The real kicker though, is Dowd’s statement at time stamp 34:30 in the link; when the market finally does turn to the downside, ‘It will be quick’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
While the financial press (pictured at left) is fumbling around, trying to figure out if the market’s up or down, for this site it’s not about ‘up’ or ‘down’, but what the market itself is telling us.
Case in point, this past week.
Remember, at the beginning of the week, major brokers blew-up and locked up.
You couldn’t log-on whether long or short.
Surprising Speed
Posts on this site gave numerous clues (prior to last Monday), that we’re at risk of a downturn.
Two examples of potential downside were August 1st, Carvana’s ‘Interesting’ Numbers, posted here; the next day, Correction … or … Crash? posted here.
All released well before the Monday, August 5th, wipeout.
One thing to note as Ed Dowd points out (link here) is the speed of the downdraft.
Was this past Monday’s market action (and brokerage blow-ups) part of the new paradigm, the new normal?
With that, let’s take a look at what’s likely to happen (or set-up), next. The last post showed a potential short sale set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).
Finance Sector XLF, Daily
If price action continues higher, shown as the inserted back bar, the plan is to stand aside or exit, if short (not advice, not a recommendation).
Next, if we get downward action posting a new daily low, shown as the magenta bar, that’s a potential short entry (not advice, not a recommendation).
Of course, not shown is the scenario where the market does nothing and remains flat.
Based on last week’s hysteria and this additional update from Ed Dowd, link here, markets doing nothing seems to be the least likely outcome.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Before we get to the ‘independent source’, a quick review of the June 21st, update (emphasis added):
“With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).”
That was based on a wide gamut of data with none of it, ‘fundamentals’, except ‘the money’s gone’; the conclusion, NVDA, may be at a significant inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).
All of that, on this site, right here in River City. 🙂
Independant Source
Now, we have this from Ed Dowd, link here (time stamp: 5:45, 8:30, and 9:40) saying NVDA, had an ‘exhaustion top’, posting on two timeframes.
Note: Wyckoff analysis, with its century-old technique, is coming to the same conclusions as the Wall Street ‘number crunchers’ with near-infinite computing power.
Now, on to the chart.
Nvidia NVDA, Daily
The trading channel (blue lines) is potential only, not confirmed.
What we do have, is once again, NVDA being influenced by Fibonacci time-correlation(s).
Nvidia reversed on Fibonacci Week 89, from the October 14th, 2022, lows.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The past five ‘Silver Top’ updates have looked at recent action, as a potential top and downside reversal.
The ‘Part V’, update (link here), included a ‘measured move’ target.
In the markets, an infinite number of events can be true simultaneously. Dr. Elder covers this in his book, with individual traders working multiple timeframes.
All of which brings us to the chart below.
Silver SLV, Monthly
From previous updates, we’re hovering around the support resistance zone.
Now, we can see price action’s also hitting the top of a trading channel.
The question of course is, what’s the next likely outcome?
Even without considering what else is going on in other markets, a pause, sideways congestion, or downward testing seems to be the highest probability (not advice, not a recommendation).
Did The ‘Bubble’ Just Pop?
When we do take other events into account, wide swings in the SOXX on Friday, Nvidia posting a narrow range weekly bar, a potential top indicator, Ed Dowd said, when this all implodes, there’ll be margin calls aplenty.
The technical situation of the SOXX, is planned for tomorrow’s update.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If there’s one market attracting huge numbers of grifters, carpetbaggers, peddlers, and all-around crazies, it’s precious metals.
I’ve been hearing from this crowd, ‘the government’s going to collapse, the dollar’s going to collapse’, since the early 1980s.
As said many times before, I like precious metals as much as the next guy.
However, from a strategy standpoint, with each passing day, we see it’s the food supply (here, and here) that comes first (not advice, not a recommendation).
What’s currently taking place is so much more complicated (in my opinion) than just ‘stacking’.
Let’s not forget the flood of ‘fake’ or ‘diluted‘ precious metals and other chicanery; like having your coin-shop bank account closed for no apparent reason.
Well, we have to keep the loonies on the path which brings us to our case in point, Newmont Mining, NEM.
Newmont, Good News is Bad News
Gold price has moved higher over the past four to five months and expectedly, that’s been noted in Newmont’s latest Quarterly release, link here.
NEM, stock price at ‘nine-month highs’, what’s not to like?
It’s when we look at the chart, we see a different story.
Newmont Mining, NEM, Weekly
After all the ‘good news’, NEM has only retraced an anemic 23.6%, of its overall downside move.
Note the close on Friday was right at the 23.6% level, giving it even more significance.
This level has also become an ‘axis line’ as exhibited by price action going back to August of 2022.
By The Numbers
When looking through the major sectors, retrace (and reversal) from 23.6%, is becoming more frequent.
Two other indices posting and reversing from that level (measured from recent highs), are biotech XBI, and real estate, IYR.
NEM, What’s Next?
Thursday, 4/25, was a wide bar with heavy volume.
We’ve stopped at the retrace, which is also resistance, confirmed by price action in late December. ’23.
A reasonable expectation is NEM, retraces, testing the wide bar and volume before continuing to the downside or moving back higher to a breakout (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Before we get started, recognize there’s a huge public service available with the (media, YouTubers, et al.) discussion on potential gold, silver, rally ‘to the moon’.
Now that Nvidia (NVDA) has posted a reversal, it’s likely the bull market, if not completely over, is seriously damaged.
As Ed Dowd, former BlackRock fund manager suggested, (link here), when the market turns lower, everything’s likely to head down … everything; at least, initially.
The public service: We get to see (in real time) which analysis method is best suited to determine the truth of what’s really happening.
With that, let’s move on to the chart.
Silver SLV, Tracking ETF, Weekly
If this is an initial thrust to move higher, it’s losing energy; narrow range (weekly) bar with volume contracting.
If we’re in an up-thrust about, to reverse lower or consolidate, this is the type of market behavior to expect (not advice, not a recommendation).
Delusional In … Delusional Out
Like the Artificial Intelligence (AI) delusion, hyped-up beyond all conceivable expectations, it takes a while to deflate.
This past Friday may have been the start.
So too, it could be with precious metals.
If indeed, this time is different, and were in a sustained, long term (years-long) rally for silver (SLV), then look for the character of the price action to change.
One potential example of that would be, successive gaps higher of $5/oz., $10/oz., or more.
A real bull market breakout (like the S&P in 1995), does not let you get aboard comfortably.
Note: That breakout in ’95, was a complete shock to the typical market watcher.
The S&P had oscillated in a trading range for a year before launching decidedly higher in early ’95. In that sense, the breakout is/was the complete opposite of the ‘long awaited’ (potential) bull run in precious metals.
The Mood Has Shifted
Anecdotally, the mood appears to have shifted.
If we’ve just past the top in the market (S&P, Dow, SOXX), then expect the social construct to become unhinged.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Before we get started, biotech may have decisively turned the corner to the downside with this, just out … maybe.
‘Zero Respect For Thieves’
Before we get started, with getting started, a brief mention on thievery.
Years ago, Dr. Elder stated he had ‘zero respect for thieves’; those who had stolen his book tile, ‘Trading For A Living’, in various forms.
When you have limited skills and even less insight, thievery is the only way to go … that is, until you’re found-out.
Turns out, the analysis of silver SLV, posted on this site (here and here) nearly two weeks ago, specifically the presence of SLV volume ‘spikes’ at inflection points, may have been ‘lifted’ without citation by a prominent YouTuber (who will not be named … yet).
It may have been just a coincidence. If so, all is well. However, a ‘second time’, not so much. So, let’s all play ‘nice’ shall we? 🙂
Now, on to biotech.
Biotech, XBI, Daily
This update is being released just before the open. It looks like XBI, is about gap-lower.
We see in the chart, XBI, is respecting the Fibonacci projections.
As with the recent oil market analysis and USO, (here and here) we let the market decide what areas are important.
In the case of XBI, and unless significant demand comes in, lower prices appear to be the most probable direction (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
In just one day, Globe Life closes down – 53.14%, on historic volume, over 35-million shares.
No matter the narrative, it shows just how fast a market can implode.
Years ago, while watching an episode of Wall Street Week, with Louis Rukeyser, one of his guests commented on a corporation that released (unexpectedly) bad earnings.
He said … ‘I believe in the cockroach theory. Where there’s one, there’s more’.
Does anyone think Globe Life is, or will be, an isolated incident? This could even be a ‘Lehman Moment‘ and we just don’t know it (not advice, not a recommendation).
Up-coming (potential) problems with life insurance have already been covered; best described in this brief four-minute clip, link here.
The Biotech Connection
The connection between biotech and life insurance can be correlated with this link and this one.
Biotech, XBI, Daily
The chart below, is slightly different from one’s typically presented on this site.
It’s on the daily timeframe but it’s compressed to better show the sector sub-dividing lower.
Yesterday’s Fibonacci analysis may still apply but we won’t really know until we see tomorrow’s action.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
YouTube content creators have noticed the public’s inability, refusal, and denial to recognize (or accept) the truth:
Michael Bordenaro; ‘everybody’s so weak, so sensitive, they can’t handle the facts.’
Patera, Appalachia’s Homestead; discussing her lineage (Cherokee) and history, seeing the similarities of today, applying the lessons; some are more concerned about her hair and makeup.
Then, Uneducated Economist; ‘no amount of wishing is going to bring events back to the way it was. It’s effectively a new construct.’
Interest Rate Ruse
The 40-year bull market in bonds is over; rates are not going lower, they’re going higher (not advice, not a recommendation).
Ignoring or refusing to recognize this (highly probable) truth when analyzing markets, is a potential strategic error.
The longer the ruse goes on, the more violent the reaction may be when the masses (finally) ‘awake’.
All of which brings us to biotech, XBI, SPBIO, $SPSIBI.
Biotech Truth
Truth about biotech is brutal; described here, here and here.
Exactly how this will all hit the mainstream in force, is unknown. However, let’s not forget, ‘when price action goes south, bad news comes out’.
Biotech XBI, Daily
Heading south at this point, is biotech XBI.
Market test of the Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) appears complete; previously discussed here, here and here.
As of 1:40 p.m., EST, XBI is trading back into congestion (92 – 96) and looks to have formed a trading channel.
Left channel contact line shown as No. 1, is supported by this post, potential long-term reversal.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 