, Nvidia looks like it’s ‘strapped in’, for the ride down (not advice, not a recommendation).

The upside doesn’t last forever and neither does the downside … unless of course, you go bankrupt. 🙂

With that, let’s see where Nvidia may be going.

Note: Recall, the potential for a top, was identified two weeks ahead of time, then confirmed.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

We’ll cut straight to the chase and show how price action is ‘respecting’ the Fibonacci projections (thus far).

With price action in the SOXX, confirming yesterday’s trendline ‘artistic license‘ post, at this point, it appears the downside for the sector is well underway (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

September 3rd, 1929

September 3, 2024 By in 1929, Artificial Intelligence, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Holiday Turns, NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX

Top of The Market

Market Crash, 1929

Market reversals tend to occur just before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Is that where we are now?

Semiconductors (SOXX), and it’s chief cook and bottle washer, Artificial Intelligence (NVDA), may have already decided the next direction … down.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

It’s just after the open and this is where we are.

“What do you see?”

Marking up the chart, we have a sell-short indicator (not advice, not a recommendation) right along with a hard stop location (as shown).

From yesterday’s update, those that watched the presentation by Robert Prechter Jr., were challenged with the idea, we’re in the largest bubble ever or at least since the 1720s South Sea Bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

In the sidebar, we can already see a short position was opened during last Friday’s session: SOXS-24-15 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Everyone has their own style and for me, I detest ‘chasing’ the market.

I’d rather make several attempts, get stopped out, then enter again, than watch the opportunity take off because I was too afraid to pull the trigger.

It’s only 20-minutes after the open and we can see the SOXX, is down hard.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279