Monthly Archives: October 2024

Real Estate … Stretched

October 21, 2024 By in Bonds, DRV, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Real Estate, SRS, TLT, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Massive Wedge Pattern

Bonds (TLT) reversed on 9/17/24, the day before the Fed ‘cut’ and never looked back.

Rates continue to rise.

Meanwhile, real estate (IYR), has been whistling past the graveyard; that is, until now.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

If the wedge is in-effect and we’re in a throw-over about to return into the pattern, it signals a very bearish condition (not advice, not a recommendation).

Even the illustrious financial press is starting to catch on that something’s not quite right. 🙂

Of course, you have to ‘subscribe’ for information like this.

As for this site, the current (bond) reversal was first identified and discussed, here.

Back then …

“Looking at the Fed calendar, link here, it’s a very interesting date; ‘the day after’ November 5th.

Let’s see if the ‘rate cut’ is immediately reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).”

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX & Channel

October 20, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX, TSM 1 Comment

Nascent Move

Is downside potential in the SOXX, just a throw of the dice or was last week’s action significant?

Taiwan Semi (TSM) posted what could be an exhaustion top.

Former leader Nvidia (NVDA), now potential laggard, only ticking up 0.13-pts, to new high before hesitating, pulling back.

Suppliers of processing equipment, the nuts-and-bolts of semiconductor production, have imploded.

It all looks significant, even from a cursory standpoint.

As kabuki theater rages on at the highs, SOXX itself, is down over -14%, from its July top.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

“What do you see?”

Is this the (hidden) channel?

Tuesday the 15th, posted down hard; then, traded in the lower half of the range for the rest of the week.

Positioning

Obviously, with all of the above, lower action is the expectation going forward.

However, if the SOXX, decides to reverse higher, exit of short position, SOXS-24-18, is likely (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Measured Moves

October 19, 2024 By in Charles Hugh Smith, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Gold Production, Speck-Effect, Statista, The Speck Tags: , , ,

Is This … ‘Inflation?‘

Is gold rising because of ‘inflation’ or just another market going through pattern-influenced moves?

Maybe there’s something else, something no-one talks about.

As far as known, the following insight (first discussed here) is exclusive:

Since 2020, world-wide gold output is declining; output for 2023, down over 9%, since 2019, link here.

Could this be a clue? Full article is here.

Well, enough of the truth.

Let’s get back to our fantasy world; the highly simplistic excuse that gold’s responding to ‘massive inflation’ and ‘money printing’.

Gold GLD, Monthly

One wedge, with its target already reached.

There’s another potential wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since futures are trading about $200/oz. higher than GLD (at 1/10 oz. pricing), the second measured move if reached, corresponds to about $3,300/oz. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Taiwan Semi’s Exhaustion Spike

October 18, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX, TSM, Wyckoff 2 Comments

‘… Giving It All She’s Got, Captain’

One hundred and fourteen years ago, Wyckoff described the ‘exhaustion spike’.

‘After long upward bull market, there’s a blow-off top on heavy volume’

That may be what happened yesterday with earnings from TSM.

The sector itself, the SOXX, is far below its all-time highs.

That implies the market’s ‘thinning-out’.

Right now, as of this post (11:32 a.m., EST), SOXX is trading in sort of a no man’s land.

Action is higher for the day, but in the lower end of the sharp down move from Tuesday, the 15th.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

‘Lower Half’ action sets a bearish tone.

If we get a new daily low, that increases the probability of more downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Semi-Sector Test

October 17, 2024 By in AMAT, Artificial Intelligence, ASML, KLAC, LRCX, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX

‘Normal’ Market Action

With implosion of SOXX, components ASML, AMAT, LRCX, and KLAC, a reasonable conclusion is the upside test (about to happen) will be reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

NVDA, and TSM, are looking to post all-time highs.

The rest of the sector’s acting like it’s ‘thinning out’; capital’s taken out of laggards, funneled into the last-man-standing, the only thing left moving higher.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

Recall from this post, we had:

“Normal market behavior is to attempt a test of the wide bar with retrace action.“

We see in the pre-market (as of 9:04 a.m., EST), we’re trading just above the 50%, retrace level.

While anything can happen, a push above reversal level @ SOXX 240.50-area, is not expected (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ASML ‘Crash’

October 16, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, ASML, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: ,

It Really Is, A Crash

ASML down -21.8%, in just two days; the biggest downdraft in a quarter century.

A ‘premature’ earnings release was given as the excuse; like waiting one day longer was going to make the news better.

The important part, Wyckoff analysis techniques picked up on the SOXX index and highlighted ‘something’s up’.

Wyckoff Clues Ahead-of-Time

There was an aberration in volume (here), initially thought to be exhaustion.

Turns out, that concentrated volume was (potentially) preparation for the attempted breakout, link here.

Either way, the anomaly was identified and noted; resulting action was to position short; trade SOXS-24-18 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Market Stunned

Yesterday’s downdraft in the SOXX, was a -5%, loss.

Today, so far, shows a tight trading range in an attempt to test higher (as described here).

At this point, significantly higher, is not happening (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Breakout Fails … Big Time

October 15, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX 1 Comment

That Didn’t Take Long

Well, ladies and gentlemen, it doesn’t get any more clear, than that.

The attempted SOXX, breakout discussed yesterday (here), has failed in spectacular fashion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, it gets interesting. Popcorn at the ready. 🙂

We’re going to move in closer to hourly and take a look.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

Price action struggled just above resistance before imploding.

The wide high-volume bar is obvious.

Normal market behavior is to attempt a test of the wide bar with retrace action.

There’s no guarantee and especially where we are in the structure of this move (possible right side of H&S pattern).

Positioning

As can be seen in the sidebar, SOXS-24-18, established last Friday, was maintained throughout the (failed) breakout action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Attempted Breakout … SOXX

October 14, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX 2 Comments

Will It Hold?

The SOXX, just closed in breakout position while at the same time, doing it on weak energy.

The prior update noted the volume clue that was thought to be exhaustion.

There was a clue for sure, but it was actually preparation for a move higher.

The question now, is the breakout false?

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily (inverted)

Note: The chart is inverted (upside down) to show the perspective from the short side.

There’s decisive penetration of support (resistance non-inverted). However, the energy, Force Index of that penetration is quite weak.

We won’t know for sure until there’s more price action to show who’s ultimately in control, bulls or bears.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s ‘Measured Move’

October 13, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, SLV Tags: , , , ,

Bullish & Bearish

For the past six months, the overall strategic assessment of silver has been consistent; sideways to bearish.

Stategic, because there are always opportunities for bulls and bears if your timeframe is short enough.

Six months ago in May, the high for silver SLV, was 29.56. So far this month, the high is 30.01, a +1.52% difference.

Not exactly ‘sideways’ but as we’ll see below, it’s potentially bearish (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Weekly

The measured move, discussed back in May, link here.

Back then, at the link above was this:

“The coming week could see SLV, inch its way higher to the measured move or continue the testing (possibly, reversal) action it started last week.“

Well, it took SLV, nineteen-weeks to ‘inch its way higher’ to just tap the measured move target.

All of which brings us to the next chart.

If the wedge is in-effect and SLV breaks down, depending on location, SLV, target could be in the vicinity of 20 – 22 area (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When The SOXX, Talks

October 12, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX 2 Comments

Volume Clues

Everybody’s focused on price; nobody looks at volume.

It’s old and boring.

More accurately, interpreting (listening to) volume is subtle. When does one pay attention and when not?

In our latest example, you be the judge.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Look at the huge volume spike on Friday, when compared to volume two days prior (the last up move).

Note the reward for double volume; all that effort and yet, net distance upward (magenta dashed line), is minimal.

Remember, we’re (potentially) on the right side of a Head & Shoulders formation, shown here.

Positioning

Typical with these updates, you can see (in the sidebar) a short position was opened on Friday; SOXS-24-18.

Of course, expectation is for downside action at the next session (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re at ‘the edge of the lake’ as David Weis used to call it.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279