Category Archives: TLT

Bonds Down (rates up) … Again

October 10, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT Tags: , , , ,

‘Investors’ Lose Confidence

We’re still in the pre-market (9:13 a.m., EST) but already, long bonds (TLT), are trading lower with rates higher.

The current bond reversal was first discussed in this post.

Part of what was said (then) is to watch how the press paints the picture; that is, to get your popcorn ready.

Cue The Press

So, the ‘press’ has decided that ‘investors’ are losing confidence in the Fed.

Instead of highlighting wrong-think about who is leading whom (hint, bonds are in charge, not the Fed), we’re going to ‘let the trade do the talking’ or the analysis, as it were.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

Back then (September 19th), wedge identified.

Moving on to now.

We’ll propose that investors are not losing confidence in the Fed.

No, we’re in a new paradigm, catching many off-guard; unsure as to what data to believe and how to position.

This site is using the method described in the About section. You’re watching in real time, how that method fares under the current chaotic market conditions.

As Buffett is attributed to saying.

‘When the tide goes out, that’s when you find out who’s been swimming naked’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax … Edge of The Wedge

October 7, 2024 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, IYR, KMX, Real Estate, TLT

It’s A Long Way Down

Carmax is on the edge.

As we’ll see below, its poised to break lower out of a wedge that’s been forming over the past year (not advice, not a recommendation).

Auto loans along with real estate are tied to bond yields; bond proxy TLT, was down again today with rates going higher.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

Bonds TLT, are currently at support levels so an upside retrace (rates lower) is possible.

If that happens, the important part to watch is how KMX, responds (if it does at all).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds … The October Surprise

October 6, 2024 By in Bonds, Dollar, DRV, DRV-24-05, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Prechter, Real Estate, TLT, Usual Suspects, UUP, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , ,

Will The ‘Wedge’, Close The ‘Spead’

Bonds traded down hard last Friday.

With the reversal now obvious (since the Fed announcement, September 18th), we have the usual suspects putting out ‘content’ (here and here) letting you know what’s already happened.

In Prechter’s book, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, he states, being part of the herd, is hard-wired into the brain.

Therefore, it takes diligent, consistent effort, to go against the mindless (limbic brain) herd if you’re going to make an objective observation.

So, let’s do just that, taking an objective look at the potential effects of the bond reversal.

Bonds (TLT proxy) began its reversal, rates higher, the day before the last Fed announcement.

The IYR, reached its high that Wednesday, 9/18/24.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

It’s been nearly three years since the all-time high in December, of 2021. The wedge shown below has been just over a year in the making.

The reversal action of the past few weeks can be seen in the ‘Throw-Over’ area of the chart.

If the wedge has been identified correctly, price action has now entered back into that formation.

Positioning

This post highlighted a short position was on the horizon.

This post confirmed.

This post connected the dots with the bond market.

That same post presented a tentative stop above break even on DRV-24-05 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trend or Not

We may know as early as tomorrow’s session (Monday), if IYR has established and confirmed a downtrend.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Closing The ‘Spread’

October 4, 2024 By in Bonds, David Weis, DE, DRV, DRV-24-05, Interest Rates, IYR, Real Estate, TLT Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

If The Correlation Remains Intact

As the chart shows, real estate and bonds (interest rates) have been well correlated for over three years.

There are times, when that correlation gets ‘spread’; one market goes one way, while the other market goes … well, the ‘other’ way.

That time appears to be now.

Long Bonds TLT & Real Estate IYR, Daily Close

Note how the ‘spread’ eventually gets closed.

Note: The first spread on the left part of the chart took several months to close (completed in late July 2023).

The correlation remained near exact until about January 2024, where it began to diverge again.

Now, we’re spread with bonds heading lower (rates higher) helped along with the latest ‘jobs data‘.

Positioning

If time permits, we’ll go into price action posted yesterday and how this series of two IYR, price bars, yesterday, the day before, are (almost) exactly like DE (John Deere) price action shown by Daivd Weis on his video … except taking it from a short perspective.

Current position DRV-24-05, remains intact; stop now moved tentatively to the DRV session low for today (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Reversal

October 3, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-24-05, Interest Rates, IYR, LABD, LABD-24-19, Real Estate, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Sudden Turn

Watch for failed moves.

When an apparent move fails, it tells you the other side’s exhausted.

That’s when the sharks move in.

It could be happening to IYR, right now; yesterday’s ‘reversal’ bar, has failed (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update on the sector, link here gave a head’s up, a reversal appeared likely.

Now, we have more confirmation with the failed move shown below.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Yesterday, IYR, had penetrated support (blue line) and was in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That spring (set-up) has failed.

Now, it gets interesting.

Bonds (TLT) continue lower with rates continuing higher; the exact opposite of what the public thinks is ‘supposed’ to happen.

Positioning

Naturally, with the above conditions a short was opened DRV-24-05, with the stop at DRV’s session low @ 23.89 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, the short on XBI (LABD-24-19) is not performing as expected. Today is lower but there’s no new daily low (as of 11:55 a.m., EST).

Position was exited with a loss of – 2.48%.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Eyes on Bonds … Rates Higher

September 28, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Michael Bordenaro, TLT Tags: , , , , , , ,

Pulling Back The Curtain

Rates not going lower but higher as reported here, now being confirmed by ‘boots-on-the-ground’, link here.

With rates moving higher now, the next Fed meeting after the ‘election’, seems a long time away.

Exact Opposite

As Michael Bordenaro reported (link) above, ‘everybody’ expected rates to fall because, well, you know … The Fed 🙂

As he states, the exact opposite is what’s happening.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, the curtain’s being pulled back on a lot of things. The Fed’s in ‘control’ is just one of them.

So, let’s take a look at bonds, then and now.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

That was then.

Fast-forward, to now.

Price patterns can dissipate or stay ‘in-effect’.

The measured move target shows where bonds are likely to go, if the pattern stays in effect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, bonds lower, means rates higher.

Get your popcorn ready and let’s watch how the media’s going to spin this one.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Rolls Over

September 26, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Real Estate, TLT 2 Comments

Ruh, Roh

The bond market’s reversed; rates are moving higher.

Real estate’s bid up as if rates are heading lower, not higher; what could go wrong?

It’s been seven consecutive lower closes (rates higher) in the bond market, TLT, starting before the Fed has its conference last Wednesday.

This morning, bonds, TLT have just posted another daily low; if it stays there, will make it a Fibonacci eight days of consecutive lower closes.

Let’s cut to the chase and go to real estate.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

We’re right at the trendline and threatening lower.

Declining volume implies the energy and commitment to higher prices is fading (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Reversal … ‘Outside Down’

September 22, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, TLT, XBI

When Was The Last Time?

The market gives us clues, we just need to know where to look.

Even before last Wednesday’s Fed announcement, bonds were already heading lower (rates higher), reversing the day before.

Tuesday through Friday had successive lower closes in long bonds, TLT.

All of that, to wind up the week ‘outside down’, or posting a ‘key reversal’.

Those don’t happen often.

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

The last outside-down weekly bar (in an uptrend) was over two years ago.

Bond prices declined 32%, before recovering.

In what seems to be a recurring theme, Force Index (like XBI, NVDA) is telling us there’s little-to-no-energy left to move prices higher (rates lower).

Of course, anything can happen, and reversals can themselves be reversed.

However, if bonds continue lower, it’s probably time to get the popcorn ready to see how the media paints the picture.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (fake-out) Breakout

September 20, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-24-18, SOXS-24-16, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

That Didn’t Take Long

It was just four days ago, the mainstream (in this report) was telling us, be on the lookout for a biotech breakout.

That was then … here we are now.

Price action in XBI, attempted to break higher at the Fed announcement.

That move appeared to fail by the end of Wednesday’s session … then came Thursday’s launch higher.

However, that move may have failed as well.

Biotech XBI, Hourly

At this point, we’ve posted a Wyckoff Up-Trust (reversal).

If this is a significant reversal, we’re still in the very early stages; at The Danger Point®

Positioning

As can be seen in the sidebar, a short position was opened (yesterday), LABD-24-18.

That position has been increased in size during this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

The SOXX (short) Exit.

Yesterday, SOXS-24-16, was exited with an -11.6%, hit; so, everyone can see the effects of breaking one’s discipline (not respecting the position stop).

Don’t force the trade … sounds so simple.

Getting back to work, the XBI false breakout was recognized early and the trade opened.

Today, so far, we have follow-through, confirming the reversal.

Bonds Continue Lower

Bonds, TLT, are currently posting an outside-down (reversal) on the weekly timeframe.

The last time there was an outside-down on the weekly, was over two-years ago; week of August 5th, 2022.

After that, bonds declined a whopping 32% before (slightly) recovering.

Now, they’re posting outside-down … again.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Keep Eyes on Bonds

September 19, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT 1 Comment

They’re Calling The Shots

Just like that, bonds reverse; rates higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, it gets interesting.

The mainstream’s already covering; within hours (if not minutes) of the Fed’s move, saying if the economy ‘improves’ rates will have to move back higher; you can’t make this stuff up.

Rates are already ratcheting higher (chart below).

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

The pattern is clear; terminating wedge (not advice not a recommendation).

Pre-market action (as of 8:42 a.m., EST) has TLT, trading down (rates higher) – 0.84 pts or – 0.88%, giving further weight to potential (continued) downside reversal.

Fed Calendar

Looking at the Fed calendar, link here, it’s a very interesting date; ‘the day after’ November 5th.

Let’s see if the ‘rate cut’ is immediately reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279