Category Archives: SOXX

Making (position) Adjustments

August 25, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DAL, DAL-25-03, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-12, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 4 Comments

SOXX Closed, DAL Closed XBI, Open

What we’re looking for from a short-side perspective, is ‘ease-of-movement’, downward.

Today, only one sector that’s currently being followed exhibited downside ease: Biotech, XBI.

To recap the situation with XBI, were in Wyckoff up-thrust position, first discussed here, then here and here.

Positioning

As stated in the header, SOXX-25-12, DAL-25-03, have been closed.

Biotech (short) XBI-25-03, opened with a stop at the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta’s at The Top

August 23, 2025 By in Airlines, DAL, DAL-25-03, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXX Tags: , , , , 4 Comments

Apex, Terminating Wedge

Was the Fed speech a turning point?

Remember, markets typically move in the opposite direction first after the Fed, then resume their main trend.

On Friday, markets were generally higher on interest rate hopes. It’s called ‘hope’, as the Fed’s not actually done anything.

Let’s word that more accurately. The bond market has not (yet) told the Fed to lower rates. When it does (if it does), they will follow and present their case as if they are leading the market.

Decades ago, Robert Prechter Jr., in a research paper, proved this point. More recently, Ed Dowd repeats the fact, link here (time stamp: 37:48).

Markets were higher, including the SOXX, covered here, and in this update, airline sector Delta (DAL).

Delta Airlines, DAL, Daily

If there’s any one chart showing why this site primarily works the short side, this is it.

The last major move was an impulse downward, taking less than three-months.

The corrective move against the trend, has so far been nearly five months in choppy overlapping action.

DAL, finished on Friday at the Fibonacci 78.6%, retrace level (not shown). Unless the market decides otherwise, we’re in a terminating wedge.

Currently short DAL, as DAL-25-03, with stop just above Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Weekend Wait

Now, the worrying starts … we can almost write the mainstream media script for the next few days.

Why will the Fed need to lower rates? Is unemployment going to continue higher? What about all the mass layoffs? How will the consumer be affected … and on and on.

As a reminder, ‘alternate’ (real) unemployment numbers are here. We’re already at 25%, Depression era levels.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will The SOXX, Unravel?

August 22, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 1987, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Positions, Richie Naso, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-12, SPBIO, XBI, XBI-25-02 3 Comments

Right Out of Naso’s Playbook

‘Think like a criminal’, is one piece of advice from trading legend Richie Naso.

He also describes the algorithms as not caring about profit or loss, but ‘liquidity’ and ‘volatility’.

This morning’s session had plenty of both.

Looking at SOXX price action, launching higher on the Fed speech, it’s clear what the algorithms were attempting.

That is, hit the stops hiding at ‘technical areas’, as Naso calls them.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

Price action went to where stops were hiding or where the inexperienced traders panicked.

Under such conditions, what’s the appropriate action?

Sell, or sell short (not advice, not a recommendation).

From this site’s perspective that’s exactly what happened.

Currently short the SOXX, as trade SOXX-25-12, with the stop at (or to be) the session high.

Which One to Pick?

As the last update said, the stop on biotech XBI-25-02, was at the August 18th high. Obviously that position was stopped out.

The question is, why not re-enter again short?

The answer: XBI made new daily highs where the SOXX did not. SOXX did not print above its high set on August 14th.

Therefore, at this juncture, SOXX is posting more relative weakness than XBI.

The market itself directs the trading action.

Revisiting August 1987

One last thought: August 25th, 1987, was the date of the all-time highs back then. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Stop & Drop

August 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Positions, Richie Naso, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-11, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XBI, XBI-25-01 2 Comments

Fibonacci, ‘Day 89’

Trading legend, Richie Naso says the ‘algorithms control the market’.

He also says, they’re trained to go to technical areas.

Are they also trained to ‘count’?

Or does the count just materialize as a natural outcome of controlling the market?

Three days ago, was this post, showing a probable outcome for the SOXX.

Both time, and distance, were projected; time, as in Fibonacci Day 89, and distance as in Fibonacci projection to the 261.8% level (April 7th, lows).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Yesterday, was ‘Day 89’.

Today’s close was below yesterday’s low and below resistance (upper blue line).

The Fibonacci 261.8% projection was to (approx.) 259.

Yesterday’s high was 255.06, a difference of just 1.54%.

Currently short, as SOXX-25-11; hard stop at the session high (not advice not a recommendation).

Separately, XBI-25-01 was closed as it continued to edge higher. Today is XBI’s own ‘Day 89’ from the April 9th, lows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mind Games

August 12, 2025 By in 1929, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Uneducated Economist 4 Comments

On A Colossal Scale

‘The are just making it all up’, link here (time stamp: 10:12).

‘Doing it on purpose’ (time stamp 11:50).

The statements were referring to the financial ‘media’.

The ability of the media to manipulate the herd with such ease is shocking and disappointing at the same time.

One has to wonder, was it like this in 1929?

Moving on to the A.I. mania, we have yet another potential high in the SOXX … today or tomorrow (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Tomorrow, is Fibonacci Day 89, from the April 7th, lows.

Another set-up, with Fibonacci target.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Another ‘Bear Flag’, in The SOXX

August 8, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-10

From Hourly, To Daily

The last update on the SOXX, proved to be correct but short-lived.

That post showed an hourly ‘bear flag’.

Now, we have the same pattern on the daily.

Not shown on the chart, today is Fibonacci Day 8, from the most recent closing high.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

As the side bar shows, a short is open: SOXX-25-10, with a tight stop in the vicinity of 243.84 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bear Flag’, in The SOXX

August 5, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-09 1 Comment

Is This (finally) It?

As a reminder, this update said we may be at the end of the short-covering rally from the April lows.

That’s proven to be correct (so far).

From the same update, we have the weekly Fibonacci correlation at 55 weeks between highs.

With that said, let’s look at the chart.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

We’re using the shorter timeframe as the flag is not that easily seen on the daily chart.

Currently positioned short as SOXX-25-09, with the stop at today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

July 27, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-25-08, Gold & Silver, Positions, Semiconductors, SIU25, SOXX, SOXX-25-08

Gold, Silver, & SOXX

Both gold and silver futures have opened lower.

Looking at the silver contract, SIU25, it shows the past two weeks have closed lower.

Last week’s session low was 38.1.

Tonight’s session low (as of 7:38 p.m., EST) is just ticks away at 38.135.

While gold and silver appear to be under some pressure, there’s no definitive trade setup (an opinion), so, we’re going to focus instead on the A.I., mania sector, the SOXX.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily Close

The most recent recovery high and short set-up has already been covered here and here (not advice, not a recommendation).

What the chart shows, is the reasonable expectation, either the SOXX, is going to test resistance (moving higher) like Carvana did, link here, or down to test support.

Currently positioned short as SOXX-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Texas Instruments … Implodes

July 23, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, TXN, Wyckoff

The ‘Go-Forward’, Model?

Is this how it’s going to be when the entire SOXX, A.I. bubble, implodes?

One gap-down, after another?

TXN, earnings, link here, looks benign.

Certainly not anything seen as a material cause for an 11% crash, overnight.

‘Weaker than expected’, does not a forecast, make. Price action could have easily ‘shrugged off’ the ‘weaker than expected’. 🙂

The reality, TXN is down hard with SOXX, down with it.

The probability of reversal for the SOXX, was in price action itself; covered here and here:

This is the crux of Wyckoff analysis.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

From the 7/15 high, to 7/21, high, was Fibonacci 5-Days.

Stop on short position SOXX-25-07, has been lowered from 250.19, to 246.50 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financial Sector XLF … Set-Up

July 22, 2025 By in Financial Sector, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XLF

In The Pattern

Depending on price action, we’ll get into the long-term view of Finacial Sector XLF, later.

For now, on the hourly timeframe, we’ve seen it before: Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

With about forty minutes before the open, it looks as if XLF, will come back up to resistance for a test.

Financial Sector ETF, XLF, Hourly

Spring and Up-Thrust, are labeled ‘S’ and ‘U’ respectively.

In other markets, the SOXX posted lower overnight; it’s trying its best to rally pre-market, into a higher open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279