Category Archives: Wyckoff

Nat-Gas Upside Pressure

October 5, 2025 By in Corn, Natural Gas, Positions, UNG, UNG-25-01, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Rally Into Winter?

The technical position of Nat-Gas (UNG) suggests conditions are in place for upside demand into the winter months (not advice, not a recommendation).

Some type of (seasonal) nat-gas rally is typical but not guaranteed.

Adding to that, the anomaly in June of 2023, since prices had come down so much, naturally, they just had to go higher.

Speculators positioned accordingly, creating a massive imbalance, link here.

Obviously, the increase in price never happened.

Natural Gas ETF, UNG, Weekly Close

Now, over two-years later, there may be a bullish set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

This set-up looks very similar to CORN.

The latest CORN update included the potential for a retrace into a Wyckoff spring; last report, linked here.

Depending on price action, we’ll discuss that, this week.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Banking Sector Breakdown

October 2, 2025 By in Financial Sector, Positions, Thoughtful Money, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-07

Top & Trend

Financial sector XLF, has topped, reversed, and now appears to have formed a nascent down-trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Top ten components are listed here.

Of those ten, nine are directly related to banking, credit or the insane (dubbed ‘pornographic‘) valuations of the market.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

There’s an open short position, XLF-25-17, with stop located at yesterday’s high.

After today’s session, that stop will be moved lower to the high of today, currently at XLF 53.48 (not advice not a recommendation).

It’s important to note, although the trend appears to be lower, XLF has penetrated established support.

That puts it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. Some (marginal) upside is to be expected.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Dow Set-Up

September 29, 2025 By in DIA, DIA-25-05, Dow 30, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

While Everyone’s Focused on A.I.

Who looks at the Dow Industrials anymore?

Bueller? … Bueller? … Bueller?

We’ll be brief.

The Dow 30’s last peak, an all-time-high, was Fibonacci 5-Days ago, September 23rd.

Dow 30 ETF, DIA, Daily

We’re at Day 5, as mentioned, also at a 68% retrace and currently trading lower.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bubble’ & The ‘Beast’

September 26, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, BIS, IBB, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 3 Comments

Downside For Both?

The ‘bubble’ is obvious, Artificial Intelligence.

The ‘beast’, not so much, but revealed below.

The last update, presented a case for the SOXX top, a proxy for A.I.

Note: If the SOXX, has made its final high, it’s still very early in the reversal:

Wyckoff said a century ago, ‘It’s as if the weight of a feather can move the market in either direction’.

That’s where we are now.

For biotech (IBB, XBI), different forces are at work.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

The 38.2%, retrace from 9/19 high, to 9/25 low, is in the vicinity of 140.90 (magenta dashed line).

Fridays are typically biased to the upside.

There’s a possibility IBB, may test (upward) throughout the session, heading to (at or near) 38%, by the end of the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX at The Top

September 25, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bert Dohmen, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Did The Bubble (just) Pop?

The SOXX, closed lower yesterday and is down again, in today’s pre-market.

If we’re in a sustainable reversal, volume provided the clue.

As with Carvana, SOXX volume in the last session increased substantially from the day prior.

Lower close, higher volume, increasing pressure.

In pre-market, SOXX continues to drop as we speak. Is this the ‘gap-down’ Bert Dohmen talked about? Link here.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily Close

We’re in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ condition. Pre-market action says it’s a draw-down, best case.

Worst case (for the bulls) is that we’re at the top … and it’s a long way down.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Falls in Hole

September 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-24-14, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, Up-Thrust, WMT, WMT-25-07, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Trading Below Support

Carvana spent three days hovering above support.

Yesterday, trading started above support, then, ended below.

Adding to that, price action was down on double volume from the prior session.

Volume study is part of Wyckoff analysis. It typically does not get attention as it’s boring, generating no ‘clicks’.

The increase in volume suggested pressure’s building to the downside.

Based on that, a (small) short was opened yesterday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Short position is being maintained; stop to be moved at the end of this session to the day’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other Markets

From the ‘notes’ discussion on yesterday’s post, the WMT position was stopped out (at essentially break-even) early this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action looks like a secondary test of the reversal.

However, from a preference standpoint, the focus is on CVNA … and the SOXX.

More on that later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Cadence Design … Reversal Ready

September 23, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, CDE, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 5 Comments

Repeating Pattern

During the last multi-year, market melt-down from ’07 – ’09, Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) crashed over -90%, in a relatively ‘well-behaved’ collapse.

‘Well-behaved’; straight down, sideways, then straight down again.

Looking at the current price action on a closing basis, we see the ominous (potential) pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Cadence Design Systems, CDNS, Daily Close

Other Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-ups are noted.

However, this time around, we may be in up-thrust (reversal) condition.

The next earnings release is late October; there’s time to assess action (if/when short) before any Kabuki theater (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Walmart, Tests Reversal

September 22, 2025 By in David Weis, Up-Thrust, WMT, Wyckoff

Watch The Volume

The last update on Walmart (WMT) had this:

Will we get an upside test, even if only briefly?

Watching price action early this session, it looks like that test is happening now (not advice, not a recommendation).

From a Wyckoff (and David Weis) perspective, what we’re looking for if WMT, keeps rising or holds steady, is volume to contract on the day.

Contracting volume indicates a test of the up-thrust (reversal) and helps to add probability to the downside.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Margin Debt … $1-Trillion

September 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-11, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XLF, ZeroHedge

When it Implodes

Is the bell ringing?

Is this it?

In the pre-market, SPY, DIA, XLF, QQQs, all-time highs.

Meanwhile, beneath the surface, it’s getting a bit ‘uncomfortable’.

One Trillion in margin debt as reported here and here.

The Ones To Watch

While all eyes are focused on the leaders (above), at least three markets are not participating:

Real Estate, IYR, Russell IWM, biotech, IBB, and XBI.

From a Wyckoff perspective, for short candidates, these are the ones to watch (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech, XBI

As stated in the prior update, XBI may have formed a triple top within and ‘up-thrust’, link here.

The obvious areas to watch for today’s session, are yesterday’s high and low.

A new high puts the up-thrust into question; new low, adds (a small) confirmation to reversal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Old Timer’s ‘Truth’

September 9, 2025 By in 1929, Bert Dohman, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, HOOD, HOOD-25-07, Kitco, Kitco News, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, ShadowStats, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The Real Story

If there’s any one interview that details what’s really going on, it’s this, link here.

The 48-mintue Kitco session with Bert Dohmen, is much needed straight talk.

It’s all there:

Official data is fake. Markets will (likely) ‘trap’ bulls with massive gap-down. It’s 1929 (again). Crypto is an illusion. Silver/Gold will correct (temporarily) along with the markets. We’re surrounded by bought off media. The population (masses) don’t think or can’t think.

Adding to that are ideas and sources discussed for years on this site, like ShadowStats having ‘real’ data on unemployment and inflation.

The list goes on.

With all that said, let’s look at one of the sectors (retail brokers), that could be hit hard during a surprise downturn.

Robinhood HOOD, Daily

It’s important to note, price action late Friday, began to pull away from the lows … rising into the close.

Just after that close, the announcement, HOOD made it to the S&P.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something. That ‘something’ shows up on the tape’

Well, there it is.

Was yesterday (the start of) a blow-off?

Froce Index (thrust) was the largest since the IPO, trading on August 4th, of 2021.

Price action is currently (as of 11:58 a.m., EST) retreating off the highs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279