Category Archives: $SPSIBI

Biotech’s … ‘Axis of Six’

March 27, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI 1 Comment

A Number Recurring Trough Time

You’ll have to judge for yourself if the chart with closing numbers and axis line, are of importance.

As a reminder, let’s not forget where the S&P bottomed, in 2009.

‘The S&P hit a low of 666, intraday’

With that, this update will be brief.

Biotech Sector Index, SPBIO, Daily Close

We’re using the actual index (SPBIO) and not the XBI, ETF, typically traded as a proxy.

After hours (as of 6:53 p.m., EST) has the ETF, XBI, trading unchanged to slightly lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Breakout ‘Uncertainty’

March 25, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 2 Comments

No-Man’s Land

The markets don’t like uncertainly and that’s just what we have with biotech.

As the chart shows, the question becomes; is it a trend breakout, a breakout and test or a breakout, test, then possible failure?

This interview with Ed Dowd just days ago, paints a bearish picture for the overall markets.

If so, and we apply that scenario to biotech, the odds don’t seem to favor the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, let’s get to the action.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Last Friday, the 21st, was Fibonacci Day 89, from the November 11th, 2024, highs.

If the trendline is in-effect, meaning the market’s hanging in mid-air in a false breakout, getting back into that trend may result in some dramatic downside action.

On the bullish side, if it’s an upside breakout, ‘normal’ behavior is for a ‘test’ of the trendline.

Either way, both scenarios favor more downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Bleeds Down

March 23, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-03, LABD-25-04, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI

Loss Of Upside

‘He’s Dead, Jim!’

While we can’t officially declare biotech dead like ‘Bones’ Dr. McCoy, we can say the charts below, paint a less than bullish picture.

The XBI, is so packed full of nuances, it needs at least two charts.

Biotech XBI, Daily

First, apparent weakness.

Price action’s only been able to retrace 23.6%, after penetrating support (blue line) and forming a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

On the far right, just below the magenta line, the grey lines show a minor up-thrust (reversal).

Next, we have a series of spring set-ups, that have failed.

Each time a spring condition is created, price action rises for a brief period, then collapses.

At the far right, the spring (shown in the first chart) appears to have failed; now subdividing lower.

Positioning

During Friday’s session, as price action began to rise unexpectedly, short LABD-25-03, was closed.

Then, late in the day after XBI appeared to have reached its high and reversed, a new short position, LABD-25-04, was opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, the expectation for the coming week, is XBI to continue lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Update & Carvana

March 20, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CVNA, David Weis, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Bump & Run

We’ll cut straight to the chase.

Biotech XBI, pushed all the way up in the early session to close Tuesday’s gap.

Once that was complete, it’s now reversing to the downside.

Bottom line: LABD-25-03, is being maintained at trader’s discretion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately Carvana, has just posted a repeating pattern (chart later): Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

As Fred Sanford used to say. ‘This could be the big one‘ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Gut-Check & Channel

March 20, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

Test of Reversal

Yesterday tested the reversal from Monday’s false breakout.

David Weis used to call such action a ‘gut-check’ to see if you could hang on to your (short) position.

Even so, today could be the more important day.

The question is: Will biotech XBI, post a new daily low, confirming the test or levitate on the next (perceived) health ‘crisis‘.

Biotech XBI, Daily

It’s about fifteen-minutes before the regular open. XBI, is trading lower, giving us a hint, yesterday completed the test (not advice, not a recommendation).

If we get a new daily low, it’s possible there’s a trading channel with pivot point at Fibonacci 21-Days.

Positioning

The side bar shows an active short: LABD-25-03.

As a result of yesterday’s action, the stop on that trade has been moved higher to LABD 7.58 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Hang On To Your Shorts

March 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI

Weaker And Weaker, Still

Look! … Squirrel!

While everyone else is focused on a ‘tradable bounce’ in the S&P, with others in a freak-out on gold, back at the ranch, biotech has continued to sub-divide lower, getting weaker and weaker, still.

Note: All trades presented on this site during 2024 (ex: UNG), and 2025, have been to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The chart highlights the Fibonacci retrace levels.

A Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace is rare; markets typically like to go to 38.2%, or 50%.

If this retrace holds, it indicates significant weakness in the sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

As can been seen in the side-bar, current biotech short is LABD-25-03, with stop at yesterday’s LABD, session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Not shown on the chart, a trading channel that appears to be in-effect.

Update planned for that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … ‘Follow The Money’

March 11, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-02, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

Confirming The Channel … Down

Today’s action in biotech, best describes why it’s the only active short trade; detailed here (not advice, not a recommendation).

This update gave a hint at the expectation; the ‘spring’ set-up would fail.

It was a little bit early … but here we are.

Today (as of 11:29 a.m., EST), XBI posted a new daily low, threatening to post a new weekly low.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The potential channel includes a blue dashed centerline.

A failed move whether up or down, gets the attention of The Street.

Anything can happen, XBI could recover to the upside.

However, there are three successive trendline hits on the right channel line; probabilities for downside, are higher than for up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Then, Alcoa Is ‘Compressed’

March 9, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, AA, Basic Materials, Biotech, CVNA, GDX, GDXJ, Gold Miners, IYM, NEM, Prechter, RGLD, South Sea Bubble, SPBIO, XBI

Another One

Yesterday, biotech had moving average compression; today, it’s Alcoa.

In this case, we’ll present the monthly chart, showing the long-term picture.

As we’ll see, moving average compression is rare, especially when using the longer time-frames.

In the case of Alcoa (AA), you have to go all the way back to 1978, to find a similar event.

The Big Bubble

Referring to Prechter’s analysis link here, he states that we’re [potentially], in the largest asset bubble since the South Sea, over 300-years ago.

Let’s keep that in mind. Events are happening on such a massive scale; the typical observer may not be aware of the significance and/or the rarity.

Alcoa AA, Monthly

The zoom areas are side-by-side to show the similarity.

Expanding the chart and including the wedge notation, also shows price action at the lower boundary.

It should be noted, AA, is part of the ‘Basic Materials’ sector, with tracking ETF as IYM.

Included in the IYM components, is NEM, and RGLD; this sector is correlated with the miners, GDX, GDXJ.

Positioning

It’s the trader’s discretion as what to do at this point.

This site may or may not execute a direct short of Alcoa, just as it might do with Carvana (CVNA), and maybe others (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Moving Average ‘Compression’

March 8, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-02, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Biotech, At The Pivot?

The basic idea around Moving Average ‘Compression’:

The market’s oscillated itself over a period of time, to possible point of inflection.

In the example below, with the weekly chart of biotech XBI, this type of compression is rare.

The last time MAs were this compressed (using 50, 100, 200 EMA) was over fifteen years ago, in late 2009.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

Moving in closer, we have an obvious ‘centerline’, and then potential outer channel lines.

Fibonacci time correlations for pivot points, as noted

There’s also resistance around the 88 – 89 range, to be covered in a later update.

Positioning

As stated in the last update, the short position in biotech XBI (via LABD) is the only open position (not advice, not a recommendation).

The major indices were lower over the past week and ‘normal’ action would be some kind of upside to test.

However, as that last post highlighted, there’s (at this point) no ‘Trump Put’; there are no indications the market will be supported as was done with the ‘Fed Put’ after the ’08 – ’09, meltdown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trump’s ‘Not Looking’

March 7, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 1987, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-04, LABD, LABD-25-02, Positions, SPBIO 3 Comments

Not Political … Just Fact

The last time we had a sustained multi-year meltdown (’07 – ’08), there was a ‘ban’ on short selling.

Since Trump is ‘strictly business’, will he try (or instruct the SEC) to save the market?

Based on this link, maybe not (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that’s true and there are no ‘saves’ this time around, then we’re in uncharted territory; at least since the ’87 crash.

Gold Miners ‘Bid’?

The rest of the market’s breaking down, but the miners are holding steady (sort-of). They look like there’re headed for at least one more push higher.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

We’re including the MACD, to show if there’s a new high above the 53.00 – level, it sets-up a (potential) bearish MACD divergence.

This coming Tuesday, is Fibonacci Day 8, from the February 28th lows.

Positioning

The short trade JDST-25-04, was stopped out early in the session. No other shorts are planned for this sector … yet (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short trade in biotech XBI, remains active as LABD-25-02, with stop at LABD 7.44 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279