Category Archives: Prechter

How Nvidia Drops, -90%

November 8, 2025 By in 1899, Artificial Intelligence, Elliott Wave, NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors 1 Comment

Terminating Wedge

It could be a slow grind, a series of ‘air-pockets’, or of course, not at all.

Using time-tested classical analysis, along with a dash of Elliott Wave, shows us we just had a terminating wedge ‘throw-over‘.

The video in the attached link, is brief and concise.

Throw-overs are (typically) major reversal indicators (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of yesterday, Friday, that’s where we are.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close

As seen with Nvidia, literally anything can happen. It could somehow recover, go sideways, or collapse.

If price action gets to the lower wedge, then breaks down, the ‘measured move’ for such a break, is -80%, to -90%, lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Crash in The Past

The crash of 1899, shows us that just because we got past October without fanfare, a crash can happen at any time.

A prior update, written three-years ago, describes that crash, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners & Elliott Wave

October 30, 2025 By in Elliott Wave, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Prechter, Retail Investor, ZeroHedge 5 Comments

Works Best Under Stress

Elliott Wave and Fibonacci are joined at the hip.

They work best when markets are emotional or under stress.

Historic moves like that of gold and silver, are such times (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ve already seen Fibonacci count(s) operating in the financial sector here and here.

So, let’s look at the miners and see what’s happening.

Senior Miners GDX, Daily Close

Five waves down; the direction of main trend has changed from up, to down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Recall, as long as the wave structure stays ‘in-effect’, the target area for the counter-trend retrace is:

‘The previous 4th-wave of lesser degree’, link here (click on ‘Corrective Waves’ and scroll to ‘Depth of Corrective Waves’).

That area is indicated by the magenta oval.

While the potential corrective wave grinds higher, ‘retail’ moves in to buy the dip, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Did The SOXX (and A.I.) Just Top?

October 22, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-17 4 Comments

While Everyone’s Watching The Metals

Yesterday, the metals and miners imploded.

While all the focus was on them, back at the ranch, the SOXX reached another top.

Last time we looked, the index had an apparent Fibonacci count that has since been negated.

Robert Prechter said it himself decades ago, ‘price action form is first, then time’.

The SOXX then went on to post a new all-time high.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note yesterday’s bar posted a new daily low after the all-time high.

As the SOXX, oscillated in a narrow range, it became apparent we may be at a significant inflection; three separate shorts were opened, combined into one position as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Pre-market action (7:55 a.m., EST), shows the SOXX trading at 288.09, below yesterday’s low of 289.22.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Robinhood … Pause & Reverse

October 4, 2025 By in Elliott Wave, HOOD, Prechter

Will The ‘Pattern’ Repeat?

Decades ago, Robert Prechter Jr., first discussed the market ‘Rule of Alternation’, link here.

It’s a ‘rule’, not a ‘law’; meaning, there’s a potential for the alternation, not a guarantee.

The chart of Robinhood (HOOD) shows this alternation in effect with each contact of the trendline.

Robinhood HOOD, Weekly

We’ve just had the largest Force Index ‘thrust’ since the ill-fated IPO.

At that IPO, within the first two weeks of trading, HOOD reached a peak. It then went on to collapse -92%.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta’s at The Top

August 23, 2025 By in Airlines, DAL, DAL-25-03, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXX Tags: , , , , 4 Comments

Apex, Terminating Wedge

Was the Fed speech a turning point?

Remember, markets typically move in the opposite direction first after the Fed, then resume their main trend.

On Friday, markets were generally higher on interest rate hopes. It’s called ‘hope’, as the Fed’s not actually done anything.

Let’s word that more accurately. The bond market has not (yet) told the Fed to lower rates. When it does (if it does), they will follow and present their case as if they are leading the market.

Decades ago, Robert Prechter Jr., in a research paper, proved this point. More recently, Ed Dowd repeats the fact, link here (time stamp: 37:48).

Markets were higher, including the SOXX, covered here, and in this update, airline sector Delta (DAL).

Delta Airlines, DAL, Daily

If there’s any one chart showing why this site primarily works the short side, this is it.

The last major move was an impulse downward, taking less than three-months.

The corrective move against the trend, has so far been nearly five months in choppy overlapping action.

DAL, finished on Friday at the Fibonacci 78.6%, retrace level (not shown). Unless the market decides otherwise, we’re in a terminating wedge.

Currently short DAL, as DAL-25-03, with stop just above Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Weekend Wait

Now, the worrying starts … we can almost write the mainstream media script for the next few days.

Why will the Fed need to lower rates? Is unemployment going to continue higher? What about all the mass layoffs? How will the consumer be affected … and on and on.

As a reminder, ‘alternate’ (real) unemployment numbers are here. We’re already at 25%, Depression era levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Reversal or Supply?

June 14, 2025 By in CVNA, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Prechter, Wyckoff

The Top, or Not

The past two trading days have Carvana down hard, on supply.

Is the trend still up?

What about the Fibonacci time (Day 89) correlation?

Prechter said it best, when commenting that ‘time’ follows ‘form’; meaning, the form is the most important and time, secondary.

So, at this juncture, time correlation is set aside, and we look at form.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The past (price action) is affecting the present.

Note how the resistance level from way back in late 2021, mapped directly to the present.

Based on that resistance, current action can be labeled a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Test or Not

‘Normal’ market behavior is to come back up for a test of resistance. It can happen, but it’s not required.

Recall, there’s a Fed meeting and interest rate announcement, this Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla’s Plug, Pulled

June 10, 2025 By in Prechter, TSLA, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

The Jolt, Is Gone

Last week, saw the largest ever, downward thrust energy for Tesla.

Price, whacked over -14%, in one day.

Then, ‘retail’ comes in to buy the dip (emphasis added):

Retail Investors Find A New And Extremely Dangerous Way To Chase TSLA, link here.

Pay no attention to the fact, on the fundamental side, EV sales are falling off a cliff, across the board:

US Electric Vehicle Adoption Plummets, link here.

Goldman Slashes Tesla Delivery Estimates On Weak Monthly Trends, link here.

All of which feeds into the (EV) supporting side of manufacturing:

Chinese-Owned Firm Halts Construction On Battery Plant In America’s EV Heartland, link here.

Then, on the environmental side, yet another EV fire:

New Footage Shows Abandoned Cargo Ship Laden With Chinese Cars Burning In Pacific, link here.

On the political side, it’s hard to gauge:

Musk Hit Bessent ‘Like A Rugby Player’ In White House Fight, Bannon Claims, link here.

‘Very Disrespectful’: Trump ‘Assumes’ Musk Relationship Is Over, link here.

The reason the politics are important, is because of the subsidies, link here.

On the price action side, we have the following:

Tesla TSLA, Daily

Pre-market trading (as of 8:56 a.m., EST) is around 315.15, slightly below the 50% retrace level shown.

Unfortunately (for them), the ‘retail’ investor, is telling us where the probabilities lay (not advice, not a recommendation).

Retail Woes

Before we feel sorry for ‘retail’, we’ve all been there at one point. Robert Prechter Jr., said it best when asked, ‘What advice, do you have for the average investor?’

His response was timeless: ‘Stop being the average investor’

What’s Next?

We’ve just had the largest downward force in the history of TSLA, a rebound fueled by apparent desperation, price action at or near the 50% retrace (from the 5/29, highs); the overall probabilities have become clear.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Peak Gold?

May 7, 2025 By in Elliott Wave, GLD, Prechter, ZeroHedge

Are We There, Yet?

It’s been nothing but hysteria, for gold.

The following is just a partial list from the past few days:

Gold Soars To Another New High, What’s The Message? Link here. Website link here.

Gold Soars $145 in 48 hours as China Takes Charge, link here

What Is Gold Trying to Tell Us? Link here.

Bullion, Bonds, & Black Gold Bid, But Stocks Skid As Bessent Bats Down Beijing Deal Bets. Link here.

Short Dollar, Long Gold; But Goldman’s Hatzius Hedges Between Hard Data Catch-Down & Positive China Mood Swings. Link here.

Gold: Like a Cork in Water. Link here.

Whales And Minnows Swimming To Gold. Link Here. Website link here.

On, it goes.

Gold GLD, Weekly: Then & Now

Shown below are two charts. The first is back from 2011, at the last major top.

The next chart is now.

Back in 2011, the massive Force Index, was posted before the high; a Fibonacci five-weeks, before.

Looking at the current chart, we have another massive Force Index, with the same value: 1.8B.

If the market follows the example of the past, we’re in that ‘fifth week’, now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Breakdown … Part 2

April 20, 2025 By in Bonds, David Weis, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, Interest Rates, Prechter, TLT, Wyckoff

Largest Downside Thrust … Ever

In the past few weeks, it seems like the markets have been whacked with a lot of, ‘the largest, ever’.

Trading in bonds, specifically TLT, is no exception.

While the media and pundits alike, deflect with ‘who’s doing the selling’ (hint: it’s not important), we’re going to look at the harder question of ‘what does it mean?’

Kick-Off, or Capitulation

Borrowing from research and writings of Wyckoff, Weis, and Prechter, when we get such a huge thrust downward (chart below), it’s typically one of two events:

A massive kick-off to much lower prices or a capitulation that washes-out the weak hands.

A bond upside reversal (rates lower) is a common sign of nearing or active economic downturn (not advice, not a recommendation).

In this interview with Greg Hunter, Ed Dowd covers the topic … the expectation for the reversal. However, that interview, was before the massive thrust lower.

Long Bond Proxy, TLT, Weekly

For years, it’s been one failed upside (reversal) after another.

Is this time, different?

The right side (magenta arrows) shows unprecedented thrust and volume.

So far, there has been a weak recovery to 38.2%, retrace of the recent down-move.

If that retrace level holds, with bonds continuing lower (rates higher), it does not bode well for the ‘capitulation’ narrative.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Then, Alcoa Is ‘Compressed’

March 9, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, AA, Basic Materials, Biotech, CVNA, GDX, GDXJ, Gold Miners, IYM, NEM, Prechter, RGLD, South Sea Bubble, SPBIO, XBI

Another One

Yesterday, biotech had moving average compression; today, it’s Alcoa.

In this case, we’ll present the monthly chart, showing the long-term picture.

As we’ll see, moving average compression is rare, especially when using the longer time-frames.

In the case of Alcoa (AA), you have to go all the way back to 1978, to find a similar event.

The Big Bubble

Referring to Prechter’s analysis link here, he states that we’re [potentially], in the largest asset bubble since the South Sea, over 300-years ago.

Let’s keep that in mind. Events are happening on such a massive scale; the typical observer may not be aware of the significance and/or the rarity.

Alcoa AA, Monthly

The zoom areas are side-by-side to show the similarity.

Expanding the chart and including the wedge notation, also shows price action at the lower boundary.

It should be noted, AA, is part of the ‘Basic Materials’ sector, with tracking ETF as IYM.

Included in the IYM components, is NEM, and RGLD; this sector is correlated with the miners, GDX, GDXJ.

Positioning

It’s the trader’s discretion as what to do at this point.

This site may or may not execute a direct short of Alcoa, just as it might do with Carvana (CVNA), and maybe others (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279