Monthly Archives: November 2025

Carvana’s Next (short) Target

November 11, 2025 By in CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 5 Comments

Follow The Action

Carvana’s moving higher into the next potential short set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update had CVNA, testing resistance, with potential downside reversal.

It didn’t happen.

As seen from that chart, any time we’re just below support, ready for breakdown, we’re also in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher.

It’s the type of stuff that drives (real) scientists and engineers ’round the bend’ as the Brits would say. 🙂

Why Focus on Carvana?

Possibly the best answer, can be taken from the comments section of this update:

 “There’s such a huge gap between the performance of CarMax and Carvana. And the short interest in Carvana has dropped a lot as of late.”

With that, let’s move on to the chart.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

We have the ‘big picture’, a terminating wedge spanning over two-years along with a breakdown.

Now, it’s the ‘test’ phase with one, and possibly, two.

The level highlighted (insert), is the close of November 3rd, at 332.33 (you can’t make this stuff up).

A (test) close above that level, puts CVNA in another up-thrust position, with potential for downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners, pre-market, Target

November 10, 2025 By in ABD-25-15, Banking, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-15, Up-Thrust, XBI, XLF

Inflation Higher, Deflation Lower

As of 7:55 a.m., EST, Senior Miners GDX are trading in the area of the dashed magenta line.

The prior two updates (here and here) targeted this area as a potential location for retrace and reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Toggling between the two charts, shows price action is actually in the middle of the (prior) target areas.

Other Markets the Same

Several other markets are in the same (retrace, up-thrust) position; specifically, XLF and XBI.

We’ll cover those in another update, if price action warrants.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Tests the Breakdown

November 9, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-15-15, KMX, Positions 1 Comment

Did The ‘Shorts’ Give Up?

Just as Carvana appears poised for a significant move lower, short interest has actually decreased, substantially.

According to data at this link, short interest has declined over -15%, from the previous month to just 5.6% of shares outstanding.

After relentless buoyancy for years, the shorts may have given up just as CVNA, could be poised for the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget, rival CarMax has completely imploded (fired the CEO); down -79.25% as of last Friday’s close.

While we’re at it, the all-time high for CVNA, was July 31st, at 413.33, just another ‘coincidence’.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

As of last Friday, we’re at the axis line of support and resistance.

Volume declined when compared to the previous session, suggesting there’s not much commitment to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trading Results

Meanwhile, using the volatility, Carvana is being traded to the short-side.

There’s no ‘positioning’ as yet (the desired action), but nonetheless, swings are being used for respectable profit.

The last completed trade, CVNA-25-15, went short at 308.48, last Thursday; covered the next day at 289.25, for a modest gain of 6.7%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

How Nvidia Drops, -90%

November 8, 2025 By in 1899, Artificial Intelligence, Elliott Wave, NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors 1 Comment

Terminating Wedge

It could be a slow grind, a series of ‘air-pockets’, or of course, not at all.

Using time-tested classical analysis, along with a dash of Elliott Wave, shows us we just had a terminating wedge ‘throw-over‘.

The video in the attached link, is brief and concise.

Throw-overs are (typically) major reversal indicators (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of yesterday, Friday, that’s where we are.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close

As seen with Nvidia, literally anything can happen. It could somehow recover, go sideways, or collapse.

If price action gets to the lower wedge, then breaks down, the ‘measured move’ for such a break, is -80%, to -90%, lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Crash in The Past

The crash of 1899, shows us that just because we got past October without fanfare, a crash can happen at any time.

A prior update, written three-years ago, describes that crash, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Margin Call

November 7, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX, Thoughtful Money

‘So, It Begins’

“Incredibly Dangerous”; the tagline on the last update for semiconductors, A.I. and the SOXX, link here.

The chart for the SOXX, showed a measured move, to the 320-area.

It never made it.

After-hours on October 29th, the SOXX high was 313, exactly.

Conversely, the high for Nvidia, same day, was 212.19 which rounds to 212.2. It’s all just a ‘concidence’. 🙂

Old Spin & New Spin

Just like that, the press has thrown out the old propaganda and ushered in the new.

Now, it’s an ‘implosion’, link here and here.

As of yesterday’s close, (188.08), NVDA is down -11.36%, from all-time highs.

That’s the ‘implosion’?

Remember, Ed Dowd said in this interview (time stamp: 20:00), ‘when it’s all said and done’, he expects NVDA, to be down by -90% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … ‘Edge of The Wedge’

November 6, 2025 By in CVNA, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Measured Move

Carvana’s right at the edge of a (terminating) wedge that’s been years in the making.

Let’s not worry though; here’s a ‘fanciful’ report that says it’s a buying opportunity, link here.

If there’s one takeaway from using Wyckoff analysis, it’s to ‘ignore the news’, and let the market itself tell us the next likely direction.

So, let’s do that.

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

Well, there it is. The wedge

A measured move (not shown) puts the potential location of a wedge breakdown at approximately the 90.00 area (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners: ‘Retrace’ Update

November 5, 2025 By in Deflation, Ed Dowd, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, UUP 1 Comment

Bounce

The chart insert at left, shows Senior Miners, GDX, have bounced off support (blue line), making another attempt at a retrace.

The lower magenta dashed line is 38.2%, with the 50% level, as the upper line.

If this retrace attempt fails by posting successive lows below ‘support’, it indicates we may already be in the ‘deflationary scare’ as discussed by Ed Dowd many times in his interviews (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the dollar (UUP proxy) is currently in a rally.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Struggle to Move Higher

November 4, 2025 By in Elliott Wave, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Not Happening

Based on price action itself, the miners are refusing to retrace higher.

The last update suggested a retrace to the usual location(s), at least the 38.2% level, the vicinity of ‘wave iv’.

So far, not even that is happening.

Senior Miners, GDX, Daily

Pre-market trading in GDX (as of 8:24 a.m., EST) is lower.

At this point, from the chart above, we can see the index struggling to move higher.

Elliott Wave or not (from previous post), Wyckoff method says the market itself defines the next likely move.

It’s possible we’re not at the bottom of the current down leg; that we’ll post lower before making a serious retrace attempt (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

High Yield Breakdown

November 3, 2025 By in Bonds, HYG, Interest Rates 2 Comments

Is This It?

If there’s trouble, high yield bonds typically break down (rates higher) early in the cycle (not advice, not a recommendation).

When looking at the chart of ETF sector fund HYG, that’s what we have.

A rising, terminating wedge, then break to the downside.

High Yield, HYG, Daily

The magenta arrow shows pre-market trading (as of 7:55 a.m., EST), significantly lower.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Healthcare at The Wedge

November 2, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, Bernanke, Ed Dowd, Health Care, Thoughtful Money, UNH, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-08

Looking Behind The Curtain

Healthcare’s recent behavior seems to have revived an old theory:

The ‘cockroach theory‘

Seen as far back as the late 1980s, on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, but I digress.

So, here we are, waiting for the next shoe to drop.

‘Isolated’

That label replaces the ’07 – ’08, meltdown term of, ‘contained‘.

Using the aforementioned theory, do we really think that UnitedHealth, is an isolated incident?

Instead of presenting an opinion, let’s go to the market itself and see what it’s telling us.

Healthcare Sector XLV, Weekly Close

We’ve just had the largest upside pressure in the history of XLV, back as far as 1999.

After that, it not only stalls, but prints a Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) right along with a terminating wedge.

Note, after the record setting Force Index, further upside pressure has evaporated.

It’s as if the bulls abandoned the market, exhausted.

As Ed Dowd said in a recent interview, link here, these types of record-breaking moves are typically ending moves; not the beginning of a next leg up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279