Is Biotech (Short) Back?

July 10, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

First, The SOXX Housekeeping

Biotech Sector SPBIO ($SPSIBI) has got itself into a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (reversal) condition but first, we’ll update the SOXS trade.

A discretionary exit was made during this session at SOXS 10.10, for just over 1% profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

The trade was in the green and not going to be allowed to go red … a simple, but difficult to execute, trading rule.

We’re still in a bubble. That has not changed. So, it’s being watched closely.

Meanwhile, biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI) reversed on June 14th and has been edging lower ever since. Today, we have what looks to be an up-thrust condition.

Price action has penetrated previous resistance and stalled (thus far).

Since our interest is to short the sector, we’ll go straight to the leveraged inverse fund LABD.

Biotech SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD, Hourly

With about an hour before the close, price action’s penetrated support and has slowed significantly.

Positioning:

LABD entry @ 13.8766; Soft-Stop and Hard-Stop might be at the lows for the day (not advice, not a recommendation). More on that, later.

Fundamentals

The drivers for potential downside continue to grow.

Scenes like this have now entrenched themselves into the public arena.

As stated, many times (in the opinion of this author), these events are the primary driving force for all market activity on a go forward basis.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

ChatGPT, Tops-Out

July 8, 2023 By in AVGO, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, TSM

And With That, It’s Over

The ChatGPT craze lasted just long enough to ramp Nvidia and the SOXX, to stratospheric levels.

In the coming weeks and months, we’re likely to see who ‘cashed-in’ (a la Elon Musk) and for how much.

When a bull market nears the end of its lifecycle, it tends to thin-out.

As the smaller cap stocks fall away and underperform, they’re sold and that capital’s funneled into the ‘last man standing’; in this case, Nvidia (NVDA).

Broadcom (AVGO) is there as well, but it’s a distant second at 1/3rd, the market cap of NVDA.

Short Positioning

We’re short this sector via SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation) with entries shown in the prior update.

There was a third entry on 7/6 (not shown), but it’s minimal size when compared to the others.

Now, on to the charts

Semiconductor Leveraged Inverse Fund, SOXS

The following chart has the current hard-stop progression and soft-stop (trader discretion) locations.

Moving in closer with the zoom version.

The ‘AI’ bulls are in their brain stem (un-thinking), enabled in their fantasy by articles like this one and this one.

Of course, there’s more like here and here but we get the picture.

Taiwan Semi (TSM) Earnings Date

At the time of this update, TSM earnings date was an estimate, now confirmed as July 20th, before the open.

It’s about to get interesting.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Managing The (SOXS) Trade

July 5, 2023 By in Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

The ‘AI’ Reversal

It looks a little unstable for the ‘AI’ bulls.

The top in the SOXX, was correctly identified, here.

The potential completion of the downside test and reversal was discussed, here.

After that last post, the SOXX limped higher for one day, before reversing, today.

In fact, today’s session lows took out the daily lows of the prior two sessions.

This update will be brief.

A short position (via SOXS) was initiated on Friday June 30th, then increased by 20%, this past Monday, July 3rd (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductor Leveraged Inverse Fund SOXS, Daily

Entries are shown as Arrow No. 1 and No. 2

An original soft stop (trader discretion) and hard stop were given of 9.75, and 9.48, respectively.

Price action on Monday pushed through the soft stop and trader discretion was to maintain the position.

As a result of today’s action, the hard stop has been moved up to SOXS 9.54, with a soft stop at today’s SOXS low of 9.76 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Beware … The ‘Ides’ of July

July 2, 2023 By in NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, TSM 1 Comment

Well, July 13th, Actually

Thursday, July 13th, is when Tiawan Semi (TSM) is scheduled to release its earnings.

At this point, the date is still an estimate as this link says it could be as late as the 19th.

Either way, we’re going to find out (very soon) if there’s any correlating support for Nvidia’s ‘fantasy‘, $11-Billion.

The historic chart for NVDA (since 1999), shows an incredible rise that has apparently reached a climax top.

That climax is shown by the ‘off-the-chart’ reading of Force Index; never before seen in the 24-years, a near quarter century of trading history.

Nvidia, NVDA Daily Chart, Historical

Moving closer in on the daily, we see the magnitude of the thrust higher.

The gap has been labeled ‘exhaustion’.

That premise is supported by the fact of immense thrust (and volume) higher.

Exhaustion means just that; it can’t be sustained (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Show Me The Money !’ … NVDA

July 1, 2023 By in GDXJ, JDST, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, The Maverick of Wall Street 3 Comments

Waiting, For August 23rd

From a strategic standpoint, this past Friday was the end of the Quarter and possibly the lowest risk spot to short the semis (not advice, not a recommendation).

‘Low risk’, does not mean, ‘no risk’.

We’ll look at the chart below for the SOXX, but first some housekeeping on the Junior Miners, GDXJ.

As stated in the last update, if there was more GDXJ, upside, shorts (via JDST) would be exited. That’s what happened with an overall gain of + 3.57%, on the series (beginning 6/16/23).

Now, on to the next circus … Artificial Intelligence; more specifically, NVDA and its cohort, the SOXX.

Where’s The Money?

With the quarter over, money managers have dutifully shown they’re like everyone else, ‘investing’ in AI.

That’s out of the way, so let’s move on to the specifics:

‘Hey NVDA, where’s the $11 Billion?’

Referring back to the excellent investigation done by The Maverick, in his view, the $11 Billion, is “Fantasy”.

The tricky part from a chart standpoint, is to identify when or if that fantasy is going to be exposed.

Semiconductor SOXX, Weekly (Inverted)

We’ve taken the weekly chart of SOXX, and inverted it as if going long the leveraged inverse SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Downside force dissipating with each major thrust.

Last week was an ‘inside week’; price action could not make a new weekly low.

Couple that with end of quarter, potential ‘window dressing’ and this past Friday, may have been the lowest risk point, for shorting via SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Analysis … not Advice

This site cannot and will not give advice.

What it can do, is provide analysis and strategy so that you can make your own determination on the market.

With that said, the ‘heads-up’ for a top in the SOXX, was posted on June 17th, link here.

Since that time, the SOXX reversed down and has now come back to test.

Positioning

On Friday, the SOXX, was shorted by entering long the inverse fund SOXS, at 10.01.

Soft stop (trader discretion) for the position is the session low at 9.75, and hard stop (no excuses exit) at all-time low of 9.48 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The coming weeks may prove interesting. All eyes will be on that ‘$11-Billion’.

Show Me The Money

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Supply & Demand … Junior Miners

June 29, 2023 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Positions, serpentza, The List, The Speck 1 Comment

Testing The Right-Side

It’s a good thing we’re not listening to the ‘inflation’ narrative, just like we didn’t listen to ‘The Speck’ narrative of the past few years.

Turns out, ‘The Speck‘ was just the re-branded, common flu.

Inflation or Deflation

One has to wonder if the mainstream will ever acknowledge we’re in a deflation impulse.

The ‘inflation’ we’re seeing is (potentially) more associated with supply, product, and population destruction than any ‘money printing’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

As ‘Winston’ says at this link (time stamp (1:21:48),

‘People are allergic to the truth.’

The truth for the day, concerning the Junior Mining Index GDXJ, is that we’re testing the right-side trend line, the supply side.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Candle

Today’s price action is technically a ‘Key reversal’.

As such, the typical response is continuation to the upside during the coming days and or weeks.

Key reversals are not perfect and at times, will fail.

The important session for GDXJ, is tomorrow, Friday.

Continued upside most likely results in exit of short positions (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax (Crash) Clues

June 27, 2023 By in 1987, Car Questions Answered, Jerimiah Babe, KMX, serpentza

Hits ‘Target’, Then Reversal

Sales down, earnings down, car prices down, demand collapsing and yet, KMX, goes higher.

Frist off, let’s address the ‘clown show’ that bandies about ‘crash’ this, and ‘crash’ that … ad infinitum.

After you’ve said crash fifteen, thirty times or more on your YouTube channel, nobody’s listening when it really happens.

How about we all (myself included) take a cue from the late Dr. Martin Zweig as seen here, (time stamp 6:40) where he’s reluctant to say ‘crash’ even when it’s on the eve of Black Monday 1987.

Now, back to our update.

CarMax … Strategy

So, let’s review the CarMax situation from a calm but focused perspective.

Strategically, KMX has met the price target identified last October (link here), and has apparently reversed.

The ‘Dead Cat’ Has Bounced

So, was last Friday’s earnings release high of 87.06, close enough to the ’85-area’ as forecasted?

“As the magenta arrow shows, there could be small blip up to resistance in the 85-area before potentially rolling over into a descent that projects to the 4.00, level.”

It took over eight months to get back to the ’85-level’.

What happens next?

Fundamental Forces

It’s been the premise of this site, we’re at the beginning stages of the largest financial, social, and population collapse ever seen (not advice, not a recommendation).

From a CarMax perspective, we have this just out yesterday.

Car lots are overflowing and we’re playing musical chairs with inventory to make it look like something’s happening.

Next, we have a Ford employee writing in, to Jeremiah Babe, saying the Electrical Vehicle Plant is a “ghost town”.

What does that ‘clean energy’ ghost town mean for silver demand? Ah, but I digress. 🙂

We’re most likely just getting started. For a snapshot into what may come our way, take a look at this.

Now, on to the chart

CarMax (KMX) Quarterly Bar

The original chart from October 2022, is repeated below.

Now, the update.

CarMax, KMX, Daily Bar

When looking at the daily, we see we’re in Wyckoff Up-Thrust (reversal) condition.

We’re at The Danger Point®

Just so we’re not one-sided, here’s a bullish forecast for KMX (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, there’re no plans to go short (not advice, not a recommendation) … although it may not be a bad spot considering all the forces lining up.

An obvious stop level (for a short) would be last Friday’s high of KMX 87.06 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mind The (Miner) Gap

June 21, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Loeb, Neil McCoy-Ward, Positions, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

‘Straightforward’ … Sort Of

‘Real (market) opportunities are rare. When one is found, it must be used to its fullest extent’; Gerald M. Loeb, the late, and former Vice Chairman, of E.F. Hutton

What a refreshing quote that is, back in the day when we had ‘Chairmen.’.

So, are the Miners the Juniors GDXJ, that opportunity?

From a technical standpoint, there’s the bearish divergence on MACD when looking at the weekly. Then, we have Fibonacci correlation on the weekly as well (shown below).

The daily has the short entry signal given yesterday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fundamentals Collapse

Next, we have industrial demand in collapse, not to mention the world economies. If industrial demand is collapsing for photovoltaic components (link here), then silver demand must be collapsing.

The ‘Gap’

The analysis was working fine in the pre-market for shorting the GDXJ (not advice, not a recommendation), but then at the open, there was the gap.

Let’s address that but first get started with the weekly chart of GDXJ

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly

The technical details are clear: Bearish divergence on MACD as well as Fibonacci time correlation.

The original Fibonacci 89-weeks was covered in this post.

Yesterday, there was a gap-lower open and price action kept posting lower.

Will this gap be filled? That’s the question.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

As the chart implies, was yesterday a breakaway gap?

Price action’s right at support … or slightly below, which technically put us in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

The ‘Probabilities’

Given the bearish overall condition of this sector both on a technical and fundamental basis, a gap-fill is unlikely … but one has to be prepared.

As stated in the last update, the short position via leveraged inverse JDST was increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

To account for possible gap closure on the inverse JDST, a soft stop (trader discretion) is at 6.80 and below, with an absolute hard stop (no excuses exit) at 6.38 (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s now, 20-minutes before the open.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Entry Signal(s) … Short The Miners

June 20, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Positions 1 Comment

Classic, Textbook

It’s rare to get a ‘textbook’ signal … but every now and then, it does happen.

The last update on the Junior Miners, GDXJ, said a short position in the sector was re-established.

Today’s trading action may be straightforward; we either get stopped-out, or the market gives the signal to enter a full (sized) position (not advice, not a recommendation).

The bearish case for the miners has already been established many times over. Recent posts are here, here, here and here.

Since we’re looking at the sector from the short side, we’ll use the chart for the leveraged inverse fund JDST.

Junior Miners, Leveraged Inverse JDST, Daily

As said at the top, it’s (potentially) straightforward.

If JDST, price action exceeds 6.81, a full position will be entered with hard stop at this session’s low (determined at the close of the day).

If price action declines to 6.37, or lower, the existing (small) position is closed out.

Closer in, with a zoom of the price action.

As of this post (8:41 a.m., EST) JDST is trading in the pre-market slightly higher at, 6.65 which is + 0.08, or + 1.22%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading Channel Update, GDXJ

June 18, 2023 By in Edward Dowd, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Uneducated Economist 1 Comment

Price Action Itself, Defines The Levels

It’s time for an ‘adjustment’ to the trading channel identified in the prior update.

The Juniors GDXJ, are still in a downtrend.

Last Friday, they hit and retraced from the (adjusted) right side trading channel shown below.

The weekly MACD histogram (not shown) remains in a bearish divergence, indicating probabilities still favor the downside.

Price action will have to decisively break the downtrend to negate the bearish potential.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Candle

From a trading perspective, existing short positions were closed out this past Friday and then re-established (partially) towards the end of the session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Dollar Death … Not Yet

Just like the A.I. propaganda, it’s popular to get hysterical about ‘de-dollarization’.

Two perspectives that are not part of the crowd are here and here.

They give a more sober look at what is really happening on a world-wide, dollar basis.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279