Yesterday’s action had LABD pushing past stop levels; resulting in one position being closed out … then re-opened late in the session (not advice, not a recommendation).
Price action as seen in the daily chart (above), penetrated the previous low from September 17th, and closed below that low (for LABD).
The open had an immediate rebound higher (SPBIO, lower).
LABD’s in position to move higher to a new daily high. Doing so, would help confirm a reversal’s underway.
Don’t Trust The Rebound
Here’s a link to an update that may be of interest. The first few minutes do an excellent job of eviscerating the so-called financial press.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’ve got the daily chart of LABD, leveraged inverse fund Biotech, SPBIO, above.
Next, we highlight the tight price action and note the failed push lower:
Scroll up and down between the two charts and you can see, this is an area where the market has firmed-up.
Tight action is usually (not always) a pre-cursor of an upcoming move. One side is taking control; about to take the market their direction.
Note: The last two days (including today) show a pivot of sorts … still very young.
Positioning:
The tight stop on the DRV position was hit early in the session. Exit was performed at DRV 4.4336 (not advice, not a recommendation).
That freed-up capital was then allocated to a position in LABD (again, not advice, not a recommendation).
The stop is tight at LABD 18.79.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As is typical of Fed announcements, the market tends to go one way before the speech … then, the opposite way after the speech.
As real estate (IYR) pushed higher before the speech, it got just a little too far upward for comfort. The short position was closed out for one managed account.
As time progressed, price action was clearly setting up a spring condition; seen in the 30-minute leveraged inverse fund DRV, above.
The Project Stimulus Account closed its TZA position (for profit, table to follow) and the account then positioned long DRV, at about 4.49 (not advice, not a recommendation).
The stop is tight … the low of the day @ 4.42 (not advice, not a recommendation)
We’ll see what happens next
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If there’s a major volcanic eruption (Level VEI 5), the entire world dynamic will be changed instantly.
Not saying the La Palma eruption is another Black Swan … no, just that volcanic activity is picking up world wide and needs to be included in any ‘unforeseen’ event situation.
Real Estate (IYR)
Back at the markets, let’s see if everything’s ok in the bull camp for IYR.
The short answer is, it’s not decisive for either side as of this post
4-Hour Chart of IYR:
If we put in a Fibonacci retrace and then highlight the resistance area, it paints the picture more towards the bears:
Price action has reversed from a well defined resistance area … that just happens to be a 38.2%, retrace level.
So, we’ve got an excellent demarcation line.
If IYR price action gets significantly above the 38%, retrace, we’ll close out the DRV short (not advice, not a recommendation).
However, at this juncture, price action continues to retreat from the 38%, area. A good sign for the bears.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The daily chart of LOW (above), is how it looked one month ago. This report highlighted, certain market behaviors repeat.
Now, we have an apparent up-thrust completion.
There may be other equities in a similar (up-thrust) position as of this post … One such potential is Carmax (KMX).
Opinion:
Successful trading, is a game of attrition.
The LOW set-up, that looks to be complete (for a short position) has probably lost all market participant interest at this point.
The i-phone crowd, looking for the next fix, is not going to wait around and monitor for a month to see if price action follows a well tested set-up pattern.
After things get moving though … they’ll be back, as Dr. Elder states; ‘being both lazy, and late.’
Summary:
We’re not shorting LOW (not advice, not a recommendation) as there’re plenty of opportunities with leveraged inverse funds (again, not advice, not a recommendation).
The point of this update is to show, once again, the market, LOW in this case, has gone from ‘spring to up-thrust’; a repeating price action phenomena.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
From his 1923 book (Reminiscences), Livermore’s rules for going short were fairly blunt:
‘I’m not interested in shorting a stock until it goes down and stays down’
It’s possible that’s what we’ve got with real estate, IYR.
This past trading week was IYR’s opportunity to regain balance and attempt to move higher.
It didn’t happen.
Instead, we got a struggle for several days; ultimately breaking lower, late during the Friday session.
Note the volume increased markedly from the day prior.
Summary:
We’re short this sector (not advice, not a recommendation) via DRV. There are times were significant reversals start slow and take time to build … this could be one of those.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The past six months shows the Russell 2000 (IWM) in choppy and impulsive action; both up and down.
The last eight trading days have seen that choppy action begin to exhibit a hint of order.
It does not look like much … until you put in a trend-line .. or two:
Adding to the intrigue; channel width is at Fibonacci 8-Days.
If today’s session closes lower (no guarantees) and posts a new daily low (below 220.26), it adds weight the Russell may be in the very early stages of trending lower.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The gold and mining sector continues to be chocked full of delusional bulls and rabid hyper-inflationists.
Just take a cursory look at YouTube sites that continue to ‘stack’. As repeated many times over the past year the ‘hyperinflation’ narrative is just not happening.
Food price increases along with fuel and shipping, are all related to a controlled demolition of the supply chain.
It’s not hyper-inflation.
It really does not take much research effort to figure that part out.
If there is a trade here, we’re going to leave it (not advice, not a recommendation) and just watch to see where the carnage goes.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 