Category Archives: $SPSIBI

Biotech … Bear Flag Breakout

March 11, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Wyckoff 1 Comment

A Long Way Down

On February 3rd, also represented as; 2/3/23, it all changed.

That was the day the ‘toxic train‘ derailed in East Palestine, Ohio.

It was also the day biotech sector SPBIO, reversed to the downside.

The biotech reversal was identified to the day with the following quote:

” … today’s action is consistent with resolution of the five-months of congestion …”

Biotech had been in a congestion zone, a bear flag, for an incredible five-months. There’s no other pattern like on the chart of SPBIO (ticker, $SPSIBI, on StockCharts).

The analysis stated that if or when this sector breaks to the downside, the extended period of congestion suggests a long, sustained, move lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, here we are.

Now, the downside reversal is obvious. Then again, it’s likely we’re still very early in the move as we’ll see below.

Projection Methods

We’re going to use two projection methods:

First: The standard classical chart which identifies a potential Head & Shoulders pattern.

Second: The century old technique of ‘counting’ via Point & Figure (P&F).

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly (Classical)

Two charts are in classical format. The first shows the trading channel that spans 39-weeks from week 5/13/22, to week 2/3/23.

Note: Let’s not miss the symbolism (also, here and here): May 13th, 2022, was Friday. Then we have 2/3/23.

“For we wrestle not … “

The second chart is a compressed view.

Note the “3,000-level”, discussed in the P&F section.

Biotech SPBIO, Monthly

If the H&S pattern is in-effect and the neckline is broken, we have a measured move projection to the vicinity of SPBIO ~ 1,700 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, on to the P&F.

The ‘P&F’ chart has been used as a forecast tool for over one-hundred years.

The idea is to ‘count’ the number of congestion points and then project that congestion either higher or lower.

In our case of a breakdown, the projection is lower.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Daily P&F

The P&F chart comes up with roughly the same lower projection; approximately 1,700 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking at the P&F, we can see a steady amount of congestion with few breaks, that is, until we get to the left-most area.

There, we have a break of twelve boxes.

In classical P&F terms, that break of 12, indicates the SPBIO may ultimately reach the 1,700 level, but price action could be choppy after the initial count.

That initial count equates to around 3,000 for SPBIO, which just so happens to be an intermediate support level as shown on the Monthly chart.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Breakdown, Breakout

February 26, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Wyckoff

‘The Court Jester’

Court jesters reveal truths like no other.

How appropriate then, that someone who typically plays the ‘village idiot’ comes out with the truth.

Whether the ‘false narrative’ is finally crumbling or not, is not directly related to analyzing price action.

It does, however, provide the backdrop.

The ‘Big Reveal’

The last update in biotech had this to say (emphasis added):

“If this is the big reversal and biotech is the downside leader, unfortunately, that could mean a planned ‘reveal’ by the mainstream media.“

What wasn’t known, was just exactly how the truth would come out. Now, we know.

All of which, brings us to the topic at hand: Biotech SPBIO.

It turns out, SPBIO, is trading most consistently, on a three-day pattern.

Biotech SPBIO, 3-Day

In Wyckoff terms, the market itself defines what timeframes and what support/resistance levels are important.

Next up, we’re going to invert the chart to mimic the price action observed on the leveraged inverse fund LABD.

Biotech SPBIO, 3-Day, Inverted

And now, the characteristics of this sector the market itself, has revealed.

At this juncture, SPBIO, trades in a sequence of 3-Days after which, if there’s a directional move, continues on for nine consecutive bars.

After nine-bars, price action typically enters a correction for an undetermined amount of time.

After the correction’s compete the market has (in the past) continued on a directional move for another nine-bars.

Then & Now

We’re currently in a directional move that’s five ‘3-Day Bars’ in thus far.

If the market adheres to its prior behavior(s), we have at least four more ‘three-days’ to go (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note, the current reversal was identified to the day, with this update:

“However, today’s action is consistent with resolution of the five-months of congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).”

The fact the congestion period for SPBIO has taken so long to (apparently) resolve itself, has produced the potential for price action to go farther, last longer than anyone would normally expect.

That move if it happens, connects well with the introduction at the top of this post; a large part of the public has been informed in no uncertain terms, it was all a lie.

The needle, and the damage done.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Short Covering, Into The Close ?

February 21, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, INTC, KMX, LABD, MRNA, SPBIO

Watch For The Weakest

With today’s heavy downward action, as we head into the close, any number of scenarios could play out.

Work has already been done on INTC, KMX, MRNA, Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, and others.

With such a decisive push lower, there could be some kind of short covering late in the session.

For example, as of this post 2:15 p.m. EST, KMX (detailed below) appears to be coming off the day’s lows.

CarMax Weakness

The daily chart has KMX, right a the bottom of a trading channel.

Price action may continue to rebound from this area heading into the close or not.

If there’s a rebound, naturally Put options will begin to decay in value … a desired outcome if one is looking to enter short (at the cheapest price possible).

The bottom of the channel line could be all there is for this week or we could be heading to much lower levels.

It’s up to the trader/speculator to decide (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Bobsled, Starts … Down

February 9, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, IYR, LABD, Positions, Real Estate, SPBIO 1 Comment

Slowly, At First

Of all the major indices for today’s (Wednesday) session, biotech’s SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, had one of, if not the largest gain @ +10.48%.

The last update identified two sectors to watch for short positioning: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO; Short positioning via leveraged inverse funds DRV, and LABD, respectively (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since that post, DRV is up + 1.74%, and LABD is up + 8.58%, both measured on a close basis.

The ‘Big Reveal’

Remember: When price action turns south, that’s when the bad news comes out.

If this is the big reversal and biotech is the downside leader, unfortunately, that could mean a planned ‘reveal’ by the mainstream media.

Anyone going to alternative sites such as BitChute, ZeroHedge, Rumble, know full well what’s happening.

Maybe we’ll have another distraction like the 100-th (at last estimate) food processing plant fire or even something totally retro, like a balloon flying across … oh, wait. 🙂

Biotech SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD

We’ll get straight to the point as prior updates have built a substantial case for a long term, significant reversal.

Recall, LABD is the leveraged inverse of SPBIO. The daily chart shows the current set-up.

This site does not provide investment advice.

With that said, one could infer from this prior post (at the bottom), a position in LABD had already been established and included a hard-stop.

That was indeed the case.

Next Steps

There’s no guarantee on how far or how long a directional move will go.

However, for SPBIO, one can observe since the February 2021, reversal from all-time highs, a sustained, directional move typically lasts 4 – 6 weeks.

The next update will show the best chart timeframe (multiple days) that resulted in capturing the majority of the directional moves since the February 2021-high.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biggest Bull Trap, in History ?

February 3, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IYR, LABD, Real Estate, SPBIO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 8 Comments

Slow Descent, At First … Then, Mass Sell-Off ?

The large number of VIX (volatility) Calls, tells us, not to expect an immediate sharp move lower.

Those Calls will likely need to be bled-off in value, before we get a significant downward spike … if there is one.

Market Summary, Watch List

Over the past week, there are two markets that are being monitored for short position entry: Real Estate and Biotech; IYR, and SPBIO, respectively.

After nearly five months of price action whipsaw and congestion, biotech appears to be in a nascent downside reversal. Real estate looks to have reversed today (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech has been the weakest (technically) of all the major indices (except miners, GDX and GDXJ).

We’re going to look at the daily chart of SPBIO, to see the opportunity and the risk.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

Since late September last year, there has been sideways-to-up, price action congestion.

Price action today, appears to have resolved into a nascent reversal.

We’re going to invert the chart to mimic the leveraged inverse fund LABD, showing the opportunity and the risk.

SPBIO, Daily Close (Inverted)

The prior two days of Fed induced bullish short-covering hysteria, have resulted in a decisive penetration of the support level, as shown.

By definition, this puts us in Wyckoff ‘Spring Position’; be on guard for a potential reversal.

Positioning

There have been many false starts to this sector’s reversal as evidenced by previous posts.

However, today’s action is consistent with resolution of the five-months of congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Every trading/speculator has their own style and this site does not give financial advice.

With that said, a (highly leveraged) short entry via LABD, would have a hard stop at today’s low.

At present (2:15 p.m., EST) and entry at LABD 12.91 would have a stop at 12.45, yielding a ‘risk’ of 0.46-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Et Tu, Biotech ?

February 2, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Biotech SPBIO Joins The Ranks In ‘Danger’

The clock is ticking for biotech in so many ways. Now, one more event.

Shown below is an inverted chart of biotech sector SPBIO.

While all the major indices have posted a bear market rally above their 200-Week moving average (except the miners), the SPBIO, has remained firmly below those levels.

Now, today, we have a decisive penetration of resistance as shown on the daily below.

The chart has been inverted to mimic the 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD.

So, ‘resistance’ now becomes ‘support’ on the inverted chart.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily (Inverted)

We’ve penetrated ‘support’. Therefore, we’re in Wyckoff ‘Spring Position’, ready for reversal.

Even as this post is being created (2:25 p.m., EST), LABD is coming off its lows; currently trading at LABD: 12.61

A push back above support (approx. LABD 14.00 area), would indicate the spring reversal, is underway (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Breakout or Breakdown

January 13, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Usual Suspects, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

The Usual Suspects

During the past three months, biotech index SPBIO, has been oscillating, coiling like a spring; preparing for a dramatic move.

Then yesterday (Thursday), there’s an upside launch.

We now have price action instability; either the bulls or the bears are in control.

At this point, we don’t know who has the upper hand.

However, based on the list of recent news items below, it does not look good for the bulls.

Biotech’s Frankenstein

Within the past few days, we have this:

Deadline Passes For Pfizer To Submit Results Of Post-Vaccination Heart Inflammation Study To US Regulators

FDA Deviated From Normal Process In Pfizer Vaccine Approval, Documents Show

Former Employees Sue ESPN After Being Fired For COVID Vaccine Refusal

Lead Author Of Research On Pfizer And Moderna Trials Warns COVID Vaccinations Must Be Stopped

Pentagon Drops COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate For Troops

Let’s see if the market’s ready to hand it to this sector. What’s the price action telling us.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

The weekly chart shows the potetial breakout.

However, since we’re looking at this from a ‘going short’ perspective (not advice, not a recommendation), the chart following this one is inverted.

When we invert the chart, it takes on a whole different look.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly (Inverted)

If price action’s spent over three months getting where support has been penetrated only to have it fail into a reversal, the ensuing move has massive potential.

In Wyckoff terms, it’s cause and effect.

The ’cause’ has been three months of congestion. The ‘effect’ is a potential long duration, or wide volatility move.

Before The Open

It’s twenty minutes before the open and 3X leveraged inverse fund LABD, is trading higher by about +3.5%.

This is normal behavior whether we have a reversal or not.

One last check of ZeroHedge, before releasing this post turns up this:

Senator Questions CDC On Why It Claimed No ‘Unexpected Safety Signals’ For COVID Vaccines

The ‘monster’ continues to grow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Claus & Effect, The Next Wave

December 24, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Catherine Austin Fitts, CVNA, NFLX, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, TGT, The Speck, Useful Idiots, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Unprecedented … Again

Nefarious forces operate in distraction and darkness.

“And this is the condemnation, that light is come into the world, and men loved darkness rather than light, because their deeds were evil.”

The year 2021, was the year everyone (except children) showed their true colors; they made their decision, knowingly or not, for darkness or light.

This year, 2022, is where the effects (or ‘side effects’) of that decision began to take hold.

Now, as 2023 approaches, we’re likely to move into the realm of unprecedented chaos and collapse.

As if on cue, under the cloak of this week’s holiday distraction, we have what’s possibly the next wave.

This could be the reason as presented in the last update, why biotech appears to be in the early stages of disconnecting from the overall market.

That separation may continue or not; price action is always the final arbiter.

The ‘Woke’ Go Broke

The useful idiots that comprise the ‘woke’ business crowd may be in for the biggest surprise in the coming year.

If there is one overriding theme to keep in mind for 2023, this could be it.

Separate enclaves are now forming of those who have not, will not, and are not going to go along with the ever more unbelievable narratives.

Here is a link to just one of those enclaves.

As a digression; in Texas, we’re just now coming out of yet another record-breaking cold spell.

That’s two, never before seen record breaking low temp events within the past three years!

How does that fit with the global warming narrative?

Anyone awake knows full well what’s going on … and it’s not global warming.

Who’s On First: NFLX or TGT?

Now that vending machine Carvana (CVNA), is out of the way, who’s next?

Partly as a result of economic decline and partly from the decision to take consumer spending elsewhere, Netflix and Target now appear ready to continue their implosion.

More on their technical chart conditions in the next update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Disconnects & The Claus

December 23, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IWM, LABD, Positions, Russell 2000, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, TZA, TZA-22-02, Vernon Coleman, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Naughty or Nice ?

Biotech price action’s disconnecting from the rest of the market.

Around the last Fed meeting, biotech separated from the major indices, heading the opposite direction, i.e., sideways to higher.

We’ll see that as we get into the snapshots of the hourly charts (below), but first several clues on why biotech (so far) isn’t going along.

The Next Plan Rolls Out

First up is this, just out on ZeroHedge.

It appears the next push is on … and the target is the kids. Another wave of ‘protection’ is certain to boost profits.

Note: Those commenting on ZH have been ‘awake’ from the start; an invaluable resource.

Next up is this, just out on BrandNewTube; another clear thinker that helps ‘tie it all together’.

Is this the explanation for biotech’s current behavior?

Strictly speaking and from a Wyckoff perspective, we won’t know the real reason for a move until it’s nearing the end.

What we can see, is that character of price action has changed (again).

With that, we’ll look at the 3X, leveraged inverse funds of two indices, Russell 2000 (TZA) and SPBIO (LABD).

TZA & LABD, Hourly

The disconnect has been a recent observation.

We’ll drill right down to the hourly and put the charts one on top of the other.

We can see that while inverse TZA, is now back up to the pre-squeeze high, inverse LABD, is far below that level.

That’s not to say things can’t change quickly.

For now, however, there may be something else going on that’s keeping the sector buoyant and suppressing the LABD, inverse fund.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Kick-Off … and, Biotech

December 22, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Catherine Austin Fitts, Greg Hunter, IWM, LABD, LABD-22-14, Positions, Russell 2000, Stew Peters, TZA, TZA-22-02

Biotech, And The Next ‘Event’

Now, it all makes sense.

The solstice was yesterday.

Hard reversal in the market, today.

Then, there’s biotech; stubbornly refusing to break down.

First, Some Housekeeping

Before we go any further, from a housekeeping standpoint, all biotech short positions have been closed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Each apparent downside breakout attempt for the past three months, has been thwarted. There is something else going on.

Possible reasons for biotech’s resilience can be found here, and here and here.

Hint: There’s another planned ‘event’, on the way.

Now, back to the markets.

All major indices are sharply lower but for this update, we’ll focus on the Small Caps (Russell).

Russell 2000 IWM, Daily

Instead of starting with the big picture and longer timeframes, we’ll get straight into why today’s action may be significant.

Yesterday, price action attempted to ‘spring’ off the support boundary. Today, that spring has apparently failed.

Failed moves bring out the other side in force; in this case, the bears as it’s obvious the opposing side, the bulls, are exhausted.

It’s getting late in the session (2:50 p.m., EST) and the expectation is for a lower close.

If this really is the kick-off to the downside, then we’ll expect some kind of follow through at the next session.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279