Category Archives: SPBIO

Market ‘Blow-Up’ … Already Here

March 30, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Hidden Behind The Curtain

It’s got that 2008, feel all over again.

This time, instead of, The subprime crisis is contained”, we have, ‘The banking crisis is over’.

Back then, as the market crashed into ’09, and then forced (manipulated) higher into 2010 and later, you intuitively knew the next time, there’s no saving it (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, here we are … at the ‘next time’.

However, this time around, it’s different … very different.

Coming out nearly every day, is the massive driver to the downside: Biotech. The updated list on that sector is provided at the end of this post.

For this update, we’re looking at the technical condition and more specifically, biotech leveraged inverse fund LABD.

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

We’re early in the session (11:03, a.m., EST) and we can see a reversal (if it holds) developing.

Today, is also Fibonacci Day 5, from the high set last Friday, the 24th.

Since today may be a pivot to the upside (biotech index lower), a potential continuation channel line is drawn in the chart below.

As mentioned in the last update, a retrace was probable and hence taking profits with a partial exit.

During the past four trading days, that position has been re-established at lower prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Insurmountable Fundamentals.

At some point unknown to us, the fundamentals will come into play.

The conditions are insurmountable … they can’t be ignored.

Said many times, this is the driving factor for the market(s) on a go-forward basis (not advice, not a recommendation).

Latest on The Biotech List

We’re going to start first with an article that surmises, the blow-up has already happened. That article is here. The report starts off with profanity; be advised.

Then, the biotech list; growing without bound:

Risk Of Cardiac Death Tripled For Young Women Following AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccination: Study

Bombshell Vax Analysis Finds $147 Billion In Economic Damage, Tens Of Millions Injured Or Disabled

CDC Found COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Signals Months Earlier Than Previously Known, Files Show

Three Years To Slow The Spread: COVID Hysteria & The Creation Of A Never-Ending Crisis

Biden Signs Bill To Declassify COVID Origins Intel

“I Couldn’t Remain Silent”: Physician Assistant Fired For Reporting COVID-19 Vaccine Adverse Events To VAERS

A Haunting Anniversary – ’15 Days To Slow The Spread’

Bonfire Of The COVID Vanities

Judge Rejects Request From Moderna, Moving Key COVID-19 Vaccine Case To Discovery

Betting All On Hegemony; Risking All, To Stave Off Ruin

CDC, FDA Respond To Florida Surgeon General’s COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Alert

WHO Chief Says Quest For COVID Origins Remains “Morally Imperative”

Italy 2020: Inside COVID’s Ground-Zero

The Forced Medication of All Citizens

COVID Conspiracy Theories Become Conspiracy Facts

Biden Admin Evaluating Mass Poultry Vaccination Amid Persistent Bird Flu Outbreak

Mother Sues Doctor Who Allegedly Administered COVID-19 Vaccines To Children Without Consent

COVID “Not Deadly Enough” To Justify Risk Of Fast-Track Vaccines, Chris Whitty Told UK Govt

Scott Atlas: America’s COVID Response Was Based On Lies

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (Short) Trade Nets + 37%

March 25, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Just Part of The Story

I once had an Uncle tell me:

“Percentages are for liars”

There may be doubters, haters, even money managers reading this and thinking that as well.

So, we’re going to get into it.

We’ll address the ‘liar’ claim, present the current state of biotech along with partial exit of the short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fundamentals: The Rats Scramble

Anyone with two-boosters rubbing together can see the rats scrambling; attempting to ‘normalize’ the abnormal.

For example, it’s now ‘standard procedure‘, after a Pilot’s ‘incapacitated’ (i.e., potentially drops dead) in the cockpit to roam about the cabin and ask if there’s anyone else available to fly the plane.

You can’t make this up. Nothing to see here.

Now, on to the charts.

First: Let’s Review

The chart re-printed below, is how it looked this past February 9th, as presented in this post. Recall, the actual reversal was identified to-the-day, in this post.

To go even a bit further, the Wyckoff penetration set-up was identified a day earlier, in this post.

SPBIO Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

Re-printed from February 9th.

Fast forward to now. This is how it looked on Friday.

From the chart above, the reversal is well underway.

Momentum has slowed a bit, hence the reason for the position to be reduced by about 13%.

If the decision to partial-exit was wrong and LABD heads immediately higher, there’s still a sizable position open.

If LABD spends the next several days contracting lower (as anticipated), there may be an opportunity to re-acquire the exited position at a lower level (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next chart shows the current trading channel.

It won’t take much sideways to down action to contact the right side. If or when that happens, we’ll see how price action behaves.

Where’s The Lie?

The spreadsheet below, is a modified version of what’s used by my firm. Note, it’s not the actual shares traded but a representation of that action.

The chart has been simplified with the initial entry (of this series) adjusted to 1,000 shares. Subsequent entries are adjusted by the same factor as the initial entry.

For the engineers, the data has been ‘normalized‘.

Working the numbers; we have $43,162.10 initial cost, $59,226.55 at the exit, yielding $16,064.45, which is just over a +37%, gain.

If there’s a lie in all of the above data, the analysis identifying the set-up, the reversal and subsequent trading actions with partial exit, I’m not sure where it is. 🙂

Note: The two left-most rows of ‘zeros’ in the chart are for commission charges. The spreadsheet was developed way back in the day when we had such things.

The right-most row of ‘zeros’ is open profit/loss.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Behind The ‘Other’ Door … Biotech

March 17, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, LABD, SPBIO 1 Comment

Is The Collapse, Happening Now?

Biotech SPBIO, opened lower and has continued lower throughout the day (with 30-minutes left).

Yesterday, this post showed a potential trading channel. Today’s lower action (higher with inverse LABD) appears to confirm the channel.

We need to be mindful though; events are unfolding rapidly at this point.

We’re just minutes away from market closure and going into the weekend … does anyone really want to be positioned long? (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that in mind, the daily chart of biotech leveraged inverse fund LABD, is shown below with a compressed scale.

The first chart has yesterday’s trading channel.

The second chart is the one of concern.

Biotech SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily Close

Yesterday’s trading channel

New, potentially more aggressive channel

We’ll get more information on Monday to see if this new channel is in-effect.

There are still about 30-minutes left in the session and anything can happen.

Either way, we’ve already seen the markets ‘lock-up’ with bad quotes, brokerage outages and ‘disappearing‘ bank accounts.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Market Extremes & Channels

March 16, 2023 By in INTC, LABD, SPBIO 1 Comment

Intel and Biotech

It’s the market’s job to frustrate and bankrupt as many participants as possible.

For the highly competitive alpha, the desire to ‘be right’ and catch the absolute turn, overrides any fear of ‘pulling the trigger’.

That fear is for the timid, over-calculating, fastidious type.

Either way, the market attempts to shake-out one side (the alpha trader) or leave the other side behind (the other traders).

Volatility & Price Extremes

So it is with both Intel (INTC), and biotech SPBIO, with its leveraged inverse LABD.

For Intel, today’s action looked like it would never stop and kept screaming higher.

However, if we look at the daily chart, INTC (at this juncture) has failed to post a new extreme daily high.

The chart shows that each recent extreme has been lower than the last (prices approximated).

Intel INTC, Daily

We’ll see if the next session or sessions will be able to penetrate farther to the upside … or if today was the last gasp before heading significantly lower.

For biotech SPBIO, and the leveraged inverse LABD it was a different story, high volatility.

With that sector, the wild price swings do not make it obvious but there’s (as of today) a nascent trend confirmation and trading channel.

SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily Close

It’s been about six-weeks since the biotech reversal was identified in this post.

A short entry at the location noted (LABD 12.91) would now be yielding an open profit over + 50% (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s easy to see at this point getting in position later, when it’s obvious, sets one up to get whacked on an adverse move like we’ve had over the past four sessions.

After Hours

With about 30-mintues left in the after-hours session, inverse LABD, is trading higher between 0.50% – 1.0% and INTC is lower by -0.38%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Bear Flag Breakout

March 11, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Wyckoff 1 Comment

A Long Way Down

On February 3rd, also represented as; 2/3/23, it all changed.

That was the day the ‘toxic train‘ derailed in East Palestine, Ohio.

It was also the day biotech sector SPBIO, reversed to the downside.

The biotech reversal was identified to the day with the following quote:

” … today’s action is consistent with resolution of the five-months of congestion …”

Biotech had been in a congestion zone, a bear flag, for an incredible five-months. There’s no other pattern like on the chart of SPBIO (ticker, $SPSIBI, on StockCharts).

The analysis stated that if or when this sector breaks to the downside, the extended period of congestion suggests a long, sustained, move lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, here we are.

Now, the downside reversal is obvious. Then again, it’s likely we’re still very early in the move as we’ll see below.

Projection Methods

We’re going to use two projection methods:

First: The standard classical chart which identifies a potential Head & Shoulders pattern.

Second: The century old technique of ‘counting’ via Point & Figure (P&F).

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly (Classical)

Two charts are in classical format. The first shows the trading channel that spans 39-weeks from week 5/13/22, to week 2/3/23.

Note: Let’s not miss the symbolism (also, here and here): May 13th, 2022, was Friday. Then we have 2/3/23.

“For we wrestle not … “

The second chart is a compressed view.

Note the “3,000-level”, discussed in the P&F section.

Biotech SPBIO, Monthly

If the H&S pattern is in-effect and the neckline is broken, we have a measured move projection to the vicinity of SPBIO ~ 1,700 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, on to the P&F.

The ‘P&F’ chart has been used as a forecast tool for over one-hundred years.

The idea is to ‘count’ the number of congestion points and then project that congestion either higher or lower.

In our case of a breakdown, the projection is lower.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Daily P&F

The P&F chart comes up with roughly the same lower projection; approximately 1,700 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking at the P&F, we can see a steady amount of congestion with few breaks, that is, until we get to the left-most area.

There, we have a break of twelve boxes.

In classical P&F terms, that break of 12, indicates the SPBIO may ultimately reach the 1,700 level, but price action could be choppy after the initial count.

That initial count equates to around 3,000 for SPBIO, which just so happens to be an intermediate support level as shown on the Monthly chart.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Breakdown, Breakout

February 26, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Wyckoff

‘The Court Jester’

Court jesters reveal truths like no other.

How appropriate then, that someone who typically plays the ‘village idiot’ comes out with the truth.

Whether the ‘false narrative’ is finally crumbling or not, is not directly related to analyzing price action.

It does, however, provide the backdrop.

The ‘Big Reveal’

The last update in biotech had this to say (emphasis added):

“If this is the big reversal and biotech is the downside leader, unfortunately, that could mean a planned ‘reveal’ by the mainstream media.“

What wasn’t known, was just exactly how the truth would come out. Now, we know.

All of which, brings us to the topic at hand: Biotech SPBIO.

It turns out, SPBIO, is trading most consistently, on a three-day pattern.

Biotech SPBIO, 3-Day

In Wyckoff terms, the market itself defines what timeframes and what support/resistance levels are important.

Next up, we’re going to invert the chart to mimic the price action observed on the leveraged inverse fund LABD.

Biotech SPBIO, 3-Day, Inverted

And now, the characteristics of this sector the market itself, has revealed.

At this juncture, SPBIO, trades in a sequence of 3-Days after which, if there’s a directional move, continues on for nine consecutive bars.

After nine-bars, price action typically enters a correction for an undetermined amount of time.

After the correction’s compete the market has (in the past) continued on a directional move for another nine-bars.

Then & Now

We’re currently in a directional move that’s five ‘3-Day Bars’ in thus far.

If the market adheres to its prior behavior(s), we have at least four more ‘three-days’ to go (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note, the current reversal was identified to the day, with this update:

“However, today’s action is consistent with resolution of the five-months of congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).”

The fact the congestion period for SPBIO has taken so long to (apparently) resolve itself, has produced the potential for price action to go farther, last longer than anyone would normally expect.

That move if it happens, connects well with the introduction at the top of this post; a large part of the public has been informed in no uncertain terms, it was all a lie.

The needle, and the damage done.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Short Covering, Into The Close ?

February 21, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, INTC, KMX, LABD, MRNA, SPBIO

Watch For The Weakest

With today’s heavy downward action, as we head into the close, any number of scenarios could play out.

Work has already been done on INTC, KMX, MRNA, Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, and others.

With such a decisive push lower, there could be some kind of short covering late in the session.

For example, as of this post 2:15 p.m. EST, KMX (detailed below) appears to be coming off the day’s lows.

CarMax Weakness

The daily chart has KMX, right a the bottom of a trading channel.

Price action may continue to rebound from this area heading into the close or not.

If there’s a rebound, naturally Put options will begin to decay in value … a desired outcome if one is looking to enter short (at the cheapest price possible).

The bottom of the channel line could be all there is for this week or we could be heading to much lower levels.

It’s up to the trader/speculator to decide (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Bobsled, Starts … Down

February 9, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, IYR, LABD, Positions, Real Estate, SPBIO 1 Comment

Slowly, At First

Of all the major indices for today’s (Wednesday) session, biotech’s SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, had one of, if not the largest gain @ +10.48%.

The last update identified two sectors to watch for short positioning: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO; Short positioning via leveraged inverse funds DRV, and LABD, respectively (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since that post, DRV is up + 1.74%, and LABD is up + 8.58%, both measured on a close basis.

The ‘Big Reveal’

Remember: When price action turns south, that’s when the bad news comes out.

If this is the big reversal and biotech is the downside leader, unfortunately, that could mean a planned ‘reveal’ by the mainstream media.

Anyone going to alternative sites such as BitChute, ZeroHedge, Rumble, know full well what’s happening.

Maybe we’ll have another distraction like the 100-th (at last estimate) food processing plant fire or even something totally retro, like a balloon flying across … oh, wait. 🙂

Biotech SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD

We’ll get straight to the point as prior updates have built a substantial case for a long term, significant reversal.

Recall, LABD is the leveraged inverse of SPBIO. The daily chart shows the current set-up.

This site does not provide investment advice.

With that said, one could infer from this prior post (at the bottom), a position in LABD had already been established and included a hard-stop.

That was indeed the case.

Next Steps

There’s no guarantee on how far or how long a directional move will go.

However, for SPBIO, one can observe since the February 2021, reversal from all-time highs, a sustained, directional move typically lasts 4 – 6 weeks.

The next update will show the best chart timeframe (multiple days) that resulted in capturing the majority of the directional moves since the February 2021-high.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Moderna ‘Channel’ … Redux

February 5, 2023 By in Biotech, Excess Deaths, IYR, KMX, LABD, MRNA, Real Estate, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, Weekly Wrap-Up, Wyckoff 1 Comment

… And The Weekly, ‘Summary & Strategy’

The last update about our chief cook and bottle washer of gene ‘modification’ had this to say about price action.

“We’re about forty minutes into the session; Moderna (MRNA) has just confirmed the up-thrust reversal discussed in the last update“.

From that point Moderna (MRNA) declined for seven weeks for a total of around – 31.5%.

However, that’s not the most important part.

In that update, a trading channel was shown which at the time, was declining at – 93.7%, on an annualized basis.

Well, the channel is back.

Only this time, probabilities and price action have come together to set up for a potential sustained decline.

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

Above, we have a Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ and a test that has since turned lower.

Next, we have a series of repeating trend or channel lines.

Additional data has modified the downward slope to be declining at approximately – 90%, annualized.

From a fundamental standpoint, the data set is enormous on the events of the past three years.

At some point that data could provide a huge tailwind for downside action.

For now however, let’s stick with what price action is telling us and go to the Summary & Strategy

Summary & Strategy

The past week has identified two areas of position or trade execution and two areas for possible short-term options execution (not advice, not a recommendation):

Position or Trade: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO

Options: Carmax KMX, and Moderna MRNA

As a reminder, most if not all trade analysis is for the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Final Thoughts

Since we have possibly the largest bull trap in market history with huge numbers of VIX Call options, the following week may be subdued by going modestly up, sideways or down, slowly.

With that said, options positioning (if any) could be slated for the week of 2/17/23.

As always, price action is the final arbiter.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biggest Bull Trap, in History ?

February 3, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IYR, LABD, Real Estate, SPBIO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 8 Comments

Slow Descent, At First … Then, Mass Sell-Off ?

The large number of VIX (volatility) Calls, tells us, not to expect an immediate sharp move lower.

Those Calls will likely need to be bled-off in value, before we get a significant downward spike … if there is one.

Market Summary, Watch List

Over the past week, there are two markets that are being monitored for short position entry: Real Estate and Biotech; IYR, and SPBIO, respectively.

After nearly five months of price action whipsaw and congestion, biotech appears to be in a nascent downside reversal. Real estate looks to have reversed today (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech has been the weakest (technically) of all the major indices (except miners, GDX and GDXJ).

We’re going to look at the daily chart of SPBIO, to see the opportunity and the risk.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

Since late September last year, there has been sideways-to-up, price action congestion.

Price action today, appears to have resolved into a nascent reversal.

We’re going to invert the chart to mimic the leveraged inverse fund LABD, showing the opportunity and the risk.

SPBIO, Daily Close (Inverted)

The prior two days of Fed induced bullish short-covering hysteria, have resulted in a decisive penetration of the support level, as shown.

By definition, this puts us in Wyckoff ‘Spring Position’; be on guard for a potential reversal.

Positioning

There have been many false starts to this sector’s reversal as evidenced by previous posts.

However, today’s action is consistent with resolution of the five-months of congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Every trading/speculator has their own style and this site does not give financial advice.

With that said, a (highly leveraged) short entry via LABD, would have a hard stop at today’s low.

At present (2:15 p.m., EST) and entry at LABD 12.91 would have a stop at 12.45, yielding a ‘risk’ of 0.46-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279