Category Archives: Wyckoff

The Ball Corp., Breakdown

October 14, 2023 By in BALL, Great Depression 2.0, Greater Depression, Wyckoff

What Does It Mean?

So, what does the chart breakdown mean?

‘Buckle your seatbelt Dorothy, ’cause Kansas is going bye-bye’

Right along with the airlines, packaging and containers (like BALL), are down hard from their all-time highs, posted long ago.

As of Friday’s close, BALL is down a stiff – 57%, from its 2020 highs and we could be just getting started.

Do Not Pass ‘Go’

It’s the opinion of this author, we never had or are going to have, a ‘recession’.

We went straight past that, right into ‘depression.’

The monthly chart below, has a massive Head & Shoulders pattern that’s been years in the making.

Ball Corp. (BALL), Monthly

From a textbook standpoint, this is near perfection.

An obvious Left Shoulder, Head, and Right Shoulder.

The Neckline is sloping downward, indicating weakness.

The retrace from the October 2022 lows (not shown), has managed only Fibonacci 23.6%, providing confirmation of significant weakness.

The magenta arrow shows it’s been three months in-a-row (the ‘breakdown’) of lower action.

Penetration & Support

BALL, has penetrated prior lows posted during October 2022, and we’re currently at the neckline.

That means Wyckoff ‘spring’ position (penetrating the lows) and there’s a potential for some type of upward action; not much, but the possibility is there.

Positioning

BALL may present the opportunity for a direct short (borrowing, selling the actual stock), with good daily volume and dividend of only 1.8% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: A direct short puts the trader on the hook for paying the dividend and any other upward short covering ‘surprises’ … risky indeed.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When Costco Sells Gold

October 1, 2023 By in China, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, serpentza, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Mother of All Contrary Indicators

This has to be it, right?

Selling gold in a supermarket; an expensive commodity, peddled to the least informed and least capitalized segment of the public.

Once that market’s saturated, who’s left?

Going Down Memory Lane

It’s been nearly three years since this post.

From a long-term strategy standpoint, this site has been consistent; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next shoe has yet to drop on how or what’s going to be used to extract (or confiscate) precious metals from the (stacking) proletariat.

With craziness by the day, anything can happen.

Gold: Turning Points & Technical

So far, it’s been three-for-three (here, here and here) identifying recent significant technical conditions and turning points for gold, GLD.

At this juncture, the dollar collapse, and the silver/gold bull launch are just not happening. It’s not there … something else is going on (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re in the middle of a massive sovereign bankruptcy (Time Stamp 7:10) that’s never happened before.

What’s going on behind the scenes is not visible to us.

However, from a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, those (hidden) actions and decisions show up on the chart(s).

Contrary Indicator

Remember Baghdad Bob?

Constantly giving press conferences discussing the strength of the military campaign when the exact opposite was true.

It may be so with gold as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

The local supermarket has decided, after a 22-year long bull market, it’s ‘safe’ for profit.

The hapless public is now standing at the gold kiosk; with face-mask firmly secured, arm bandaged from the latest booster, EV FOB in hand (or pocket), hypnotized into yet another mania.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Good News, Bad News … Biotech

September 19, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, 1907, Biotech, LABD, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, The List, Wyckoff 4 Comments

When Price Action Heads South

One of the first things a professional (mentor) will teach aspiring traders, is:

‘Big money potential is on the downside’.

A famous example of this, was during the Panic of 1907,

Jesse Livermore raised capital by hawking his car for $5,000 (according to Wyckoff), then shorted the market.

Near the bottom on (or about) October 24th, 1907, he covered; netting over $1 million in profits.

That Was Then … Is That Now?

Well, conditions change, but human behavior does not.

Back in the day, it was newspapers, telephone, telegraph and ‘rumors’; today, we have Cramer 🙂

You’ll have to judge for yourself if the posts on this site are providing worthwhile insight.

Let’s move on to Biotech, SPBIO.

Since I am short this sector via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation), we’re going to look at that vehicle.

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

After the entry on 9/14, at 16.99, price action has not looked back.

Note, the entry had a very tight stop as covered here.

The ‘risk’ is determined as the distance from entry to stop; in the case above, 16.99 – 16.66 = 0.33-pts.

For example, a ‘risk’ of $1,000 let’s say, equates to a position size just over 3,000 shares LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trending

The chart shows LABD, is currently trending higher at an aggressive rate.

There’s no guarantee this will continue to hold.

However, at the same time, there’s been no ‘news generating’ breakout, either.

So, at this point, it’s all under the radar.

Bad News Comes Out

When price action heads south, bad news comes out.

On a daily basis now, with articles like this and this.

Positioning

The initial position has already been discussed.

Other minor ones have been opened but the more important part, is Stop placement.

The initial Stop has been moved from LABD 16.66 to yesterday’s low of LABD 17.59 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Event Horizon’

September 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, CBDC, Daniela Cambone, Edward Dutton, Excess Deaths, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Set In Motion

Serious students of the markets discover quickly enough, price action has nothing to do with forecasts or fundamentals.

Once that mental hurdle is overcome, the market landscape takes on a whole new meaning.

Moving Parts, A-Plenty

At present, there’re a lot of moving parts but a few things are known: the on-going population collapse, the soon-to-be market and currency collapse (or severe de-basement), the possible ‘balkanization‘ of the U.S., just for starters.

Those wheels have already been set in motion.

Within that construct, are the market navigations (trading actions) presented on this site.

Biotech Has Spoken

At least for now, the bears are in control (not advice, not a recommendation).

The minor ‘spring’ set-up, materialized during Thursday’s session, just as this update said was likely.

It’s what happened next, that’s important.

On Friday, the set-up failed; showing the higher probability is for more downside.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

Price action is posting lower.

The potential trading channel has been re-drawn with the grey lines; indicating the possibility for more aggressive downside action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As can be inferred with these updates, I’ve already positioned short this sector via leveraged inverse fund LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop is Thursday’s high (SPBIO, 6,135.81) which corresponds to LABD 16.66 (interesting, that).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The AI ‘Hot Potato’

September 14, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, LABD, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, The Maverick of Wall Street, Wyckoff 2 Comments

My Forecast Is Hotter Than Yours!

Those on the bear side of the AI insanity, know in their gut, this sector’s going to implode in spectacular fashion (not advice, not a recommendation).

The question is, as The Maverick puts it, ‘when’?

What’s also not known, is how the public is going to react when the punch bowl is taken away and we have the day of reckoning.

With that in mind, the immediate downside in the SOXX, has failed to materialize … just yet.

Therefore, all short positions via SOXS, have been closed; profit was about +10%

Behind The Scenes … Biotech

Biotech, SPBIO, has been an on-again, off-again opportunity.

It’s not known how the next ‘planned outbreak’ is going to affect the sector, but it looks like at this point, the current response is to edge lower.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

The big picture shows lower highs as we head toward well-established support zones.

From a trading and shorting perspective, the leveraged inverse fund for this sector is LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

Moving closer in, the daily action has penetrated prior lows, technically putting the index in Wyckoff spring position.

Price action will likely attempt a move higher, happening now during this session.

If that move fails, then we have our answer; the bulls would be exhausted (for now).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX (Upside) Breakout … Fails

September 11, 2023 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Now, It Gets Interesting

Not only has the upside at this morning’s open failed (as of 11:20 a.m., EST), we also have an ‘outside down’ (key reversal) that so far has exceeded the lows of the prior two sessions and the prior week’s low.

When A Move Fails

Failed moves get the attention of the street.

Whomever is on the other side of the trade, in this case the bulls, are potentially exhausted.

It’s still very early in the session and anything can happen.

However, the most likely outcome at this point is continued downside that may accelerate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

I have kept the trendline shown in the prior update intact.

What we may be looking at here, is an attempted trend breakout that has at this point, failed.

I have switched to an OHLC bar chart (instead of Candle) as the detail of the failed breakout is more clear.

The zoom area shows how price action quickly ‘gets itself back into line’ and rejoins the downtrend.

We’re now in a dangerous spot for both sides as price action is currently in Wyckoff spring position, having penetrated prior lows.

Probabilities point to more downside; let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Set-Ups That Repeat

September 5, 2023 By in David Weis, Positions, SOXS, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Two Years Later

The on-going short position via SOXS has been maintained (with a new stop) and here’s why.

Just over two years ago was this post.

There are certain behaviors that markets tend to repeat; what’s called a Wyckoff ‘spring to up thrust’, is one of those.

Looking at the 30-minute chart of SOXX, that’s what we have today, … just barely.

What happened this session in the SOXX may be the last move upward before a sustained reversal.

Semiconductor SOXX, 30-minute

This morning, the SOXX penetrates prior 30-minute lows and sets-up a minor ‘spring’.

Price action then moves higher to just barely exceed the prior session highs for the ‘up-thrust’.

Then we have a retreat in the SOXX, effectively confirming that what just happened was a Wyckoff spring to up-thrust.

This is where sustainable reversals tend to occur.

Positioning

The previous Hard Stop of SOXS 8.97, is adjusted by two ticks to 8.95 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, the expectation is for a SOXX downside (SOXS higher) reversal from this point.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

From ‘Hype’ to ‘Opportunity’

August 31, 2023 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

What A Difference A Day Makes

Update: 9:50 a.m., EST

Exited SOXS @ Stop 9.05, then re-entered after the open at 9.19.

Hard Stop @ Session Low 8.97 (not advice, not a recommendation)

SOXX, price action pushed above well-established resistance and so far, has failed to hold.

After hours has the SOXX, trading down -2.45-pts. (as of 7:30 p.m., EST) which gives us a hint there may be a new daily low at the next session.

If so, it’s a Wyckoff Up-Thrust, a reversal, with significant potential for downside.

Positioning

Already short this sector via SOXS with hard stop at the session low of SOXS 9.05 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Setting-Up for Tomorrow

August 22, 2023 By in NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Anything Can Happen

Yes … anything can happen but what’s the most likely thing?

At this juncture, based on price action so far (as of 11:38 a.m., EST), the SOXX looks like it will penetrate the blue line resistance tomorrow or the day after (not advice, not a recommendation).

That penetration should it happen, will set-up a potential reversal (Wyckoff up-thrust) condition.

Exactly how that action will take place is unknown. Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to release earnings tomorrow after the close.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

The chart shows a potential target area.

The target is right in the vicinity of a 50%, retrace from the reversal high (7/31/23), to the low, set last Friday the 18th.

Positioning

Based on the behavior of price action during the last session, it was clear for the short term, higher action in SOXX and lower action in SOXS was probable

With that, even though the stop of SOXS 9.93 was not hit (as it was today), a discretionary exit was made at SOXS 10.51, which yielded about +8.4% on the trade.

Next Steps

On the sidelines for now (not advice, not a recommendation) and watching closely.

It seems the mania has increased all the more even though we’re past the top on the SOXX.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘It’s Just a Flesh Wound’

August 11, 2023 By in NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Van Tharp, Wyckoff 2 Comments

So, Now It Starts

It’s like the knight in Monty Python.

We have the usual suspects being rolled out to let us know, there’s nothing to worry about.

Links here, here and here.

This one, is especially ripe.

Watch until the end (if you can stomach it) where the host asks in exasperation, after a 200% gain in NVDA, ‘is there really more upside?’

At this point (as of 11:05 a.m., EST), the answer is no.

Forces Of Thier Own

All the way back in 1902, Wyckoff discovered after studying the tape (the Ticker):

‘Forces were at work, moving prices, that had no connection to real values.’

That, ladies and gentlemen, is all you need to know.

Fundamentals are just a well-orchestrated ruse to keep the public thinking, if their pencil’s sharper than the next guy’s (think FactSet), they’ll have the market figured out.

Wyckoff ‘Nails It’

So, he we are.

Using Wyckoff analysis (reading the tape) the probability for the current reversal, was identified within a day.

The subsequent short position (via SOXS) was stopped out yesterday, almost lost completely, but for the re-entry @ SOXS 9.70 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post, we’re a full point higher at 10.70, an 11%, gain in just hours … not bad.

With that said, we’ll shift gears a bit and go straight to the leveraged inverse fund SOXS, but use a 3-Day chart.

Semiconductors Leveraged Inverse SOXS, 3-Day

The 3-Day, is being used as the market itself has defined (for now) it shows price action characteristics more clearly.

Distance between the entry and the stop is 0.28-pts.

As a position size example:

Risking $1,000 on the trade would result in a size of 3,571-shares of SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

For more information on sizing, see Van Tharp, link here.

Note: There’s a big price difference (over 450%) between the Wycoff text and the Van Tharp text … just sayin’.

Next Steps

At this point, there’s not much to do on this trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Keep in mind we’re at an historic bubble extreme, the likes of which has not been seen since Sir Issac Newton lost his fortune over 300 years ago.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279