Tag Archives: business

Economic ‘Implosion’

January 15, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Great Depression 2.0, LABD, LABD-25-01, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Collapsing On Several Fronts

‘Retail’, selling silver, link here.

Jewelry whacked, link here.

Loan Shark, link here.

You know it’s bad when booze takes a hit, link here and here.

Producer prices launch higher, link here.

Lumber prices collapse, again, link here.

Travel restrictions, link here.

Then, there are ‘valuations’, link here.

Also then, there’s this, link here.

Lastly, short squeezes and liquidity traps … bear market behavior, link here.

Speaking of ‘short squeeze’, we had biotech do just that in the pre-market (and regular) session.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If it really is/was a short squeeze, once shorts are covered, the expectation is for price to continue lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Included in the chart, is a bit of insight you’re not likely to find anywhere else.

Note the distance of each retrace after a leg down. Less each time and Fibonacci multiples.

As stated yesterday, XBI posted outside down. That means price action penetrated the lows of the prior session and closed lower.

As wild as it may seem, penetrating the lows and closing lower, put XBI in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That’s what we saw with today’s action.

As this post is being created (11:45 a.m., EST), XBI action continues to erode to the downside currently trading at the 87.60 – area.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Leader … Biotech

January 14, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IBB, IWM, LABD-25-01, Russell 2000, SPBIO, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Confirming, Right-Side Channel

It’s a recurring theme with biotech.

Over and again, this sector (IBB, XBI) is not participating in tandem with the other major indices.

Today’s pre-market mayhem higher over supposed slower outlays of possible trade tariffs to happen some-time, some-day, caused the major indices to launch upward. 🙂

Well, everybody seemed to be blasting higher except one sector, biotech.

Wyckoff Directed Action

No matter what the ‘narrative’ may be, Wyckoff analysis directs us to look at what the market is actually doing, then interpret the action.

Early after the open, trade TZA-25-01, was exited, +8.9% gain, short position opened in biotech via LABD, Trade: LABD-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today posted outside down, taking out both the high and low of the prior session.

Note the trading channel and width, Fibonacci 13-Days.

Also note the two ‘breakaway gaps’. The second one on January 10th, much wider than November 12th, last year.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Down … No End In Sight

December 20, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-24-01 Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Parallel Channels

Moves that take years to develop, once started, can go on much longer than anyone would expect.

Depending on your viewpoint, biotech XBI, has been congesting sideways (in a range) from one-to-three years.

Either way, the current breakdown suggests the potential for a sustained down trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Remember, Wyckoff said the market itself, will tell us what levels and trendlines are significant.

If the current (right-side) channel is valid, the market itself shows us a similar channel in the past.

Two things to note.

First: Record Volume

As far as known (source, TC2000), November 15th’s volume of 30.3 million, was the largest ever recorded for the XBI:

That’s ‘thirty-point-three’ (thirty-three), you can’t make this stuff up. 🙂

Second: Short Position

There were two attempts to short this market.

Trade: XBI-24-01

Actual, sell-short, closed with -0.40%, loss

Trade: LABD-24-21

Leveraged inverse fund LABD, currently open with +27.31%, profit (as of 9:02 a.m., EST).

Volatility & Leveraged Inverse

The objective is to trade short using LABD, for as long as practical (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the XBI begins to get volatile with wide swings and chop either up or down, slippage-decay on inverse funds becomes prohibitive.

LABD-24-21 may be exited at any time, without notice.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

All Jobs … ‘Fake’

December 17, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: ,

What’s The ‘Real’ Message

Like a scene out of Animal House, we have Tomfoolery going on with ‘official’ data, out of ‘reliable’ sources.

Turns out, at least in this case, the data’s fake.

Earlier in the year, we had 800,000 jobs. That was fake as well.

The message that most if not all have missed, is the market’s response to the fakery:

The markets have responded to revelations of fake data by doing … nothing. No wild swings, no major gaps lower or higher, nothing.

That’s the real message.

This site’s focused on what the market’s actually telling us, not what the (fake) financial press tries to tell us.

All of which, brings us to biotech.

Biotech Sector SPSIBI (SPBIO), Daily

We’re using ‘pure’ index (in this example) as the XBI, has minor differences, obscuring the Fibonacci sequence.

Price action’s consistent with establishing and confirming a right-side trend line (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, there has not been a new daily low … yet.

So, there’s still the possibility of breaking the downtrend (line) and morphing into something different.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A Tale of Two Markets

December 16, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, Semiconductors, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI Tags: , , , ,

SOXX Powering Higher, XBI Pivoting Lower

To borrow from the Dickens classic:

It was the bullish of times, it was the bearish of times.

Bulls have regained control of the semiconductors (SOXX) for now and negated the ‘false breakout’ analysis link here.

Meanwhile, bears have moved into biotech XBI; currently testing underside resistance and axis line.

Since the active trade (LABD-24-21) is in biotech, we’ll review that market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The weekly shows us the ‘Axis Line’ has been part of XBI price action for at least three years.

Moving on to the daily, more detail.

Biotech XBI, Daily

There was (decisive) downside penetration, November 15th. Then, an attempted recovery that so far, has failed.

The notation ‘Short?’, was the date of this post.

As the semiconductors battle over who’s in control, for biotech, the bears seem to have established a foothold (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Hartford ‘Wedge’

December 10, 2024 By in 2007 - 2008, HIG, Insurance, S&P 500, SPY Tags:

What Happened, Last Time?

The last time we had a major (sustained) economic melt-down, was 2007 – 2008.

The market (S&P) bottomed on March 9th, 2009, posting a low at 666.79.

During that collapse, Hartford Financial was one of the hardest hit.

It imploded, crashed, by -96.87%.

It’s important to note, HIG bottomed at 3.33, during the week-ending, 3/6/09; you can’t make this stuff up. 🙂

So, let’s take a look at what HIG, is doing now and if it’s at risk, yet again (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re looking at the long-term, the Quarterly Chart

Hartford Financial, HIG, Quarterly

With just a few weeks left in the Quarter, HIG is positing a reversal.

From a classical analysis standpoint, a reversal back into the wedge (and then upside test) would be a potential sell-signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Set-Up, Part II

October 2, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-19, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-17, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Testing Trendline

Biotech never made it to the 99.75-area from the last update.

However, it did post an up-thrust, topping out at 99.65, just 0.10-pts from target.

This is how it is … for the scientific types, good luck with calculating where the market ‘should’ go. 🙂

Evidently, getting within 0.10-points from a 38.2% retrace was ‘good enough’; XBI reversed from there.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If this is a trendline of some importance, we’re still in the very early stages (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything can happen and XBI, could close higher.

A new daily low was posted early in the session and price action is currently attempting to ‘spring’ off that low.

Positioning

As noted, a short is open (LABD-24-19); it may be a ‘day trade’ if XBI does not close lower for the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, based on price action, SOXS-24-17, was closed with a 13.1%, profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Good News/Bad News … Micron

September 29, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, MU, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-17, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Massive Volume & Gap

From a Wyckoff and David Weis analysis perspective, wide high-volume, price bars tend to be tested.

What does that tell us (to anticipate) with Micron’s huge gap-up with volume?

When we go to the chart, we see more … a lot more.

Frist off, let’s not forget, Micron’s Number Nine, in market cap within the SOXX, tracking ETF.

Its price action behavior (significantly) affects the index.

Micron Technology MU, Daily

We’ve got a (possible) Head & Shoulders. with an Up-Thrust, precipitated by good news (here and here).

It’s been 70 (trading) Days since Nvidia hit all-time highs; a high forecasted, then confirmed here and here:

Back then, was this:

“With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).”

It was significant. Nvidia has not been there since.

Implications

The implication with the (still holding) Nvidia top, is the A.I. bubble has burst.

Possibly the largest asset bubble in world history.

What we’re seeing with Micron, is potentially the last gasps of short covering, with an attempt to mount a rally in an overall deflating market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279