Category Archives: Federal Reserve

Eyes on Bonds … Rates Higher

September 28, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Michael Bordenaro, TLT Tags: , , , , , , ,

Pulling Back The Curtain

Rates not going lower but higher as reported here, now being confirmed by ‘boots-on-the-ground’, link here.

With rates moving higher now, the next Fed meeting after the ‘election’, seems a long time away.

Exact Opposite

As Michael Bordenaro reported (link) above, ‘everybody’ expected rates to fall because, well, you know … The Fed 🙂

As he states, the exact opposite is what’s happening.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, the curtain’s being pulled back on a lot of things. The Fed’s in ‘control’ is just one of them.

So, let’s take a look at bonds, then and now.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

That was then.

Fast-forward, to now.

Price patterns can dissipate or stay ‘in-effect’.

The measured move target shows where bonds are likely to go, if the pattern stays in effect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, bonds lower, means rates higher.

Get your popcorn ready and let’s watch how the media’s going to spin this one.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Rolls Over

September 26, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Real Estate, TLT 2 Comments

Ruh, Roh

The bond market’s reversed; rates are moving higher.

Real estate’s bid up as if rates are heading lower, not higher; what could go wrong?

It’s been seven consecutive lower closes (rates higher) in the bond market, TLT, starting before the Fed has its conference last Wednesday.

This morning, bonds, TLT have just posted another daily low; if it stays there, will make it a Fibonacci eight days of consecutive lower closes.

Let’s cut to the chase and go to real estate.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

We’re right at the trendline and threatening lower.

Declining volume implies the energy and commitment to higher prices is fading (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Reversal … ‘Outside Down’

September 22, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, TLT, XBI

When Was The Last Time?

The market gives us clues, we just need to know where to look.

Even before last Wednesday’s Fed announcement, bonds were already heading lower (rates higher), reversing the day before.

Tuesday through Friday had successive lower closes in long bonds, TLT.

All of that, to wind up the week ‘outside down’, or posting a ‘key reversal’.

Those don’t happen often.

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

The last outside-down weekly bar (in an uptrend) was over two years ago.

Bond prices declined 32%, before recovering.

In what seems to be a recurring theme, Force Index (like XBI, NVDA) is telling us there’s little-to-no-energy left to move prices higher (rates lower).

Of course, anything can happen, and reversals can themselves be reversed.

However, if bonds continue lower, it’s probably time to get the popcorn ready to see how the media paints the picture.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (fake-out) Breakout

September 20, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-24-18, SOXS-24-16, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

That Didn’t Take Long

It was just four days ago, the mainstream (in this report) was telling us, be on the lookout for a biotech breakout.

That was then … here we are now.

Price action in XBI, attempted to break higher at the Fed announcement.

That move appeared to fail by the end of Wednesday’s session … then came Thursday’s launch higher.

However, that move may have failed as well.

Biotech XBI, Hourly

At this point, we’ve posted a Wyckoff Up-Trust (reversal).

If this is a significant reversal, we’re still in the very early stages; at The Danger Point®

Positioning

As can be seen in the sidebar, a short position was opened (yesterday), LABD-24-18.

That position has been increased in size during this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

The SOXX (short) Exit.

Yesterday, SOXS-24-16, was exited with an -11.6%, hit; so, everyone can see the effects of breaking one’s discipline (not respecting the position stop).

Don’t force the trade … sounds so simple.

Getting back to work, the XBI false breakout was recognized early and the trade opened.

Today, so far, we have follow-through, confirming the reversal.

Bonds Continue Lower

Bonds, TLT, are currently posting an outside-down (reversal) on the weekly timeframe.

The last time there was an outside-down on the weekly, was over two-years ago; week of August 5th, 2022.

After that, bonds declined a whopping 32% before (slightly) recovering.

Now, they’re posting outside-down … again.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Keep Eyes on Bonds

September 19, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT 1 Comment

They’re Calling The Shots

Just like that, bonds reverse; rates higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, it gets interesting.

The mainstream’s already covering; within hours (if not minutes) of the Fed’s move, saying if the economy ‘improves’ rates will have to move back higher; you can’t make this stuff up.

Rates are already ratcheting higher (chart below).

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

The pattern is clear; terminating wedge (not advice not a recommendation).

Pre-market action (as of 8:42 a.m., EST) has TLT, trading down (rates higher) – 0.84 pts or – 0.88%, giving further weight to potential (continued) downside reversal.

Fed Calendar

Looking at the Fed calendar, link here, it’s a very interesting date; ‘the day after’ November 5th.

Let’s see if the ‘rate cut’ is immediately reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

What’s My (trend) Line?

September 18, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, SOXS, SOXS-24-16, SOXX

Nvidia Rachets Lower

Nvidia is trending down at a fast rate; anybody watching?

The mainstream ever bullish no matter what side, gives us this, link here.

Well, if we’re going to get an October surprise to the upside, it needs to happen soon (not advice, not a recommendation).

While we’re waiting for our ‘surprise’, let’s take a look at Nvidia’s repeating trendline characteristics.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close

The trendlines in the chart are exactly parallel.

If we’re in a trading channel, price action is currently at the far-right side (supply side).

The left side (demand side) channel line is a long way away, and down.

Note: After this post, NVDA, has not closed (or printed) higher.

Positioning

Now that Fed shenanigans are out of the way, mainstream conversation is bound to launch on another round of nonsense.

Let’s just hope we won’t have to keep hearing about it (like the rate cut) for another year, and a half.

With that said, short position on SOXX (via SOXS) remains intact: SOXS-24-16 (not advice, not a recommendation).

It too may have a trading channel. The plan is to cover the technical details in another update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Breakout or Fake-Out?

September 17, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-24-17, SPBIO, TLT, XBI, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

The Bull & Bear Side

The last biotech trade (going short) was back in August, as LABD-24-17.

The trade posted a -3.6%, loss and from then, the decision was made to stand aside.

The sector was not validating its up-thrust (bearish) set-up discussed many times prior; price action itself, showed something else at work.

Fast forward to now.

At this point, we’re at (upside) resistance and threatening to break out; biotech has made the news, link here.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

“What do you see?”

Shown below is a wedge formation, the likely premise for all the hoopla in the linked article above.

Also shown, we’re just ticks away from a Fibonacci 38.2%, retrace of the entire move; February 2021 highs to lows, May of 2022.

Possibly as important, the volume (magenta arrow); where is it?

Where’s the volume (demand) for this underperforming sector, rising into some kind of (potential) breakout?

If there is a breakout, which could be as soon as tomorrow’s Fed announcement, price action will be monitored closely.

Bond Digression

The Fed does what the bond market tells it to do (not advice, not a recommendation).

From the last report, the potential downside reversal, was negated and bonds (TLT) are at their own breakout (up-thrust) level.

That being the case, probabilities favor a rate cut; finally, after 1.5 years of mainstream jawboning on the topic.

Back to biotech.

If we do get an upside breakout and it fails … we’ll cover the downside potential at that point.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Chaos & Order

September 10, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX

Rule of Alternation

The SOXX reversal from the July 11th high, to the Monday morning August 5th (panic) low, was chaos.

Wide price gaps, huge intra-day percentage swings.

Then, there was a rebound to the August 22, high when the next (potential) leg down started.

Note the difference in SOXX behavior thus far; a steady decline that’s orderly.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

So far, the SOXX is continuing its next leg lower in an orderly fashion.

There’s no telling on how long this will last.

Possibly, after the Fed announcement next week, one could expect a ‘change of character’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bookmark This Page …

September 8, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Gold & Silver, Interest Rates, One Way Pockets, SLV, Solar Power

We’ll Be Back

No sooner had yesterday’s post been published, than a scant few hours later, we have this:

Silver, hero of the ‘new economy’.

What new economy?

That would be Solar Energy and Artificial Intelligence; two bubbles that have already popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

Going a bit farther back to this post, a proposal that more distribution takes place on the way down, than up.

At least, that’s the way it was back in 1917, when this text was first published.

Is what we see here, touting a premise that’s already expired, not the same (distribution) script of a century ago?

Bookmark & Back

As was done with this post where the ‘Fed Pivot’ was discussed, now renamed to ‘rate cut’, the page was bookmarked and reviewed six months later.

That review was in the summer of last year!

Of course, there was no Fed Pivot (rate cut) to be found.

So, we’ll do the same here but with a caveat.

That is, silver may indeed rise in price for reasons discussed many times (miner implosion).

However, we’re really focused on that ‘new economy’.

Let’s see if six months from now, we’re all humming along in a Brave New World.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver & Solar

September 7, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, CDE, Federal Reserve, GORO, Great Depression 2.0, HL, Interest Rates, NEXA, PAAS, SLV, Solar Power, TLT, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Looks Like Demand Has Evaporated

Those who ‘drank the Kool-Aide’ about silver being bolstered to astronomical heights because, you know, ‘solar energy’, must be a little upset by now.

Just like the fabled ‘interest rate cut’, it’s not happening.

Although for interest rates, we’re just shy of two weeks away to find out; meanwhile, since the last report, the bond market has been bid up again, pushing rates down (again), so, we’ll see.

Back to silver.

We have yet another so-called ‘green energy’ company going bankrupt. That’s not so much news, except for this statement from the report (paraphrasing):

‘Solar demand has declined across the entire industry’

Um, it’s called an economic depression (not advice, not a recommendation).

While we’re talking collapse, let’s just throw in the Chat GPT (Artificial Intelligence) collapse as well, link here.

With all of that as the backdrop, let’s see what silver is up to these days.

Silver, SLV ETF, Weekly

A terminating wedge with an MACD crossover.

We’re at the spot with price could go either way. There has been no wedge breakout to the upside, or down.

If we do get an upside breakout, the position of the MACD is set-up for a potential bearish divergence.

Covered many times on this site; the possibility that precious metals could move higher as a result of the miners imploding.

Adding to that idea are the components of tracking SILJ, silver miner EFT. How many of these outfits have an actual P/E?

PAAS does not, HL … no, CDE … no, NEXA … no, GORO … no, and on it goes.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279