Category Archives: 2007 – 2008

Healthcare at The Wedge

November 2, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, Bernanke, Ed Dowd, Health Care, Thoughtful Money, UNH, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-08

Looking Behind The Curtain

Healthcare’s recent behavior seems to have revived an old theory:

The ‘cockroach theory‘

Seen as far back as the late 1980s, on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, but I digress.

So, here we are, waiting for the next shoe to drop.

‘Isolated’

That label replaces the ’07 – ’08, meltdown term of, ‘contained‘.

Using the aforementioned theory, do we really think that UnitedHealth, is an isolated incident?

Instead of presenting an opinion, let’s go to the market itself and see what it’s telling us.

Healthcare Sector XLV, Weekly Close

We’ve just had the largest upside pressure in the history of XLV, back as far as 1999.

After that, it not only stalls, but prints a Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) right along with a terminating wedge.

Note, after the record setting Force Index, further upside pressure has evaporated.

It’s as if the bulls abandoned the market, exhausted.

As Ed Dowd said in a recent interview, link here, these types of record-breaking moves are typically ending moves; not the beginning of a next leg up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UnitedHealth … Dead Cat Bounce

November 1, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, AMZN, Artificial Intelligence, Health Care, UNH, XLV

Crash, Retrace, Reversal

With all eyes fixated and hypnotized by the A.I. bubble, behind the scenes, other markets have retraced and reversed.

They look ready to continue the next (major) leg … down.

One of those is UnitedHealth and the Healthcare Sector XLV (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update on UNH, was back during the earnings implosion.

Two months later, UNH went on to post a (slight) new low, changing the retrace projections.

As is typical for this site, we’re going to look at UNH from a strategic, longer-term perspective, the monthly chart.

UnitedHealth UNH, Monthly

During the last melt-down in ’07 – ’08, UNH lost -75.60%.

For October just ended, we can see (zoom area), UNH retraced to 38.2%, rejected it, closing lower for the month.

Before everyone decides it’s a ‘slam-dunk’ lower, for UNH, in the markets, anything can happen. Amazon’s (AMZN) overnight launch (on earnings) comes to mind.

Next up, we’ll look at the Health Care sector itself and tracking fund XLV.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s ‘Shocking’ Reversal

October 28, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, Dollar, Ed Dowd, GLD, Gold & Silver, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, Thoughtful Money, UUP 1 Comment

… And ‘Dollar Debasement’

‘When the trade gets a name, it’s over’. Ed Dowd

His assessment on the ‘dollar debasement’ trade, comments on gold, can be found here.

Gold dropped -50%, during the last melt-down, ’07 – ’08; it could do the same again (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, we’re looking at gold (GLD) from a strategic standpoint.

Meaning, it’s a long-term bull market, but where a sustained ‘correction’ may be at hand.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The trendline goes all the way back to the beginning of the GLD, fund.

Note the largest ever Force Index. Past similar actions either resulted in a sideways move, or reversal.

The Fibonacci projection tool, highlighted in magenta.

The projection levels are shown as blue lines. It’s clear, GLD is ‘respecting’ the levels.

A gold, GLD drop of 50% (from the 403.30, high), would put it at 201.65 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Margin Debt Increases

First, it was $1 Trillion.

Now, it’s $1.13 Trillion; discussed here.

While everyone’s looking for A.I. to burst (including this site), maybe the precious metals are going first.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wells Fargo Top … 86.66

October 6, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, S&P, S&P 500, WFC 2 Comments

Chaos Everywhere

While everyone’s chasing after the S&P top, maybe Wells Fargo has already given us the signal.

Back in the day (3/9/09), the S&P bottomed at, or near, 666.7

Revisionist History

It’s important to note, as time passes, finding any reporting of that low (666) is becoming increasing more difficult. Links here and here have two conflicting closes.

The ‘old-timers’ know and that’s what matters.

The Reversal

Wells Fargo posted its all-time high (86.66) ten-days ago, on September 23rd.

Today was a sight upside reversal, suggesting a (marginal) push higher.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Cadence Design … Reversal Ready

September 23, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, CDE, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 5 Comments

Repeating Pattern

During the last multi-year, market melt-down from ’07 – ’09, Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) crashed over -90%, in a relatively ‘well-behaved’ collapse.

‘Well-behaved’; straight down, sideways, then straight down again.

Looking at the current price action on a closing basis, we see the ominous (potential) pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Cadence Design Systems, CDNS, Daily Close

Other Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-ups are noted.

However, this time around, we may be in up-thrust (reversal) condition.

The next earnings release is late October; there’s time to assess action (if/when short) before any Kabuki theater (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Auto Lender’s Implosion

September 21, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, ALLY, Biotech, CVNA, SPBIO, XBI

One of Many?

The last melt-down in 2008 – 2009, was precipitated by subprime mortgage.

This time, will it be auto loans?

Is this just one of many implosions to come?

Digging-in on auto finance, we have chief cook and bottle washer, Ally Financial. Old timers know this outfit as formerly GMAC.

Let’s not forget, Carvana (CVNA) and Ally are (potentially) joined at the hip, link here.

Moving on to the chart.

Ally Financial, ALLY, Weekly

This price action is eerily similar to biotech.

Note how long ALLY bounced around below support (in spring position) before finally moving to the upside.

Nearly a month ‘hugging the lows’, could be an underlying indication of weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next earnings release is scheduled for October 17th.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

July 6, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, ESU25, Gold & Silver, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

Buy The Rumor …

Will the coming week, be:

Sell, the news?

The S&P opened slightly lower, and is holding steady, unchanged.

Gold is unchanged, as well.

We’re ninety minutes into the session, relative calm.

There is one market nuance to consider. Most, if not nearly all who read what is next, may take no notice or disregard.

That’s your choice.

However, the S&P futures ESU25, posted a high at the last regular session, of 6333.25.

Seems like it might just be an oddity (easily surpassed); that is, until one considers the same index, posted a bottom of 666.67, at the 2009, low.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s … ‘Axis of Six’

March 27, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI 1 Comment

A Number Recurring Trough Time

You’ll have to judge for yourself if the chart with closing numbers and axis line, are of importance.

As a reminder, let’s not forget where the S&P bottomed, in 2009.

‘The S&P hit a low of 666, intraday’

With that, this update will be brief.

Biotech Sector Index, SPBIO, Daily Close

We’re using the actual index (SPBIO) and not the XBI, ETF, typically traded as a proxy.

After hours (as of 6:53 p.m., EST) has the ETF, XBI, trading unchanged to slightly lower.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Moving Average ‘Compression’

March 8, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-02, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Biotech, At The Pivot?

The basic idea around Moving Average ‘Compression’:

The market’s oscillated itself over a period of time, to possible point of inflection.

In the example below, with the weekly chart of biotech XBI, this type of compression is rare.

The last time MAs were this compressed (using 50, 100, 200 EMA) was over fifteen years ago, in late 2009.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

Moving in closer, we have an obvious ‘centerline’, and then potential outer channel lines.

Fibonacci time correlations for pivot points, as noted

There’s also resistance around the 88 – 89 range, to be covered in a later update.

Positioning

As stated in the last update, the short position in biotech XBI (via LABD) is the only open position (not advice, not a recommendation).

The major indices were lower over the past week and ‘normal’ action would be some kind of upside to test.

However, as that last post highlighted, there’s (at this point) no ‘Trump Put’; there are no indications the market will be supported as was done with the ‘Fed Put’ after the ’08 – ’09, meltdown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trump’s ‘Not Looking’

March 7, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 1987, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-04, LABD, LABD-25-02, Positions, SPBIO 3 Comments

Not Political … Just Fact

The last time we had a sustained multi-year meltdown (’07 – ’08), there was a ‘ban’ on short selling.

Since Trump is ‘strictly business’, will he try (or instruct the SEC) to save the market?

Based on this link, maybe not (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that’s true and there are no ‘saves’ this time around, then we’re in uncharted territory; at least since the ’87 crash.

Gold Miners ‘Bid’?

The rest of the market’s breaking down, but the miners are holding steady (sort-of). They look like there’re headed for at least one more push higher.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

We’re including the MACD, to show if there’s a new high above the 53.00 – level, it sets-up a (potential) bearish MACD divergence.

This coming Tuesday, is Fibonacci Day 8, from the February 28th lows.

Positioning

The short trade JDST-25-04, was stopped out early in the session. No other shorts are planned for this sector … yet (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short trade in biotech XBI, remains active as LABD-25-02, with stop at LABD 7.44 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279