Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Based on price action itself, the miners are refusing to retrace higher.
The last update suggested a retrace to the usual location(s), at least the 38.2% level, the vicinity of ‘wave iv’.
So far, not even that is happening.
Senior Miners, GDX, Daily
Pre-market trading in GDX (as of 8:24 a.m., EST) is lower.
At this point, from the chart above, we can see the index struggling to move higher.
Elliott Wave or not (from previous post), Wyckoff method says the market itself defines the next likely move.
It’s possible we’re not at the bottom of the current down leg; that we’ll post lower before making a serious retrace attempt (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Seen as far back as the late 1980s, on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, but I digress.
So, here we are, waiting for the next shoe to drop.
‘Isolated’
That label replaces the ’07 – ’08, meltdown term of, ‘contained‘.
Using the aforementioned theory, do we really think that UnitedHealth, is an isolated incident?
Instead of presenting an opinion, let’s go to the market itself and see what it’s telling us.
Healthcare Sector XLV, Weekly Close
We’ve just had the largest upside pressure in the history of XLV, back as far as 1999.
After that, it not only stalls, but prints a Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) right along with a terminating wedge.
Note, after the record setting Force Index, further upside pressure has evaporated.
It’s as if the bulls abandoned the market, exhausted.
As Ed Dowd said in a recent interview, link here, these types of record-breaking moves are typically ending moves; not the beginning of a next leg up (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
What if there’s not enough money in the coffers, for a bank bail-out?
Last week’s chaos is still in the ‘next shoe-to-drop’, stage:
Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge 50% As Cracks Deepen Across U.S. Credit Markets, link here.
The Bizarre Bankruptcy At The Heart Of This Week’s Regional Bank Meltdown, link here.
“This Is Crazy”: Goldman Stunned By Regional Bank Meltdown; Its Clients Demand Answers To These 3 Questions, link here.
Wyckoff Had The Edge
The market itself told us ahead of time, something’s up.
The top in XLF, identified here. On the heels of that, literally hours before the Dow melt-down, this post.
Note: The Dow post even suggested potential action:
“From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.”
The Dow pushed higher in the first fifteen-minutes of trade and then collapsed.
Focus Amidst The Chaos
The analysis links above are a reminder; as the chaos increases, focus is to remain on price action itself.
Let the market tell us its (own) next probable direction.
All of which brings us to the chart.
Financial Sector XLF, Daily
The zoom area shows at least three contact points on a possible trendline (Wed, Thu, Fri).
Short position XLF-25-08, entered early on Thursday, and pyramided late on Friday (not advice, not a recommendation).
Expectations, Next Week
Obviously, the expectation is for continued downside. We’ll probably know late on Sunday, if that’s likely to happen.
The XLF is labeled as EXTO (extended trading hours) eligible. If there’s even a hint of (sustained) upside pressure, the exit may come as early as Sunday night (not advice, not a recommendation)
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The ‘risk’ on a short position in the Dow (DIA), is yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
It’s very early in the pre-market (7:48 a.m., EST), DIA is trading slightly higher (at 464.34), but anything can happen between now and the open.
Massive Margin Call
The Trillion Dollar margin call has to come from somewhere; maybe yesterday’s action in the metals and miners is going to force everyone’s hand.
Silver spiked, outside-down, on heavy volume.
With that said, on to the chart.
Dow 30 DIA, Daily
From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.
The chart also shows an apparent volume climax, a typical ‘last gasp’ market action.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The last update, presented a case for the SOXX top, a proxy for A.I.
Note: If the SOXX, has made its final high, it’s still very early in the reversal:
Wyckoff said a century ago, ‘It’s as if the weight of a feather can move the market in either direction’.
That’s where we are now.
For biotech (IBB, XBI), different forces are at work.
Biotech IBB, Weekly
The 38.2%, retrace from 9/19 high, to 9/25 low, is in the vicinity of 140.90 (magenta dashed line).
Fridays are typically biased to the upside.
There’s a possibility IBB, may test (upward) throughout the session, heading to (at or near) 38%, by the end of the day (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 