Attempted Breakout … SOXX

October 14, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX 2 Comments

Will It Hold?

The SOXX, just closed in breakout position while at the same time, doing it on weak energy.

The prior update noted the volume clue that was thought to be exhaustion.

There was a clue for sure, but it was actually preparation for a move higher.

The question now, is the breakout false?

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily (inverted)

Note: The chart is inverted (upside down) to show the perspective from the short side.

There’s decisive penetration of support (resistance non-inverted). However, the energy, Force Index of that penetration is quite weak.

We won’t know for sure until there’s more price action to show who’s ultimately in control, bulls or bears.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s ‘Measured Move’

October 13, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, SLV Tags: , , , ,

Bullish & Bearish

For the past six months, the overall strategic assessment of silver has been consistent; sideways to bearish.

Stategic, because there are always opportunities for bulls and bears if your timeframe is short enough.

Six months ago in May, the high for silver SLV, was 29.56. So far this month, the high is 30.01, a +1.52% difference.

Not exactly ‘sideways’ but as we’ll see below, it’s potentially bearish (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Weekly

The measured move, discussed back in May, link here.

Back then, at the link above was this:

“The coming week could see SLV, inch its way higher to the measured move or continue the testing (possibly, reversal) action it started last week.“

Well, it took SLV, nineteen-weeks to ‘inch its way higher’ to just tap the measured move target.

All of which brings us to the next chart.

If the wedge is in-effect and SLV breaks down, depending on location, SLV, target could be in the vicinity of 20 – 22 area (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When The SOXX, Talks

October 12, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX 2 Comments

Volume Clues

Everybody’s focused on price; nobody looks at volume.

It’s old and boring.

More accurately, interpreting (listening to) volume is subtle. When does one pay attention and when not?

In our latest example, you be the judge.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Look at the huge volume spike on Friday, when compared to volume two days prior (the last up move).

Note the reward for double volume; all that effort and yet, net distance upward (magenta dashed line), is minimal.

Remember, we’re (potentially) on the right side of a Head & Shoulders formation, shown here.

Positioning

Typical with these updates, you can see (in the sidebar) a short position was opened on Friday; SOXS-24-18.

Of course, expectation is for downside action at the next session (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re at ‘the edge of the lake’ as David Weis used to call it.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Downside Slows (for now)

October 11, 2024 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-24-05, IYR, TLT

Trading at Support Area

Bonds are at support and hesitating.

Conversely, the IYR downside action has also reduced.

Based on those two indications, the IYR short, DRV-24-05, has been exited for now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Profit on the trade was approximately +4.26%.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily

It’s been a beating for bonds in the past few weeks.

Let’s see if there is some type of upside recovery (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds Down (rates up) … Again

October 10, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT Tags: , , , ,

‘Investors’ Lose Confidence

We’re still in the pre-market (9:13 a.m., EST) but already, long bonds (TLT), are trading lower with rates higher.

The current bond reversal was first discussed in this post.

Part of what was said (then) is to watch how the press paints the picture; that is, to get your popcorn ready.

Cue The Press

So, the ‘press’ has decided that ‘investors’ are losing confidence in the Fed.

Instead of highlighting wrong-think about who is leading whom (hint, bonds are in charge, not the Fed), we’re going to ‘let the trade do the talking’ or the analysis, as it were.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

Back then (September 19th), wedge identified.

Moving on to now.

We’ll propose that investors are not losing confidence in the Fed.

No, we’re in a new paradigm, catching many off-guard; unsure as to what data to believe and how to position.

This site is using the method described in the About section. You’re watching in real time, how that method fares under the current chaotic market conditions.

As Buffett is attributed to saying.

‘When the tide goes out, that’s when you find out who’s been swimming naked’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax in The Lane

October 9, 2024 By in Interest Rates, KMX, Real Estate, Wyckoff

‘Stay in Your Lane’

As interest rates rachet higher, the squeeze is being put on operations that are rate dependent; real estate and auto loans to name just two (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow’s price action in CarMax, is likely to confirm the trend (shown below) or negate.

Note: We could also have a trading channel.

CarMax KMX, Daily

If KMX, is in the channel, we’re at the far-right end of the ‘supply side’.

It’s important to note, price action is also (just) below well-established support at the 73.50-area.

From a technical standpoint, that puts KMX, in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

The expectation is for the spring set-up to fail (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bad News for Silver Bulls

October 8, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, SLV, Wyckoff Tags:

It’s Like A ‘Broken Dream’

For silver bulls, it must feel like the old Rod Stewart song, from the early 70’s, ‘In a Broken Dream’;

‘Right now, is where you are … in a broken dream’

Especially so, for those allowing themselves to be subjected to non-stop propaganda about a ‘hyperinflation breakout’ or that silver’s going to ‘close the gap’ with gold.

So, it’s been nearly six months … where is it?

Meanwhile, back at the ranch during those same six-months, the press and YouTube grifters et al., were ignored.

Analysis was fact based; what’s the market saying is the most likely thing to happen?

The last post, link here, said to watch out for a failed breakout (Wyckoff Up-Thrust).

Silver SLV, Weekly

SLV price action has posted a new weekly low; both MACD lines, and histogram, show bearish divergence.

Of course, anything can happen. Silver could move higher.

However, the chart says, at this point, probability for (significantly) higher action is low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax … Edge of The Wedge

October 7, 2024 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, IYR, KMX, Real Estate, TLT

It’s A Long Way Down

Carmax is on the edge.

As we’ll see below, its poised to break lower out of a wedge that’s been forming over the past year (not advice, not a recommendation).

Auto loans along with real estate are tied to bond yields; bond proxy TLT, was down again today with rates going higher.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

Bonds TLT, are currently at support levels so an upside retrace (rates lower) is possible.

If that happens, the important part to watch is how KMX, responds (if it does at all).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds … The October Surprise

October 6, 2024 By in Bonds, Dollar, DRV, DRV-24-05, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Prechter, Real Estate, TLT, Usual Suspects, UUP, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , ,

Will The ‘Wedge’, Close The ‘Spead’

Bonds traded down hard last Friday.

With the reversal now obvious (since the Fed announcement, September 18th), we have the usual suspects putting out ‘content’ (here and here) letting you know what’s already happened.

In Prechter’s book, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, he states, being part of the herd, is hard-wired into the brain.

Therefore, it takes diligent, consistent effort, to go against the mindless (limbic brain) herd if you’re going to make an objective observation.

So, let’s do just that, taking an objective look at the potential effects of the bond reversal.

Bonds (TLT proxy) began its reversal, rates higher, the day before the last Fed announcement.

The IYR, reached its high that Wednesday, 9/18/24.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

It’s been nearly three years since the all-time high in December, of 2021. The wedge shown below has been just over a year in the making.

The reversal action of the past few weeks can be seen in the ‘Throw-Over’ area of the chart.

If the wedge has been identified correctly, price action has now entered back into that formation.

Positioning

This post highlighted a short position was on the horizon.

This post confirmed.

This post connected the dots with the bond market.

That same post presented a tentative stop above break even on DRV-24-05 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trend or Not

We may know as early as tomorrow’s session (Monday), if IYR has established and confirmed a downtrend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s Bearish Divergence (again)

October 5, 2024 By in Dollar, Dr. Elder, Gold & Silver, Livermore, serpentza, SLV, UUP Tags: , , , ,

Has Our Hyperinflation ‘Nutcase’ Escaped?

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here we are.

We’re about to find out if silver (SLV), is headed for a breakout, sideways congestion and/or, outright reversal.

In a world that seems to be allergic to the truth (as serpentza, put it), we’re going to do just that; look at the truth, the price action itself.

The last update, link here, said to watch for an SLV, breakout that could fail, confirming a bearish divergence.

From the intro line, here we are.

We have the breakout.

All that’s missing is continuation higher or reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, let’s go to the truth of the matter, the SLV chart.

Silver SLV, ETF, Daily

Years ago, Dr. Elder stated, when MACD histogram and MACD lines are parallel (bearish divergence), it’s a rare occurrence.

The coming week might be the deciding factor.

Before we leave this post, let’s throw in a bonus and consider the dollar ‘collapse’ narrative.

Dollar ‘Collapse’, Where?

Below is an updated chart of the dollar index.

Note the arrow to this link, posted nearly four years ago!

Dollar Index UUP, Weekly

It’s important to note, at the time the ‘Reversal Ready’ post was created, there was absolutely no-one (that was known) indicating the dollar index was headed significantly higher.

This is what’s meant by ‘Strategy’ in the About section.

Livermore was focused on what’s going (or likely) to happen in a big way.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279