Tag Archives: finance

Going Short … In Style

March 10, 2025 By in Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Great Depression 2.0, ZeroHedge Tags: , , 1 Comment

Knowing When, To Be In Fashion

Out in the mainstream, they tell us the smart money (maybe, even retail) is selling, or selling short, here, here, here, here and here

There’s also recession talk, here; couple that with utter confusion, here.

Then, if we do have a ‘recession’ (or depression) it’s time to blame somebody, right?

As Dr. Elder said years ago (paraphrasing):

‘When there is a change the market, there’s a lot of turbulence before action settles into a definable trend.’

Taking everything in aggregate above, that could be where we are now.

In Style

Some of the links above, are still attempting to make a bullish argument.

For them, it’s not quite time to have a bearish stance. It’s not yet fashionable.

For this site however, every trade (453 of them) for last year, 2024 (ex. UNG), was to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

By the time, the bear has fully clawed the market (if or when), it’s most likely too late for any low-risk positioning.

One market that may be acting as a defensive move, are the miners, GDX, GDXJ.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

GDXJ, is either slipping away to the downside or it’s preparing for another attempt at higher prices.

At this point (1:12 p.m., EST), the support/axis line has not been decisively penetrated to the downside, suggesting probabilities are for higher prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Before anyone gets overly bullish, let’s also keep in mind, the high print at the left of the chart in October of last year, is still below the print discussed in this post. over four years ago (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When The Analysis is ‘Wrong’

February 8, 2025 By in Dr. Elder, DRV, DRV-25-01, DRV-25-04, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Wyckoff Tags: ,

‘In Slow’ … ‘Out Fast’ (Dr. Elder)

The last update on ProLogis, PLD, proved to be (somewhat) incorrect.

There was no definitive assessment on direction, but from the sidebar, one could see an open short position in sector index IYR, as DRV-25-01.

That short was closed nearly immediately at the next session as PLD, ratcheted higher along with IYR.

Since we’re at ‘-04’, increment on DRV, there have been four attempts to position short with DRV-25-04, currently open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gain/loss (all positions) is near break-even, at -0.38%

All of which brings us to ProLogis … again.

ProLogis, PLD, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

The last earnings release for PLD, resulted in a wide bar on heavy volume.

Nearly instantly, and from a Wyckoff standpoint, we should know what that means … or what is probable:

The wide bar, volume, are likely to be ‘tested’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next update, we’ll discuss the Up-Thrust (reversal) condition for PLD.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

First, Real Estate … Now, Bonds

February 7, 2025 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-25-04, Interest Rates, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, TLT Tags: , , , 1 Comment

Rates, Back on The Rise

Yesterday, was the reversal set-up for real estate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, it’s bonds

The bond chart below shows TLT, in a near-perfect trading channel.

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

In addition to the channel, there’s a Fibonacci time correlation.

Or course, this could be the week (or next) where bonds break out to the upside.

Anything can happen.

For now, price action remains in the down-channel.

The next item shows we’re potentially at some kind of transition point.

Retail, ‘All-In’

Behind the scenes, reports like this, tell us the ‘retail investor’, i.e., the least informed and least disciplined participant is literally, ‘all-in’ the market.

What could go wrong?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Hanging by a Thread

February 2, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-04, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Below Support, and Slipping

Does one downside gap, beget another?

The gap-lower open Monday, January 27th, was only retraced by a Fibonacci 23.6%, the next day before continuing lower.

If that percentage holds, it’s a rare occurrence and represents extreme weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart for NVDA, shows we’ve had the largest down-thrust energy in history (NVDA began trading 1/22/99).

Now, it’s hanging below resistance (blue line).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Last Friday closed lower; after-hours, lower, still.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

As the ‘About‘ section says, techniques on this site are laid out by three masters and coached, mentored, by one of, if not the best in the industry (the late David Weis).

With that said, everyone has their own style.

Currently short the sector via SOXS, as SOXS-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners, Reversal Ready

February 1, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners Tags: , , , ,

Will The Breakout Hold?

As Ronald Reagan used to say:

‘Here we go again’.

The assessment of the mining sector has not changed in over four-years.

That is, it’s not a bull market (not advice, not a recommendation).

There are trading opportunities for sure but a sustained long-term bull market in the sector (GLD, is a different story), has not materialized.

So, here we are again.

Senior miners GDX, just broke above established resistance. Will it hold with GDX, moving higher?

Senior Miners, GDX, Daily

Except for the impulse launch higher in March and April of last year, upward movement has been choppy and overlapping.

This type of action is typically classified as ‘corrective’, moving against the main trend.

Since November, downside action has been ‘impulsive’, and upside action, ‘corrective’, shown as solid arrows, dashed arrows, respectively.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … New, All-Time-Highs ?

January 30, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg Tags: , , , ,

The ‘Measured Move’

According to this link, the wheels have already come off.

However, as we’ve seen time and again, ‘financials’ have nothing to do with prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s all about manipulation and what the manipulators are trying to achieve.

At this point, Carvana refuses to go lower. That’s a fact.

So, if it’s not going lower, just what is happening?

A better way to ask the question:

‘What’s it going to take to trap unsuspecting ‘investors’ and extract the largest amount of funds from them in the shortest possible time?

How about new all-time highs on an earnings release (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

The all-time-high for Carvana, is 376.83, posted during the week of August 13, 2021 (source TC2000).

Next earnings is on February 19, link here.

Let’s see what happens next

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Melt-Down … The Day After

January 28, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Loeb, NVDA, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX Tags: , , , ,

‘Real Opportunities Are Rare’ … Gerald M. Loeb

Now that one pillar of the A.I. mania has vaporized, ‘what’s next?’

To begin the search, let’s start with this headline from yesterday:

“No One Was Buying”: An Ominous Post-Mortem Of What Happened Today From Goldman’s Trading Desk, link here.

That may tell us all we need to know.

But of course, it can’t be that simple. We have to make it complicated with ‘experts’ piling on, pontificating about ‘earnings growth’, ‘multiples’ and the like.

However, did any of that play into identifying the SOXX reversal, almost to the day?

Short answer is, no.

So, why would it be a factor in determining the most likely (next) outcome?

With that, let’s take a look at the chart.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

It’s an aggressive viewpoint; that is, NVDA’s not going to fill the gap and is in the midst of a sustained down-move (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the A.I. bubble, potentially the largest bubble since the South Sea, imploded yesterday, the chart seems like a reasonable viewpoint (definitely not advice, not a recommendation).

Loeb & Focus

Few people talk about Gerald M. Loeb, late Vice Chairman for E.F. Hutton

He’s the one that said to ‘focus’ one’s efforts on the few and rare, real opportunities.

With that said, NVDA and the SOXX are moving now, while other market appears stagnant.

Therefore, the focus is on this sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s ‘Break’ Test Dummy

January 16, 2025 By in CVNA, Great Depression 2.0 Tags: , , , ,

Time & Targets

Will it be like the old Ted Nugent song?

‘Kamikaze from the hundredth floor. Swan dive to the street.’

The last update wasn’t quite sure if we’d finished testing the trend break.

Now, with this morning’s session, there are more clues we may be getting closer (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking back, this update had target(s) where price action could post before continuing the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

It was thought we’d get a rebound off the trendline. Instead, it looks like a test of the break.

No matter ‘how’ price action got to the target(s), it’s at the target. 🙂

Carvana CVNA, Daily

As of this post (11:26 a.m., EST), CVNA high for the day is 232.80, in the prior target range of ‘227 – 233’.

Today, is Fibonacci Day 34 (+1) from the all-time high posted on November 25th, last year.

If there’s going to be a reversal, price and ‘time’ requirements have been met (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adding to that, this update with Carvana (Hindenburg) ‘fundamentals’ in place.

Along with yesterday’s update, rate of economic decline increasing, it’s probable we’re nearing some type of inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Economic ‘Implosion’

January 15, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Great Depression 2.0, LABD, LABD-25-01, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Collapsing On Several Fronts

‘Retail’, selling silver, link here.

Jewelry whacked, link here.

Loan Shark, link here.

You know it’s bad when booze takes a hit, link here and here.

Producer prices launch higher, link here.

Lumber prices collapse, again, link here.

Travel restrictions, link here.

Then, there are ‘valuations’, link here.

Also then, there’s this, link here.

Lastly, short squeezes and liquidity traps … bear market behavior, link here.

Speaking of ‘short squeeze’, we had biotech do just that in the pre-market (and regular) session.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If it really is/was a short squeeze, once shorts are covered, the expectation is for price to continue lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Included in the chart, is a bit of insight you’re not likely to find anywhere else.

Note the distance of each retrace after a leg down. Less each time and Fibonacci multiples.

As stated yesterday, XBI posted outside down. That means price action penetrated the lows of the prior session and closed lower.

As wild as it may seem, penetrating the lows and closing lower, put XBI in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That’s what we saw with today’s action.

As this post is being created (11:45 a.m., EST), XBI action continues to erode to the downside currently trading at the 87.60 – area.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Taps The ‘Break’

January 13, 2025 By in CVNA Tags: , , , 1 Comment

Was That It?

Is Carvana just like Wile E. Coyote, where he heads off the cliff, hangs for a moment, then looks down?

When looking at the weekly chart, we see the trend break and then what looks like a test.

The question is, was that it?

Carvana, CVNA, Weekly

As shown above, the nuance that hints at continued lower prices, not a more protracted test, is today’s open; that is, it’s below, last week’s close (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

From a corporate standpoint, no positions (long or short) are planned for CVNA.

We’re just noting the price action, providing the analysis (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279