Monthly Archives: July 2024

Hanging By A Thread

July 13, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-12, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

SOXX Bulls, Lose Their Grip

For most of Friday’s session, SOXX bulls looked like they would make it.

Price action pushed up to within 1%, of a new all-time-high.

Levels threatening the A.I. reversal scenario right up until 30-minutes before the close.

Then, the air came out.

The SOXX, closed up for the day, but just under the breakout, shown in the chart below.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Along with closing below resistance (blue line), price action did so on contracting volume.

Volume contraction implies, commitment to higher prices is weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sentiment, Volume, Price

That’s the reversal construct being used on this site.

First, the sentiment, then volume, then finally, the price.

Looking at the 5-Year Weekly chart of Nvidia, we can see it playing out in real-time.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

The professionals have already left the chat; storm clouds are beginning to appear.

So far, ‘Week 89’ reversal remains intact.

The Danger Point®

From an engineering standpoint, the SOXX, has met the requirements for a Wyckoff up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

First: Price action posted an outside-down reversal (last Thursday), on increased volume and closed below established resistance.

Second: That reversal was then tested (on Friday) and did so, on contracting volume.

Third: MACD, divergences on Weekly and Daily timeframes; although near-term weekly has yet to tick lower but still (diverging) below the highs of this past March.

    Intuitively, you can feel that something’s up. The A.I. pump-n-dump set-up may have run its course.

    Stay Tuned

    Charts by StockCharts

    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    The SOXX … Day 55 (+2)

    July 11, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-24-12, SOXX 1 Comment

    Margin of Error

    If you’re upside down in a diving stall, shown here, there’s no margin for error or you’re dead; literally.

    The big problem for engineers, it doesn’t work that way in the markets.

    Two days after this post, we have a potential reversal in the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Of course, the engineers have long since left the room as there was an ‘error.’; not getting the (potential) reversal exactly right.

    If the AI mania is over, that update two days ago was off by two-days; the biggest bubble in world history … at least since the South Sea Bubble.

    So, let’s move on to the chart.

    Before we get started, also note, Nvidia has not made a new (all-time) high. This update identified that reversal correctly (so far).

    Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

    As of 11:05 a.m., EST, the SOXX has posted out-side-down.

    When Fibonacci counts get longer, there is more room to be off by a few days.

    If this is the reversal for the SOXX, a two-day margin is fully acceptable (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Stay Tuned

    Charts by StockCharts

    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    The SOXX … Day ’55’

    July 9, 2024 By in NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

    New Highs & Fibonacci

    Analysis of Nivida has already shown, the leader of the semis’ being influenced by Fibonacci, link here.

    Now, we have the SOXX about to open at or near new highs.

    What you likely won’t find anywhere else, insight that today, is Fibonacci Day ’55’, from the April 19th, lows (not advice, not a recommendation)

    New highs, Day 55, daily and weekly MACD bearish divergences, potential up-thrust; ‘You make the call.’

    Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

    Pre-market action: Currently (as of 8:42 a.m., EST), trading at 260.40-ish, right at the last top high, 260.65.

    Stay Tuned

    Charts by StockCharts

    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    Silver Top … Part VII … Plus

    July 7, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, SLV

    The Dash For Cash

    Everyone’s scrambling for cash … but it’s ‘fiat cash’, they want.

    Debts are paid with fiat cash. Food is bought with fiat cash. The local coin shop or pawn shop runs on fiat cash.

    Or to be more accurate these days, ‘credit’ or ‘debit’ fiat cash.

    The ‘Squeeze’ of 2021

    Before getting to the chart (below), let’s go back to the ‘squeeze’, February of ’21; labeled as ‘Remember This?’

    Back then it was hysteria just like now.

    If you remember, the little guy was going to ‘put it to da man’; force their hand to admit there wasn’t enough physical to cover demand, yada, yada, on it went.

    So, what really happened?

    Well, the SLV ETF, (proposed or) changed its rules of silver allocation, that’s what happened. 🙂

    Sorry Charlie, no silver squeeze this time.

    These two posts covered the crowd delusion (and price action) fairly well; links here and here.

    Is this time any different? Let’s go to the chart.

    Silver SLV, Weekly

    A prior update, link here, said that silver SLV, was at, or near a measured move target.

    Still true; however, it didn’t make it there exactly. So, technically speaking, the target’s still in play.

    Probably more important, is what we have now.

    At the right side, we can see SLV, price (net) distance traveled is becoming shorter.

    While that’s happening, commitment to that move, Force Index, is now bearish divergent (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Industrial Metal

    While the kabuki theater known as rabid silver and gold bulls, continue to run amok, we have more and more evidence the economy is in full-blown decline.

    By this time, referencing ‘official’ statistics, needs to be considered a ‘blue pill‘ move. It’s not reality.

    So, here are just a few links, boots on the ground truth; here, here and here.

    Half of silver produced is used in industry.

    If the economy (industry) is contracting, would not silver do the same?

    Stay Tuned

    Charts by StockCharts

    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    CORN … At Lows, Stops Dead

    July 6, 2024 By in Corn, David Weis, Derecho, ice-age-farmer, Wyckoff

    Penetrates & Holds Below Support

    Penetrating and holding just below support, we know what that means.

    CORN is at The Danger Point®, in spring position (not advice, not a recommendation).

    The chart below covers over four-years of price action; within that, we have at least three technical items to cover.

    Somebody Always ‘Knows’

    First, how does volume in CORN, go from basically nothing, to increasing over 400%, six weeks before, the perfectly timed and positioned (in the corn belt), ‘Derecho‘.

    That location is identified as ‘What’s This?’

    As Wyckoff said a century ago: ‘Somebody always knows something and that ‘something’ shows up on the tape’.

    CORN Fibonacci, 8-Day

    Second, is the successive decrease in downward thrust over the past three-years; at this point, nobody’s watching.

    All of that brings us to the third technical point.

    CORN has retraced to support (blue line) which just happens to be a Fibonacci 61.8%, level; penetrates that support and so far, has stopped dead.

    Stay Tuned

    Charts by StockCharts

    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    Nvidia … Still The Leader?

    July 5, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-10, SOXX

    Setting The (Reversal) Hook

    Nvidia just posted an Up-Thrust, reversal on the daily.

    The rest of the SOXX, whistles past the graveyard.

    If one looks only at the SOXX, everything seems to be ok; it’s recovering (sort-of).

    However, leader NVDA, may be at The Danger Point®, ready to head lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Nvidia NVDA, Daily

    We’ve just had an a-b-c correction from the June 24th lows.

    That correction posted a Wyckoff Up-Thrust with yesterday’s penetration of resistance (blue line) and today’s reversal.

    Note: Both upward moves (wave ‘a’, wave ‘c’) are of equal length but are divergent in thrust energy.

    We’re at the point where anything can happen.

    However, this is the place where risk for being wrong on a short position, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Stay Tuned

    Charts by StockCharts

    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    Bonds: Break Up, or Break Down?

    July 5, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT

    Into The Wedge

    Bonds are in a ‘terminating wedge’.

    So, what comes first? The market implodes with bonds (likely) moving higher?

    Or … bonds break lower, icing on the cake for rate-hikes, then move higher as the market tanks … Or, behind door Number Three, they both melt down, together.

    The least likely event is that nothing happens (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Moving on to the chart.

    Bonds TLT, Monthly

    As shown, the 40-year bond bull market ended during March of 2020.

    That was the week of Friday 13th … you can’t make this stuff up (it’s all about the numbers).

    One item above, favoring the downside more than up, the last major thrust was ‘downside pressure’.

    That thrust has not yet been confirmed with more downside or negated with an upside breakout.

    Stay Tuned

    Charts by StockCharts

    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    Biotech … The ‘Clubhouse Turn’

    July 2, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-13, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI

    Testing Complete … ?

    Is biotech (finally) coming around the Clubhouse turn?

    Has it finished its two-months of (upward) testing and ready to reverse lower?

    We’re about twenty-minutes before the open; pre-market action is posting a tight range (magenta arrow), shown on the inverted chart.

    Biotech XBI, Daily (Inverted)

    For the beginnings of a ‘confirmation’, we’ll need to see a new daily high (new low, non-inverted).

    From a Wyckoff standpoint, note the net distance traveled has become shorter and shorter.

    A potential reversal may be at hand (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Stay Tuned

    Charts by StockCharts

    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279