Random Notes

The usual suspects for the week

No. 1

The market does not ‘have’ to do anything.

Here’s a link to a Zerohedge report letting us know why the market ‘has to cover shorts‘ and move higher this coming week.

The reason retail money managers, pundits and the financial press don’t focus on price action and volume (a life-long pursuit of mastery), is because it’s hard.

As the late David Weis said:

‘There’s a lot to this game of reading the chart.’

Just as Steven Van Metre has drilled down into perfecting his style of bond ‘macro’ management, so too has this site drilled down into the nuance of volume and price action.

That in turn, is coupled with the externals (the ‘macro’, if you will) of sentiment and fundamentals.

It’s more art and intuition than science.

That’s a good thing.

The pointy headed ‘quants’, can’t quantify intuition.

The market (which is thinning out as we speak) may indeed rise this coming week. However, if it does, it won’t be because it ‘has’ to.

No. 2

The ‘knock at the door’

Awaken With JP has a humorous but educational approach on how to help those who want to ‘help’ us.

No. 3

Get the ethanol out

Here’s a brief video on how to get the ethanol out of gasoline.

Once that’s out, you’ll need octane boost. This seems to be highly rated stuff.

No. 4

Grow and store your own. Food, that is.

In this report from iceagefarmer, the picture at time stamp 10:27, should dispel all illusion. ‘Shaking hands with Klaus’.

At time stamp 16:02, notice how many farmers have been notified.

Once awake, anomalies like these ‘numbers’ are spotted instantly. It serves to remind us, who is ‘of this world’.

My kingdom is not of this world

No. 5

Brew your own. Beer, that is.

At this point in time and with global shutdowns on the horizon again, maybe we just brew our own.

I have purchased the exact kit shown in the link.

Report on the results to follow.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Deep Dive: Gold Reversal

Gold Miner’s GDX

Fibonacci Projection

Rule of Alternation

Wyckoff analysis was used to identify the GDX up-thrust, reversal condition.

Nine trading days later, GDX is down a stiff -11.7%, from the analysis location.

It’s down -14.9% from its interim high set on May 19th.

What happens next?

This site offers a different perspective (more thoughtful, perhaps) than ‘stacking’ precious metals as high as possible.

Thoughts such as, major infrastructure disruptions (and more) are likely:

That includes nationwide power outages, food transport interruptions (or cancelled outright) along with massive ‘speck’ injected casualties (estimated past 100,000), see this report.

The very last thing you’ll need in that environment, is a stack of metal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Personal anecdote, skip to GDX Chart, if not interested.

These updates are originating from the North-Central area of Texas (DFW). When the historic cold snap rolled through this past February, the power went out repeatedly.

The first thought was not: “I’m sure glad I have my stack of silver to get me through”

No. The thinking was (in this order):

Food, water (water was second as there was plenty of it just outside as snow), munitions and ‘delivery mechanisms’, cash in case the gas station was operational … which is was not and then lastly, heat.

The location was using natural gas for heating and was available as long as there was power

Precious metals were nowhere on the list … not even considered. They had nothing to do with the situation at hand.

Precious metals come later … after the famine.

GDX Chart:

The original analysis from June 8th, is below:

Subsequent trade action (including the original notes):

Weekly chart showing Fibonacci downside projection to level(s) mentioned frequently by Steven Van Metre.

In the chart above, note the choppy action leading down to the most recent upside pivot (early March). That area expanded below:

If we’re in a reversal to much lower levels, the market tends to alternate.

It was choppy and overlapping action from the highs in August of ’20 to the March ’21, low.

Thus far at the pivot high in late May, its been essentially straight down.

With the planned outages discussed above, precious metals may become (temporarily) irrelevant.

If or when that happens, it may be time to consider a ‘stack’.

Of course, by then, no one will want to buy (and spend their worthless fiat cash) for risk of starving to death. This is how markets work.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

The usual suspects for the week.

No. 1

Succession Planning

Note: This source (linked) has not been vetted. However, it could be one of many to come; therefore, it’s included in the list.

One more brick in the wall showing major corporations all on the same script.

A script like ‘we’re all in this together’ popping up instantly nationwide. Now, we have those same entities planning to replace all those who have been injected.

No, it’s not the ones who have refused but those who willingly lined up (in most cases except children) to limit, or eliminate their lifespan.

Just in case the first link may not have the right pedigree, here’s one showing that Goldman Sachs wants to know your ‘status’.

The mainstream paints it as working to ‘be safe’ (and get injected).

It really may be to identify who needs to be replaced.

No. 2

Lumber Crash, Economy Next?

That was the update for June 5th. Now, we have the mainstream report.

Hidden within the article is a miss-statement or outright lie:

“With that being said, when you think about the amount of housing we’re going to have to build in the U.S. over the next three, five, 10 years, that’s a significant amount of demand for wood products.”

Sorry … anybody with two studs rubbing together knows there’ll be no lumber demand … except for coffins … but then again, FEMA got that worked out years ago.

No. 3

Food Supply Controlled Demolition

Ice Age Farmer bats-a-thousand as he puts out two reports here and here discussing the latest salvo in food supply destruction.

He’s been on the forefront; politely admonishing his viewers to get going with their own food production.

Anyone who’s done so in a serious way realizes quickly, there’s a big learning curve to get a private garden up to maximum production.

It takes years as the first harvest needs to produce seeds acclimated to the local region. After that, they come up like weeds.

Logically then, one needs enough stored food to last for one year.

What’s in your pantry?

No. 4

Take heed that ye be not deceived

Even though this link contains a presentation on what may be truth, the poster Rogersings NWO News! , notes correctly (in his comments below the post) there’s something wrong.

To put it succinctly:

I am the way, the truth and the life …

From this site’s perspective (The Danger Point), the presentation above allows these two (Madej and Stone), to be crossed off the list of truth sources.

Just listen to the new age lingo. What a load of bollocks.

Enough said.

No. 5

Clown Show at The G7

A world of illusion.

Is the ‘elbow bump’ just a new version of this salute?

No. 6

Priced Out of The Market

Jerimiah Babe presents (time stamp 5:38) that this firm, article linked here, has decided to take the money and run.

The middle class is priced-out for now. However, if the U.S. population craters over the next three years, won’t the joke be on them?

No. 7

It’s Tough Being An Idiot

First, they tell me I can’t travel unless I get injected.

Of course, I ‘follow the rules’ and do the right thing; get myself injected.

Now, they tell me I can’t travel because I’ve been injected.

Personal anecdote (skip to No. 8, if not interested)

Way back, right about the time Mask on, Mask off, was posted, I had a conversation with the Janitor at the local home improvement store.

Just to be clear, restrooms at these outfits are some of the most disgusting I’ve ever seen; Worse than your typical Allsup’s gas station on Hwy 287, heading to Amarillo.

This guy was South American and had lived in Brazil. During our conversation, he proceeded to tell me the ‘speck’ was a hoax. He said it was just like the propaganda being pumped out down there before elections.

His comments were additional confirmation of my own research.

The point here, he’s not ‘educated’.

He works for minimum wage, cleans up never ending human excrement from the floor and yet, he’s awake to the lies and deception.

At the same store, you can find a middle-aged ‘lot loader’ gathering shopping carts in the parking lot.

Talking with him about current events has him quoting Revelation.

So what gives?

I’ve heard one presenter (Amazing Polly, if memory serves) say that ‘stupidity is a choice’.

It’s uncomfortable to recognize and act on truth. It’s much easier to stay in the crowd where we’re all safely injected.

Therefore, our rule following traveler above chooses stupidity rather than the raw edge of reality; that reality is, nothing … absolutely nothing, is ‘safe’.

In their intentionally compromised mind, they’ve convinced themselves they’re doing the ‘right thing‘.

So be it:

The difference is, they have to stay home now as they’re not allowed to travel anymore.

No. 8

Color Blind

Two moms are filmed testifying in front of school boards.

The links are here and here.

One topic is more intense than the other; taking that part into account and closing your eyes, you will not be able to tell which one of the mom’s is black.

Just from watching, you can tell they both have character and courage. They are well spoken and educated.

Those are the exact things ‘the world‘ seeks to destroy.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

The usual suspects for the week.

No. 1

“Intermittent reinforcement, is a hook.”

That’s what the late David Weis told me during a mentoring session years ago.

Being told a half truth, fools the easily fooled into thinking that maybe someday, they’ll be told the whole truth.

It’s a psychological hook that never ends.

The so-called news organization at this link, likes to act like it’s part of the opposition; It feigns surprise as it ‘reports’ on carefully crafted, selected, intermittent reinforcement topics.

Nothing happens at this level that’s not planned.

Nothing.

No. 2

Cyber attack at largest meat packer.

Just one of many hits taking place in the cattle industry.

The cattle livestock/ranching sector continues to be under increasing (planned, intentional) attack.

As Ice Age Farmer reports, both Colorado and Oregon are working to outlaw cattle ranching; making it too expensive to raise beef and thus eliminating the practice.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch … literally, there’s an independent meat processor near Fort Worth.

Personal anecdote below (skip to No. 3, if desired)

There’s a ‘hole in the wall’ meat processor in a town near Fort Worth.

It’s located well off a main road and next to several nursing homes. Vacant, weed-overgrown lots, surround the building.

You have to navigate a giant pot-hole in the dirt parking lot to get to the metal barn-like entrance.

Once inside, you’re standing on a cement floor and facing a long refrigerated display case … probably, 20ft – 25ft, long.

It’s at that point, you realize you’re not ‘inside’ but actually underneath a metal overhang that was attached to the outside of the main building.

From the amount of rust visible and the worn paths in the concrete, it looks like this ‘addition’ took place at least twenty years ago.

While I was there, a man who had driven from Sachse (pronounced Sacks-see) was there to pick up his order.

Sachse is on the other side of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. It’s over 60-miles away. Not far in Texas, but still.

This is the type of place that will process your typical deer or other game kill for the ‘Bubba’ type hunters.

That is, until now.

There’s a sign at the entrance that says because of the overwhelming increase in business, game processing will no longer be available.

That sign is right next to the “Help Wanted” sign.

So, that’s how it’s mapping out … at least on that day in this town next to Ft. Worth.

The infrastructure is fragmenting.

Extrapolating the example above, it looks like small independent ranchers and processors will attempt to pick up the slack … but it’s not likely to be enough.

The real constrictions to the food supply have not even started. This small hole in the wall, is already overwhelmed.

No. 3

One reported effect of speck injection is being termed “Jab Freeze“.

The link shows what that may look like. Source has not been vetted.

You be the judge.

No. 4

Nurse calls out her corrupt and cowardly co-workers.

At time stamp 6:53, she calls them “The Devil’s Little Helper”.

Taking money to knowingly inject people (and now, children) with a lethal concoction is betrayal.

I wonder if that extra pay amounts to ‘thirty pieces of sliver’.

No. 5

Don’t drink the Kool-Aide

Remember that?

Late Saturday night, an episode of “Corrupt Crimes” was aired that covered the Jim Jones massacre.

Did you know there were survivors? Want to know how many?

There were 33 survivors.

That puts the whole event in a different light doesn’t it?

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold, The Big Picture

The bottom line for gold is: Retrace, lower

No-one in the inflation camp wants to hear that … it’s uncomfortable to face the potential of being so wrong.

Albeit wrong in the short term but probably right later … after it’s too late. More on that farther down.

Just like the lazy (and complicit, we might add) financial journalist publishing the standard (speck blaming) propaganda for the day, so too are the hyper-inflationists, jumping on the most popular bandwagon in town.

Not even considering the potential for a retrace; admittedly, which could be short and sharp but significant nonetheless.

This site has presented several times, we’re in a situation similar to that of Genesis 41. It’s the corn and grain first … then gold and silver.

Just to back that up a bit before getting to the charts, we have the following:

Crop failures world-wide

Systematic destruction of the food supply chain

Systematic elimination of farms and viable (for millennia) ranching practices.

Solar minima activity (decreased sun-spots) causing erratic weather patterns, shifting growing zones; even as far as sub Sahara, Sudan.

Those so focused on stacking metals will likely be using that stack to pry much needed food, food staples, seeds and fertilizer out of the hands of those not willing to sell … at any price.

Why are the oligarchs not worried about the ‘little guy’ stacking metals?

Because there’re going to make it irrelevant … at least for just long enough to completely bankrupt, starve or ‘inject’ the middle class.

Moving on to the charts:

The title header said ‘big picture’. Here we are with monthly gold charts going back to the 1950s, time-frame.

It’s been a long … long bull market. It appears to have made a top at ~1,972 and is retracing … if only just a bit.

The second chart is the one that gives us pause. Consider the potential for a more substantial pull-back.

Markets like to retrace and test. It’s what they do.

That second chart is scary. It’s plain, the 760 – 780 area is a long time (monthly) support level that goes all the way back to 1980.

Absolutely no-one expects, or is planning for gold to get back to $800/oz, or lower.

Think of the irony. The ‘stackers’ (and maybe the rest of us), having to exchange actual money, gold and silver, for worthless fiat just so they/we can buy food to stay alive.

After the middle class stackers have exhausted their metals hoard, that’s when gold and silver will launch into the next bull phase.

It has been done this way (keeping the peasants under control), literally for millennia. The method works … why change?

Summary:

The intent here, is to at least recognize the possibility for the above scenario. It’s clear and becoming more clear every day, food is the weapon of choice.

The objective is to have enough food ahead of time; be in position to take advantage of once-in-a-lifetime metals prices should that opportunity be presented.

Stay Tuned

Charts by Macrotrends

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Corn in New Trend, Higher

1:53 p.m. EST, Yesterday’s update finished with this:

To wit, CORN has just pivoted to the up side in a new trend; rising at over 437%, annualized.

If and when this news hits the mainstream press, it’s likely to be painted as ‘signs of inflation’.

It’s easy to be a lazy mainstream financial press writer these days.

All one has to do, is write some financial drivel and blame ‘The Speck’, inflation or climate change for the crisis du jour.

There … done.

The next day will be the same. Except maybe we’ll throw in something about the direction of interest rates; how they too, are somehow controlled by ‘climate change’. There … done.

The hard part then, is to dig into actualities.

What’s really going on.

As the systematic dismantling of the food supply infrastructure continues, prices will naturally rise. There’s plenty of documentation supporting this assessment.

The best site identified thus far, that includes supporting data is iceagefarmer.com.

Moving on to the chart:

It’s never been the same for CORN since the Drecheo of last year (highlighted below).

After the drecheo, CORN moved steadily higher. It then morphed into a trading range around mid-January this year. Then, on April 31st, there was a major breakout to the upside.

We’re now trending at above 430%, annualized.

The dashed arrow on the middle of the chart is the exact same trend. The right side arrow was just copied and moved over to the middle area.

Markets have their own characteristics.

At this point, CORN’s characteristic is to trend, rise aggressively (dashed arrow), go into a range, then break out higher again (solid arrow).

With that, we can expect at some point for CORN to go into another range … but it’s not guaranteed. Panic may set in way before that.

My frim is not trading the grains but using them as a proxy for how much time is left to prepare. At this point, it looks like time’s very short.

All we need is another mid-west (growing area) weather ‘event’ such as an unexpected freeze or persistent flood; launching corn and grains to nosebleed levels.

That would give the oligarch’s their chance to sell it as ‘climate change’.

It is, in a way:

However, they’re the ones making the climate.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Inflation or Deflation?

Is the latest stimulus bill inflationary or deflationary?

For those adhering to the tenets of Wyckoff analysis (as this site does), you already know it’s sort of a trick question.

The answer is: It doesn’t matter.

Maybe a better way to put it, it’s the wrong question.

The right question is: What’s the market saying about itself?

The market itself will decide (or reveal) the next probable direction.

Before we get to the charts; remember, one objective for the (U.S.) markets and political kabuki theater is, destroy the middle class.

Exactly how that’s going to happen in the final act is unknown.

Perhaps it’ll be illegal to go to the bullion dealer (or the grocer) without proof of protection (injection). Problem solved.

That destruction remains the backdrop; the macro for the analysis.

Moving on to the charts:

Real estate remains in a terminating wedge. Last week’s action had IYR contact the lower wedge boundary and then retrace into the close.

Weekly volume was the highest since the week of March 13th, 2020, almost exactly one year ago.

So, we see the ‘face ripping’ Friday rally, ‘plunge protection team‘ action, had no material effect on the chart’s technical message.

Looking at it a different way, there’s also an axis line in play.

Market oscillations about axis lines are completely normal.

We’ll see if Monday’s action is ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’. We’ve already had buy the rumor (stimulus) with Friday’s rally.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

What’s For Dinner?

According to this report from ice age farmer, it’s trash and bugs.

While the sleight of hand is taking place in the political arena, the distraction allows (without notice) some fast food outlets to put garbage, literally, in their food.

Eating real food on a go-forward basis, is going to cost. 

If huge numbers of the population are on government assistance, they’ll take whatever they’re given.

According to the link above, that ‘given’, will likely be ‘up-cycled’ food which is trash, garbage, along with ‘insect’ protein.

Those accessing these updates, just by repetition are (or already) getting the picture.  There’s a lot more going on than just the markets.

It’s the markets though, that gives us a way (at least for now), to circumvent the cost required to separate from the herd.

Prior updates have discussed the food supply and specifically, corn. 

One of those highlighted an area in CORN, that would present an opportunity.

With new restrictions coming or already in place, it’s likely that restaurant dining will take another hit.  Winter’s rapidly on the horizon and outside dining will be eliminated for months to come.

Conversely, demand for restaurant ingredients will be affected which in turn, could affect the commodities markets … at least temporarily.

That brings us to CORN.

Even though the CORN fund is an amalgamation of three futures contracts, it’s interesting that it still adheres to classical analysis. 

We can see the measured move from the wedge breakout and the retrace back to resistance.

It’s what happens next that’s important.

Restaurant demand could collapse again; driving CORN lower. 

If so, and we get below the support area (creating a spring, reversal,  condition), it could be the last time … ever, we see these prices.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.