Category Archives: Spring-to-Up-Thrust

History Repeats (again)

February 10, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-04, FAZ, FAZ-25-01, Financial Sector, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, XLF

Another (repeating) Set-Up

This time, it’s the financial sector, XLF.

Top ten components for XLF, are listed here.

For today’s session (as of 12:27 p.m., EST), all but one of the ten are trading lower.

Financial, XLF, Daily

When looking at the chart, the set-up is obvious (not advice, not a recommendation).

Similar to yesterday’s update with ProLogis, XLF, made two attempts to push past resistance … that so far have failed.

Today’s action has ‘ease of movement’ to the downside.

The sidebar notes and open (short) position in XLF, as FAZ-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately:

The short in IYR, via DRV, was closed early in this session as PLD, made a (very slight) new daily high, indicating possible hesitation to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)..

It may still work out but the market that’s moving to the downside now, is XLF (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate, Reversing Now

February 6, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-04, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

If The High (for the day) Holds

For those monitoring this site on a daily basis, it’s at the point where you know (or almost know) what’s coming next.

Over several years, the set-ups have been clearly laid out.

One in particular, the basis for most of the trades, is this: link here.

With that in mind, we have real estate, IYR.

The last update hinted that a reversal may be ‘imminent’.

Well, it’s been several weeks. So far, nothing … until today.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

The set-up (Spring-to-Up-Thrust) is obvious (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘risk’ on a short position is the high for the day.

At the time the screen shot was taken, that ‘risk’ amounted to 0.64-pts.

It’s not a contest to ‘be right’. It’s an effort to ‘minimize risk’.

Positioned short via DRV, as DRV-25-04, stop at session low, 26.25 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As this post is being created (11:27 a.m., EST) IYR, is starting the retrace some of the early session downside.

It could be a quick day-trade exit if the stop is hit; we’ll see.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dow 30 … Near All-Time-Highs

February 5, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, DXD, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Then What?

Dow 30, is just shy of all-time highs.

As of the close today and using ETF DIA, as the proxy, we’re just 2.88-pts away from the mark.

Sounds like all is well; that is, until you look at the chart.

Dow Jones 30, DIA, Daily

Recall, markets tend to post repeating patterns, link here.

If there’s to be a (significant) reversal, the market itself is likely to give us clues.

Clues such as narrow ranges with high volume at resistance or just above.

On the sidelines until then.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. … From Bad to Worse

January 29, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

Adjusting The Trendline

Now, all-of-a-sudden, it’s a ‘thing’:

DeepSeek Breaks the AI Paradigm, link here.

YeaR OF THe SeeK…DeeP SeeK, link here.

The Competency Crash, link here.

DeepSeek AI App Demonstrates Pro-CCP Bias, Influence, link here.

The list is seemingly endless. Time for everybody to pile-on to the new narrative.

However, it does beg the question, Isn’t ‘The Thing‘ somewhere on I-10, in Arizona? 🙂

Getting back to reality, chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, we’re going to adjust the trendline (just a bit) from yesterday’s update.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

The objective is, maintain short, monitor the trend for potential break (and exit), wherever and whenever that may be (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s important to note, yesterday’s action was Spring-to-Up-Thrust; penetration of the prior day’s low and high.

Then, The Fed

Also note, we have the Fed coming up with more shenanigans in about two hours (as of 12:03 p.m., EST).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Dead at Resistance

January 17, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-25-01, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-01, Real Estate, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Repeating Set-Up

Real estate (IYR) has pushed higher above resistance and stopped dead; currently trading in a very narrow range.

It wouldn’t be all that interesting if price action was not in a repeating set-up:

Wyckoff Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Click on the side bar under the same name to see all posts related to this set-up.

Note: A set-up does not guarantee anything.

It’s just a market observed phenomenon that may result in a directional move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate IYR, Daily

There it is:

This is what’s called The Danger Point®

The risk of being wrong on a short position is at its least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning (updates)

Biotech XBI is spending a lot of time hovering around support and not progressing downward (no matter all the Fibonacci correlations).

With that, LABD-25-01 was closed at slightly above break even (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real estate IYR was entered short early in the session via leveraged inverse DRV, as trade DRV-25-01. Stop for the trade is currently the session low. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate, Hits Support

January 11, 2025 By in DRV, IYR, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, SRS, Wyckoff

What’s Next?

Since late November, last year, real estate IYR, has essentially gone straight down.

In that time, it’s dropped -13.5%.

As we’ll see, IYR, has hit and penetrated support.

So, what’s next?

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

Note the ‘S’ and ‘U’ labeling.

It’s our repeating pattern of ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’.

Also note, the initial bounce off support the prior two-weeks before last week’s (slight) penetration.

That ‘bounce’ did not go far, indicating continued weakness.

Even so, the last bar puts us in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position; some type of upward attempt would be ‘normal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that upward bounce does not happen or fails quickly, then it implies (continued) lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Watch for ‘Tight Action’

January 6, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, IWM, Russell 2000, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , 2 Comments

Coiled For A Move

How should the price action segment (at left) be marked up?

There are several Wyckoff analysis lessons and at least one empirical observation (made over several decades) in just the 16-bars of price action.

Empirical Observation

In a sense the prior update on Carvana (CVNA) illustrates the point.

When price action gets tight, something’s about to happen.

When that analysis was presented, little did we know, ‘Hindenburg‘ would come out and whack the stock.

So, let’s move on and mark up the chart … which just so happens to be the Russell 2000 ETF, IWM.

Russell 2000, IWM, Daily

The wide high-volume bar has been ‘tested’.

Price action penetrated lows posted December 20th; currently in spring condition that has (today) just posted into an up-thrust condition.

Repeating Pattern

From the late Wyckoff expert and mentor David Weis, spring-to-up-thrust is a repeating set-up, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Broadcom … Explodes !!!

December 13, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, AVGO, Basic Materials, Semiconductors, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

It Does Not Mean, What You Think It Means …

Like something straight out of The Princess Bride, this morning’s Broadcom (AVGO) explosion, probably doesn’t mean what the ‘investing’ public thinks it means (not advice, not a recommendation).

The link above, tells us AVGO, has launched higher on a ‘bold A.I. forecast’.

A Forecast !!! … what maybe could, or might happen in the future, if nothing bad happens along the way, … maybe.

Well, let’s go to the sector itself, the SOXX, and see what the market’s really telling us.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

The bubble trend break discussed here, remains intact.

Any number of notations can be made on this chart.

There’s a downtrend line from the October 15th high (not shown), with today, as the fourth hit on that line.

The low of November 27th, to today, could be classified as ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

The list goes on.

However, the main point, and to leverage on yesterday’s update, is this:

If the building blocks of economic activity (Basic Materials) are in a (potential) long-term reversal, how are any of these so-called A.I. ‘data centers’ and the associated infrastructure going to be built?

Asking for a friend. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Ends Week, Down

December 6, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

That’s Not All

Is a long-term, downside reversal in this sector, about to bubble to the surface?

With yesterday’s update, it’s easy to get lost in the hourly and daily maneuvers; see a likely (short-term) potential, while it just distracts from the bigger picture.

That ‘big picture’, is below.

Once again, we have a (potential) repeating set-up: Wyckoff ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Biotech XBI, Weekly Close

With this week’s volatile action but lower overall close (from last week), the ‘up-thrust test may be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX: Will Bulls Be Trapped?

December 2, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

One More Set-Up, Before Downside?

So, here we are.

Another repeating set-up.

Wyckoff: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

Let’s cut straight to the chase.

This set-up type was first covered years ago, at this link.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

Until the market proves otherwise, we’re still sub-dividing lower in a downtrend (not advice, not a recommendation).

At times, a trend-break will have multiple tests.

Recall, this update said we’re at Fibonacci Week 21.

Now, with the new daily and weekly high we’ve moved to Fibonacci Week 21 (+1).

A week plus or minus, for a 21-week count, is within acceptable error limits (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279