Category Archives: DRV

Real Estate … Dead at Resistance

January 17, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-25-01, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-01, Real Estate, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Repeating Set-Up

Real estate (IYR) has pushed higher above resistance and stopped dead; currently trading in a very narrow range.

It wouldn’t be all that interesting if price action was not in a repeating set-up:

Wyckoff Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Click on the side bar under the same name to see all posts related to this set-up.

Note: A set-up does not guarantee anything.

It’s just a market observed phenomenon that may result in a directional move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate IYR, Daily

There it is:

This is what’s called The Danger Point®

The risk of being wrong on a short position is at its least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning (updates)

Biotech XBI is spending a lot of time hovering around support and not progressing downward (no matter all the Fibonacci correlations).

With that, LABD-25-01 was closed at slightly above break even (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real estate IYR was entered short early in the session via leveraged inverse DRV, as trade DRV-25-01. Stop for the trade is currently the session low. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate, Hits Support

January 11, 2025 By in DRV, IYR, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, SRS, Wyckoff

What’s Next?

Since late November, last year, real estate IYR, has essentially gone straight down.

In that time, it’s dropped -13.5%.

As we’ll see, IYR, has hit and penetrated support.

So, what’s next?

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

Note the ‘S’ and ‘U’ labeling.

It’s our repeating pattern of ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’.

Also note, the initial bounce off support the prior two-weeks before last week’s (slight) penetration.

That ‘bounce’ did not go far, indicating continued weakness.

Even so, the last bar puts us in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position; some type of upward attempt would be ‘normal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that upward bounce does not happen or fails quickly, then it implies (continued) lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Rate ‘Expectations’

November 3, 2024 By in DRV, Interest Rates, IYR, Real Estate, Wyckoff

Bottled Air

Is this a new sequel to the Dickens classic?

Or is it a nightmare about to potentially unfold in a market (IYR), bloated and stretched on ‘expectations’ of lower rates.

Let’s go with the nightmare scenario and see if the charts support the premise.

A while back, this update, it showed price action in a potential ‘throw-over’ of a terminating wedge.

What’s happened since then.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

If it’s a ‘throw-over’, the past week’s action has entered back into the range; a classical analysis sell signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking at the chart from a contrary (bullish) perspective, price action could be in a flag, ready to move higher.

Technically speaking, action finished the week below the lows of weekending, October 11th; a Wyckoff Spring condition.

With that, a ‘blip’ higher is to be expected in the coming sessions; the question is, if it moves higher, will it fail?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Missed It By … ‘That Much’

October 30, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DRV, DRV-24-06, IYR, Real Estate, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Thanks Go To, Maxwell Smart

As seen in the chart below, target for the SOXX, retrace was off by just a few (trading) hours.

‘Missed it by that much‘

The attack on SOXX, resistance, near 234 – 236, held; now, there was a huge gap-lower open.

Just to restate the purpose (usefulness) of Wyckoff analysis, fundamentals had nothing to do with identifying the potential up-thrust, then reversal.

With that, let’s move on.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

The markings in the prior update have been re-created; showing how close price action came to target(s) in both location and time.

Back then, was this:

Now, we have this:

For those who have the David Weis training CD, the above scenario was described by him (seventeen years ago), almost to the exact ‘T’.

Positioning

Following the guidance of the late master, a short has already been opened; SOXS-24-20 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stats: SOXS entry @ 19.98, Stop @ 19.81 (or the session low), ‘risk’ is 0.17-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other Trades

Early in the session, the short on IYR, trade DRV-24-06, was closed right at the stop; loss was 0.34-pts. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

D.R. Horton Takes A Hit

October 29, 2024 By in DHI, DRV, DRV-24-06, IYR, Real Estate

Then, Commercial Battles At Trendline

As of this post, D. R. Horton is down about -10.5%, in early trading.

Evidently, the market did not like the earnings release.

It’s too late to position for downside in DHI; are there other opportunities?

Let’s look at the commercial sector, IYR

Real Estate, IYR, Daily

Reference the last post (and others) for an overall view.

We’re still in the possible ‘throw-over’ discussed in this update.

Positioning:

Noted in the sidebar, (trade) action has already been taken:

DRV-24-06: Entry at 24.22, Stop @ 23.88, ‘risk’ 0.34-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Stretched

October 21, 2024 By in Bonds, DRV, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Real Estate, SRS, TLT, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Massive Wedge Pattern

Bonds (TLT) reversed on 9/17/24, the day before the Fed ‘cut’ and never looked back.

Rates continue to rise.

Meanwhile, real estate (IYR), has been whistling past the graveyard; that is, until now.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

If the wedge is in-effect and we’re in a throw-over about to return into the pattern, it signals a very bearish condition (not advice, not a recommendation).

Even the illustrious financial press is starting to catch on that something’s not quite right. 🙂

Of course, you have to ‘subscribe’ for information like this.

As for this site, the current (bond) reversal was first identified and discussed, here.

Back then …

“Looking at the Fed calendar, link here, it’s a very interesting date; ‘the day after’ November 5th.

Let’s see if the ‘rate cut’ is immediately reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).”

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Downside Slows (for now)

October 11, 2024 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-24-05, IYR, TLT

Trading at Support Area

Bonds are at support and hesitating.

Conversely, the IYR downside action has also reduced.

Based on those two indications, the IYR short, DRV-24-05, has been exited for now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Profit on the trade was approximately +4.26%.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily

It’s been a beating for bonds in the past few weeks.

Let’s see if there is some type of upside recovery (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds … The October Surprise

October 6, 2024 By in Bonds, Dollar, DRV, DRV-24-05, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Prechter, Real Estate, TLT, Usual Suspects, UUP, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , ,

Will The ‘Wedge’, Close The ‘Spead’

Bonds traded down hard last Friday.

With the reversal now obvious (since the Fed announcement, September 18th), we have the usual suspects putting out ‘content’ (here and here) letting you know what’s already happened.

In Prechter’s book, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, he states, being part of the herd, is hard-wired into the brain.

Therefore, it takes diligent, consistent effort, to go against the mindless (limbic brain) herd if you’re going to make an objective observation.

So, let’s do just that, taking an objective look at the potential effects of the bond reversal.

Bonds (TLT proxy) began its reversal, rates higher, the day before the last Fed announcement.

The IYR, reached its high that Wednesday, 9/18/24.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

It’s been nearly three years since the all-time high in December, of 2021. The wedge shown below has been just over a year in the making.

The reversal action of the past few weeks can be seen in the ‘Throw-Over’ area of the chart.

If the wedge has been identified correctly, price action has now entered back into that formation.

Positioning

This post highlighted a short position was on the horizon.

This post confirmed.

This post connected the dots with the bond market.

That same post presented a tentative stop above break even on DRV-24-05 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trend or Not

We may know as early as tomorrow’s session (Monday), if IYR has established and confirmed a downtrend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Closing The ‘Spread’

October 4, 2024 By in Bonds, David Weis, DE, DRV, DRV-24-05, Interest Rates, IYR, Real Estate, TLT Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

If The Correlation Remains Intact

As the chart shows, real estate and bonds (interest rates) have been well correlated for over three years.

There are times, when that correlation gets ‘spread’; one market goes one way, while the other market goes … well, the ‘other’ way.

That time appears to be now.

Long Bonds TLT & Real Estate IYR, Daily Close

Note how the ‘spread’ eventually gets closed.

Note: The first spread on the left part of the chart took several months to close (completed in late July 2023).

The correlation remained near exact until about January 2024, where it began to diverge again.

Now, we’re spread with bonds heading lower (rates higher) helped along with the latest ‘jobs data‘.

Positioning

If time permits, we’ll go into price action posted yesterday and how this series of two IYR, price bars, yesterday, the day before, are (almost) exactly like DE (John Deere) price action shown by Daivd Weis on his video … except taking it from a short perspective.

Current position DRV-24-05, remains intact; stop now moved tentatively to the DRV session low for today (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Reversal

October 3, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-24-05, Interest Rates, IYR, LABD, LABD-24-19, Real Estate, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Sudden Turn

Watch for failed moves.

When an apparent move fails, it tells you the other side’s exhausted.

That’s when the sharks move in.

It could be happening to IYR, right now; yesterday’s ‘reversal’ bar, has failed (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update on the sector, link here gave a head’s up, a reversal appeared likely.

Now, we have more confirmation with the failed move shown below.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Yesterday, IYR, had penetrated support (blue line) and was in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That spring (set-up) has failed.

Now, it gets interesting.

Bonds (TLT) continue lower with rates continuing higher; the exact opposite of what the public thinks is ‘supposed’ to happen.

Positioning

Naturally, with the above conditions a short was opened DRV-24-05, with the stop at DRV’s session low @ 23.89 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, the short on XBI (LABD-24-19) is not performing as expected. Today is lower but there’s no new daily low (as of 11:55 a.m., EST).

Position was exited with a loss of – 2.48%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279