Monthly Archives: November 2024

It Will Be ‘Quick’

November 10, 2024 By in Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter 13 Comments

Greg Hunter’s Interview Notes; Ed Dowd

‘Blatant manipulation of government statistics’.

‘Real economy is rolling over’.

‘Our indicators are slammed to extremes, never before seen’.

‘GDP numbers don’t make any sense’.

‘Warren Buffett has the largest cash holding, ever‘.

‘Only one direction to go from here’.

And on it goes. Link is here.

The Big Takeaway

The real kicker though, is Dowd’s statement at time stamp 34:30 in the link; when the market finally does turn to the downside, ‘It will be quick’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading The ‘Crash Channel’

November 9, 2024 By in 1907, 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, Elliott Wave, Great Depression 2.0, Livermore, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX Tags: , , , ,

‘The Big Money’s in, The Big Move’ … Dr. Elder

The whole quote from Elder (paraphrasing):

‘The big money is in the big move but only the top-tier trader or speculator has the ability and skill to trade it…’

This ‘big money’ idea is exactly what Jesse Livermore figured out as part of his plan after years of making ‘piking bets’ on minor price fluctuations.

Ultimately, his method was to anticipate events about to happen in a ‘big way’.

He netted over $1 million, during the Panic of 1907, probably his best example of trading the big move.

Note: $1-mil, in 1907, is about $32-mil, today.

Here’s a chart of the ‘Panic‘.

Look how similar it is, to the chart of the QQQ bubble and the current position of the SOXX; except the (potential) wipe-out, of course. 🙂

Back at the 2000, bubble top in the Qs, we have the following.

Nasdaq QQQ, Weekly

Several trading channels can be identified; the most aggressive, is the one shown.

The channel above, lasted nearly three-months, from week-ending 1/26/01, to week-ending 4/6/01.

Note that price action rose for about three weeks in a ‘January Effect’ at the beginning of ’01, before rolling over in a big way.

There’s a lot going on in this chart. For example, the January effect rise took the Qs back to a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace of the entire down move.

Strategy

The coming days and weeks are going to let us know if the SOXX, is modeling the mania bubbles of the past (not advice, not a recommendation).

A possible important distinction: In the prior update, the SOXX, had two massive down-thrusts, not just one.

One could even argue there were three (week ending 7/19/24).

Does that mean we’re at an order of magnitude larger on what comes next?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nasdaq & A.I. Bubbles, Compared

November 8, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Nasdaq, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX 15 Comments

Similar Pattern … So Far

Two charts are presented below.

First, the Nasdaq bubble of the 2000s.

Then, the A.I. bubble in semiconductors, the SOXX.

Nasdaq QQQ, Weekly

Massive downward thrust indicated the mania was over.

The bubble in the SOXX, compared to the Qs, looks eerily similar except the trend break is missing (so far).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

Note, in the case of the SOXX, there were two massive down-thrusts.

The second (not highlighted) was Fibonacci 5-Weeks later.

Of course, nothing is known for sure until it’s all over.

However, the charts are similar.

There’s been a lot happening over the past few days.

Those events may have had all the effect they’re going to from an upside perspective (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Another False Breakout

November 7, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Gold & Silver, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, SLV, TLT

Bearish Case Continues

Silver seems to be like a stubborn mule, refusing to launch higher.

It was curious to see both silver and gold sell-off after Tuesday’s ‘results’.

When looking at the SLV, chart, the bearish case continues to build (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Weekly

We’ve got a clear bearish divergence on MACD, just about to ‘cross-over’ to the downside.

The economy (implosion) may already be baked into the cake, no matter what anyone does.

Interest rates continue to scream higher, bonds down (TLT), no matter what the Fed does.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Technical Observations

November 6, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

Orderly Descent (so far)

At this point, to be short this market is a judgement call (not advice, not a recommendation).

If there’s no appreciable upward action from this point, the SOXX is in an orderly decline.

Net distance traveled between the magenta lines and blue lines are approximately equal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX (short) Update

November 5, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

Waiting For The (next) Break

It can be nerve-wracking, waiting out the market to see what happens next.

As my mentor (David Weis) used to say, if you’re in a position “The mind remains active”, as the trade progresses, or fails.

Whatever your weaknesses are, the market will exploit them.

For now, we’re going to show just a segment of the SOXX, daily chart (as of 11:16 a.m., EST).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily (segment).

The important part here, is the attempt of the SOXX, to rally.

Each attempt posting a (daily) high just slightly less than the high before.

On can infer from the chart, if a new daily high is posted (above yesterday’s 222.46), then the trade is probably failing, time to exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Until then, we light up as many cigarettes as possible, attempting to stay calm. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Top Tick & Top

November 4, 2024 By in 1929, Dow 30, Great Depression 2.0, INTC, NVDA

Contrary Indicators

Intel (INTC) added to the Dow Jones on November 1st, 1999.

Intel (to be) removed from the Dow Jones on November 7th, 2024.

Replacing Intel, we have (surprise), Nvidia, who could have guessed. 🙂

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Buffett’s selling; not like it’s 1999, but more like it’s 1929.

Sentiment Indicators

Adding Nvidia, removing Intel, could be contrary indicators and potential (near) top-tick for NVDA (not advice, not a recommendation).

Buffett, an indicator of his own, marking the (potential) market top itself with his massive selling (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Rate ‘Expectations’

November 3, 2024 By in DRV, Interest Rates, IYR, Real Estate, Wyckoff

Bottled Air

Is this a new sequel to the Dickens classic?

Or is it a nightmare about to potentially unfold in a market (IYR), bloated and stretched on ‘expectations’ of lower rates.

Let’s go with the nightmare scenario and see if the charts support the premise.

A while back, this update, it showed price action in a potential ‘throw-over’ of a terminating wedge.

What’s happened since then.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

If it’s a ‘throw-over’, the past week’s action has entered back into the range; a classical analysis sell signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking at the chart from a contrary (bullish) perspective, price action could be in a flag, ready to move higher.

Technically speaking, action finished the week below the lows of weekending, October 11th; a Wyckoff Spring condition.

With that, a ‘blip’ higher is to be expected in the coming sessions; the question is, if it moves higher, will it fail?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Rate-ing Game

November 2, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

Rates Spike Big Time … Who Could Have Guessed?

Let’s use the ‘Way Back’ machine with Mr. Peabody and return to this post.

Back in mid-August, that analysis presented rates heading higher (not lower), as more probable.

One month after that, this update showed a ‘terminating wedge’ in the bond market, TLT.

Now, two and a half months after the first post, the rate spike’s hitting the news.

Once again, you have to ‘subscribe‘ to find out what’s already happened. Hmmm

Contrary Indicator

The fact rates are just now in the mainstream, could (as we’ll see below) indicate a potential hesitation of downside or an upside retrace.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

We’ll start first with the original ‘wedge’ post.

Now, for the updated version.

Obviously, there’s a lot going on in the chart.

Price action blew-through the measured move and has (potentially) culminated in a downside wash-out.

Or, behind Door Number 2, it could be a signal, rates are about to press-on higher like a juggernaut (not advice, not a recommendation)

The Fed Rides Again

Remember our last post on the Fed (possibly reversing the reversal), said to get your popcorn ready.

Looks like the show’s about to start.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, Between A Rock …

November 1, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

… And, The Hard Place

At the support line, it’s a battle between bulls and bears.

That struggle goes on constantly but there are times when the outcome’s especially important … like now.

The daily chart shows the events of the past few days

The up-thrust (reversal), the penetration of support and now, the attempt to ‘spring’.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

If there’s a ‘fundamental’ to keep in mind; we’re potentially in the biggest bubble (the A.I. mania) in world history (not advice, not a recommendation).

Even so, the price action is ‘truth’.

Will the ‘spring’ set-up pass or fail?

If the SOXX, gets itself ‘back into the range’, above the green line, it begins to weight probability for more upside.

If it can’t hang on at current levels, posts a new daily low, downside is more likely (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279