The increase in volume is (potentially) either absorption of sellers, getting ready to move higher, or distribution with the ‘manipulators’ holding up the SOXX, so that sell, and sell-short positions are opened (not advice, not a recommendation).
Either way, it looks like something’s about to happen.
Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close
A new daily high, points probability to the upside; new low, the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As the chart shows, the SOXX has been struggling for weeks in the resistance zone.
From that chart, one question to be asked, did the overnight and early session fill the gap?
The other question, did the Nvidia earnings release change the dynamic of the sector?
Reading price action since then, in real time, the answer seems to be yes (not advice, not a recommendation).
Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly
As of this post (10:35, a.m., EST), the SOXX is struggling to post higher … but it’s not happening.
There’s a lot of congestion around the resistance zone. In Wyckoff terms, he calls this price action ‘Cause’.
Meaning, that if we break materially lower from here, it’s called ‘Effect’.
His point being, since there’s sufficient cause for a sustained move, if/when it happens, we’re to expect a corresponding effect (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Remember, markets typically move in the opposite direction first after the Fed, then resume their main trend.
On Friday, markets were generally higher on interest rate hopes. It’s called ‘hope’, as the Fed’s not actually done anything.
Let’s word that more accurately. The bond market has not (yet) told the Fed to lower rates. When it does (if it does), they will follow and present their case as if they are leading the market.
Decades ago, Robert Prechter Jr., in a research paper, proved this point. More recently, Ed Dowd repeats the fact, link here (time stamp: 37:48).
Markets were higher, including the SOXX, covered here, and in this update, airline sector Delta (DAL).
Delta Airlines, DAL, Daily
If there’s any one chart showing why this site primarily works the short side, this is it.
The last major move was an impulse downward, taking less than three-months.
The corrective move against the trend, has so far been nearly five months in choppy overlapping action.
DAL, finished on Friday at the Fibonacci 78.6%, retrace level (not shown). Unless the market decides otherwise, we’re in a terminating wedge.
Currently short DAL, as DAL-25-03, with stop just above Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Weekend Wait
Now, the worrying starts … we can almost write the mainstream media script for the next few days.
Why will the Fed need to lower rates? Is unemployment going to continue higher? What about all the mass layoffs? How will the consumer be affected … and on and on.
As a reminder, ‘alternate’ (real) unemployment numbers are here. We’re already at 25%, Depression era levels.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Trading legend, Richie Naso says the ‘algorithms control the market’.
He also says, they’re trained to go to technical areas.
Are they also trained to ‘count’?
Or does the count just materialize as a natural outcome of controlling the market?
Three days ago, was this post, showing a probable outcome for the SOXX.
Both time, and distance, were projected; time, as in Fibonacci Day 89, and distance as in Fibonacci projection to the 261.8% level (April 7th, lows).
Semiconductors SOXX, Daily
Yesterday, was ‘Day 89’.
Today’s close was below yesterday’s low and below resistance (upper blue line).
The Fibonacci 261.8% projection was to (approx.) 259.
Yesterday’s high was 255.06, a difference of just 1.54%.
Currently short, as SOXX-25-11; hard stop at the session high (not advice not a recommendation).
Separately, XBI-25-01 was closed as it continued to edge higher. Today is XBI’s own ‘Day 89’ from the April 9th, lows (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 