Category Archives: $SPSIBI

Market Perfection … Does It Exist?

April 25, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Katie Hopkins, LABD, SPBIO, XBI

When Everything Lines Up

Perfectly Imperfect.

The insert at left, is a picture of the Romanesco Italia Broccoli.

Is it perfect, imperfect, or perfectly imperfect?

When looking at the current biotech chart (below), the same question may be asked.

At this point, Fibonacci correlations are perfect. The counts, the retrace, the channel widths.

The imperfect part is, where the count started.

It was not at the ‘print’ top, the ‘closing’ top, but at the location where there was a ‘change of character‘.

Not In Any Book

There are many books covering Fibonacci; the retrace levels, projections, counting from highs to lows, and so on.

However, I have not (personally) seen in any book, starting a count that was not at the top or bottom of a move.

So, what else could the biotech sector (XBI) be doing this morning, that’s not covered in any book?

Biotech XBI, Daily

First off, let’s not forget why this sector may be down from its highs (February, 2021), as much as it is. This link may help as a reminder.

As the chart implies, the question for the day, or days ahead is, ‘will today’s opening gap-lower, be filled?’

The market itself has shown, at times, it will fill the gap and at other times, will not.

At this juncture (11:20 a.m., EST), XBI has penetrated the prior daily low (of 4/19) and has set up the condition of potential (minor) spring.

Price action’s rising as of this post but appears to be struggling on its way higher.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Stretched … Squeeze … Over?

April 23, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, LABD, SPBIO, XBI

Do We Have A Channel?

How do you know if it’s a countertrend move, or an outright reversal?

Do you stay with the trade or, as Dr. Elder said, ‘do you just take the money and run?’

For biotech XBI, it’s been a nasty two days of upside for any short positions, but the real question is, are we there yet?

Looking at the charts below, you’ll have to decide for yourself.

However, from my perspective, it’s possible that ‘today is the day’; meaning, we may be at the top of the correction (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

The chart is self-explanatory.

From the day a ‘change of character’ was identified to last Friday’s low, is a Fibonacci 21 days.

From that low to today, is a Fibonacci 3 Days.

We’ll compress the chart scale for a bigger picture view of the current action.

Also included is the grey centerline, showing the channel has a symmetrical ‘look’.

Also note, we’re at a 23.6%, retrace at the day’s high (thus far) and price action appears to be eroding downward.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When Fibonacci, and P&F, Agree

April 21, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Wyckoff, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute, XBI

For Biotech, Both Projections Match

When’s the last time you saw a P&F chart on any (other) website or YouTube, channel?

My guess … probably a long time ago, or never.

Even StockCharts, recently revamped their site, removing the landing page option for P&F. It’s still there, but you have to search to find it under ‘more tools’.

If we’re going to be using Wyckoff analysis to determine the most probable direction for the market (and how far it could go), then P&F analysis is part of that effort.

For our biotech example, XBI, we’ve used two projection methods to see where price action is likely to go if we have a sustainable downturn in progress.

Biotech XBI, 3-Point P&F

As a reminder, ‘3-Point’ means before an ‘X’ or ‘O’ is charted (for reversal), the index must move at least 3-points.

Based on the P&F action itself, we have a projection range (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, comes the interesting part, Fibonacci projections.

Biotech XBI, 8-Day, w/Fibonacci

The Fibonacci projections are shown as the blue lines.

The P&F projections from the chart above, are overlaid as the magenta lines.

Of course, projections do not guarantee anything.

At the next open, XBI could launch itself into a upside reversal; not likely, but it could happen.

Wyckoff Cause & Effect

What we’re doing here, is adhering to Wyckoff discipline from his stock market course material (still available here).

No position, long or short is entered unless there is sufficient cause i.e., P&F count for a sustained move.

Note: I have no affiliation with the Stock Market Insitute and do not receive any compensation from them.

In the case of biotech XBI, above, it literally has spent years generating a P&F count; the ’cause’.

The ‘effect’, is the actual move; now potentially in progress.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, XBI … Implosion

April 19, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, Elliott Wave, LABD, SPBIO, XBI

And Then, There’s ‘Elliott Wave‘

We’re heading into the weekend. Who wants to be ‘long’ this market?

Bueller? Bueller?

In the case of biotech XBI, it may have started the ‘dynamic phase’, suggested two days ago, in this update.

Then, there’s Elliott Wave.

Back in the day, while being mentored by the late David Weis, he revealed his ‘love/hate’ relationship with the method.

His quote to me was “Intermittent reinforcement, is a hook”; meaning, it works just well enough (but not profitably enough) to keep you coming back to ‘get it right’ next time … which never comes.

For me, I’m not going to use the approach for trading decisions, but highlight in the case of XBI, we just might have an Elliott Wave structure (not advice not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

If this structure’s correct, a lot can happen on the way to the end of ‘Wave 3’.

Note the XBI, topped-out right at the 38.2%, retrace in March (labeled, as ‘Wave 2’), before reversing lower.

Big In, Big Out

The chart above is a massive structure; years of action to form the top, reversal, counter trend wave, then reversal again, which is where we are now.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Biotech ‘Blip’

April 17, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Was That It?

If this morning’s upside ‘attempt‘ was all there is for biotech XBI, then it’s just a blip on the RADAR screen.

If so, the sector could be entering a very dynamic phase (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s always the chance, price action is slowing to mount another try at the upside.

However, if the trading channel with its trendlines remains in-effect (shown below), lower prices are the higher probability.

Biotech XBI, Daily

At this point in the session (11:42 a.m., EST), XBI has made a new daily low but more importantly, has not made a new daily high.

The ‘blip’ higher at the open, may have been the best chance for a Wyckoff spring to develop; so far, it’s not happening.

The Fibonacci channel previously discussed (here) remains in-effect. This morning’s action appears to be confirming the right side trendline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Close … Biotech

April 16, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, LABD, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Penetrates Support & Stops

The pre-market update had biotech XBI, at its Fibonacci projected move, ready to continue lower.

Indeed, there was a gap-lower open and price action attempted to move lower (below support), but then it stopped, closing the day with a narrow bar.

Anyone who’s a student of Wyckoff, would immediately recognize that description; we’re in spring position.

So, is XBI going to launch higher?

Well, anything can happen.

However, maybe a better description of potential, is that XBI, is in position to attempt to move higher.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Note: Elder’s Force Index for the past two trading days has lost downside energy (middle indicator panel).

This gives some probability of an attempted upside move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Breakdown … Is This It?

April 16, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Dr. Elder, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, LABD, SPBIO, UNG, USO, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

‘Respecting’ Fibonacci … So Far

Before we get started, biotech may have decisively turned the corner to the downside with this, just out … maybe.

‘Zero Respect For Thieves’

Before we get started, with getting started, a brief mention on thievery.

Years ago, Dr. Elder stated he had ‘zero respect for thieves’; those who had stolen his book tile, ‘Trading For A Living’, in various forms.

When you have limited skills and even less insight, thievery is the only way to go … that is, until you’re found-out.

Turns out, the analysis of silver SLV, posted on this site (here and here) nearly two weeks ago, specifically the presence of SLV volume ‘spikes’ at inflection points, may have been ‘lifted’ without citation by a prominent YouTuber (who will not be named … yet).

It may have been just a coincidence. If so, all is well. However, a ‘second time’, not so much. So, let’s all play ‘nice’ shall we? 🙂

Now, on to biotech.

Biotech, XBI, Daily

This update is being released just before the open. It looks like XBI, is about gap-lower.

We see in the chart, XBI, is respecting the Fibonacci projections.

As with the recent oil market analysis and USO, (here and here) we let the market decide what areas are important.

In the case of XBI, and unless significant demand comes in, lower prices appear to be the most probable direction (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

History Repeats & Trendlines

April 12, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

What’s The Market Telling Us?

Every market has its own style.

In the case of biotech, we’ve been attempting to verify a trendline as well as a trading channel.

At this point for XBI, it looks like there are several of each.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We’ll present the chart with lines, channel(s), and let the viewer decide.

The zoom area shows contact points.

Note, the entire channel is a Fibonacci 13-Days, wide.

Add to that, counting from the left channel line to the center line (contact point), is a Fibonacci 8-Days.

Stopped Short

As always, anything can happen.

If I was short this market, 🙂 , where would I put my stop?

A different way to think about that question, is to ask another question.

At this point in the market action, where would the premise of downward reversal (from testing resistance) be seriously damaged or negated outright?

Looking at the chart, one could reasonably say, the answer is yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Globe Life … ‘Vaporized’

April 11, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. John Campbell, Ed Dowd, GL, LABD, Life Insurance, SPBIO, XBI

Is This, The ‘Go-Forward’ Model?

In just one day, Globe Life closes down – 53.14%, on historic volume, over 35-million shares.

No matter the narrative, it shows just how fast a market can implode.

Years ago, while watching an episode of Wall Street Week, with Louis Rukeyser, one of his guests commented on a corporation that released (unexpectedly) bad earnings.

He said … ‘I believe in the cockroach theory. Where there’s one, there’s more’.

Does anyone think Globe Life is, or will be, an isolated incident? This could even be a ‘Lehman Moment‘ and we just don’t know it (not advice, not a recommendation).

Up-coming (potential) problems with life insurance have already been covered; best described in this brief four-minute clip, link here.

The Biotech Connection

The connection between biotech and life insurance can be correlated with this link and this one.

Biotech, XBI, Daily

The chart below, is slightly different from one’s typically presented on this site.

It’s on the daily timeframe but it’s compressed to better show the sector sub-dividing lower.

Yesterday’s Fibonacci analysis may still apply but we won’t really know until we see tomorrow’s action.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Beat Up & Down

April 10, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge

Fibonacci Day 13

Biotech’s been beat up and down so much, you can lose track of what’s really happening.

Include the financial media side-show, and it’s a recipe for confusion and delay.

In the case of biotech XBI, it had a ‘change of character’ on March 21st, then morphed into a trading channel.

Now, it looks like it has a Fibonacci time correlation.

It all sounds complicated, so let’s take a look.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The original change of character, identified in this post.

Yesterday, Tuesday, was Fibonacci Day 13, from the point where the ‘change’ was noted.

It appears, the market used Tuesday, to post the right side (supply side) of the current trading channel.

Of course, there have been no ‘confirming’ hits on that right side so far; we just have one data point.

As the action unfolds, the key is to look for the market to adhere to the channel or tell us that something else is happening (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sorry, No Rate Cuts

That’s news to some.

On this site, it’s been a working premise for over a year.

Remember, back then, it was called ‘The Pivot’:

“Like ‘bread and circuses’, the ‘pivot’ discussion is a distraction … keeping the proletariat placated.”

Now, the man behind the curtain has been exposed, here and here, it may get very dangerous … as if it’s not already.

This post is being released (12:52 p.m., EST) before the Fed minutes. No telling what kind of volatility may, or may not, ensue from there.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279