Category Archives: Bonds

High Yield Breakdown

November 3, 2025 By in Bonds, HYG, Interest Rates 2 Comments

Is This It?

If there’s trouble, high yield bonds typically break down (rates higher) early in the cycle (not advice, not a recommendation).

When looking at the chart of ETF sector fund HYG, that’s what we have.

A rising, terminating wedge, then break to the downside.

High Yield, HYG, Daily

The magenta arrow shows pre-market trading (as of 7:55 a.m., EST), significantly lower.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Markets Blow-Up … A Review

October 11, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Bonds, CDNS, DIA, Dow 30, IBB, Natural Gas, SPBIO, TLT, UNG, WFC, Wyckoff, XBI

In The Aggregate

Whether or not we’re at the ‘anxiety’ point shown on the chart, is yet to be seen.

Markets are open this coming Monday, except for bonds, adding to the weekend angst.

Reviewing The (past) Week

Posts over last week, even the weeks before, showed from a Wyckoff perspective, something was about to happen.

Cadence Design … Reversal Ready, link here.

When The Bonds Spike, link here.

Wells Fargo Top … 86.66, link here.

Biotech (short) Set-Up, link here.

Top of The Dow, link here.

In retrospect and in aggregate, it’s now obvious something was amiss.

The ‘Art’ of Wyckoff

Wyckoff technique is more art than science, more intuitive than calculated, more ephemeral than certain.

We’ll get into what happens when logic overrides that art, in the next update; Nat-Gas UNG.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When The Bonds Spike

September 28, 2025 By in Bonds, Ed Dowd, Interest Rates, TLT 1 Comment

Kickoff Move?

Does the TLT bond reversal, signal the kick-off for the markets?

In one of Ed Dowd’s many interviews, he said to watch the bond market for clues to when the rest of the market(s) could reverse.

The chart of long bond proxy TLT, shows us we’ve just had a wedge breakout and possibly a test.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

If it’s a sustainable reversal, expectation is for the upside to continue (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, that also means capital is (potentially) moving away from equities; so far, doing it under the radar.

Until there’s a big break.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 29, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Car Questions Answered, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, SLV, UNG, WMT, WMT-25-03

Bonds & The Economy

Not getting much attention in the media yet, is what looks like a slow (nascent), upside reversal, of long-bonds.

Here’s an excellent description of what’s going on with the yield curve, link here.

However, there’s one potential error (depending on data used), in the link above, the job market.

Real unemployment numbers can be found here.

It says, we’re already at ‘depression era’ levels of 25% unemployment.

If anyone’s skeptical of alternate numbers, the official numbers have already been proven to be ‘in-question’.

One of the best examples of ‘official’ data, or lack thereof, is this report.

What’s a million jobs or so, between friends. 🙂

With mass layoffs starting, also, here and here, that 25% number above, is likely to increase significantly.

We can even add some anecdotal evidence, link here.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

The price action of the market itself, is telling us where to go for opportunity.

Upside may still be there, if one wants to position in the A.I. bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, for over eighteen months, this site’s been profitable only positioning to the short-side (UNG, the exception) and sees no reason to join the crowd buying into the A.I. mania (not advice not a recommendation).

The current focus is on WMT, a sleeper, not-doing-much, for years, that may be about to get interesting.

Currently short as WMT-25-03, with stop at last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Boeing … ‘In The Pattern’

May 19, 2025 By in BA, BA-25-01, Bonds, Interest Rates, Positions 4 Comments

And Losing Altitude

If Boeing can’t frame airplanes in a timely and safe manner, it doesn’t matter how many orders are on the books.

Record order for Boeing, link here.

Add to that, the debt, just months ago, one notch above junk, link here.

Then, add to that, links here and here, interest rates may be moving higher as we speak. All of which, could put the bond issuance plan (see ‘junk’ link, above) at risk.

One more thing; Boeing has no P/E, and no yield.

You can’t make this up. 🙂

Boeing BA, Weekly

Note, repeating pattern: Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

The sidebar shows already short BA, as trade BA-25-01, with stop at today’s final high or last Friday’s high, whichever comes first (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

May 18, 2025 By in Bonds, CVNA, CVNA-25-02, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, ZeroHedge

USA, Credit Rating Downgrade

Providing fuel to the interest rate fire of yesterday’s post, we have this and this. Website link here.

Adding to that, is the ‘big picture’ on US debt, i.e., it’s “unsustainable”, link here.

The strategy on the debt, is to have the situation (known) in the background; so, when things really implode, one is not caught ‘off guard’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

For example, what’s going to happen to ‘rate’ related commerce (like auto sales) if interest rates launch higher?

Short Covering

Short covering on a mass scale is not a bull market phenomenon.

In the past week or so, we’ve had another near record amount of buying, links here and here.

All Quiet

As of this post (7:45 p.m., EST), the markets are holding steady.

The only position open, is short Carvana CVNA-25-02, with a stop, nearly hit on Friday, at 304.61 (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Interest Rates … Higher

May 17, 2025 By in Bonds, David Weis, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT 3 Comments

TLT … ‘What Do You See?’

With TLT, poised to break lower (rates higher), make sure you’ve got your popcorn ready; the show is about to begin. 🙂

The next Fed meeting is one month away. A lot can happen before then.

Of course, by some unforeseen event, bonds could recover and move higher with rates lower. Anything can happen.

However, when looking at the long-term chart of TLT, a breakdown appears imminent (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds TLT, Monthly

Back in the day, David Weis (see About), never asked me what I thought, or about the next earnings release, or any other non-productive pursuit.

No, the question was always: “What do you see?”

If bonds break lower and rates go (significantly) higher, just think of the chaos.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Breakdown … Part 2

April 20, 2025 By in Bonds, David Weis, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, Interest Rates, Prechter, TLT, Wyckoff

Largest Downside Thrust … Ever

In the past few weeks, it seems like the markets have been whacked with a lot of, ‘the largest, ever’.

Trading in bonds, specifically TLT, is no exception.

While the media and pundits alike, deflect with ‘who’s doing the selling’ (hint: it’s not important), we’re going to look at the harder question of ‘what does it mean?’

Kick-Off, or Capitulation

Borrowing from research and writings of Wyckoff, Weis, and Prechter, when we get such a huge thrust downward (chart below), it’s typically one of two events:

A massive kick-off to much lower prices or a capitulation that washes-out the weak hands.

A bond upside reversal (rates lower) is a common sign of nearing or active economic downturn (not advice, not a recommendation).

In this interview with Greg Hunter, Ed Dowd covers the topic … the expectation for the reversal. However, that interview, was before the massive thrust lower.

Long Bond Proxy, TLT, Weekly

For years, it’s been one failed upside (reversal) after another.

Is this time, different?

The right side (magenta arrows) shows unprecedented thrust and volume.

So far, there has been a weak recovery to 38.2%, retrace of the recent down-move.

If that retrace level holds, with bonds continuing lower (rates higher), it does not bode well for the ‘capitulation’ narrative.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Breakdown … Part 1

April 19, 2025 By in Bonds, Goldman, TLT, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Big Picture

If things don’t change soon, the wheels have come off the bond market (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, it’s common knowledge the (U.S. Treasury) bull market of forty-years, ended in March of 2020.

It’s been nothing but rates ratcheting higher, ever since.

Recession Reversal … Where?

However, a strange thing happened on the way to the anticipated bond reversal … typically, a long-time indicator of an impending recession.

Just weeks ago, during the market meltdown with the largest trading volume ever recorded, bonds did not respond as expected.

The Blip

During that wipe-out, bonds (TLT) blipped higher into a false breakout, a Wyckoff Up-Thrust, and have since collapsed on the largest weekly downside (thrust) energy and volume ever seen.

Next update, the charts.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Other (Bull) Side of Nvidia

February 25, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Cramer, Interest Rates, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

Who’s Is Taking Your Trade?

As a trading professional, you must know (or have a good idea) who’s on the other side of your trade.

Whom are you competing against?

It’s just one of many questions to be asked (along with price action) when estimating the opportunity; whether long or short.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here’s some of what’s on the bullish side of Nvidia, link here.

So, according to the video, tech stocks (and Nvidia) went down because of the U.S. 10-yr Treasury?

Think about it. ‘Likes’ vs. ‘Dislikes’ on that video (as of this post) are over 13:1.

How about this:

Nvidia went down because it posted the largest ever price action down-thrust; then, went through a test of that action, completed the test, then reversed to the downside.

Wow, sounds so clear when put that way. 🙂

With that, let’s get back to reality.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Earnings are scheduled for after-hours tomorrow. Things could get interesting.

In the meantime, we have a demand line and possible channel.

As of this post (10:47 a.m., EST), NVDA has sliced through support at the 129 – 130, level with ease.

We should expect a test of that support. However, at this point, price action is quite weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279