Did The SOXX (and A.I.) Just Top?

October 22, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-17 4 Comments

While Everyone’s Watching The Metals

Yesterday, the metals and miners imploded.

While all the focus was on them, back at the ranch, the SOXX reached another top.

Last time we looked, the index had an apparent Fibonacci count that has since been negated.

Robert Prechter said it himself decades ago, ‘price action form is first, then time’.

The SOXX then went on to post a new all-time high.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note yesterday’s bar posted a new daily low after the all-time high.

As the SOXX, oscillated in a narrow range, it became apparent we may be at a significant inflection; three separate shorts were opened, combined into one position as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Pre-market action (7:55 a.m., EST), shows the SOXX trading at 288.09, below yesterday’s low of 289.22.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Banks ‘Rolling Over’

October 21, 2025 By in Banking, Ed Dowd, KRE, KRE-25-02, Ox Talks, Positions, Thoughtful Money

Market Summary, Ed Dowd

The section at left, shows the bank (KRE) rebound from last Thursday’s sell-off, losing steam.

In the early part of this interview with Ed Dowd, he states the banks are ‘rolling over’ as a result of a ‘toxic brew’ of economic conditions (not advice, not a recommendation).

We see that (potential) in the chart.

Adding to that, we have this, from ‘Ox Talks’.

It’s a technical rundown of the latest fraud and lawsuit. Well worth the 17-minutes to view.

That was yesterday. Today, he’s out with more, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Morning After

October 20, 2025 By in Banking, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, KRE, Positions, SLV, UBER, UBER-25-04, XLF, XLF-25-08 2 Comments

Sort Of

It’s not really the morning after but being the day after Friday’s action, we’ll call it even.

Two shorts closed and three opened.

Both the XLF, and UBER, shorts were closed; one with profit, one not. Then, three more opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

As stated in the comments on this previous post, it’s possible the banking index KRE, is not going to make it to Fibonacci Day 34, this Wednesday.

Time counts are always secondary to price action.

Next up, is the silver market.

It’s a no-brainer that something’s ready to break. The press and YouTubers, et al., would have you believe that were finally ‘putting it to the man’. The ‘paper manipulation’ is over, so it goes.

Mabe that’s right this time around.

However, I’ll stick with the market-makers that have been in control since the buttonwood tree. 🙂

More updates to come with charts and positions.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Uber Stalls At The Top

October 19, 2025 By in Banking, Financial Sector, Positions, UBER, UBER-25-04, XLF, XLF-25-08

Wedge & Breakdown

According to this link, Uber is the 95th most ‘valuable’ company in the world.

They’re also a magnet for lawsuits.

When looking at the chart, there’s a top lasting around five months; last week, was the breakdown.

Uber, UBER, Daily Close

Note on the left side of the chart is wild, volatile (unstable) price action.

It then coalesces into a small area (the wedge), with four failed attempts to move higher over this month and last.

Tight price action typically precedes a breakout move.

All of which resulted in positioning short as UBER-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As stated with yesterday’s update, the overnight Sunday session opens later today.

If either the Uber or XLF shorts, present the potential for sustained upside, an exit of both is likely (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bank Bust Ahead?

October 18, 2025 By in Banking, Credit Destruction, Positions, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-08, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 5 Comments

Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?

What if there’s not enough money in the coffers, for a bank bail-out?

Last week’s chaos is still in the ‘next shoe-to-drop’, stage:

Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge 50% As Cracks Deepen Across U.S. Credit Markets, link here.

The Bizarre Bankruptcy At The Heart Of This Week’s Regional Bank Meltdown, link here.

“This Is Crazy”: Goldman Stunned By Regional Bank Meltdown; Its Clients Demand Answers To These 3 Questions, link here.

Wyckoff Had The Edge

The market itself told us ahead of time, something’s up.

The top in XLF, identified here. On the heels of that, literally hours before the Dow melt-down, this post.

Note: The Dow post even suggested potential action:

“From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.”

The Dow pushed higher in the first fifteen-minutes of trade and then collapsed.

Focus Amidst The Chaos

The analysis links above are a reminder; as the chaos increases, focus is to remain on price action itself.

Let the market tell us its (own) next probable direction.

All of which brings us to the chart.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

The zoom area shows at least three contact points on a possible trendline (Wed, Thu, Fri).

Short position XLF-25-08, entered early on Thursday, and pyramided late on Friday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Expectations, Next Week

Obviously, the expectation is for continued downside. We’ll probably know late on Sunday, if that’s likely to happen.

The XLF is labeled as EXTO (extended trading hours) eligible. If there’s even a hint of (sustained) upside pressure, the exit may come as early as Sunday night (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bank Melt-Down … The Start?

October 17, 2025 By in Banking, Financial Sector, Positions, UBER, UBER-25-04, XLF, XLF-25-08, ZeroHedge

Deja Vu

Has the melt-down smoke cleared, or was this week just the first Dominoe to fall?

The most recent post on the banking sector is here.

From that, we had:

“Financial sector XLF, has topped, reversed …”

The initial (nascent) downtrend was broken to the upside; short position XLF-25-07, exited with a small gain.

Then, we had this week.

The sidebar on yesterday’s post, shows a new short; XLF-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The update was about plans before the close. In the final minutes of trade, we have Uber short; UBER-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll discuss both positions with charts over the weekend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Uber … The Wheels Come Off

October 16, 2025 By in Banking, Ed Dowd, GLD, Gold & Silver, KRE, Positions, SLV, TRV, TRV-25-01, XLF, XLF-25-08 1 Comment

Waiting for The Close

Something’s happened to the banks, XLF, KRE; both down hard.

Gold, GLD has launched parabolic, typical of blow-off moves.

Meanwhile bonds are higher (Ed Dowd told us to watch those), insurance companies hit and then, there’s Uber.

Uber, UBER, Daily

Uber at all-time highs for weeks before breaking down.

It’s now penetrated support.

There’s likely to be an attempt to ‘spring’ off that penetration (expected to fail).

If it’s going to happen, watch the close.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I., By The ‘Numbers’

October 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-16 1 Comment

Fibonacci ‘Day 8’

Don’t look now, but today is Fibonacci ‘Day 8’, from the SOXX high, on October 6th.

Let’s also include the panic low last Friday, was Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from that same top.

Of course, the Fibonacci count does not guarantee anything. It just lets us know so far, the SOXX is respecting the sequence.

Then we have the chart.

Last Friday was possibly the largest ever, downward thrust energy for the SOXX (data back to October 2019).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note the thrust energy ‘bookends’.

Not covered in this update, is the condition of A.I., ‘leader’, Nvidia.

There’s so much going on with that one. 🙂

After an attempted breakout during the past twelve trading days, it’s now lower, back in the trading range (bearish).

It’s also established a nascent downtrend line (bearish).

Today’s open was above yesterday’s high. As of this post (11:53 a.m., EST), it looks ready to print a new daily low.

If that happens, it’s ‘outside down’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wells Fargo … Last Gasp?

October 14, 2025 By in Banking, David Weis, Positions, Up-Thrust, WFC, WFC-25-01

Proverbial ‘Gut-Check’

For those fortunate enough to have the David Weis video on ‘Trend Reversals‘, he discusses a particular market characteristic:

The ‘Gut-Check’

Instead of attempting to describe the phenomenon, we’ll just show what a (potential) move looks like with Wells Fargo, below.

Wells Fargo, WFC, Daily

There it is.

Is it a reversal, or a ‘gut-check’ test?

It’s important to note, the ‘Up-Thrust (reversal)’ location was all-time highs for WFC.

Remember, 86.66?

That post is here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Monday’s Damage Assessment

October 13, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Bert Dohmen, BIS, DRIP, DRV, DUST, DXD, FAZ, IBB, JDST, LABD, LABD-25-13, Positions, QID, SDS, SOXS, SPBIO, TZA, XBI

Where’s The Crash?

The YouTube weekend ‘consensus’ was for a Monday morning massacre.

So, where is it?

Bert Dohmen, said it best in this interview, (paraphrasing), ‘If everybody agrees with our analysis, then we have to get a new analysis’.

Monday’s First 15-Minutes

After the first 15-minutes of trade, an assessment was made on the ‘Leveraged Inverse Funds’.

The point being, since this site’s maintaining a short position in biotech (via LABD), how did it fare when compared to the other funds?

After the first 15-minutes of trade, the table at left shows all inverse funds being tracked, in the red, some painfully so (like SOXS, JDST, DUST).

All red, except for the two biotech’s, LABD and BIS.

Those two funds are short vehicles for biotech XBI and IBB, respectively.

The XBI index has not (yet) made a new daily low.

Conversely, the inverse fund LABD, has not made a new daily high.

With that said, the stop on LABD-25-13, remains at last Friday’s low of 33.17 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279