Mind Games

August 12, 2025 By in 1929, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Uneducated Economist 4 Comments

On A Colossal Scale

‘The are just making it all up’, link here (time stamp: 10:12).

‘Doing it on purpose’ (time stamp 11:50).

The statements were referring to the financial ‘media’.

The ability of the media to manipulate the herd with such ease is shocking and disappointing at the same time.

One has to wonder, was it like this in 1929?

Moving on to the A.I. mania, we have yet another potential high in the SOXX … today or tomorrow (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Tomorrow, is Fibonacci Day 89, from the April 7th, lows.

Another set-up, with Fibonacci target.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … In The ‘Pattern’

August 11, 2025 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, GXZ25, Inflation, JDST, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Was That, The Top?

Inflation reports are released tomorrow, link here.

That release may be an inflection point for the miners.

This past Friday, GCZ25, posted an all-time high, then reversal; in the early session today, it’s continuing lower.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, what’s in the inflation reports is immaterial. The real question is, ‘what’s the market saying about itself?’

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Repeating pattern, Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Pre-market action (8:34 a.m., EST) shows a lower open.

If we open lower, the short entry objective, is to wait for action to move higher in an attempt to close the (potential) gap (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 10, 2025 By in BA, CVNA, CVNA-25-09, MMM, Positions

Carvana: Test, or Breakdown

Several equites appear to be at transition points.

Boeing was covered yesterday. Similar to Boeing, is Three M.

Both appear ready to post higher into resistance at the next session (not advice, not a recommendation)

Another potential transition is Carvana, CVNA.

The last (short) trade, CVNA-25-09, was closed on 8/7/25, with a +6.53%, profit.

At this point, shown below, we’re either going to attempt an upside test or … just go ahead and break to the downside.

The least likely probability is for extended sideways action.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Boeing ‘Wedge’

August 9, 2025 By in Airlines, BA 1 Comment

Something, About To Happen?

With an amazing technical move, Boeing’s earnings release (7/29), effectively closed the gap opened way back in January, of 2024.

Price action reversed from there.

BA, has since gone on to form a terminating wedge.

Boeing BA, Weekly

We have a wedge, ‘throw-over’, gap close , then reversal.

The past week can be considered an upward test of the ‘throw-over’, posting declining volume.

No (short) position yet … but close (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Another ‘Bear Flag’, in The SOXX

August 8, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-10

From Hourly, To Daily

The last update on the SOXX, proved to be correct but short-lived.

That post showed an hourly ‘bear flag’.

Now, we have the same pattern on the daily.

Not shown on the chart, today is Fibonacci Day 8, from the most recent closing high.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

As the side bar shows, a short is open: SOXX-25-10, with a tight stop in the vicinity of 243.84 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Duolingo … P/E 171, and Climbing

August 7, 2025 By in DUOL

How High Is Up?

Are Duolingo’s latest earnings, the last gasp, or just the beginning?

According to BigCharts, P/E for DUOL is 171, from TC2000, it’s around 142.

Either way, it’s big; DUOL, could be considered as a consumer discretionary stock.

Short interest is low, around 6%.

In the pre-market session, DUOL is trading at 438 (as of 8:44 a.m., EST).

That’s very near the 50% retrace level, from May 14th, high to August 1st, low, which just happened to be 330.32. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UBER & Earnings

August 6, 2025 By in Ed Dowd, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, UBER, Wyckoff

Downside Pressure

UBER’s earnings were stellar; why’s the stock heading lower?

From a Wyckoff analysis perspective, the question’s not relevant.

We pay no attention to financial news, or news of any kind.

The real question, ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’

UBER, Daily

The repeating pattern, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

On a longer, monthly timeframe (not shown), there’s a massive MACD bearish divergence; telling us, opportunity favors the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

To minimize risk as much as possible, we’re looking for price action to rise into the close, narrowing the distance between entry and stop.

The stop would be (if a trade is placed) at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Economic Conditions.

Another interview with Ed Dowd, has surfaced, link here.

As one of the comments noted, ‘this is the best synopsis of actual market conditions presented, to-date’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bear Flag’, in The SOXX

August 5, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-09 1 Comment

Is This (finally) It?

As a reminder, this update said we may be at the end of the short-covering rally from the April lows.

That’s proven to be correct (so far).

From the same update, we have the weekly Fibonacci correlation at 55 weeks between highs.

With that said, let’s look at the chart.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

We’re using the shorter timeframe as the flag is not that easily seen on the daily chart.

Currently positioned short as SOXX-25-09, with the stop at today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Implodes, Carvana, Next?

August 4, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-09, KMX, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Swan Dive, to The Street

Something’s very wrong between CarMax, and Carvana.

CarMax’s annual sales are effectively twice that of Carvana; 26.5bln, vs. 13.67bln; source here and here.

CarMax printed its all-time highs years ago, now down over -64% from those highs.

However, just last week, Carvana posted all-time highs.

Adding to that, with half the sales of CarMax, Carvana’s market cap, is effectively ten times larger, than CarMax (source TC2000).

How does that work?

Is Carvana about to join CarMax, to the downside?

Carvana CVNA, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

First, we have the set-up, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Next, the print and retreat from all-time highs (last Thursday).

Now, we have downside continuation with a potential trendline.

As this post is being created, CVNA, continues down; trading at 355.28 (as of 10:52 a.m., EST), down -3.41%

Maintaining short, as CVNA-25-09; stop to be moved lower to today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 3, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, DIA-25-01, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI

Rebound, or Rout

Yesterday’s update, said that biotech XBI, finished the day in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position; to (possibly) move higher into the target zone.

Today, we have this analysis, link here that indicates a similar scenario for the overall markets.

It’s possible there will be some upside bias this week (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re about an hour into the session; the S&P is trading flat along with the Dow,

If last week’s downside was going to continue aggressively, a much lower start would be expected.

So far, that’s not happening.

Short The Dow

A trade not discussed, is the short in the Dow, DIA-25-01.

Depending on price action in the coming week, that short may be increased.

If so, it’ll be discussed at that time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279