Biotech SPBIO, is in the process of testing yesterday’s action.
The hourly chart of the inverse fund LABD, has price action in the process of competing a secondary test.
The take-away is unchanged.
Biotech (SPBIO) looks like it’s preparing for a directional move (not advice, not a recommendation).
Price action thus far (since the support penetration), is consistent with that potential.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Art & Science: Interpreting price action requires both.
Since the September 2nd, high in biotech SPBIO and low for inverse LABD, the character of the market has changed.
Price action has become tight and orderly.
Typically, when that happens, someone (some entity) is gaining control. They are preparing the market for a directional move.
That’s the science part; the observation part.
Art is ephemeral. You don’t know if it matters to the subject at hand or not.
You won’t know until it becomes obvious.
In the markets, when it’s obvious, it’s too late.
News Of Note:
Within the past few days, there have been at least two news stories of note: Here and here.
It’s not really the stories themselves but what they represent.
Go to time stamp 8:10, at this link. That’s what it’s about.
The so-called controlling entities may be in the early stages of consuming each other.
What does that have to do the the markets and specifically biotech? Those thinking they were safe and getting fake ‘protection’ could be realizing, maybe they didn’t.
Maybe it was the real thing.
Mid Session:
SPBIO (Inverse, LABD):
The market’s had a change in character.
Whether or not the above links were the reason, just part of the reason or not at all, won’t be known until long after the market opportunity has passed.
We’ll start with the un-marked daily chart of leveraged inverse fund LABD:
Tight price action identified:
Now, it gets interesting.
We’ll zoom in on part of the tight area using the hourly chart:
LABD has oscillated around support and then penetrated that support as shown.
Price action rose dramatically from there. We’ll label it as a sign of demand (Wyckoff term).
Next, we have the testing action. David Weis used to call it “The Gut Check”.
Tests can either pass or fail. That currently puts LABD at the danger point.
Positioning:
My firm’s position remains unchanged: Short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
Summary:
As this post is being created, LABD is moving up off the test lows. So far, overall price action has been well behaved.
Thus far, there has been no major (news generating) price break.
That type of controlled movement allows large positions to be built carefully and quietly (not advice not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
You don’t have to go more than 1:18, into this interview to get an inaccurate definition of inflation.
With that said, it does not keep the (delusional) bugs in the comment section from eating it up.
The interviewer, if he had the strength, could have stopped it right there and challenged with: ‘Inflation is defined as the expansion of credit that results in increased demand that in turn results in higher prices.’
At this point in time, we’re in credit destruction (i.e. Wells Fargo shutting down credit lines) not expansion … um, which is deflation not inflation.
At this point, it looks like there will be complete destruction first which brings us to the next bullet item.
No. 5
Only Problems. No Solutions
Personal Anecdote. Skip to No. 6, if not interested.
Back in the day as an Engineering Manager, there were times an employee (usually an engineer) would walk into my office and give me a list of problems on a particular project.
If this happened a second time, I would sort of gently (maybe) let them know, ‘If you bring me problems, you need to have solutions as well.’
I also let them know, if they were not able to come with solutions, I would map out a long-term action plan (basically starting documentation for termination) for their continued development.
How many YouTube sites talk endlessly about the problem?
It does not take much effort or thought or creativeness to tell us what we already know.
This site not only presents the problem(s), but also presents potential solution(s) or action(s).
Example:
Problem: Markets stretched to valuations beyond historical extremes. Traditional methods of analysis (P/E ratios, Book Value. etc.) no longer work. The market could ‘disconnect’ and be unavailable to trade for days or weeks at a time (think Klaus Schwab ‘cyber attack’).
Solution: (not advice, not a recommendation):
Identify a market and trading vehicle that has its own direction and is separated from the overall mass-hysteria. Position ‘in and out’, as required in that market until such time there are other opportunities of similar potential.
That market thus far, has been identified as biotech, SPBIO. The trading vehicle is LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
Any disconnect or surprise event is already factored in as a likely positive for the position taken, i.e. being short biotech
We’re not only taking this approach for the current market environment but the supply chain as well.
The supply chain shut down and the potential famine that will ensue, is one of, if not the main reason(s) silver and gold may be of no use (at least temporarily) in the troubles to come.
Well, it would not be a compete ‘Notes’ update without mention of Scaboo.
Here he is at his new home … a few miles north of town.
As mentioned in the last update, the hen that gave him trouble at the outset, well, he’s got that all sorted out.
According to his new owners, he takes his job seriously.
He protects the hens and is meticulous about getting them into their coop at night. He then goes to his own coop; sort of a personal man-cave.
This picture was taken by the new owner.
You have to figure they must be pleased with him to wait long enough to capture such a majestic pose.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Maybe, it turns out that some people don’t want to be in the spotlight after all.
Click on the link.
See if your jaw doesn’t drop with how casually the interview discusses things we (the serfs) should not know.
That interview (at least the ‘tweet’) is from February, this year. So, maybe this is old news to some.
Even so, it’s just one of the many bricks in the wall for biotech.
With that said, let’s take a look at our chief cook and bottle washer: SPBIO
SPBIO (and inverse, LABD) Analysis:
The last update said that we expected SPBIO, to decline and LABD, to rise from current levels.
That’s exactly what happened.
As usual, we’ll start with the unmarked chart:
Obviously, biotech’s not moving higher.
At Friday’s close, it’s down – 28.4%, from the all time highs posted February, this year.
Market Insight:
The ‘tweet’ in the link above, is dated February 9th, 2021.
The all time high for biotech SPBIO, was the very same day: February 9th, 2021.
Remember, there are no coincidences.
Let’s mark up the daily chart; showing that Friday was an outside-down (key reversal) day.
The right-most area of the chart has been zoomed-in.
Higher high, lower low and lower close:
The next chart is where it gets interesting.
We’ve included a Fibonacci projection; going from all time highs to lows in May and then counter-trend high on June 28th:
It’s clear the 23.6%, projection level has been an axis line.
SPBIO, price action has oscillated about this area for months.
With Thursday’s ‘a-b-c’ corrective move and Friday’s outside-down reversal, that axis oscillation may be complete.
If SPBIO is to head lower from this point (which is expected), we’ll watch to see if price action ‘respects’ the Fibonacci projections; that is, will price action head lower to 38%, then 50%, and on?
Positioning:
Friday was a good day to be short via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
Biotech, is nowhere near all time highs. The sector is essentially running neck-and-neck with GDX, to the downside.
The expectation’s for SPBIO to head lower in the coming week.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As is typical for this site, we’ll let the bulls duke it out with the bears. We’ll wait and see if we’re at a reversal point (trend-line) or if we’re headed to up-thrust condition.
If GLD breaks the trend-line, getting back to the 170 – 171, level (up-thrust), imagine the hysteria. 🙂
Lastly, Biotech (LABD):
First: Did we exit LABD?
Answer is No (not advice, not a recommendation)
Second: Why?
The price action thrusts below support that have been reported in prior posts were indeed spring set-ups.
However, it’s obvious now, they were not THE set-up.
The chart shows LABD has met an ‘a-b-c’ measured move target.
The idealized form of an ‘a-b-c’ corrective move, is shown with the blue lines and notations:
At this juncture, wave ‘a’ net distance traveled, is equal to ‘c’ and wave ‘b’ net distance, is about 50% the length of wave ‘a’.
These measurements are typical for ‘a-b-c’.
Positioning:
My firm’s main position is still showing a good profit and we’re going to maintain short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
However, as with GDX being at the danger point before its rally, so too is biotech at the danger point (prior to a potential decline).
Expectations are for LABD to retrace higher from current levels.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’re using the leveraged inverse fund LABD, for our analysis (SPBIO down, LABD up).
Yesterday, closed with the 4-Hour chart above.
Annotating with Force Index numbers; each early session 4-Hour bar for the past two days, has been posted on decreasing downward thrust (last two magenta down-arrows).
In addition, the first four hours of the last session penetrated support and then retraced in the next four hours (last bar).
That sets up a spring condition as shown:
Taking Forever?
If this really is the crest of a major (overall market) reversal, we need to remind ourselves, it’s a massive juggernaut.
Said many times, we (my firm) are looking and working on the big move (not advice, not a recommendation).
By definition, it’s not a popular method.
Nothing seems to be happening … until it does. Then, it’s too late to position.
Pre-Market:
With about 17-minutes to go before the open, LABD is trading unchanged.
Obviously, the first four hours of trade will be important.
The market (LABD) could continue to grind lower … or we may be at the end of the counter-trend move; ready to reverse upward for LABD and down for SPBIO.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The best way to hide something, is to put it out there for all to see:
In plain sight
However, for the oligarch’s target audience, the proletariat, they can’t actually ‘see’. It’s all by design.
They’re hypnotized, programmed, demoralized; just doing and not thinking.
Which home improvement center has the tag line played over and over through their speaker system (paraphrasing) ‘doers getting things done’.
If you think about it, ‘Doers’ don’t think. They just ‘do’. A perfectly controllable, mindless herd.
Going one step further, is to have these proles so mentally damaged, they actually think, there’re thinking.
Which brings us to our chief cook and bottle washer for the day: Southwest Airlines
Southwest Cancels Flights:
The official company line is cancellations were due to weather which is obviously not true.
This report from KHOU in Houston, says the cancellations were about something else. It’s in the title but that’s not what the news story’s really about.
Go ahead and watch. Stop the video after thirty seconds and tell me (figuratively) what’s the real intent.
If you can ‘see’, it’ll be obvious.
Actually, this was an easy one.
This news story has nothing to do with cancellations and everything to do with ‘compliance.’
Present the image over and over of compliance (masks) and then it takes on a life of its own.
For example, we can see that type of compliance in this Facebook post (at left) put out in my area just yesterday.
It’s not hard to surmise (and tragically, so) there’s probably not going to be a ‘Second Year’ photo shoot.
This Is Now:
I have family members that essentially fall into two camps:
The first, plugs their ears and chant “la, la, la, it’s not happening”.
The other camp mumbles over and over (for years now) “it shouldn’t be this way”.
Neither camp has, is, or will do anything to get ready.
Icing on the cake is the typical response of, ‘Your information’s not from a reputable source’.
What, like Fox News?
You may, and probably do have similar stories.
In line with it’s not happening, or the government should fix it so it won’t be this way, we have Dan from I Allegedly.
He just posted another update. At time stamp 20:20, people are still expecting a fourth stimulus check.
That’s something else that’s not happening.
Which all brings us to what really is happening … our second topic of the day: Biotech
Biotech SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:
It’s been an up day for biotech (down for LABD) thus far but that’s not the real story.
The chart below is from earlier in the session. We’re looking at the leveraged inverse fund LABD, on the hourly basis:
Next, we have our ‘usual suspects’ mark-up showing us the potential opportunity:
From a personal standpoint, being short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) has been tiring.
Especially on days like today.
You can watch your main account fluctuate (in the red) by what used to be, in the corporate world, two to four week’s pay; all happening in a single hour.
However, even as this post is being created, we now have LABD posting the following:
Upside action off the spring looks strong. However, there could still be a downward test.
SPBIO, Last Chance?:
Intuitively, this could be it for biotech (SPBIO) to the upside.
The reason for that conclusion is:
If the spring set up holds with sustained upward action in LABD, it sets up a potential measured move condition (not shown); targeting LABD to much higher levels.
In that case, SPBIO would move lower … much lower and possibly well past any nearby major support.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Just like the biotech sector intentionally euthanizing (a polite word for what’s really happening) its customer base, here we have another entity calling out its own followers as the problem.
It’s similar to the rabid, mindless, one-way (only goes up) gold bulls crying ‘it’s all rigged’, when their pathetic attempts at analysis don’t work out; we now have another entity citing YOU as the problem when the forecasts fall flat.
This is yet another so-called financial source that can be permanently crossed off the watch list.
Brutal, But Beneficial:
Admittedly, the ‘tone’ of the posts on this site are not for everyone.
Even mild-mannered Dan at I Allegedly, finds himself responding to snowflakes that complain about his ‘get ready’ posts.
There’s good reason why the average are so ignorant.
For those who were actually listening in middle-school, the history books conveniently leave out the part where millions of Americans died of starvation during the Great Depression.
No pictures of emaciated bodies. Nothing.
With what’s coming, we’re likely headed for mass casualties in one form or another. The financial community refuses (from what I’ve seen) to discuss this up-coming event.
For example:
If you’re still using a ‘financial advisor’ and they’re not talking about, or don’t know about the elephant, do you really want to be (paying for and) taking direction from someone who’s that lazy, fearful, or ignorant?
Prechter, said it himself when he stated, the next mega bear market’s going to wipe out the ‘wealth management’ industry.
We may be on the cusp of that now.
Not Advice:
With that said, this site does not, and will not give financial advice.
Each person has his (her) own situation in life. You are the one to decide on your next direction or action.
What this site does do, is attempt to provide analysis and supporting price action data on what’s really going on.
What’s the market saying about itself?
If you’re still reading, that was a very long intro to get to our topic for the day: Gold miners, GDX.
Wyckoff Analysis: Senior Miners, GDX
What we see from the weekly chart is straightforward.
GDX, has been channeling lower for about a year:
The next chart shows we’ve penetrated support and are now testing the underside.
Of note: GDX is in ‘spring’ position. An upward attempt is to be expected.
If GDX was to break out and start a sustained bull move, this would be the spot. We’re at the danger point.
In my view, the participants in this sector are borderline delusional, if not completely insane.
They disregard what the market’s actually doing; holding to a (so far, for years now) unverified belief that ‘$10,000/oz gold, is just around the corner.’
It could very well be … but only after the (possibly, soon to be) starving stackers have sold off their hoard to buy food.
One has to wrap their mind around the fact, we’re being subjected to a long term diabolical plan.
Thinking and acting with that long game in mind (in my view) provides at least a hope for not only survival, but positioning to prosper during the on-going collapse.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Biotech (SPBIO) is still well off the highs and in bear market (below 20%) territory.
We’re going to take the last section of the chart, highlighted below and expand it out to hourly.
Hourly detail is below:
There was a minor penetration of support yesterday, the 6th; that has resulted in a spring condition upward move.
Now, we’re at the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace of the down-move that started on September 2nd.
Spring-To-Up-Thrust ?
Looking at the hourly, it’s clear just a little farther up and we’ll penetrate minor resistance (which is also the 23.6%, retrace). Doing so, would put price action in the all too familiar and well documented ‘spring to up-thrust’ condition.
At mid-session, with SPBIO retreating (slightly) from the highs, it may not make it to up-thrust, today.
However, one still needs to be aware of the possibility.
Positioning:
As my firm is positioned short this sector (not advice, not a recommendation), being in the red for the day is never fun.
However, at this juncture, the charts themselves say there’s nothing untoward about maintaining short.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
You would think with all the announcements about corporations (forcing) their employees to become ‘fully protected’, the biotech sector would be launching higher.
After all, that sector’s about to get a massive increase in revenue as the major players continue on with their ‘protection’ plan.
Looks like 1,400 non-compliant, undesirables have been dealt with.
Let’s do some math.
If that was 2% of the workforce, that means just for this employer alone, approximately 68,600 (subtracting 1,400 from 70,000) have now received a ‘bonus’ from the company.
If the scientific (real science) estimates are correct, the ‘elephant‘ will begin to kick in within six months and be fully effective (terminal) within five years.
This example is not the only one … Southwest Airlines just announced a similar push; fully ‘protected’ by the end of the year.
With all this good news, one would expect the biotech sector (SPBIO) to be launching higher in an unstoppable rally.
Um, no.
Let’s take a look at what’s really going on with the price action.
SPBIO (and 3X inverse, LABD):
We’re going to use the 3X inverse SPBIO fund LABD, for our analysis.
We’re about 30-minutes past the open and SPBIO, is heading lower with inverse LABD, moving higher:
We’re going to digress just a bit; updating on the ‘alternating’ action discussed in this update.
Price action above, is choppy and overlapping. That’s different from what we see now:
With all that being said, it’s possible LABD, has just confirmed the right side of a trend-line:
As a reminder, biotech (SPBIO) is the only major index that just finished three down quarters in a row.
If current action continues … it’s on track to make it four.
Wyckoff said it a century ago:
‘Somebody always knows something. That something, is reflected in the tape (price action)’.
The lies and reality don’t match. Biotech is losing steam … possibly in anticipation of an ‘event’ of some kind.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 