Category Archives: TSLA

Tesla … Set To Implode

October 8, 2022 By in Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-07, Mass Psychosis, Taleb, Texas Freeze, The Speck, TSLA, TSLL, TSLS, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Watch The Tape

Two-year uptrend, broken.

A year’s-worth of ‘distribution’ from strong hands to weak.

Ten days from now is the next TSLA, earnings release.

With TSLA, price action approaching The Danger Point®, that earnings release is likely to be a catalyst.

The monthly chart has the trendline (and channel) break along with the distribution phase.

Tesla TSLA, Monthly

Note, each thrust attempt higher (magenta arrows) has subsequently failed.

Thrusts following the first one, are at lower levels.

The weekly chart below, shows what we’re looking for; penetration of support to potentially set up a short-trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tesla TSLA, Weekly

When or if that penetration takes place, depending on the depth of the thrust, we’ll have a Wyckoff spring set up … that ultimately is expected to fail.

Ways To Trade

As if on cue and possibly in anticipation of TSLA fireworks, there’s a long and short ETF, for just this ticker.

Released just months ago; TSLS, a 1X inverse (bear) TSLA. The bull side has 1.5X leverage with TSLL.

TSLS, has a 100% maintenance requirement and TSLL, has the same.

Or, one can short directly.

There’s no dividend and the broker used by my firm shows TSLA, has no borrowing restrictions other than a 40% maintenance requirement (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, there are options … we’ll discuss those if some kind of high probability opportunity presents itself.

The Masses

Let’s not forget the herd. What are they doing/saying?

With that in mind, a random check of our favorite holding pen, SeekingAlpha, has oodles of TLSA analysis.

The most recent is actually quite good from a thoroughness perspective. It admits/discusses the downward pressures and identifies the support/resistance levels discussed above.

The problem is the mass psychosis.

It’s the ‘EVs are the way’ mantra as if Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh himself, was communicating directly.

With the winter carnage in Europe just weeks away, we’re about to find out how green ‘electrics’ hold up when there is, well, no electricity.

Back to Biotech

While all of the above is transpiring, the real Black Swan continues to emerge; the latest here, here and here.

This event is happening now; the effects of which will last our lifetimes.

It’s massive and world-wide; likely to override any mainstream (traditional 60/40, type) analysis.

After letting go of the biotech short for the seventh time, two days later, this past Friday, it decides to reverse.

We’ll cover that in the next update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bears Throw In The Towel

November 16, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GOLD, Gold Miners, TSLA, ZeroHedge

A Tale Of Two Bears

Back in the day during the dot-com boom, fund managers were throwing in the towel (‘value’ fund managers, if memory serves) because the markets as they said, “did not make sense anymore”.

Valuations were insane and managers with decades of experience decided the time had come to exit for good.

Of course, it was a contrarian indicator. Those lofty valuations and prices were at or near their peak.

It was not long after when the market cracked. There was a rebound of sorts but the stage was set for a long bear market.

History Repeating?

This is a brief update to document two bear managers that are quitting in separate ways.

One is shutting down his fund entirely. More information linked here.

The other has exited short positions which included getting out of Tesla (TSLA) just before it rolled over.

These types of high-profile events usually happen at or near a significant top.

If the overall markets continue to grind higher, there may be similar retirements and/or fund closures.

Gold (GLD) Update

Before a market can reverse to the downside, it has to stop going up.

Sounds obvious but with the bullish hysteria on gold, coupled with non-stop inflation talk, it may take a while for the bulls to exhaust themselves.

We’re still at the danger point for GLD as well as the miners GDX, GDXJ.

Items of note for the session:

GDX had a double top (same high as Friday) and the inverse fund DUST posted + 0.01, above its own Friday low.

It could mean we’re at the extreme(s) with no more directional thrust or just a pause before continuing with the existing trend.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla Turns Lower

May 17, 2021 By in TSLA, ZeroHedge

5:29 p.m., EST. Updates in red

1:32 p.m., EST

It looks bad on the Weekly;

Even worse, on the Quarterly

Early this year, TSLA spent about seven weeks attempting to move significantly higher.

During the week of February 26th, it gave up and broke down.

Since then, its come up to test the underside of support … now resistance (around 740) before again, turning lower.

Down -37%, since the end of January sounds bad enough. However, it’s the quarterly chart that contains the real horror story.

TSLA has posted a huge 490-point trading range (when taken from support at 78, to current price).

A down move to support from today’s levels, is a decline of -86%.

Markets like to come back and test; better to count on it, than ignore it.

Not saying that will happen to TSLA.

Nearly simultaneous with this first post, we have this article on ZeroHedge about a huge short position.

However, if any real problem does come up like another high profile ‘incident’ (as if we don’t have enough of them already), meaningful support is a long way down.

Just a few hours later, we have this, also from ZeroHedge about a Tesla running over two police officers … in China no less.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Good Short, Bad Short

January 13, 2021 By in Bonds, Dollar, DRV, IYR, Positions, TSLA

Seems like Tesla (TSLA) is always in the news.

Now, we have ‘the big short’, as reported by The Money GPS, doubling down on a possible even bigger short.

Is TSLA a good short opportunity or just a high visibility gamble; or maybe at this point in our history, just another psy-op?

How many minions are flagellating themselves over TSLA, anyway?

From a trading standpoint, TLSA could reverse from here. It could also gap higher into a wedge throw-over. With the weekly MACD showing no signs of erosion, probabilities are about equal.

Bad Short

Now, let’s look at another chart:

Real estate, IYR is showing classic signs it’s about ready to roll over.

Its been struggling for months at the 85-86 area and just yesterday, posted a new weekly low.

Yesterday as well, bonds reversed to the upside. Pre-market activity points to a higher open … solidifying the reversal.

On top of that, the dollar shows a higher open having (downward) tested its up-trend at the last session.

The list can go on but we see the difference.

One is a gamble (or even a psy-op manipulation of followers) and the other is a trade with high probabilities.

Good Short

The table below has current positioning (not advice, not a recommendation):

Special Update: 9:52 a.m. EST. Price action in DRV pushed to stop level and has recovered quickly.

Position is being maintained (for now) with analysis to follow.

Update: 2:21 p.m. EST. IYR looks to be headed to a 38% retrace at approx 84.25, level. All DRV positions exited. Will look to re-enter shorts at higher level, price action depending.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.