Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Today’s price action in real estate (IYR) looks like a test of the failed breakout (up-thrust) from February.
This session, price action came all the way back to support (87.90), which is now resistance.
The important part, the level did not hold. Late in the session there was erosion and retreat to close well below the day’s highs.
This type of behavior is near textbook for a significant reversal.
From a trading perspective, the short position via DRV was maintained (not advice, not a recommendation) except for reducing the position by about 2.5% … essentially negligible.
Today’s test and erosion is one of those few times where probabilities are high; the market’s tested the up-thrust (failed breakout) and we can expect prices to decline from here.
One last note adding weight: Today is Fibonacci Day 8, from the high on February 25th.
With conditions noted, posting a test high today, then backing off … indicates downside ahead.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
AMT’s the big cap leader in the real estate sector, IYR. Four weeks ago, a potential reversal was covered in this report. Since then, it’s been a dramatic move to the downside.
Early Session Update, DRV as noted below:
The weekly chart above, shows about 20-months of price action. Included (but faint to see) is the Fibonacci projection tool.
The same chart below, has key areas highlighted for clarity.
At this juncture, AMT’s adhering (almost exactly) to downside Fibonacci projection levels.
However, once it becomes obvious, markets tend to break away from predictable paths.
So, we’ll see what happens next.
At this point, there’s no doubt, AMT’s reversed down and not showing signs of a bottom
Positioning:
The firm’s position has not changed. We’re short this sector via DRV (not advice, not a recommendation). The last update noted the short position was increased during Friday’s late session rally.
At the trader’s discretion, DRV position is being maintained (past the soft-stop).
Summary:
This week’s action may tell us if we’re going to continue oscillating about the axis line discussed here, or if now’s the time for a decisive move lower.
In a forthcoming report, we’ll discuss market alternation and how the character of the AMT reversal has changed.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With the kids at the card-table, freaking about ‘plunge protection team‘, rigged markets and Bitcoin, grownups the next table over, are planning their moves.
Friday’s late session rebound higher was not uncommon for a typical short squeeze.
These gyrations are intended to make sure only a select few are aboard when we get the break.
This idea is not new. You’ll find statements to that effect over and over in most any trading book.
The big difference now, is the amazing level of complacency and learned helplessness of the overall population.
Just one example of such before we move on to the charts.
Texas has opened up. Schools are about to go without diapers. Perish the thought.
Yet, there’s still a contingent that’s near hysteria about ‘safety’.
With all the information available, yes one actually has to do real research to find out what’s going on, huge segments of the population adamantly remain (intentionally) ignorant.
Unfortunately, that segment has voluntarily (at least in the U.S.) lined themselves up to be taken out; financially as well as physically.
Just a few of the most recent links, here, here, and here.
At some point, those links are going to become common knowledge.
Hopefully, there will be long lasting and certain retribution for the perpetrators. However, for those who ‘volunteered’, it’s already too late.
Now, on to the markets.
Friday’s real estate rebound (IYR) looked like short-squeeze action.
In response to that and late in the session, short position DRV (3X inverse IYR) was increased at price 9.37 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Volatility is still low in IYR. Short positions can be increased with less risk.
The Big Break
When and if the break comes, it’s likely to be fast; no time to plan.
Whatever plans one has should’ve been laid out well ahead of time.
Two markets being watching closely are Peabody Energy (BTU) and Seabridge Gold (SA).
By now everyone’s aware that a certain far east country is going about its business and building their infrastructure … as if nothing had ever happened. Funny that.
Conversely, the coal market has bottomed out and so has Peabody.
On top of that, the Texas Freeze laid bare the farce that is climate change, global warming and green energy.
Quietly, without fanfare, coal is seeing increased demand.
The blue arrow is a gap in trading that could be filled.
To do that, there might have to be a massive market collapse, pushing BTU back to that level … if only temporarily.
Huge volume in the past six months shows that somebody’s buying.
The next market is Seabridge Gold (SA) which is being watched for essentially the same reasons. If Van Metre is right and we’re in a deflationary impulse, the entire public’s on the wrong side of the trade.
If SA can get itself below 13 – 14, it then enters free-fall territory.
If that happens, as with BTU, it too might be a short lived event.
Positioning:
Currently, the firm’s position (not advice, not a recommendation) is short biotech and real estate via LABD and DRV, respectively.
If BTU and SA get to extreme lows, both of them have potential for a ‘ten-bagger’, the possibility to gain over 1,000%.
Getting to such gains would necessitate a change in the current strategy of trading, to buy and hold.
Summary:
Pressure seems to be building for some unexpected event that would cause a market break; Possibly the devaluation of the Yuan as discussed by Steven Van Metre.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Interest rate sensitive markets are on the move … lower.
Updated 3:02 p.m. EST, as noted below
Fastenal (FAST), Home Depot (HD), Lowes (LOW), Real Estate (IYR), Weyerhaeuser (WY), Homebuilders (XHB), all taking a hit early in the session.
In their own way, there’re interest rate sensitive and related to real estate, construction or maintenance.
Since mid-January this year, real estate, IYR was identified as a potential strategic short opportunity.
Numerous shorts (via DRV) were opened, some exited (not advice not a recommendation).
On February 25th, it was obvious in early trading, this is it.
Reversal at hand.
The last of the shorts via DRV was opened and documented here (not advice, not a recommendation). Now in today’s session, we have a completed wedge and apparent downside breakout in progress.
There’s a lot of congestion to get through before (if and when) IYR reaches ‘free-fall’ territory. A lot could happen between now and then.
Even so, it’s fairly safe to say, price action’s not likely to come back to the IYR session high.
But that’s exactly what it did … and pushed just a bit higher (+0.15-pts).
So, we’ll set the DRV stop at that location (session low) … approximately 9.41; not advice, not a recommendation.
With the above push, the DRV stop will be set at today’s session low (currently 9.39).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Nothing gets sharks in the water faster, than a failed move.
Last Friday, real estate IYR closed below support (black line). Doing so, put itself in Wyckoff spring position.
‘Spring position’ is a technical condition of instability where price can reverse dramatically.
At the open yesterday, that’s exactly what happened. IYR launched nearly instantly to a 50% retrace.
From there it was a long day of moderate price erosion all the way to the last hour; then it all went south.
IYR closed just 0.22 points higher or +0.25%, after being as high as +1.73 points (+1.98%), early in the session. In addition, that close was back below support on the heaviest volume since February 2nd. … another bearish sign.
We can see momentum, MACD has exhausted itself and posted numerous bearish divergences.
On the fundamental side, just in the past 24-hours, there’s been a raft of news articles posted showing commercial real estate’s in serious trouble.
IYR could still rally from here. However, with the conditions described in this post, it’s not likely.
Summary:
We’ve been short this market in a big way (not advice, not a recommendation) via DRV. The plan is to increase position size as long as price action allows low risk entries.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 