UE is posting his thoughts on inflation. That is, there isn’t any … just like what this site proposes.
The commenter asked ‘Why don’t you see it just like everybody else does?’
It’s incredible but very telling on the collective mindset of those who are (or allow themselves to be) easily manipulated.
High School Correlation:
It’s not much different than High School (what a joke that was).
The popular kids seeming to have it all while the nerds, the geeks, and the weirdos were all left out … or bullied.
However, the raw edge of real life is not High School. That’s where the opportunity is for those in the very small minority.
Everybody has an equal chance to grow up.
After (years ago) going to my 10-year High School reunion, I realized the vast majority never grow or challenge themselves in any way.
I could see during the event, more than a few were already alcoholics. Deadening the pain of their cowardice.
As it turned out, I realized that ‘popularity’ is a prison. Locking up the individual in a life of fear (of becoming unpopular) and the associated mediocrity that results.
How does that anecdote relate to the problem at hand … the markets?
S&P Review:
It’s early in the session and the S&P (SPY), is trading lower.
The daily chart shows possible completion of the H&S pattern discussed previously.
At the time, it was uncertain and certainly unpopular to suggest the (potential) all time high was in.
So, we’ll see if the SPY, heads lower to start bouncing around the neckline … providing more confirmation of a significant reversal.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
In an attitude that seems similar to this site, Dan gets into who he wants as a relator (time stamp 13:00).
That is, not some hairdresser that just got their license six months ago but someone who’s ‘been in the trenches’ as he says. Someone who was ‘around during the 2008, crash’.
Someone who’s a hardened and tough negotiator.
As the economy, the food supply, energy supplies and now volcanic eruptions/earthquakes continue to destroy the infrastructure, it’s likely the population that stands to survive, will get very focused on experience.
Paper (degrees) hanging on the wall, as so-called ‘qualifications’ are no substitute for brutal, raw-edged competence.
The music and the film footage are excellent. They set the scene.
Perhaps, more important are comments such as this one:
I was born in 65. In the 70s this CCR tune made my fathers eye turn to what I later learned was called the “thousand yard stare”. That’s when I knew it was time for me to just quietly slip out of the room. I could literally see/sense his fear and pain. he didn’t, get mean, just distant and quiet, until the day he died. A lot of you know exactly what I mean. This song did a lot to help me understand him and his friends. Now that we are both a lot older, I only wish I could take some of that weight from him and carry it for him, and maybe give him some space to recover some of his lost soul. I can’t be the only son who has, and still does cry for my father and what he had taken from him.
Even better, is the first comment that replies to the above:
“How many women and children did he kill?”
I say it’s better because ladies and gentlemen, it may be a perfect example of the zombie mentality that could be nearly, if not fully eradicated during our up-coming trials.
Recall, from No. 6, above:
The stupidity today is unprecedented and it’s not sustainable.
Of course, our village idiot’s comment did not go unchallenged.
Many replies followed throughout the link and included a good amount of, “Thank you for your service”.
We’ll end our ‘Notes’ with the following; also from the same link.
“If you honestly want to thank a veteran. Become a citizen worthy of being fought for“
Which then begs the question: Are you, or am I, that citizen?
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It seems that its been going on forever we’ve heard phrases like: ‘dollar destruction’, ‘gold’s going to $10,000,/oz’., ‘rampant inflation’, ‘hyperinflation’ and on.
It takes a very flexible mind (technically termed, “neural plasticity”) to be able to wrap itself around and understand the diabolical agenda being played out before us.
The good news is, Wyckoff analysis cuts through all the lies.
Now past a century old, this technique has stood the test of time.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
No other major index has three consecutive quarters lower.
Even the gold miners (GDX, GDXJ), while in a bear market, still had an up quarter with the one ending June 30th, this year.
So, what does this mean?
Slow At First. Then, All At Once:
The first answer is the obvious one; the air is slowly but steadily (thus far) coming out of this sector.
The second answer is more complicated.
As discussed yesterday, we’ve seen the phenomenon of instantaneous focus shift in disparate parties … a well documented and repeated occurrence in the animal kingdom.
We could see a similar thing with biotech or the markets overall.
As Dan from I Allegedly reported yesterday, the container ship pile-up off the coast and slow unloading is intentional.
The resulting shortages are intentional.
The corresponding price rises (camouflaged as ‘inflation’ by the media), are intentional.
It’s possible (speculation) that by having prices go up and the media touting it as inflation, the public, pile into the corresponding sectors such as gold, silver and the miners … all of which have been heading lower.
More importantly, what this crowd does NOT do, is go the other direction; sell and sell short, stockpile food, water, medicine, tools, hardware, consumables, protection, backup power.
Of course, some of them are.
However, just in my neighborhood as I look around and down the street, there are fifteen houses that are visible.
I know for a fact, only two (this residence and the neighbor across the street) have been, and are, taking preparatory action: That equates to 13%.
Driving through the neighborhood to get to a main road, there are about another 40 homes.
I can see, none of them have an operation garden (or livestock) of any kind: That makes our ‘prep’ percentage go down to 3.6.%.
The real percentage (for the entire neighborhood) may be close to 0.5%, or less.
This is probably a typical number but your mileage may vary.
Instantaneous Shift:
That low percentage (0.5%), gives a clue to how vicious a down-draft could be once everyone realizes they’ve been had.
Couple that with our ‘elephant’ from yesterday, and it may be absolute insanity.
All of which, brings us to the chart of biotech (SPBIO).
SPBIO Analysis:
Not only was it a down quarter but on a monthly and weekly basis, SPBIO has posted reversal and continuation (down) bars respectively.
The unmarked monthly chart of SPBIO, is below:
The next two charts show monthly reversal bars and then a Fibonacci projection to lower levels.
The projection was taken from the all time high on February 9th, this year, to the intermediate low, May 11th; then the counter-trend pivot high on June 28th.
It’s interesting to note; the monthly reversal bars are Fibonacci 8-months apart.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Nearly simultaneously, all three YouTube channels that are monitored closely, have shifted their focus.
This phenomenon, instant change among disparate parties, has been well documented in the science community (before that community became corrupt) with animals on separate continents.
In short, it was found that herds of animals would instantly change their behavior to be congruent with each other even though there was no direct visible or physical connection.
It’s sort of a ‘collective consciousness’ phenomenon.
Dan (I Allegedly) has literally thousands upon thousands of contacts. He’s an invaluable source of information.
He also has the stamina to sit through a Fed speech, Senate or Congressional hearings and the like … then report on what’s being discussed.
Jerimiah Babe gives us ‘boots on the ground’ reporting about the economic collapse so that we can see it for ourselves.
Texas Silver has the warrior mentality (and is not some coward ‘poser’ with useless crap all over his AR), showing us a working homestead and all that’s involved.
Their instantaneous shift in direction is being highlighted; not the importance of their channels which remains at the high end.
From a physical standpoint (like the animals separated by continents) they are not physically connected to each other.
Pulling Away From Precious Metals
Yet, all three have pulled away (in varying degrees) from the ‘stacking’ mentality.
Admittedly, Dan was never really a stacker … but he has changed direction; now talking about procuring supplies, food, water, medicines.
Be aware, there may be yet another collective shift (this time, world-wide) on the horizon.
Festering in the background, is an event that won’t be able to be ignored or dismissed as ‘conspiracy’ much longer .
It’s important to get out in front (if you aren’t already) and position oneself accordingly.
Which brings us to the elephant.
Biotech, SPBIO:
That elephant is, we’re at the front end of a potential mass genocide event (that’s already underway).
Conditions are already set in motion for a loss of the world-wide population of at least 5% – 10%, in the next 2, to 5 years (and that’s probably very conservative).
The chief cook and bottle washer in all of this, is biotech.
LABD (3X Inverse SPBIO):
Several charts are below. The vertical scale has been compressed to show the potential of the nascent move:
Today is the last trading day of the third quarter.
SPBIO, is on track to post lower three quarters in a row. No other major index is in the same position.
It seems to be taking forever but the case against biotech continues to build.
Positioning:
No doubt we’re short this sector via LABD (not advice not a recommendation), in a big way.
LABD has apparently finished its downward testing.
Now, as discussed (here and here), price action is alternating to the upside.
With that in mind, the new daily high of yesterday has not yet been reversed. This is alternating action when compared to the daily high reversal of September 20th.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With all the media press and hype, you would think bond yields have just spiked above 15%.
We have to remind ourselves that everything, that is, every move, every press release, every interview, is controlled.
Controlled for the purpose of “deception” as Livermore put it during an interview with Wyckoff in 1921.
With that in mind, who stands to benefit from the sharp move lower in bonds?
Seems like the obvious answer is, the short-term shorts and the longer-term bulls; especially if the hapless ‘hedge funds’ have jumped on the band wagon to short the market.
Bond (TLT) Analysis:
What Is The Market Saying About Itself?
The sharp move lower over the past four trading sessions, has likely cleared out the weak hands and emboldened the shorts to short some more.
The problem is (for the bears), we’re at a 50% retrace of the March 18th low. In addition, price action has just penetrated well known support.
That puts the bond market (TLT) in spring position.
We can see from today’s open, TLT is gap-higher and now, just below the support level.
We’re at the danger point, where the risk of going long is least (not advice, not a recommendation).
Because the four-day down-draft was so swift, don’t expect TLT to launch into an instant and sustained rally.
There may be quite a bit of testing (if and) before this market heads higher.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The blue lines show a small wedge pattern. Under bullish conditions, price action continues higher into a measured move; somewhere around SPY 449 – 450.
What we got at the open, is below:
The SPY opened lower and so far, has not continued its upward momentum.
It may be nothing; or it may signal the Right Shoulder of the Head & Shoulders, is complete.
As always, anything can happen. SPY may be just gathering steam for an attempt at new daily highs.
However, the action in biotech indicates the bears are moving into the markets; behind the scenes and slowly at first.
Biotech, SPBIO:
Biotech has opened lower (LABD higher).
Yesterday’s price action was entirely consistent with the ‘alternation’ discussed in that update.
For Example:
There was no (immediate) downward test from the September 17th low … and this time, the September 23rd low, there was:
We can see, after the open, price action for LABD is pushing higher (lower for SPBIO):
If we get a new daily high for LABD (above yesterday’s 19.62), it signifies the lower testing action is likely complete; the bears are taking control of biotech.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We have four more trading days until the end of the Third Quarter. It’s unlikely that biotech (SPBIO) is going to make a new quarterly high.
This morning’s early action has LABD (3X inverse SPBIO) essentially unchanged to slightly lower; higher for SPBIO.
The weekly chart of SPBIO, above, has been inverted to mimic the inverse fund LABD … but without the tracking (bias) errors.
The “tight” area of action has been expanded in the next chart:
We can see the wide, high volume bar from the week of 8/27, is being tested by the subsequent weeks and their upward action.
This is normal market behavior that has probably been repeating itself since the buttonwood tree.
Alternating Action:
The difference this time around, we’ve already had the ‘low to upward thrust’ (for LABD) that was negated last week with a test.
That test has now reversed as seen on the 4-Hour chart (inverted SPBIO) below:
Both downward thrusts (September 17th, and 23rd) finished the day at or near their session lows.
The ‘rule of alternation’, from Prechter’s Elliott Wave discussions, essentially says that; what happened last time, will not happen this time.
That leaves two scenarios for SPBIO and LABD.
Scenario, No. 1
SPBIO reverses from here and goes on to make new daily, weekly highs.
Scenario, No. 2
SPBIO continues its downward reversal into the next leg lower; potentially to the Fibonacci projection target (not shown) of 161.8%.
That would put SPBIO, at or near the 3,873 level … a decline of nearly 62%, from last Friday’s close.
Force Index:
Since the inverse fund LABD is heavily traded (2mil – 3mil, shares per day), we can use it as a good indicator of professional trader commitment
I say ‘professional’ because, as incredible as it may seem, the majority of market participants (the amateurs) do not understand or can’t grasp the concept, the big money is made on the downside.
The trading books that regale stories of massive gains, were typically trades to the downside … probably the most famous of which, was Livermore’s well documented short position during The Panic of 1907.
I’ve even talked to a former broker (for a firm that has 15,000 locations nationwide) who asked me when I was discussing the markets (and I quote): “What’s an inverse fund?”
I kid you not.
As touched on yesterday with Random Notes, the level of complacency, stupidity and ignorance has reached levels that are not going to be repeated in our lifetimes.
Market participants are either going to be wiped-out … or they’re going to get very smart, very fast.
I’m personally going with the ‘wiped-out’ scenario as it’s extremely difficult to come up to speed on a complicated topic (reading price action) while your account is being decimated.
Which brings us to the Force-Index chart of LABD:
This chart’s a little different than the rest.
The Force Index section (the lower panel) has been expanded to show the nuances of thrust action.
Even all the way back to the major thrust lower on August 23rd, we can see, downward thrust energy has been dissipating.
Recently, as shown with the blue arrow, downward thrust has evaporated altogether.
Summary:
It appears from the 4-Hour chart of LABD, we’re potentially at a major point of inflection (not advice, not a recommendation).
The rest of the indices (except the miners) are at or near their all time highs … with valuations (P/E ratios) stretched to the highest on record; going all the way back to 1962, if memory serves.
SPBIO is the only major index that’s about to post three down quarters in a row.
Obviously we’re short this sector via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) with the understanding that anything can happen.
This market (SPBIO) along with the others could reverse and move to new highs.
However, at this juncture, it looks like the air’s coming out of biotech … slowly, at first.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The signs continue to stack up (pun intended) that accumulating inedible metals, non usable as a work tool or a medicine is a dead end; for now.
If you already have gold and silver … great.
At this point, we can see more and more, the ‘accumulation’ needs to be storable grains, legumes, proteins, water purification and medicines along with ‘protection. Go to time stamp 4:24.
No. 2
La Palma Eruption Continues: Increases Intensity
The best ‘boots on the ground’ reporting is coming from ‘Bushcraft Bear’ at this link.
You know it’s good as his videos are being stolen and re-packaged by those who can’t think or do for themselves.
Everybody’s so self-important and has something to say, right?
If you want to watch pure media sensationalism (with no actual data … other than lava temperatures), here is just one link among many.
Scuttlebutt (unverified) on the alternate sites; corporate drug manufactures do not have liability indemnity if they engage in pre-meditated homicide.
No. 8
Quigley, Down Under
Does Quigley (Tom Selleck) have ear-plugs at time stamp 2:57???
No. 9
Taboo Scaboo … Goes To The Farm
For those following these updates, we’ve (at the residence) been raising a Leghorn Rooster (“Scaboo”) from a small chick … which is ‘against the rules’.
After six months, it wound up where he was spending more time, sometimes all day in the house. He was not able to go outside because he would start crowing.
Understandable as he was ‘outside’, a happy camper and surrounded by four hens.
Moving him to the farm of some friends is the best thing for him.
Apologies for the camera being in ‘portrait’ mode. I did not do the filming.
Here he is at his new home strutting around.
Look at the size of that comb!
Upon arrival, he immediately got into a scuffle with the ‘lead hen’ … that thinks she’s a rooster.
There was some blood and so they were separated for now.
No worries though.
He’s much larger than the rest and does not avoid conflict … i.e., he’s not a coward.
I suspect he’ll have it all straightened out in short order.
We have ‘visitation’ rights. 🙂
Meanwhile, the hens back at home have started laying.
Leghorns are very productive and will typically produce one egg a day.
At full production, that equates to 28 eggs a week.
In addition, we have about one year’s worth (and planning to get more) of chicken feed stockpiled.
Couple that with a three-tier, raised-bed garden (each bed is 192 sq.-ft., for a total of 576 sq.-ft.) that’s going year-round.
The other side of the yard has ‘mini-beds’ that are used for melons in the summertime.
The main beds are not used as the melons overtake the entire garden … being on the other side of the yard, allows them to spread out as much as needed.
All of our drinking water (including the hen’s) is filtered through a Berkey.
Thus far, this ‘homestead’ has made a serious dent it its reliance on the grocery store.
It’s taken eleven years to get to this point.
We’re in a long haul game (by the elites) that will likely last through the lifetime of anyone reading these posts.
No. 10
The ‘Unprepared’
As a corollary to No. 9, we have the ‘unprepared’.
I think in one of Dan’s recent posts, he even talked about those who are unprepared, attempting to make it look “cool” to not take action.
After dealing with the stupid, the lazy, the back-biters, the heel biters, gossips and the just plain idiots in the corporate world (24-years), stupidity looks like it may have finally run its course.
In a hopefully very rare comment (about myself), I’ll remind those reading, in the corporate career, I was one of the top Avionics System Integrators in the world; performing work as “Lead Engineer” for System Integration on Global Express.
So, I’m not making it up when recalling how I had to deal with the “tiny minds” as I came to know them.
I later went on to build an entire engineering department for an autopilot company that may have committed fraud.
They promised the customer a product they knew they could not deliver. They had already squandered the $200,000 initial payment (out of a multi-million dollar contract) for work that had not been done.
I was hired to build the department (hide that effort from the customer) while making it look like the company knew what it was doing.
I decided to leave that company and engineering entirely after I had chastised an engineer reporting to me, by giving him a poor review.
He then took that review to the HR department where the woman there decided on her own, she knew more about autopilots, system integration and aircraft flight test than I did.
The review was re-written by her; being more favorable to the engineer reporting to me.
I do not recall exactly if I signed the updated copy. If memory serves, I refused.
The rest it is history.
I left the engineering field entirely in early 2009.
The same level of effort and commitment I had in the corporate world, is now being poured into market analysis and other research; like backup power methods, seed-saving, managing livestock and homesteading.
It’s a long haul game as well.
This site’s not looking for the day-trade or even a swing trade. We’re looking for the big move … and spending money (account balance) to get it.
Everybody has their own trading style and time-frame. We’re openly disclosing that ours is focused on the long-haul (not advice, not a recommendation).
The recent reversal in Biotech, SPBIO (inverse LABD) may be just a blip … or the start of something much bigger. We’ll see.
Enough said.
Back to the unprepared.
Even if you’re prepared, it does not mean that you’ll avoid being taken down as well.
Idiots will indeed take some with them to the abyss just from being in proximity; or you (or me) being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
At least if you’re prepared, you might see it coming (for them) and sidestep so you’re not swept up in their self-inflicted carnage.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Actually, all three of the major indices, the S&P, The Dow, the NASDAQ have each retraced to (at or near) a Fibonacci 61.8%, level.
The daily SPY is shown above.
Taking away the Fibonacci retrace levels, then adding notations gives us the following:
It appears we could be at the right side of a Head & Shoulders top.
Price action rolling over from here, then bouncing around the neckline (before breakdown) would let us know, we’re in a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation)
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 