Category Archives: Ox Talks

Real Estate Breakdown

May 17, 2026 By in Bonds, DRV, Interest Rates, IYR, Ox Talks, Real Estate, TLT

Bond Market Catalyst

The bond market’s on fire; yields screaming higher, bond prices lower.

Since the end of the forty-year bull market (TLT) in 2020, the view on this site, has been consistent.

That is, ‘unless there’s a market melt-down and even if there is, bond prices are likely to remain under pressure’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

That sentiment, recently echoed by Ox Talks, link here (Time Stamp: 6:40).

All of which, brings us to real estate.

Real Estate ETF, IYR, Daily

There were twenty-days struggling at resistance, forming a terminating wedge.

Day 21 (this past Friday) was the breakout to the downside.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Regional Banks … Breakdown

May 14, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Banking, KRE, KRE-26-01, Ox Talks, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

End of The Test?

All eyes seem to be on reports like this, as if it’s a good thing while the nerdy kid in the back, is frantically waving, trying to get everyone’s attention.

All you need to know, link above, is in the first 55-seconds.

‘There’s never been a run like this’

It’s ok, this rally has legs because we’re believing the misconception, earnings move prices … so, all is well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, Back at The Bank

‘Ox Talks‘ has been relentlessly covering the truth; that truth is, the A.I. (and credit) narrative is imploding in real time (not advice, not a recommendation).

Which brings us to the banks.

The chart of Regional Banking ETF, KRE, shows what might be happening.

S&P Regional Banking ETF, KRE, Weekly

The Interpretation:

Wyckoff up-thrust in February, followed by ‘sign of supply’ in March, then up for a test.

We’re on a weekly timeframe; whatever happens has the potential for some duration.

With the breakdown, the test appears to be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike, Goes Vertical

May 8, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, CRWD, CRWD-26-01, Ox Talks

While The Narrative Unravels

Yesterday’s update on CrowdStrike, said that Fridays were typically biased to the upside.

Well, that’s what happened and a bit more than expected.

A.I. Narrative Blow-Out

Before getting to the chart, a reminder the A.I. narrative’s unraveling in real-time, big time, links here, and here (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart shows going vertical into the close of the day.

Note the resistance zone.

CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily

As shown, volume and Force Index contract as price action rises into the resistance area.

We’re now on to the weekend.

One has to wonder, what A.I. implosion will happen next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver: Crash of ’08, and Now

April 11, 2026 By in 1987, 1998, 2000 - 2001, 2007 - 2008, Bubba Trading, David Lin, Gold & Silver, Ox Talks, SLV Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Possibilities for The Present

Is it the same as ’08, but worse?

For old-timers who were there during the crash of ’08, and ’00, and ’98, all the way back to ’87, the pattern of ’08, was different.

During the ’08 crisis, you could see (and feel) in real time, how the burden was transferred by decree, to the public.

Along with that, was:

‘If this thing somehow manages to pull out, the next time (and there will be a next time) there’s no saving it’.

Re-Visiting, ’08

Data’s accumulating, building the case, we’re back to the ’08 playbook (not advice, not a recommendation).

2008 All Over Again- Jamie Dimon Says Defaults Are Coming, link here.

They Rebuilt the 2008 Crash Machine — And Put It In Your Retirement Account, link here.

‘I Expect Something Similar To 2008’ Warns Trader | Todd Horwitz, link here.

Memory Lane

Just a reminder of what it was like back then, this link.

Flash Crash ’10

Since we’re building a case, let’s throw in this, link here.

‘all the way down … 79s are tradinggggggg…’

Silver Then, Silver Now

So, how did silver behave during that blow-up in ’08. Did ‘everybody’ flock to safety?

The short answer is no. Silver got hammered; down nearly 60%, right along with the rest.

Only afterwards, did it launch into a bull move. All of which, brings us to today.

Silver Tracking ETF, SLV, Monthly

Looking at the chart, one can immediately understand what’s being suggested (not advice, not a recommendation).

A decline of 60% from the January 29th, high, puts SLV in the vicinity of 43 – 44 (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX: Reversal & Retrace (so far)

March 2, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, SOXX

What’s Next?

The price segment at left, shows the SOXX reversing from all-time highs, lower into minor support, then retrace.

That move is in line with the Nvidia reversal on its earnings release.

As we’ve heard many times (Ed Dowd, Ox Talks and others), just the hint of slowing sales may be enough to kick off a sustained downside move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow is ‘Day 5’ from all-time highs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AIG … Higher, New Target

February 27, 2026 By in AIG, AIG-26-01, Ox Talks, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

A Familiar Scene

AIG, did not reverse as anticipated, link here.

Short position, AIG-26-01, was closed out with a tiny loss.

There are fundamentals a-plenty, link here, to surmise that AIG’s on borrowed time (not advice, not a recommendation).

From the chart, it’s been five successive weekly highs, and higher lows.

With the knowledge a reversal can happen at any time, looking at the chart with its ‘spring’ condition, what’s the next (most likely) target?

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Breakdown

February 26, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust

Is This It?

Is the A.I. story, over?

As Ox Talks says here, the never-ending, upward move on any kind of news, may finally be at an end (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking at the chart, we see after all-time highs, price action drifted sideways for months.

The deep retrace before the false breakout, gave a clue that supply was building.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AIG … Gap Filled?

February 24, 2026 By in AIG, AIG-26-01, Ox Talks 2 Comments

What Happens Next

Back on January 6th, we had this from ‘Ox Talks’.

The question is:

Has AIG effectively filled the gap?

According to the link above, management has tossed out (or about to), the CEO that nursed the company back to profitability (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike … Tests Breakdown

December 19, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CAT, CRWD, Ox Talks 1 Comment

Similar to Caterpillar

Our favorite chief, cook, and bottle washer of the negative P/E, currently standing at -379, is about the same as the last update.

The difference from then, is that price action has got itself into a potential test of a wedge breakdown.

Ever since the ‘update glitch‘ wipeout, it’s never been the same for CRWD.

CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily Close

Yesterday’s action closed higher. So far today, trading is continuing the move.

It’s important to note that volume is not remarkable; meaning, the last high-volume day was at the earnings release on December 2nd, and 3rd.

Unlike CAT, in the prior update, we don’t have a decisive indicator (volume) for a trend break (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s as if CRWD, is banging around (with low volume), trying to find a direction.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Comments’ for The Week

November 22, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Comments, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, SOXX

Progression of Thought

The following links are a summary of market related comments (made on other channels or platforms) for the week.

This past week has been interesting, with potential kick-off, of the A.I. implosion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tuesday

The crash of 1899 was in December. So, it’s happened before … (link here).

Wednesday

Tomorrow will (likely) be an interesting day. For the SOXX, a move above or around 294 – 296, will likely take out the shorts. (link here)

Thursday

Nvidia has already peaked (October 29th). Today’s action was a ‘test’ of that reversal. Watch to see if NVDA closes lower for the day. (link here)

Summary

The SOXX, never made it to the target range. Highest print for last Thursday, was 289.99; then, it collapsed.

Nvidia action for that day looked like a test; then closed lower for the day … then lower again, the next day.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279