Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As interest rates rachet higher, the squeeze is being put on operations that are rate dependent; real estate and auto loans to name just two (not advice, not a recommendation).
Tomorrow’s price action in CarMax, is likely to confirm the trend (shown below) or negate.
Note: We could also have a trading channel.
CarMax KMX, Daily
If KMX, is in the channel, we’re at the far-right end of the ‘supply side’.
It’s important to note, price action is also (just) below well-established support at the 73.50-area.
From a technical standpoint, that puts KMX, in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.
The expectation is for the spring set-up to fail (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
For silver bulls, it must feel like the old Rod Stewart song, from the early 70’s, ‘In a Broken Dream’;
‘Right now, is where you are … in a broken dream’
Especially so, for those allowing themselves to be subjected to non-stop propaganda about a ‘hyperinflation breakout’ or that silver’s going to ‘close the gap’ with gold.
So, it’s been nearly six months … where is it?
Meanwhile, back at the ranch during those same six-months, the press and YouTube grifters et al., were ignored.
Analysis was fact based; what’s the market saying is the most likely thing to happen?
The last post, link here, said to watch out for a failed breakout (Wyckoff Up-Thrust).
Silver SLV, Weekly
SLV price action has posted a new weekly low; both MACD lines, and histogram, show bearish divergence.
Of course, anything can happen. Silver could move higher.
However, the chart says, at this point, probability for (significantly) higher action is low (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
From a Wyckoff and David Weis analysis perspective, wide high-volume, price bars tend to be tested.
What does that tell us (to anticipate) with Micron’s huge gap-up with volume?
When we go to the chart, we see more … a lot more.
Frist off, let’s not forget, Micron’s Number Nine, in market cap within the SOXX, tracking ETF.
Its price action behavior (significantly) affects the index.
Micron Technology MU, Daily
We’ve got a (possible) Head & Shoulders. with an Up-Thrust, precipitated by good news (here and here).
It’s been 70 (trading) Days since Nvidia hit all-time highs; a high forecasted, then confirmed here and here:
Back then, was this:
“With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).”
It was significant. Nvidia has not been there since.
Implications
The implication with the (still holding) Nvidia top, is the A.I. bubble has burst.
Possibly the largest asset bubble in world history.
What we’re seeing with Micron, is potentially the last gasps of short covering, with an attempt to mount a rally in an overall deflating market (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Wyckoff (tape reading) analysis identified the potential reversal in XBI.
In the past two days of trading, biotech XBI, is decisively lower (not advice, not a recommendation).
However, there’s more to this story.
As we’ll see below, Fibonacci is at work as well.
Biotech XBI, Daily Close
From closing high on 2/27/24, to closing high on 9/19/24, was a Fibonacci 144 days (minus one).
Ladies and Gentlemen, it doesn’t get much better 🙂
The black lines show resistance penetration, up-thrust and reversal.
Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb
The trading methods of the three market masters above, can be summarized as:
Strategy, Tactics and Focus.
Livermore’s method of ‘what’s going to happen in a (potential) big way’, pointed to biotech.
Wyckoff’s analysis was used to identify (to the day), the potential for a significant reversal.
Loeb, who is less known, was the former Vice Chairman of E.F. Hutton, disparaged ‘diversification’ as the ‘averaging of errors’; meaning, if you don’t know what you’re doing (in the markets), you ‘diversify.’
We can see all three at work in the selection to go short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
Fixing Errors
For those watching, you got to see up close and personal a trading error on shorting the SOXX; specifically, an -11.6%, hit, link here.
As of this post, four trading days later, that loss has been fully recovered and then some.
This is how should be done.
Clear the mind, look for (don’t force) another opportunity, get to back to business.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It was just four days ago, the mainstream (in this report) was telling us, be on the lookout for a biotech breakout.
That was then … here we are now.
Price action in XBI, attempted to break higher at the Fed announcement.
That move appeared to fail by the end of Wednesday’s session … then came Thursday’s launch higher.
However, that move may have failed as well.
Biotech XBI, Hourly
At this point, we’ve posted a Wyckoff Up-Trust (reversal).
If this is a significant reversal, we’re still in the very early stages; at The Danger Point®
Positioning
As can be seen in the sidebar, a short position was opened (yesterday), LABD-24-18.
That position has been increased in size during this session (not advice, not a recommendation).
The SOXX (short) Exit.
Yesterday, SOXS-24-16, was exited with an -11.6%, hit; so, everyone can see the effects of breaking one’s discipline (not respecting the position stop).
Don’t force the trade … sounds so simple.
Getting back to work, the XBI false breakout was recognized early and the trade opened.
Today, so far, we have follow-through, confirming the reversal.
Bonds Continue Lower
Bonds, TLT, are currently posting an outside-down (reversal) on the weekly timeframe.
The last time there was an outside-down on the weekly, was over two-years ago; week of August 5th, 2022.
After that, bonds declined a whopping 32% before (slightly) recovering.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 