Category Archives: GDXJ

Gold Bulls Continue On

November 18, 2021 By in DUST, Ed Seykota, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, Positions, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Even As The Miners Reverse

After attempting to breakout higher over the past six trading sessions, the miners are posting signs of a nascent reversal.

Even so, the bull calls continue.

The latest round includes two more articles from ZeroHedge:

Gold Breakout Imminent !

The first part describes some technical details that are all true … after that, well, you decide.

Turns out, gold is going to skyrocket because of Russia !

I suppose, anything can happen.

We get fundamentals and anecdotal data as the reasoning for a Russia driven up-side breakout.

The problem with fundamentals is, they don’t work.

They never have worked.

Wyckoff discovered this a century ago when he said (from his autobiography) that ‘stocks move based on a power of their own. That power, has nothing to do with fundamentals.’

Trading genius Ed Seykota repeated that truth during his interview for ‘Market Wizards’.

He called them ‘funny mentals’ and went on to say he nearly, if not always lost money using them.

Gold shhh …

This article’s so good that I have to pay to read it.

From reading the shaded area, we can infer a similar (bullish) discussion to the first link above.

Sorry, not interested.

Summary

This time really could be different. Gold could launch into a sustained upward breakout.

However, the charts (GDX, GDXJ) at this juncture, are saying ‘not yet’.

Maintaining short (not advice, not a recommendation) via DUST … which is now in the green.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tech Talk, Gold & Gold Miners

November 17, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, Positions, The Speck, ZeroHedge

Trend & Channel

Who’s taking the bull side on gold?

If we use the just released ZeroHedge articles listed below, the inference is the average investor’s on the bull side:

Investors overweight in stocks

Gold probes multi-month highs

Futures flat amid inflation jitters

Especially notable in the ‘Gold probes’ article is the statement, gold pushed above ‘key price resistance’.

That key resistance was first identified in this post as the target for potential major reversal.

This Is Now

So, here we are.

Gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ, have pushed above resistance levels. The bull/bear fight is on.

At this point, it’s not known who’s ultimately in control.

A retrace to breakout support for gold (GLD, GDX, GDXJ) is normal under either circumstance … bullish or bearish.

What happens at that support is the deciding factor. A bounce and continuation upward, the bulls are in charge.

A bounce, then failure, nods it to the bears.

That’s why we’re at The Danger Point.

It’s the location where price action hesitates. It’s unsure and can go either way.

The weekly chart (below) of GDX, is marked up with a modest sloping down-channel … declining approximately -26%, annualized:

From left to right, that right side contact’s been in the making for over a year.

Even worse (for the bulls) is the next chart:

Note the right side channel is an estimate and has not been confirmed with additional contact points.

We’ll zoom in on the possible new channel:

Price action made several contacts with the grey centerline and the entire channel structure looks symmetrical.

‘Transitory’ & The Elephant

The reason (supply chain) inflation may be transitory is that demand is going to collapse.

It’s already happening.

Now, that news is just starting to hit the mainstream.

They pretend like they’re not sure what’s it’s all about. So, let’s help them out with some facts.

Embedded within the article at this link, is an actual list of ‘strange anomalies’ that are occurring amongst the most athletically conditioned in the world.

If it’s happening with the athletes, it’s happening in the rest of the population.

Summary:

Early this session, Gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ have, or are testing their highs with inverse funds DUST and JDST testing the lows.

If this is a major transition from up to down for gold and the miners, this type of back and forth is normal.

Positions:

We’re still at the danger point but action can’t stay at these levels for too long. If it does, that would imply the bulls are gaining control and going to move the market to much higher levels.

Obviously, since we’re short (not advice, not a recommendation) via DUST, we’re on the other side of the gold bull trade.

A reasonable stop for DUST would be at, near, or just below yesterday’s low of 16.72 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post, with DUST currently trading at DUST, 17.11, my firm’s position is down a modest – 1.82%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bears Throw In The Towel

November 16, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GOLD, Gold Miners, TSLA, ZeroHedge

A Tale Of Two Bears

Back in the day during the dot-com boom, fund managers were throwing in the towel (‘value’ fund managers, if memory serves) because the markets as they said, “did not make sense anymore”.

Valuations were insane and managers with decades of experience decided the time had come to exit for good.

Of course, it was a contrarian indicator. Those lofty valuations and prices were at or near their peak.

It was not long after when the market cracked. There was a rebound of sorts but the stage was set for a long bear market.

History Repeating?

This is a brief update to document two bear managers that are quitting in separate ways.

One is shutting down his fund entirely. More information linked here.

The other has exited short positions which included getting out of Tesla (TSLA) just before it rolled over.

These types of high-profile events usually happen at or near a significant top.

If the overall markets continue to grind higher, there may be similar retirements and/or fund closures.

Gold (GLD) Update

Before a market can reverse to the downside, it has to stop going up.

Sounds obvious but with the bullish hysteria on gold, coupled with non-stop inflation talk, it may take a while for the bulls to exhaust themselves.

We’re still at the danger point for GLD as well as the miners GDX, GDXJ.

Items of note for the session:

GDX had a double top (same high as Friday) and the inverse fund DUST posted + 0.01, above its own Friday low.

It could mean we’re at the extreme(s) with no more directional thrust or just a pause before continuing with the existing trend.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold, In Mid-Air

November 12, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, JDST, Positions, Uneducated Economist, Van Metre 1 Comment

We’ve Been Here Before

CME

As we’ll see in the charts below, gold (GLD) has pushed above resistance three times in the past.

Each time, GLD reversed.

Two of those had GLD print new post, 8/6/20, lows.

The average decline was -11.3%.

During that time, miners GDX, GDXJ, took the brunt of the action.

The last GLD draw-down (6/1/21 – 8/10/21), was about -10.2%, while GDX got whacked top-to-bottom with -28.2%.

At this juncture, miner’s downside price action looks to be leveraged by about 3:1, when compared with gold.

Gold (GLD) Analysis:

The un-marked chart:

The marked chart has the past three up-thrusts above resistance (magenta arrows) and our current potential; the orange arrow.

Note the typical distance price action traveled above the blue line resistance levels.

If GLD does not move any higher from this point, its current distance above resistance is typical when using the past three moves for reference.

Danger Point:

In the markets, anything can happen.

Price action in GLD and miners, GDX, GDXJ are each at their own danger points.

Counter-intuitively, this is where the risk of being wrong is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Senior Miners, GDX:

Taking the hourly chart of GDX and inverting it, gives us a chart similar to inverse fund DUST but without the tracking (bias) errors.

The inverted hourly chart:

Net downward price action is narrowing; less and less downward progress with each thrust.

This is an indicator we may be nearing the end of the move.

Helping that assessment along, is the next chart. The circled area shows Force Index is also dissipating.

Today’s session thus far, has essentially no more thrust energy when compared to the last two sessions.

Summary:

Price action in DUST, has gone a little farther (lower) than desired.

However, the analysis above tells us there’s nothing, yet, that would indicate an exit of the short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

One has to remember who’s on the other side of this trade; that is, the bull side.

The general public has been led to believe inflation is rampant. The media and various YouTube personalities have whipped them into an inflation frenzy.

Its become some kind of psychosis

Costs are going higher. That part is true.

The reason they’re higher, or at least a different perspective, is available to everyone via Uneducated Economist and Steven Van Metre just to name two.

As Van Metre said about a year ago concerning the actions by the Fed (paraphrasing),

‘Do you think the Fed is going to educate the public and tell them Quantitative Easing is actually deflationary?

No, they will allow the public to have the false belief their (Fed) actions have the opposite effect.‘

Just a reminder of what the guys above are really all about; Some additional info is here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech: Three In A Row

October 1, 2021 By in Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, I Allegedly, LABD, SPBIO 2 Comments

Early Session

It’s Official:

Down, Three Quarters In A Row

No other major index has three consecutive quarters lower.

Even the gold miners (GDX, GDXJ), while in a bear market, still had an up quarter with the one ending June 30th, this year.

So, what does this mean?

Slow At First. Then, All At Once:

The first answer is the obvious one; the air is slowly but steadily (thus far) coming out of this sector.

The second answer is more complicated.

As discussed yesterday, we’ve seen the phenomenon of instantaneous focus shift in disparate parties … a well documented and repeated occurrence in the animal kingdom.

We could see a similar thing with biotech or the markets overall.

As Dan from I Allegedly reported yesterday, the container ship pile-up off the coast and slow unloading is intentional.

The resulting shortages are intentional.

The corresponding price rises (camouflaged as ‘inflation’ by the media), are intentional.

It’s possible (speculation) that by having prices go up and the media touting it as inflation, the public, pile into the corresponding sectors such as gold, silver and the miners … all of which have been heading lower.

More importantly, what this crowd does NOT do, is go the other direction; sell and sell short, stockpile food, water, medicine, tools, hardware, consumables, protection, backup power.

Of course, some of them are.

However, just in my neighborhood as I look around and down the street, there are fifteen houses that are visible.

I know for a fact, only two (this residence and the neighbor across the street) have been, and are, taking preparatory action: That equates to 13%.

Driving through the neighborhood to get to a main road, there are about another 40 homes.

I can see, none of them have an operation garden (or livestock) of any kind: That makes our ‘prep’ percentage go down to 3.6.%.

The real percentage (for the entire neighborhood) may be close to 0.5%, or less.

This is probably a typical number but your mileage may vary.

Instantaneous Shift:

That low percentage (0.5%), gives a clue to how vicious a down-draft could be once everyone realizes they’ve been had.

Couple that with our ‘elephant’ from yesterday, and it may be absolute insanity.

All of which, brings us to the chart of biotech (SPBIO).

SPBIO Analysis:

Not only was it a down quarter but on a monthly and weekly basis, SPBIO has posted reversal and continuation (down) bars respectively.

The unmarked monthly chart of SPBIO, is below:

The next two charts show monthly reversal bars and then a Fibonacci projection to lower levels.

The projection was taken from the all time high on February 9th, this year, to the intermediate low, May 11th; then the counter-trend pivot high on June 28th.

It’s interesting to note; the monthly reversal bars are Fibonacci 8-months apart.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Pushes Higher

September 4, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners 1 Comment

Fibonacci Order No Longer

It didn’t take long for the ordered price action discussed in the last update to break down.

Action in both gold (GLD) and GDX pushed through their own resistance levels.

During Friday’s session, all GDX short positions were closed out (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, what’s next?

If we look at the price action of gold (GLD) we see a potential set-up in progress.

That set-up is the phenomenon of repeating ‘spring to up-thrust’

The daily chart of GLD shows its been in a spring generated rally. As of the close Friday it’s at well defined resistance.

Price action determines market (trading) action. So we’ll see if GLD breaks out decisively to the upside or breaks out and stalls.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Signs of Order

September 2, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners 1 Comment

After The Close

Fibonacci Width Channel

Fibonacci Sequence On Trend

Adhering to Fibonacci time sequencing does not guarantee anything.

What it does tell us in the case of GDX (daily) below, is that price action’s exhibiting order.

Fibonacci width on the GDX trading channel can be seen here.

Order is what usually comes before dis-order 🙂

It won’t take much force either way, to negate the down-channel set up; or allow gold and the miners to descend into bear market chaos.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Bulls … Exhausted?

September 1, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, Wyckoff

Mid-Session

Intraday Hourly GDX Reversal: Signs of Trouble?

It took one more day than expected.

With a slight new daily high, we’re potentially at the end of the GDX rally.

It should be noted: The past two weeks of trading have stayed within the price extremes of the wide bar posted during the week of August 20th.

This is called ‘inside action’; typically signaling preparation for the next phase … whether up or down.

Note, the inverse fund DUST pushed just 0.02 points (DUST, 19.78) below our stop level (not advice, not a recommendation).

That position was elected to be maintained … we’re still short.

The hourly unmarked chart of GDX is below:

Next, we invert the chart to mimic the inverse fund DUST:

Now, comes the mark-up:

From Wyckoff’s writings all the way back to circa 1910, he discussed ‘shortening of the thrust’.

When net progress becomes less and less … we know we’re nearing the end of the move.

Throw into the mix the high level of resistance at the GDX 33.00, and probabilities favor the downside … upside for DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Bulls … Time To Hide?

August 30, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Van Metre 1 Comment

Late Session

GDX Breakdown, Draws Nigh?

We’re not there yet and anything can happen in the meantime.

However, Senior Miner’s GDX, price action has moved lower during this session as expected.

Today has offered up one more clue for the bears provided GDX closes lower.

That is, we may have a channel confirmation:

Fibonacci time sequences are not necessarily always at price extremes. As shown above, they can define the width of a trading channel as well.

If this short (sell) set-up fails (GDX moves higher), we now have a definitive stop area for inverse fund DUST (not advice, not a recommendation); somewhere around: DUST 19.80 – 20.00.

Steven Van Metre in his last update, gave data on how the dollar is in a rally and nearing breakout position.

So far, there’s still a negative correlation between the dollar, gold, and gold miners.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Knock Three Times …

August 28, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, Project Stimulus 1 Comment

Gold, GDX Warning: Breakdown Imminent?

It’s true when price action rebounds off a level, whether support or resistance, that level is confirmed.

However, personal (mental) bias, like the rabid hyperinflation ‘dollar destruction’ gold bulls, collectively have their minds so twisted, every bounce off so called support, is a buying opportunity.

That kind of blindness can set oneself up for (financial) disaster.

Well, we’re about to see if the current bounce was a buying opportunity or harbinger of a “free fall” breakdown.

Price action’s the final say. So, let’s take a look at what its been saying about the latest move.

Un-marked weekly chart of Senior Mining (ETF) Index GDX:

Next, comes the support line and contact points identified:

Now, comes the important part. Each rebound off support has less upward travel than before:

The right-most green arrow (upward travel), may or may not be complete. One fact in favor of completion is the significant amount of resistance around GDX, 33.00.

Price action has spent six weeks transacting in this area. Three weeks above support and now three weeks below.

Positioning:

We’re at the danger point; risk of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, price action does not need to go far to either support or negate a short trade set-up.

With that in mind, the Project Stimulus account is short this sector via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.