Category Archives: CAT

CrowdStrike … Tests Breakdown

December 19, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CAT, CRWD, Ox Talks Leave a comment

Similar to Caterpillar

Our favorite chief, cook, and bottle washer of the negative P/E, currently standing at -379, is about the same as the last update.

The difference from then, is that price action has got itself into a potential test of a wedge breakdown.

Ever since the ‘update glitch‘ wipeout, it’s never been the same for CRWD.

CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily Close

Yesterday’s action closed higher. So far today, trading is continuing the move.

It’s important to note that volume is not remarkable; meaning, the last high-volume day was at the earnings release on December 2nd, and 3rd.

Unlike CAT, in the prior update, we don’t have a decisive indicator (volume) for a trend break (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s as if CRWD, is banging around (with low volume), trying to find a direction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Caterpillar (CAT) Breakdown

December 18, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CAT, Edward Dowd 1 Comment

Trend Break … Then Test

There’s more than one way to position for the A.I. and ‘datacenter’ implosion.

As Ed Dowd stated in a recent interview, (paraphrasing):

‘Once the unwind starts, it’s going to happen fast.’

With the CAT trend break, we may be there, at the ‘unwind’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Caterpillar CAT, Daily

If CAT manages to close higher for the day, it will be Fibonacci Day 5, from the all-time highs.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Ready … For Reversal

March 10, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CAT, LABD, NVDA, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 3 Comments

The Set-Up, Two-Years Wide

It seems like it’s been forever.

Shown in the chart, Biotech XBI, may be set-up for potential, sustained downside.

This post from August of 2021, describes what we’re looking for; a repeating action, possibly as old as the market itself.

It’s important to note, ‘set-up’, is not, success.

‘Set-Up’, Means: Conditions have presented themselves, lending to high probability outcome (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly Close

Looking at the example with CAT (above link), and comparing it to the chart below, it’s similar except for the timeframe; XBI, is much longer.

Of course, downside action in CAT, reversing back to support, has yet to materialize with XBI.

That’s the point, it’s the unknown; The Danger Point®, where the risk of being wrong is least.

There’s nothing wrong with being wrong, i.e., quickly exiting a losing trade. It’s being wrong and staying wrong, that’s the problem. 🙂

The Nvidia Connection

This past Friday had wild trading action and volume in Nvidia, NVDA.

It posted a wide outside-down day, ranging over 108 points with heavy volume, 113.6-million.

The net result may be the end of the A.I. bubble; potential downside for it, and the rest of the markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Pivot’, or ‘The Channel’

August 6, 2022 By in CAT, Copper, CPER, Cramer, FMC, MRNA, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Who’s On First?

Evidently, according to this out on ZeroHedge, stocks will be a good buy when the Fed pivots; apparently getting back to 2%, inflation.

So many lies, half-truths and pre-suppositions, all in one sentence. Let us count the ways.

Actually, let’s not.

At this point in time, one does not want to draw any undue attention.

A better idea is to see what the market’s saying about itself. This is the crux of Wycoff analysis.

Wyckoff stated a century ago (1902, to be exact), stock prices moved based on an energy of their own; at times, completely disconnected from fundamentals.

Looking at those markets and from my own tracking spreadsheet, 106, indices or equities are currently monitored.

That list will change over time but it’s typically around 100 or more ticker-symbols.

Of that number, the following are those currently in a downward sloping trading channel.

The List

Looking at the charts on a weekly basis:

AEM, BBY, C, CAT, COF, CORN, CPER, CVX, DIA, DJ-20, DJUSBM, FCX, FMC, GDXJ, GLD, GM, HYG, IYR, PLD, SLV, TSM, USB, USO, WY, XLF, XOM, XOP

Others that may be about to confirm their channel:

IBB, MRNA, SPBIO, SPY

The Charts

Two examples are from the above list; the important part is we’re going to choose ‘heavy industry’.

Since nobody can seem to figure out the definition of ‘recession’, we’ll help them out a bit.

Caterpillar CAT, Weekly Chart:

The right trendline’s declining at approximately -67%, on an annualized basis.

Next up, FMC Corp.

FMC Corp., Weekly Chart:

FMC’s in a little better position with its right side declining at ‘only’ – 55%, annualized.

But wait, there’s more.

Since we’re on a roll; let’s throw in a bonus and include a market directly connected to the economy; Copper.

Bonus Chart:

United States Copper Fund, CPER, Weekly

Even with last week’s continued but fading S&P, short covering, CPER could not close higher.

Ruh-Roh.

CPER is heading south at a whopping -79%, annualized.

Ok, one more.

This one’s not quite yet confirmed but we’ll probably get a decision this coming week.

We saved the best (worst) for last

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

From the lows during the week ended June 17th, to last Friday’s high, was a Fibonacci 8-Weeks.

It’s also a near exact Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace.

On top of that, price action is testing the underside of resistance formed during the break below the 200-level at the beginning of the year.

If next week we see a pivot lower, MRNA’s potentially declining at a well-deserved, -84%, annualized.

Summary

We don’t have to listen to supposed experts and analysis ‘banter’. The charts themselves tell us the next probable direction, i.e., down

Who’s on First and What’s on Second.

The media?

Well, let’s just say they might find this link useful.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Price Action, Blows-Up

March 16, 2022 By in CAT, GDXJ, GLD, Gold Miners, JDST-22-02, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Trading The Price … Not The Narrative

The narrative and the price don’t agree; at least at this point.

Over and again, we hear it’s ‘dollar destruction’ and ‘hyperinflation’.

Here is a link to one of the latest pontifications on what ‘inflation’ is doing or is going to do.

After watching that, one is so much better informed. Well, at least we know what the bit-players are saying … each reading from their own (pre-approved) script.

Let’s get back to reality and the price action at hand.

We’ll start with this quote from the last update which references shorting the gold miners using JDST (not advice, not a recommendation).

“However, something that can be done is to use that upward bias to position short at the lowest risk possible.”

That’s exactly what was done during this (past) session; let’s start first with the big picture.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

As a reminder, and for those who may be new, we’re looking for a particular price pattern that has been shown to repeat over time:

Wyckoff: Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Note in the CAT, example in the link above, price-action up-thrusted and then came right back down to support without any kind of an upward test.

Sometimes, it happens that way.

What’s not known of course, is if GDXJ will respond the same way.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

The chart above is a close-up of the action.

The next chart is leveraged inverse fund JDST. It shows the initial entry of what is labeled trade, JDST-22-02 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade entry was just as JDST, price had reached its daily low extreme and was backing off higher (GDXJ, lower); right around 1:14 p.m., EST.

Note the tightness of the stop; just 0.24-points.

Summary

Tomorrow’s action could hit the stop, blow (gap) through the stop or continue upward.

It’s unknown.

What we’ll get for sure, is another data point on what’s really going on with the miners.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Set-Ups, that Repeat

August 19, 2021 By in CAT, David Weis, LOW, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 33 Comments

Late Session

Wyckoff: ‘Spring to Up-Thrust’

Years ago, while reading one of David Weis’ daily updates, he made a comment to the effect:

‘I can’t count how many times I’ve seen a spring, go straight into an up-thrust’.

His observation stuck with me through the years. Being the engineering type, I naturally wanted to know why.

Why does that market observed phenomenon occur?

Pursuing the question from a data perspective, it became clear that finding an answer, would be a never-ending quest.

I abandoned the ‘data’ idea; but the question lingered.

During that time, observation of the markets proved Weis’ point. Some markets tend to go straight from ‘spring to up-thrust.’

One example that’s taking place now, is CAT:

Another example in the potential set-up phase is LOW:

The reason for the phenomenon remains open. Obviously, the market’s going to go where there are orders.

It’s likely, under the right price action and psychological conditions, when support is penetrated enough (amateur) participants sell and then sell short.

Those undisciplined traders continue to move their stops higher (against their trade) as the the market moves higher; ultimately taking them out at the up-thrust top.

How do I know this? Because that’s exactly what I used to do.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.