Monthly Archives: February 2025

3.3 Trillion … NVDA, Reversal

February 18, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-07, SOXX 1 Comment

Closing The Gap

Is now, when everybody starts running for the exit?

The last update (link here) left with the question as to whether or not, the ‘gap’ would be closed.

Well, today’s action closed that gap.

Now, we’re in a potential reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, 4-Hour

We’re using the 4-Hour chart as it gives better detail.

As of this post (3:34 p.m., EST) NVDA has formed a 4-Hour reversal bar that so far, is not being challenged.

The index, the SOXX is reaching an (upside) extreme as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Opportunity Awaits

February 17, 2025 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Michael Bordenaro, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

On The Short Side

It’s been over four years, since this post.

The Junior Miners GDXJ are still below 56.44, the weekly close.

Recall, at the time of ‘what’s wrong’, it was absolute hyperinflation breakout mania (as the links included, attest).

Now, with mass layoffs and terminations, will the ‘stacking’ public, especially the ones in D.C. and Florida begin selling everything that’s not nailed down? What about the rest of us?

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

For long-time visitors to this site, the chart almost needs no explanation (almost).

Last Friday was decisive; outside-down, on increased volume.

We’re right at support (upper blue line). There could be some upside retrace in the coming week (not advice, not a recommendation).

If so, it’s what happens during that retrace that may give us clues as to the next direction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

ProLogis … Stretched to Breaking?

February 16, 2025 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-25-06, Interest Rates, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TLT

Reversal and Test

The last update on ProLogis link here, said we had ‘evidence of a struggle’.

That struggle made one more attempt to move higher, posted a new daily high, then reversed.

In the process, real estate IYR, reversed as well; bonds, TLT, closed lower for the week (rates higher).

That brings us back to ProLogis.

ProLogis PLD, Daily Close

The labels correspond to the following S: Spring, U: Up-Thrust, T: Test

With this type of set-up, the expectation is for PLD, to post lower right along with real estate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana ‘Targets’

February 15, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg 1 Comment

‘Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?’

We’re just two trading days away from Carvana’s earnings release (link here).

Is that when the plug is pulled?

The ‘fundamentals‘ of this entity are interesting to say the least.

Shorts Grinding Down

Short interest has finally broken below the 10% area; now at 8.5%, link here.

Is the final squeeze coming?

Carvana CVNA, Monthly

In this post, the idea was advanced, CVNA might move higher into the earnings release; maybe even make a new all-time-high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Using the monthly scale, a Fibonacci projection has been overlaid on the chart.

The black dashed line is the 1,794.4%, projection off the first wave upside (and test) from the December 2022, lows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything can happen.

Earnings release and conference call are scheduled for after-hours, on Wednesday.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver & DOGE

February 14, 2025 By in DOGE, DRV, DRV-25-06, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, IYR, Real Estate, SILJ, SLV

Gold-to-Silver Ratio 90:1

It certainly is a big number, link here.

The assumption these days, is silver’s ‘along for the ride’.

What ‘ride’?

Does anybody (thinking) think, silver and its green energy grift will survive a DOGE attack?

Asking for a friend. 🙂

Of course, just moments after the article linked above comes out, silver spikes and then gets mercilessly whacked.

The miners, GDX, GDXJ, SILJ reversed as well.

Silver SLV, Daily

If there’s going to be a continued move higher, then price action must exceed today’s high.

It’s at least a ‘line in the sand’ to prove the bears wrong (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, real estate (IYR) reversed to the downside

Discussion on that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Airlines, Wedge Breakdown

February 13, 2025 By in Airlines, DAL, DAL-25-01, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, Positions, Semiconductors, UAL Tags:

One of The First Sectors To Go

If we’re heading for a recession as Ed Dowd suggests, link here, airlines (and semiconductors) are typically one of the first sectors to turn lower.

Taking that interview, in full along with Greg Hunter’s next one, link here, the overall situation is sobering.

With that, let’s look at the airlines.

Airline Sector, Weekly

Terminating wedge has broken to the downside.

The prior channel in green is shown to present, channels for this sector have happened previously.

Currently short DAL and UAL (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Bull/Bear Struggle

February 12, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-06, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The Pattern Repeats

Time for the ‘bag-holder’, shakedown?

One thing that can be said, big-cap Nvidia, is posting a repeating pattern:

Wyckoff ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

As long as NVDA, closes lower for the day, it’s at risk of downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The repeating set-up is labeled: No. 1. (spring) and No. 2. (up-thrust).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We still have the ‘break-away’ gap posted on January 27th (not labeled), creating the unknown; will this gap be filled?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, What Could Go Wrong?

February 11, 2025 By in CVNA, ZeroHedge

How About That P/E, ‘only’ 32,000 !!!

A ‘Supernova’ P/E.

Will it blow up?

If so, when?

Earnings release, scheduled for the 19th (after-hours), link here.

Possible Outcome(s)

Here’s a hint of what’s likely to happen, link here and here.

So, one month after the election (and now that all is well) the ‘consumer’ is back at it; profligate spending.

The spending ‘surge’ may have spilled over into the auto sector; possible result, positive earnings for CVNA (not advice, not a recommendation).

You can almost see where this is going.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Carvana has just posted a new daily high.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

History Repeats (again)

February 10, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-04, FAZ, FAZ-25-01, Financial Sector, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, XLF

Another (repeating) Set-Up

This time, it’s the financial sector, XLF.

Top ten components for XLF, are listed here.

For today’s session (as of 12:27 p.m., EST), all but one of the ten are trading lower.

Financial, XLF, Daily

When looking at the chart, the set-up is obvious (not advice, not a recommendation).

Similar to yesterday’s update with ProLogis, XLF, made two attempts to push past resistance … that so far have failed.

Today’s action has ‘ease of movement’ to the downside.

The sidebar notes and open (short) position in XLF, as FAZ-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately:

The short in IYR, via DRV, was closed early in this session as PLD, made a (very slight) new daily high, indicating possible hesitation to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)..

It may still work out but the market that’s moving to the downside now, is XLF (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Big-Cap, ProLogis … Reversal

February 9, 2025 By in Bonds, David Weis, DRV, DRV-25-04, Interest Rates, IYR, PLD, Positions, TLT, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Evidence of a Struggle

Insight from the masters, Wyckoff and Weis.

When at a (significant) trend reversal, we want to see ‘evidence of a struggle’.

Looking at ProLogis PLD (largest Cap and weight, in IYR), that’s exactly what we see.

Exhaustion and (potential) reversal.

ProLogis PLD, Daily

Between the two blue lines is a resistance zone.

Note how each subsequent day (after the magenta arrow) is losing energy … or is a series of energy losses.

With prior updates here, and here, probabilities suggest continued (PLD, IYR) downside or possible sideways action (not advice, not a recommendation),

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279