Category Archives: Wyckoff

UAL & Secret ‘Plans’

January 23, 2025 By in AAL, Airlines, DAL, Daniela Cambone, Ed Dowd, LUV, Positions, UAL, UAL-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Was It ‘Manipulation?’

Looking at United Airlines (UAL), with the precise set-up, four-year wedge, measured move, the top, timed exactly at an earnings release, you have to ask yourself …

Was it all part of a (secret) plan?

Wyckoff Writes on Manipulation

Way back in 1910, Wyckoff wrote the following concerning manipulation (emphasis added, quote used with permission).

“Manipulators are giant traders, wearing seven-leagued boots. The trained ear can detect the steady ‘clump clump’ as they progress, and the footprints are recognized in the fluctuations and quantities of stock appearing on the tape.”

United Airlines UAL, Weekly

When looking at the chart, it all makes sense … it just took over four years to play out.

As the last update said, ‘what now?’

All three major (largest cap) airlines are currently (flat to) lower; DAL, UAL, LUV (11:02 a.m., EST).

American Airlines (AAL), lower as well; it’s down a whopping -10%, just today

What does that mean?

Here’s an interview with Ed Dowd, just posted.

All of the damage inflicted over the years, is not going to be wiped-out with the stroke of a pen (to borrow a comment).

With that, one of the hardest industries to make a profit even in good times, are the airlines. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Treasury ‘Rout’ At End?

January 19, 2025 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TLT, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

What Does The ‘Market’ Say?

According to this link, the downside rout in U.S. Treasuries is coming to an end.

Real or fake? You make the call.

Let’s go to the bond market and see what it says.

Long Bonds, TLT, Daily

When looking at the chart, we see a potential upside breakout (blip) from the wedge.

From an experience standpoint, extremely narrow wedge patterns posting near or at the apex before breakout, rarely if ever, produce a lasting move (not advice, not a recommendation).

We could get more of the ‘blip’ higher. However, a ‘blip’ is not a directional move. 🙂

Jawboning The Market

Anyone dictating what the market will or won’t do or what it should do (in the opinion of your website host) is misguided, or inexperienced.

The market itself decides what it’s going to do.

As Wyckoff said a hundred years ago (1902, to be exact), the market is moving based on its ‘own forces’ that are not connected to valuations.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate, Odds in Your Favor

January 18, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-01, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Wyckoff

Contact Points

The last update showed the possible (downside) reversal set-up for real estate sector, IYR.

This update shows the largest cap equity in that sector (source, TC2000), ProLogis, PLD, and its current position.

ProLogis, PLD, Weekly

We’ve had essentially sideways action for over two years; trading between (approx.) 90 – 130.

In the past three months, price action has established what looks to be a downtrend and possibly a trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the relatively heavy (upside) volume from last week, the green bar.

In Wyckoff terms, that volume is potential ‘effort vs. reward’, or exhaustion if PLD, continues lower from here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Dead at Resistance

January 17, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-25-01, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-01, Real Estate, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Repeating Set-Up

Real estate (IYR) has pushed higher above resistance and stopped dead; currently trading in a very narrow range.

It wouldn’t be all that interesting if price action was not in a repeating set-up:

Wyckoff Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Click on the side bar under the same name to see all posts related to this set-up.

Note: A set-up does not guarantee anything.

It’s just a market observed phenomenon that may result in a directional move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate IYR, Daily

There it is:

This is what’s called The Danger Point®

The risk of being wrong on a short position is at its least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning (updates)

Biotech XBI is spending a lot of time hovering around support and not progressing downward (no matter all the Fibonacci correlations).

With that, LABD-25-01 was closed at slightly above break even (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real estate IYR was entered short early in the session via leveraged inverse DRV, as trade DRV-25-01. Stop for the trade is currently the session low. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Economic ‘Implosion’

January 15, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Great Depression 2.0, LABD, LABD-25-01, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Collapsing On Several Fronts

‘Retail’, selling silver, link here.

Jewelry whacked, link here.

Loan Shark, link here.

You know it’s bad when booze takes a hit, link here and here.

Producer prices launch higher, link here.

Lumber prices collapse, again, link here.

Travel restrictions, link here.

Then, there are ‘valuations’, link here.

Also then, there’s this, link here.

Lastly, short squeezes and liquidity traps … bear market behavior, link here.

Speaking of ‘short squeeze’, we had biotech do just that in the pre-market (and regular) session.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If it really is/was a short squeeze, once shorts are covered, the expectation is for price to continue lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Included in the chart, is a bit of insight you’re not likely to find anywhere else.

Note the distance of each retrace after a leg down. Less each time and Fibonacci multiples.

As stated yesterday, XBI posted outside down. That means price action penetrated the lows of the prior session and closed lower.

As wild as it may seem, penetrating the lows and closing lower, put XBI in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That’s what we saw with today’s action.

As this post is being created (11:45 a.m., EST), XBI action continues to erode to the downside currently trading at the 87.60 – area.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Leader … Biotech

January 14, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IBB, IWM, LABD-25-01, Russell 2000, SPBIO, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Confirming, Right-Side Channel

It’s a recurring theme with biotech.

Over and again, this sector (IBB, XBI) is not participating in tandem with the other major indices.

Today’s pre-market mayhem higher over supposed slower outlays of possible trade tariffs to happen some-time, some-day, caused the major indices to launch upward. 🙂

Well, everybody seemed to be blasting higher except one sector, biotech.

Wyckoff Directed Action

No matter what the ‘narrative’ may be, Wyckoff analysis directs us to look at what the market is actually doing, then interpret the action.

Early after the open, trade TZA-25-01, was exited, +8.9% gain, short position opened in biotech via LABD, Trade: LABD-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today posted outside down, taking out both the high and low of the prior session.

Note the trading channel and width, Fibonacci 13-Days.

Also note the two ‘breakaway gaps’. The second one on January 10th, much wider than November 12th, last year.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate, Hits Support

January 11, 2025 By in DRV, IYR, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, SRS, Wyckoff

What’s Next?

Since late November, last year, real estate IYR, has essentially gone straight down.

In that time, it’s dropped -13.5%.

As we’ll see, IYR, has hit and penetrated support.

So, what’s next?

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

Note the ‘S’ and ‘U’ labeling.

It’s our repeating pattern of ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’.

Also note, the initial bounce off support the prior two-weeks before last week’s (slight) penetration.

That ‘bounce’ did not go far, indicating continued weakness.

Even so, the last bar puts us in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position; some type of upward attempt would be ‘normal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that upward bounce does not happen or fails quickly, then it implies (continued) lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Russell 2000, Breakdown

January 10, 2025 By in David Weis, IWM, Russell 2000, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Short(s) Hanging On … Tight

Everyone seems to think, January 20th (if we ever get there), is going to bring a new era of ‘prosperity’.

We even have a hot-off-the-press, jobs number, magically appear to bolster the case (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price Action … Truth

The crux of Wyckoff analysis, proposed over a century ago, is that we’re to completely ignore the financial press.

The focus is to be on the action itself.

Doing that, identified a potential opportunity; Russell 2000 (IWM), presented as a possible short candidate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since that update (as of 11:13 a.m., EST), IWM is down near -4%, leveraged inverse fund TZA, up about +13%.

Possibly more important as we’ll see below, are the trendlines and channel(s).

Russell 2000 ETF, IWM, Daily

The grey (dashed) trendline has verified contact points on January 6th, 7th, 8th and today, the 10th.

The ‘reverse trendline’ technique is being used to identify the potential right side.

Reverse trendline, discussed in the David Weis training video, link here.

What’s Next?

The short answer is, it’s not known.

However, the probability is, for action to continue in the direction already established … that is, down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Watch for ‘Tight Action’

January 6, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, IWM, Russell 2000, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , 2 Comments

Coiled For A Move

How should the price action segment (at left) be marked up?

There are several Wyckoff analysis lessons and at least one empirical observation (made over several decades) in just the 16-bars of price action.

Empirical Observation

In a sense the prior update on Carvana (CVNA) illustrates the point.

When price action gets tight, something’s about to happen.

When that analysis was presented, little did we know, ‘Hindenburg‘ would come out and whack the stock.

So, let’s move on and mark up the chart … which just so happens to be the Russell 2000 ETF, IWM.

Russell 2000, IWM, Daily

The wide high-volume bar has been ‘tested’.

Price action penetrated lows posted December 20th; currently in spring condition that has (today) just posted into an up-thrust condition.

Repeating Pattern

From the late Wyckoff expert and mentor David Weis, spring-to-up-thrust is a repeating set-up, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dow … Down

January 2, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, DXD, DXD-25-01, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: , ,

Adjusting The Short(s)

For the Dow 30, the ‘January Effect’, lasted less than an hour.

From then on, it’s been decisively down.

The biotech sector on the other hand, was and is still (as of 1:30 p.m., EST) higher for the day.

Trade LABD-24-21, was exited with +14.52%, profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Dow 30 (DIA)

Price action is posting outside-down for the day with just over two-hours before the close.

The important part, Dow (DIA) upside was limited when compared to biotech.

Wyckoff said a century ago, we must adhere to what the price action is telling us; no matter our ‘opinion’, the action is always right.

With that said, short trade DXD-25-01, was initiated (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279