Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
In our example above, the commentor said their family survived in part, because they had “100kg of salt”.
That amount equates to about 220 lbs.
Converting 1oz gold for (roughly) 18-oz. salt, at today’s gold prices, is about $392,000 ‘worth’ of salt.
When they came out other side, the salt may have been gone, but they had the gold. 🙂
Now, moving on to the chart.
Gold (GLD), Weekly
Gold is at a critical juncture.
We’re either in a potential ‘throw-over’ on the wedge formation (with reversal) or about to pressure higher into all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).
We see a rising (terminating) wedge, along with a decline in volume (thrust).
We’re at The Danger Point®
Gold’s price action does not need much of a push to go either way.
Then, The Dollar
Recall, from the dollar update (link here), there’s a possibility for it to decline from current levels; potentially setting up a Wyckoff spring condition.
A dollar decline would naturally provide a likely correlation for gold rising into new all-time highs.
If either one happens, there’s probably going to be panic.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Before we even get started, let’s take a look at the last time there was this much dollar ‘collapse’ hysteria.
The update at this link, shows the analysis of what was likely for the dollar during the previous round of hysterics.
That was over two-years ago and in itself, highlights the ‘strategic’ nature of the analysis presented on this site.
The UUP (dollar index) chart is re-printed below and shows the location of the ‘reversal’ update.
Dollar UUP, Weekly
That was then; so, let’s move on to what could happen at this point in time.
The chart below shows three potential scenarios based on current price action and location.
No. 1
The dollar rallies from here; moving on to test the highs.
No. 2
The dollar continues lower, tests or penetrates the prior lows, then rallies in a Wyckoff spring to the highs and potentially higher.
No. 3
We really do get a collapse.
The dollar breaks the support area, comes back to test the underside and then heads lower.
Hysteria In … Hysteria Out
Of the above three scenarios, which one is going to create the most media hysteria?
A better way to ask the question, which scenario would be the most profitable for those entities that ‘control’ (manipulate) this market?
If the dollar is still in an uptrend and this is just a pull-back, then Scenario No. 2, would likely be the most profitable.
Played Like A Fiddle
Remember, the general public is being played like a fiddle.
The recent and on-going mass exodus from the small banks to the larger ones right into the potential CBDC trap, is a good case in point (not advice, not a recommendation).
So, it could be as well for the dollar in Scenario No. 2
If the dollar heads lower and manages to penetrate support, there’s likely to be media pandemonium.
That would go right along with YouTube grifters losing their minds … all the while, getting those important ‘clicks’.
If it happens, that would be a fantastic, potential set-up for a short-covering rally.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The biotech sector’s (upside) correction is complete.
If that’s correct, it’s likely to get very serious to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
A massive list of fundamentals, i.e., ‘side effects’, have been documented on this sector’s reprehensible behavior (saying it politely) over the past three years.
‘The List’
From here on out, we’ll call the linked information that follows, ‘The List’. So, we have The Biotech List, linked here, here, and here.
In the past few days we can add more items to the list, here, here and here.
When The Money Runs Out …
Now, it looks like the money (and ‘patient’) spigot is running dry as reported here.
So, let’s see how that’s working itself out for chief cook and bottle washer; biotech, SPBIO.
As usual, we’re looking at 3X, leveraged inverse fund LABD.
SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily
Sharp reversal to the upside.
We’re nearing the end of today’s session (2:55 p.m., EST) and price action has been relentless.
Looking at the weekly chart of LABD, we see the trendline being confirmed.
Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Weekly
A reasonable expectation for the next session(s) is some type of back testing of today’s action … although it’s not required.
Positioning
Yesterday’s downside LABD, action forced the complete exit of the main position that was (in-part) established during the downside thrust on February 2nd.
Overall profit gain on the series, was just over + 44%.
So, we had partial exit with +37%, main exit with +44%.
Later in the session yesterday, it became obvious the downside correction (from March 24th) may be nearing completion; the main position was re-established @ LABD 20.27 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Today’s action puts that entry well in the green.
If this really is the next leg lower (higher for LABD), the expectation is for significantly increased volatility.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Until price action proves otherwise, each increase in bond price (decrease in rates) is going to be viewed on this site, from a bearish perspective.
That’s not to say bond prices won’t go higher. Counter-trend moves can be trading opportunities.
However, with market blow-ups, internet and broker outages the norm (think, SVB), taking a position against the overall main trend, is not something you’ll typically find presented on this site (not advice, not a recommendation).
With that said, let’s look at where the long-bond proxy TLT, is at this juncture.
Long Bond TLT, Daily
The chart may be hard to read but it shows the entire move lower from the all-time high posted on March 9th, of 2020.
The magenta arrow and bar is the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace.
That’s where we’re focused on the chart below, an expanded version of the daily.
The potential set-up is obvious.
If price action breaks out of the (orange) wedge pattern into a measured move, it would retrace to the Fibonacci 23.6%, level, while at the same time, getting itself into Wyckoff Up-Thrust (reversal) position.
The up-thrust would be created if/when price action pushes above the known resistance area shown as the horizontal blue line.
The Danger Point®
If price action moves into the set-up area as shown, TLT would be at The Danger Point®
This is an area of instability.
At that point, it does not take much force to move the action in either direction, hence the name.
Strategy
As this post is being created, a quick check of ZeroHedge turns up this article, just released.
The article makes the statement as well, the bond bull market is over and uses the 10-yr Treasury to show the upside (yield) breakout.
The bottom line:
We’re in a highly dynamic environment where the typical money manager, financial advisor (as reported by Neil McCoy-Ward) finds themselves “clueless”.
If ever there was a point in time to focus exclusively on what price action is telling us using Wyckoff analysis, this is the time (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Unbeknownst to many, we’re witnessing a once-in-a-century opportunity and public service.
Those from the era of The Great Depression, are all gone now.
So, the same playbook can be run without anyone (alive) knowing we’ve been here before.
The public service presented to us, the massive on-going exposure of the financial charlatans and grifters.
You can be ‘certified’ and still be a certified (market) dolt.
Neil McCoy-Ward, points this out in his recent update linked here. Go to time stamp 8:40;
“Clueless” … “Completely Asleep”
Anyone who’s worked in the corporate world (in any sector), especially now, knows it’s near impossible to think or act independently.
So, it is with gold.
Gold & The Grifter Bandwagon
Where was everybody back in 2001, when gold was bottoming in the area of $270/oz., after a multi-decades long bear market (from 1980)?
The fact we have nothing but breathless panic from grifters and hangers-on, about rampant inflation should at least give one pause, we could be at a temporary or major reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
At least with the analysis below, there’s a decision point that will let us know if we’re due for another leg higher, or if there’s a Sovereign debt crisis about to break that would kick-off massive selling of all assets including gold.
Gold GLD, Weekly
As the title says, we’ve got something akin to a ‘Maginot Line’ for gold. What looks like insurmountable resistance that could still be breached … but for now, is holding.
With each (manufactured) crisis, gold’s momentum in the form of price and volume, is declining.
From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, the bulls (for now) are running out of steam.
The ‘terminating wedge’ in gold’s price action has already been discussed, link here.
Looking at the action in another light, we see a Wyckoff Up-Thrust in the works. Price action has penetrated a previous high and is currently struggling.
If gold (GLD) is able to significantly penetrate the resistance and hold, then we’re likely on to the hysterical predictions of the masses.
If not, and we get a reversal, it’s going to be big surprise for many. They’ll be stunned, unable to move and eventually provide more fuel for the downside as they sell in panic.
Downside Drivers
What could possibly be a downside driver for gold?
One has already been mentioned, a Sovereign debt crisis. It’s a likely event considering the record-pace rise for interest rates and subsequent bank failures.
Another is an ‘executive’ decision that gold ownership is outlawed. It’s happened in the past and those who got through that event are no longer with us.
Moving on, we’ve already been told there will be a ‘cyber-attack’.
What’s going to happen to gold, when there’s no electricity, fuel or food shipments?
As survivalist author Ron Foster says, in this interview, (time stamp 27:20), during a grid-down situation, he’s not giving up his food. He says, during such an event, precious metals are “meaningless”.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 