Author Archives: thedangerpoint

September 3rd, 1929

September 3, 2024 By in 1929, Artificial Intelligence, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Holiday Turns, NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX

Top of The Market

Market Crash, 1929

Market reversals tend to occur just before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Is that where we are now?

Semiconductors (SOXX), and it’s chief cook and bottle washer, Artificial Intelligence (NVDA), may have already decided the next direction … down.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

It’s just after the open and this is where we are.

“What do you see?”

Marking up the chart, we have a sell-short indicator (not advice, not a recommendation) right along with a hard stop location (as shown).

From yesterday’s update, those that watched the presentation by Robert Prechter Jr., were challenged with the idea, we’re in the largest bubble ever or at least since the 1720s South Sea Bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

In the sidebar, we can already see a short position was opened during last Friday’s session: SOXS-24-15 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Everyone has their own style and for me, I detest ‘chasing’ the market.

I’d rather make several attempts, get stopped out, then enter again, than watch the opportunity take off because I was too afraid to pull the trigger.

It’s only 20-minutes after the open and we can see the SOXX, is down hard.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Surprise Continues … Down

September 2, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Prechter, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXX 1 Comment

It’s An Industrial (economic) Metal

Things just aren’t working out for the silver bulls.

The metal is down yet another 1% in today’s session.

Not only that as we’ll see below, but we could also be in a downward trading channel as well.

Talk about a ‘hyperinflation breakout’ has all but disappeared and we’re back to the (very lame, by now) excuse that it’s all because of those evil ‘manipulators’.

Leaving delusion behind, back to reality, price action itself, this site’s been consistent for over five months.

That is, silver’s exhibiting characteristics of a downside reversal or sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Daily

From the chart above, we can see the right-side being confirmed over the past four or five sessions (black arrow contact points).

Also noted, there’s a Fibonacci time correlation between the intermediate high on July 11th and the right-side channel line contact on August 27th.

July 11th, was also the SOXX top.

About two decades ago, Prechter first proposed, ‘It’s all the same market’; meaning, that it’s the liquidity in the system that’s moving prices.

As that ‘liquidity’ dries up with more demand for cash (fiat, or not), the expectation is for the market indices to respond to that demand (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Power Goes Out on Nvidia

September 1, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX 1 Comment

The ‘Natives’ Have Disappeared

Just like the kid frantically waving their hand in class (and never called on), Nivida price action may be doing the same.

As proposed in previous updates, we’re looking for signs that NVDA and the SOXX, are in ‘distribution’.

Is it ready, if not already, beginning a long and sustained decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Going to a Fibonacci 8-Day chart, we have the following.

Nvidia NVDA, 8-Day

Price action has hit resistance in the 125 – 130, area.

The scary part is in the Force Index (middle panel).

The prior two price action thrusts had numerous (positive) ‘8-Day’ Force Index segments after that initial thrust.

That is, until this last move up.

After the first 8-Day Force Index segment, there are no more … it’s gone!

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Market … Bombs

August 31, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Look Out Below

The last update on bonds, left us with this:

“At this juncture, it’s not unreasonable to say bonds (TLT) are at The Danger Point®”

It’s now five trading days later and five successive lower closes on TLT.

Wyckoff analysis provided the edge to surmise, the next probable direction for bonds was down.

Now that rates are back on the upswing, the interesting part (get your popcorn ready) is how, or what, the Fed is going to do at the next meeting … Tick, Tock. 🙂

Long Bond Proxy TLT, Daily

If bonds continue lower, it’s going to get more than a little interesting.

At the minimum, one would have advance warning, rates may not be lowered and/or, if they are, that move could be quickly reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Red Pill … or … Blue Pill

August 30, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXS-24-14, SOXX

Will The SOXX Buck The Trend?

Pre-market action (as of 8:03, a.m., EST) in the SOXX is higher at 229.48, but below yesterday’s print high (SOXX 231.02)

During sustained uptrends, and by not printing a new daily low (SOXX 223.62), puts the SOXX in a potential bullish set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, at the same time, we’ve hand what could be considered an initial leg down from all-time highs on July 11th, to lows, August 5th, then a corrective rebound, where we are today.

As we’ll see below, there are two scenarios … the ‘red’ pill and the ‘blue’ one.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

If the SOXX, posts a new daily high the short, SOXS-24-14, will be exited (yet again) to stand aside for the potential gap-fill (not advice, not a recommendation).

From a trading standpoint, it’s not unusual to ‘spend money’ to get into position if the potential reward is large enough.

Note, there has been no ‘money spending’ yet, as the last short trade SOXS-24-13, was profitable by about +4.9%

With the potential reversal of the largest bubble in world history, one could consider the downside opportunity in the SOXX, to be significant. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Persistence

August 29, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-14, SOXX, Wyckoff

Like a Terrier On A Mailman’s Leg

As of 3:10 p.m., EST:

The Cliff Notes version of what’s happening with the SOXX, is this:

NVDA, has not posted a new daily high.

However, the SOXX, pushed to a marginal new daily high, stopped out the short position and now appears to be in collapse (not advice, not a recommendation).

The new daily high for the SOXX, counts as a Wyckoff Up-Thrust and reversal to the downside.

That’s where we are now.

Positioning:

The amateur never gets back in once stopped out (per Dr. Elder). I have long since passed that mental block; repositioned short again (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade is labeled as SOXS-23-14 … charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia, ‘Whack’ & ‘Back’

August 29, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, One Way Pockets, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXX, ZeroHedge

Distribution On The Way Down

It was a wild ride in the after-hours session and the pre-market.

As of this post (8:31 a.m., EST), NVDA is trading down about -4 pts., at 120.70.

The SOXX, is essentially flat, less than one point lower than yesterday’s close.

So, what to do?

Distribution

If Nvidia is following the script of typical market distribution, then it’s a low probability it will make a new daily high above yesterday’s 128.33.

With that said, the action is simple (but not easy).

Since there’s a position short, SOXS-24-13, the stop has been moved as shown in the chart below (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors, Leveraged Inverse SOXS, Daily

If Nvidia is in distribution, it will be interesting to see if price action follows the script as presented over a century ago, in One Way Pockets.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, Pre-Market … Higher

August 28, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXX

Not Good For The Shorts

As of 7:34 a.m., EST, The SOXX is trading unchanged to slightly higher.

From yesterdays close, with forming a minor spring set-up (shown below), today, there’s only one right answer for the shorts.

That answer: The SOXX, needs to open lower and post lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

More importantly, it can’t post a new daily high or SOXS-24-13, trade will be exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Price action is still at the edge of the lake, where anything can (easily) happen.

The SOXX, has formed a minor spring set-up but the expectation is for that set-up to fail with a lower open and lower post (not advice, not a recommendation)

Nvidia is scheduled to release earnings after the close.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

August 25th, 1987

August 26, 2024 By in 1987, 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Dow 30, NVDA, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXX, Uneducated Economist

All Time High (and reversal) For DJIA

Everybody seems to talk about the crash of ’87, as if it suddenly appeared out of nowhere, October 19, 1987.

Digging deeper, the crash started months earlier, at the market peak on August 25th.

One may consider today, Monday, August 26th, the 37th anniversary of that top; when by chance, we’re at another all-time high.

By now, most of us are tired of The Gong Show style prognostications:

‘Crash this’ and ‘crash that’, ‘the dollar’s going to collapse’ and there’s that! 🙂

At this point, none of those things have happened … yet.

In fact, the ‘collapse’ may actually be of a different sort this time around; posed by Uneducated Economist, link here (time stamp: 2:04).

Real & Separated

We may indeed get an ’87 or ’07, type of collapse, eventually.

Or, it may be that sectors wipe-out individually.

However, as UE points out (above, link), the ‘crash’ this time is hidden. It’s the separation of wealth from the ever more have-nots, to the haves, and have-more.

The (Biggest) Bubble

As the Dow Jones is making an historic high, possibly the biggest bubble of all time, the A.I. bubble, led by NVDA, and the SOX Index (SOXX, tracking ETF), peaked out on July 11th (not advice, not a recommendation)

When we last left the SOXX, with this update, link here, it had this to say (emphasis added):

“If we just saw a test of resistance (solid black line), then there’s only one (or a variation of one) right answer at the next session.”

“That is, SOXX, price action (by the close) to be either net sideways or down (not advice, not a recommendation).”

Well, ladies and gentlemen, that’s exactly what happened.

The SOXX, posted a new daily low, closing down -5.86-pts., or -2.51%.

Nvidia is scheduled to release earnings this Wednesday.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Secret’ Lies With Bonds

August 25, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Prechter, TLT, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

What Happens, When It Doesn’t Happen?

‘The truth has no defense against the man determined to believe a lie.’

Unknown

It’s been proven many times on this site and by others more notable (i.e. Prechter), the Fed is not a leader.

They are followers; essentially reacting (not responding) to what the bond market is telling them.

Done Deal? … Not Yet

The financial press acts like a rate cut is a done deal.

However, when looking at the chart (i.e., the real leader), long bond proxy TLT, it makes perfect sense the Fed would propose a cut at the September 17 – 18, meeting.

It’s what happens between now and then, that’s important.

For clues as to what that ‘then’ could be, we go to the bond market itself.

Long Bond Proxy, TLT, Daily

“What do you see?”

There’s a lot going on in this chart; the mark-up (below) is divided into two.

First, is the targeted measured move (that’s been met) out of the wedge formation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next, we’re also in a Wyckoff Up-Thrust condition which may have been tested on declining volume, this past week (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, it’s not unreasonable to say bonds (TLT) are at The Danger Point®

It would appear, the weight of a feather could move prices either way.

The interesting part will be what comes next; Sunday overnight Futures open, is about nine-hours away …

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279