Category Archives: Positions

Real Estate, Odds in Your Favor

January 18, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-01, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Wyckoff

Contact Points

The last update showed the possible (downside) reversal set-up for real estate sector, IYR.

This update shows the largest cap equity in that sector (source, TC2000), ProLogis, PLD, and its current position.

ProLogis, PLD, Weekly

We’ve had essentially sideways action for over two years; trading between (approx.) 90 – 130.

In the past three months, price action has established what looks to be a downtrend and possibly a trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the relatively heavy (upside) volume from last week, the green bar.

In Wyckoff terms, that volume is potential ‘effort vs. reward’, or exhaustion if PLD, continues lower from here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Russell, Goes Off-The-Rails

January 7, 2025 By in IWM, Positions, Russell 2000, TZA, TZA-25-01

The ‘Coil’ Snaps

Just yesterday, was this:

“When price action gets tight, something’s about to happen.”

So, it did, with this morning’s session; decisively down.

There may also be confirmation of at least one trading channel; shown in the chart.

Russell 2000, ETF, IWM, Daily

Price action didn’t quite make it to a 38.2%, retrace before reversing lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

On the larger, weekly time frame (to be discussed later), there has also been an up-thrust reversal.

So, we have an up-thrust (daily), within an upthrust (weekly).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla: The (short) Set-Up

January 5, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX, Positions, TSLA, TSLS, TSLS-25-01 Tags: , , , ,

‘Shorting-Out’, at The Top?

It’s likely we’ll know on Monday, whether or not last Friday’s action was a test (and completion) of the up-thrust reversal shown in the chart.

That reversal and potential test, coincides with ‘good news’, ‘bad news’, link here.

Tesla TSLA, Daily Close

Five years of price action.

Moving in closer to nine months of action.

The ‘resistance’ level goes all the way back to November 4th, 2021, with an all-time high close of 409.97.

Note: Friday’s close of 410.44, was only +0.11%, above the prior (closing) all-time high.

Another Carvana?

Similar to Carvana and its relation to CarMax, i.e., bloated market cap, Tesla has the largest market cap of all (major) auto manufacturers, link here.

Going back to this post on Carvana, volatility reaches a minimum; CVNA, is down a stiff -27.4%, since then.

Are we about to see similar action for Tesla?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners: The (short) Set-Up

January 4, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-01, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, SILJ Tags: , , , ,

Setting The Tone, For 2025?

The chess game continues.

If it really was as simple as ‘dollar collapse’ and ‘inflation’, why have the miners GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ, been in a bear market since 2011; fourteen years ago?

During that time, we’ve had rallies for sure. However, the fastest (major) moves with 2016, the exception, have been to the downside.

Drilling down a bit on Senior Miners GDX, we’ll look at the 4-Hour chart.

Senior Miners, GDX, 4-Hour

In the past three months, depending on one’s timeframe, there were trading opportunities both up and down.

With that said, we’re now at the far-right edge.

There’s a (potential) set-up: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust‘ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As noted in yesterday’s update, right around mid-session, a short was opened: DUST-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, the expectation is for GDX, to decline immediately from here (DUST, higher) at the next session.

Anything else, suggests a trade failure.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla Tops-Out … (again)

January 3, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-01, DXD, DXD-25-01, Positions, TSLA, TSLS, TSLS-25-01 Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

This Time … Maybe

We’ll cut straight to the chase.

All previous updates on Tesla (TSLA) have been technical, indicating some level of curiosity.

This time, is different.

Currently positioned short TSLA, early in this session via inverse fund TSLS (not advice, not a recommendation)

Telsa 1X Inverse Fund, TSLS, Daily

The ‘support’ area shown is actually resistance on the non-inverted chart of TSLA.

As of this post (12:51 p.m., EST), low for inverse fund TSLS is 8.14; if held for the day, it will be the hard stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sentiment Warning(s)

Sentiment, Volume, Price; typical model for reversal.

In the case of Tesla, we may have all three (not advice, not a recommendation).

Position(s)

One gets the sense the beginning of this year, has the market sorting itself out.

A brief summary of trade activity for today (not advice, not a recommendation):

DXD-25-01, closed with -1.56%, loss.

TSLS-25-01, opened as detailed above

DUST-25-01, opened … depending on price action, details to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, ‘Double’ Divergence

December 13, 2023 By in Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-23-11, SOXX 1 Comment

Weekly & Daily … Bearish MACD

With the SOXX at 52-week highs, price breaking out above resistance, Fed announcement hours away, the index is showing signs of reversal, posting a bearish divergence on two timeframes.

Both weekly and daily MACD, show divergence.

Add to that, we now have the best ‘inter-Fed’ market performance since 2009.

Semiconductor SOXX, Weekly

The chart shows we’re at The Danger Point®

As this update is being created, the SOXX is pulling back slightly, from its early session up-side; currently trading (11:45 a.m., EST) near unchanged @ 544.39.

Positioning

As one would expect, short positions are already in-place (not advice, not a recommendation).

Entries via 3X Leveraged Inverse SOXS, @ 7.14 and 7.07; Hard Stop TBD, but likely to be today’s session low @ SOXS 6.97 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As a housekeeping note, all other market positions have either been closed or stopped-out.

At The Extreme

SOXX price action could continue higher from here. 

If there’s even a hint of renewed upside pressure, the existing short position is likely to be closed … quickly, possibly without notice (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Bellwether … CRSP

December 9, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CRSP, IMGN, LABD, LABD-23-16, MRTX, Positions, SOXS-23-10, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI

Repeating Trend, Cashing-Out

Once again, there’s a repeating trend of (potential) reversal.

This time, it’s biotech, specifically CRISPR Therapeutics, CRSP.

Before we get into it, a point of housekeeping; SOXS-23-10, has been closed, exited at SOXS 8.43; loss is manageable at -2.9% (not advice, not a recommendation).

CRSP, Market Proxy

CRSP, is being used as the proxy for biotech as it’s number five in market cap at this link.

However, the first two IMGN, and MRTX, are buyout (acquisition) candidates, eventually to be removed, making CRSP, number three with no additions.

Set-Ups That Repeat

Market behaviors repeat. Set-Ups repeat. The title above, was from a post over two years ago, link here.

Taking a look at CRSP, we have the same pattern.

CRISPR Therapeutics CRSP, Weekly

The volume spike for the week, is the largest ever; ergo, someone is selling.

From a CRSP, price action catalyst and news standpoint, the link is here.

This coming Wednesday, is the Fed interest rate announcement, link here.

Wyckoff said, ‘somebody always knows something and that “something”, shows up on the tape’.

It’s likely those that know, are cashing out ahead of the meeting (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

If it’s presented on this site, a position has already been established or it’s in preparation for entry.

So, it is with biotech.

A biotech short was opened this past Friday via LABD with two entries: LABD 13.93 and LABD 14.17.

Trade is labeled, LABD-23-16

Hard Stop @ LABD 13.82, for a combined (both entries) risk of 0.23-pts/share (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX: Gap Close, Then Lower

December 6, 2023 By in Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-23-10, SOXX

Look For Continued Downside Pressure

At the open, SOXX launched higher, closed its gap near 515.0, and then began an immediate retrace.

Price action has oscillated for the first couple of hours, testing the gap and attempting to move higher.

So far, it’s not happening.

If we get a lower close for the day, it’s likely to be nasty business for the bulls from here on out.

As this update is being created (12:08 p.m., EST), price action is getting nearer to posting negative for the day; currently trading at SOXX 510.50

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

We’re using a bar chart as it’s easier to see the gap area that was closed early this session.

Warning: However unlikely, SOXX price action could begin to exhibit buoyancy for an attempted move higher; anything can happen.

Positioning

The short position, SOXS-23-10 remains active (not advice, not a recommendation).

From the original entry, SOXS position size has been increased by over 60%

At the close of the day, the stop is likely to be moved from its current level (SOXS 8.30), to just below today’s session low @ SOXS 8.38 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

There’s a ‘Hole’ in The SOXX

December 2, 2023 By in NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-23-10, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Two-Weeks of Churn

The SOXX, has been churning at 510- 525, for over two weeks with no net progress.

What happens if it can’t go materially higher?

It’s reasonable to think, good news is already out; evidenced by Nvidia’s price action.

If we look at NVDA, using it as the proxy, it has reversed off all-time highs, slipped below support and on Friday, came back to test; a weak one at that (so far).

SOXX Highs, Long Ago

The SOXX posted its all-time-highs nearly two years ago with the most recent rebound in August, this year.

Now, after a subsequent move lower, price action has come back up to test, forming an apparent hole.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

The chart says it all; We’re at The Danger Point®

Price action appears to be struggling at this level.

If it can’t break higher and/or, posts a new daily low, it may be confirming a false breakout (Wyckoff, ‘Up-Thrust’).

That would open up possible testing of gaps (lower), potentially the Trading Range lows, as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As one would surmise, a short position was opened on Friday via Leveraged Inverse Fund SOXS.

Entry @ SOXS 8.59, Hard Stop @ 8.22, Soft Stop (discretionary) @ 8.30 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade is labeled: SOXS-23-10

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Sleeper’ Trade

December 1, 2023 By in Natural Gas, Positions, UNG, UNG-23-07, UNG-23-08

All Quiet, In Nat-Gas

We’re likely in the ‘Desperation’ phase of the Nat-Gas market.

Longs have literally been beaten to a place where there appears to be no more downside.

Today’s opening posted a new daily low of only 0.01-pt, before reversing, now trading higher (as of 1:17 p.m., EST).

Nat-Gas UNG, Hourly

One more new low, then reversal.

An hour-long upside bar shows ‘Sign of Demand’ and then a shallow retrace.

Positioning

Yesterday’s trade UNG-23-07, was exited in today’s pre-market session at the stop low of UNG 5.44 (not advice, not a recommendation).

After the upside reversal, the trade was re-opened.

The new position is labeled UNG-23-08 with a Hard Stop at today’s low of UNG 5.43 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279