It’s about 80-minuts before the close and already, IBB’s printed more single day volume than in the past four years.
There must have been a huge number of stops at the resistance area for price action to launch so decisively.
Now, as we get near the close we’ll see if it was just short covering, or if there’s really some kind of demand to hold and move prices higher.
The 4-Hour chart (below) shows a potential reversal as we head into the closing hour.
It’s the trader’s discretion on how to interpret and position (if warranted) in this environment. This site does not make recommendations.
However, based on the technical and fundamental data provided over the past year, we’re expecting at some point, a complete collapse of the sector; bottoming-out sometime in mid to late October, this year; not advice, not a recommendation.
If IBB continues to push decisively upward from here, meaning, tomorrow’s session is follow-through action, it will most likely (but not fore sure) invalidate the ‘collapse’ scenario.
We’re at the danger point
One of many other factors helping the bearish assessment is the release of this report:
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Well, none almost, other than to be reminded the powers that be have absolute contempt for those that aren’t in their global club.
You have to wonder, what’s next? Maybe it’s time for the (fake, or real) alien invasion.
Maybe we’ll have a few more ‘planned’ cyber attacks … who knows?
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, it’s more than a bit interesting the biotech sector with its quarterly reversal, weak 23.6% retrace, and now continuing downside (so far), is not a major topic of discussion.
This morning, Moderna’s (MRNA) attempting a breakout. It won’t look so good if it can’t close higher for the day.
The last update showed MRNA, insiders bailing out.
SPBIO looks to be establishing or confirming a downside trend-line. More on that if/when there’s confirmation.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Then, way back to “Reminiscences“, published in 1923.
As a reminder, we’re looking at biotech (SPBIO) from the perspective of being short the market.
The primary vehicle for that short, is highly leveraged inverse fund, LABD.
The last update gave a hint at the desired timeframe.
If the markets are in the process of reversing, ultimately going to the long awaited (since 2009), final draw-down (i.e. crash), then a likely bottom would occur where they (almost) always occur; during the third week of October.
In a nutshell, that’s the time frame.
Conversely, price action is the final arbiter. If biotech winds up effectively saying ‘not now’, well then, it has the final say.
Back to ‘Entries & Exits’.
One of the traders highlighted in the book (in addition to Weis), was William Doane; former Head Technician for Fidelity.
His timeframe is much longer than the typical market participant. He, like Weis are looking at monthly, quarterly and yearly charts.
That fact in and of itself, provides an edge.
One of the main take-aways from his section was (paraphrasing):
‘The first correction is the hardest. If you can get through that, it’s typically smooth sailing from then on’.
The biotech short via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) may be at that point now. Painful to watch but necessary.
Next, we go to ‘Reminiscences’.
Those who have read the book, know all about ‘Turkey’; Mr. Partridge.
As the book states, he was much older than the rest who frequented the brokerage. Also, he did not appear to be that active in the markets (thus minimizing his transactions). He was interested in the big move.
The admonition from Partridge, was: ‘Don’t lose your position’. Don’t exit out, expecting a pull-back … that ultimately never comes.
So, we have two examples; three if you include Weis that begin from the very long time-frames and work inward.
Now, on to the market:
The long term, Quarterly analysis has already been done; linked here.
The chart in the link, is from last quarter and since then, (during this quarter), we’ve made new lows.
On the fundamental side, evidence is building by the day on what the ‘speck’ protection is all about.
If you’re really interested in the big picture, here’s a link to a five-plus hour presentation that spells it all out.
Momentum indicators MACD, on the Monthly and Weekly remain in a downtrend.
Using IBB, as the proxy for Quarterly momentum (not enough data for SPBIO), the indicator is flat.
Momentum’s in favor of (maintaining) a short position; not advice, not a recommendation.
The monthly chart of SPBIO (inverted), has price action coming back to former resistance (now support). This is normal market behavior.
Recall, that on the downside, if there is some kind of ‘event’, markets can slice through apparent support levels with ease.
With that in mind, on the inverted chart above, the next major ‘resistance’ level may or may not be of consequence.
Summary:
Each trading week is important.
However, next week will likely a pivotal one; providing more information on whether to maintain short or exit and stand aside; not advice, not a recommendation.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Even in his trading video, the late David Weis remarks … ‘I have a preference for down markets …’
Profits come nearly twice as fast and the bottom is easier to detect.
With that in mind, the daily chart of inverse biotech fund LABD, has been noted showing both emotions:
Extreme fear shows up as spikes at the trend line. Also noticeable, the spikes are widely spaced.
Greed on the other hand, is spaced closer and harder to detect. Remember, we’re looking at the inverse (LABD); fear and greed locations are swapped.
Moving on to the set-up, the Wyckoff spring:
Considering the current situation … i.e. valuations, margin debt, retail participation extremes, the above forecast is a modest one.
A potential doubling in value (measured move).
The expectation is for LABD to contact the upper trading range somewhere around 27.50 (not advice, not a recommendation).
If it does and then breaks to the upside, a standard measured move (trading range distance, magenta lines) would target the 40-area.
At this juncture, the market (SPBIO) is giving no overt indication of imminent collapse.
This is how markets work.
If we do get the expected wipeout, be prepared for the usual suspects to come out and say ‘No one saw it coming.’
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Time and technical have come together; indicating potential downside collapse in biotech.
Collapse potential is immense and has been for years.
Fibonacci 55 days after the 2/10/21, highs, biotech (SPBIO), pivots decisively lower.
Of all the major indices, biotech on a percentage basis, is the downside leader.
Rightly so.
Fundamentally, it’s poised to disintegrate with its illegal, Mengele style campaign of medical experimentation.
Who knows if that full disclosure will happen.
The ‘controllers’, the oligarchs, may come up with some other mechanism to usurp the media, the internet and keep it all under wraps.
However, it looks like the tide’s turning.
Remember, the market leads the news; not the other way around.
If biotech goes into its well deserved collapse, downside action itself will be the catalyst for exposure.
For now, SPBIO is pivoting lower; LABD higher.
The daily chart of LABD shows the Fibonacci time relationship. From low to low; Fibonacci 55 days.
Yesterday, the 28th, was Day 55.
Today, LABD has already posted a new daily high … weighting probability to more upside (SPBIO, lower).
The next chart has the potential trading channel.
It looks aggressive.
However, the market itself has defined the trend.
Shown, in pervious updates, this trend angle has been repeated at least four times from March 5th, LABD high, to yesterday’s low.
It’s no guarantee. We’ll let subsequent price action confirm or negate the right side trend.
As of this post, LABD continues to push aggressively higher.
Our ‘project’ has an open position in LABD.
Without revealing specifics of that position (discussed previously), it’s represented in the table below:
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
4:36 p.m. EST: Updated with additional data below in red
10:26 a.m. EST:
If the adverse event database can be trusted (a question in itself), the number of people recently injected with ‘speck’ protection, has fallen off a cliff.
The April 16th update linked here, had this to say:
“You would think it’s just a matter of time before this reaches some kind of tipping point; where enough of the herd realizes all at once, the lie.”
The abrupt halt in reaction uploads would indicate a jump in collective awareness the ‘speck’ is a lie … just in time for the next ‘event’ (likely to be food supply or cyber disruption).
Before we get to any market analysis, there’s one more thing concerning biotech … the masks.
Since investigative reporting has been usurped by controlling entities pushing false narratives, information now has to come from the individual(s).
That data is typically in raw form; unlike the slick presentations (i.e. lies) we’ve grown used to on the mainstream.
It’s now up to the researcher to do the leg-work on what’s real or not.
However, this link, appears to be above-board. Download the file if your viewer will not work.
A medical professional has investigated (internet rumored) mask contamination and has found disturbing results.
She is visibly shaken by her findings … probably realizing for the first time, the level of evil that’s directing controlling interests, world events.
She can’t fathom that someone would intentionally put parasites in a product that’s being pushed by the mainstream for us (and children) to wear ‘two … or three’.
Unfortunately, that’s where we are.
This author knows for a fact, a certain big-box home improvement store, handed out boxes of these same (type of) masks ‘for free’ to its employees.
When those employees for the most part, refused to wear them …. it then became a corporate directive, subject to termination.
Most of those employees eventually replaced the paper with a nylon-based covering. However, looking at the video, it seems like just one exposure to the paper masks is enough to inflict unknown levels of harm.
Intentional parasitic contamination … one more brick, in biotech.
You’ll have to make your own call. Both sides (parasites non parasite) are presented in this update.
Since the author of these posts has never worn a toilet-paper mask (or any mask), what’s on them does not apply from a personal standpoint.
Nonetheless, many in the public can be seen using this type of so-called protection.
Either way, the technical condition of biotech remains …
Moving on to the markets:
The chart of LABD (3X Inverse SPBIO), continues to move higher.
Our project position is being maintained (see table) and the stop has been moved up as shown:
Obviously, there’s a lot going on in the markets and elsewhere. There’s no telling when or if it will all break loose.
No matter; If that happens, we’re positioned (not advice, not a recommendation) in a market that’s already moving lower … pushing LABD higher.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
You have to wonder; once the ruling oligarchs are finished with the first (‘speck’) round, moving on to the next fabricated crisis, if biotech’s not going to be thrown under the bus.
After all, its served its purpose.
According to comments posted beneath this article, about 33%, of the U.S. population have (apparently, voluntarily) injected themselves.
According to this link, it’s about 24%, of the population.
Either way, it’s a lot … in the tens of millions.
It’s a crazy business model; systematically destroy your customer base.
Said many times in these updates, attempting to match fundamentals to technicals is usually not successful.
Sector Analysis:
Referring back to Ed Seykota, in his ‘Market Wizards‘ interview, he said using fundamentals as a basis for positioning, rarely if ever, worked.
Still, it’s undeniable something very wrong is going on in the sector.
Our market table has been updated and we’ve included the S&P Biotech Sector, SPBIO:
All markets are within fractions of a percent of all time highs except for semis, mid-caps and biotech.
The S&P biotech is down a whopping, 25%.
It’s already well in bear market territory.
Positioning:
Since we’re working the short side (not advice, not a recommendation), the focus is on biotech and specifically LABD.
The fund attempts to track the 3X inverse of SPBIO.
With that kind of leverage, LABD has significant downside bias. Positioning (from experience) is best suited when the move is sustainable and persistent.
Looking at the chart of LABD, we could be there. At this time, the fund is trending higher at a stiff +820%, on an annualized basis.
Project Stimulus:
Our Project account is positioned as shown. Since the account’s not large enough to enable leverage as determined by the broker, we just have to wait it out till it gets there (currently set at $2,000).
Summary:
Stated in The Rich And The Super Rich (if memory serves), not since Marie Antionette have the ruling oligarchs allowed themselves to be out in the open.
Seems like her demise cured them of having to get (direct) attention.
That would mean, people in the public eye at this point, are just useful idiots. And when their usefulness has run its course … ???
From watching them, it’s obvious they’re delusional … thinking they can tame evil (even harming children) and escape wrath.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Amgen’s sotorasib news could be its all time high.
Immediately following that announcement, AMGN went into a 20% decline (‘sign of supply’).
In Wyckoff terms, we can look at the action from late January to now as a massive ‘up-thrust’ (false breakout).
That up-thrust is now being tested … with another breakout attempt.
If that’s the case and the test fails with price action retreating from here, then AMGN’s set-up for a significant downward reversal.
Significant in that we’re not (ever) coming back to these levels.
That statement might seem hyperbolic and it very well could be.
However, when one looks at reports like this, insiders are bailing out; leaving “retail” holding the bag as usual.
Fundamentals:
Although not directly related to AMGN, we have yet another horror show in the biotech arena.
The wheels are falling off the ‘speck’ false narrative; tragically so.
The following is taken from the comment section of the video post:
From the guy who filmed :
“Less than 5 minutes from getting God knows what injected inside them the two people to my left starting having seizures. First the gentlemen in the red car was watching in shock as the driver next to him was having a seizure. Little did he know he would have one right after him. I called the medics to help him. They have a procedure where after you get the shot you have to wait in the car for 15 min and if something goes wrong to honk your horn and someone will show up. Well these folks to my left just passed out into seizures with no warning.
You would think it’s just a matter of time before this reaches some kind of tipping point; where enough of the herd realizes all at once, the lie.
Positioning:
The last post has us breaking the rules. Was that the right thing to do?
This morning’s price action has the answer: Yes.
The Project Stimulus table has been updated to include the new (hard) stop level. With LABD currently up a good 5.50%, and looking to move higher, it’s not likely the stop will be hit.
There is one caveat: As of this post, IBB has not printed a new daily low. That leaves the (slight) possibility open for a move higher.
Several attempts have been made to short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation). It looks like the current attempt is underway.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
‘Always follow the rules’ was the admonition of Ed Seykota.
Almost in the very next sentence of his interview he said, ‘know when to break the rules’.
Could this be it?
At trader’s discretion, we’re maintaining short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
More analysis to follow.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 