There are four more trading days left to compete the bar on the 8-Day, chart of Nvidia, below.
What are the chances it continues on higher into resistance?
If it does, it’s the 50% retrace of the entire move from highs on January 7th, to the lows of March 11th.
Then, The Fed
We have a Fed meeting this coming week, 18th and 19th.
Could any announcement be used as an ‘excuse’ to propel the market higher … straight into resistance?
Nvidia Fibonacci 8-Day
Who uses an 8-Day chart?
Not anybody I know 🙂
If Nvidia continues to rally, one would expect the SOXX, to move higher as well … potentially creating yet another short opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).
Lastly, Ed Dowd
Here’s a link to a recent interview. At time stamp 37:48, he spills the beans on The Fed.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Looking at United Airlines (UAL), with the precise set-up, four-year wedge, measured move, the top, timed exactly at an earnings release, you have to ask yourself …
Was it all part of a (secret) plan?
Wyckoff Writes on Manipulation
Way back in 1910, Wyckoff wrote the following concerning manipulation (emphasis added, quote used with permission).
“Manipulators are giant traders, wearing seven-leagued boots. The trained ear can detect the steady ‘clump clump’ as they progress, and the footprints are recognized in the fluctuations and quantities of stock appearing on the tape.”
United Airlines UAL, Weekly
When looking at the chart, it all makes sense … it just took over four years to play out.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The last update on Carvana, link here, identified the potential for downside reversal.
That’s what we got 🙂
Now, as we’ll see in the chart below, CVNA is right at the trendline.
Carvana CVNA, Daily
We’re at the trend, but there’s a slight possibility price action will rebound (off the trendline) to the area noted (not advice, not a recommendation).
Let’s add this insight from Greg Hunter and Ed Dowd, concerning the economy, link here.
After watching the interview, judge for yourself whether or not we have recovery higher first, or we head lower, first.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The real kicker though, is Dowd’s statement at time stamp 34:30 in the link; when the market finally does turn to the downside, ‘It will be quick’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
While the financial press (pictured at left) is fumbling around, trying to figure out if the market’s up or down, for this site it’s not about ‘up’ or ‘down’, but what the market itself is telling us.
Case in point, this past week.
Remember, at the beginning of the week, major brokers blew-up and locked up.
You couldn’t log-on whether long or short.
Surprising Speed
Posts on this site gave numerous clues (prior to last Monday), that we’re at risk of a downturn.
Two examples of potential downside were August 1st, Carvana’s ‘Interesting’ Numbers, posted here; the next day, Correction … or … Crash? posted here.
All released well before the Monday, August 5th, wipeout.
One thing to note as Ed Dowd points out (link here) is the speed of the downdraft.
Was this past Monday’s market action (and brokerage blow-ups) part of the new paradigm, the new normal?
With that, let’s take a look at what’s likely to happen (or set-up), next. The last post showed a potential short sale set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).
Finance Sector XLF, Daily
If price action continues higher, shown as the inserted back bar, the plan is to stand aside or exit, if short (not advice, not a recommendation).
Next, if we get downward action posting a new daily low, shown as the magenta bar, that’s a potential short entry (not advice, not a recommendation).
Of course, not shown is the scenario where the market does nothing and remains flat.
Based on last week’s hysteria and this additional update from Ed Dowd, link here, markets doing nothing seems to be the least likely outcome.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Before we get to the ‘independent source’, a quick review of the June 21st, update (emphasis added):
“With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).”
That was based on a wide gamut of data with none of it, ‘fundamentals’, except ‘the money’s gone’; the conclusion, NVDA, may be at a significant inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).
All of that, on this site, right here in River City. 🙂
Independant Source
Now, we have this from Ed Dowd, link here (time stamp: 5:45, 8:30, and 9:40) saying NVDA, had an ‘exhaustion top’, posting on two timeframes.
Note: Wyckoff analysis, with its century-old technique, is coming to the same conclusions as the Wall Street ‘number crunchers’ with near-infinite computing power.
Now, on to the chart.
Nvidia NVDA, Daily
The trading channel (blue lines) is potential only, not confirmed.
What we do have, is once again, NVDA being influenced by Fibonacci time-correlation(s).
Nvidia reversed on Fibonacci Week 89, from the October 14th, 2022, lows.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The past five ‘Silver Top’ updates have looked at recent action, as a potential top and downside reversal.
The ‘Part V’, update (link here), included a ‘measured move’ target.
In the markets, an infinite number of events can be true simultaneously. Dr. Elder covers this in his book, with individual traders working multiple timeframes.
All of which brings us to the chart below.
Silver SLV, Monthly
From previous updates, we’re hovering around the support resistance zone.
Now, we can see price action’s also hitting the top of a trading channel.
The question of course is, what’s the next likely outcome?
Even without considering what else is going on in other markets, a pause, sideways congestion, or downward testing seems to be the highest probability (not advice, not a recommendation).
Did The ‘Bubble’ Just Pop?
When we do take other events into account, wide swings in the SOXX on Friday, Nvidia posting a narrow range weekly bar, a potential top indicator, Ed Dowd said, when this all implodes, there’ll be margin calls aplenty.
The technical situation of the SOXX, is planned for tomorrow’s update.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If there’s one market attracting huge numbers of grifters, carpetbaggers, peddlers, and all-around crazies, it’s precious metals.
I’ve been hearing from this crowd, ‘the government’s going to collapse, the dollar’s going to collapse’, since the early 1980s.
As said many times before, I like precious metals as much as the next guy.
However, from a strategy standpoint, with each passing day, we see it’s the food supply (here, and here) that comes first (not advice, not a recommendation).
What’s currently taking place is so much more complicated (in my opinion) than just ‘stacking’.
Let’s not forget the flood of ‘fake’ or ‘diluted‘ precious metals and other chicanery; like having your coin-shop bank account closed for no apparent reason.
Well, we have to keep the loonies on the path which brings us to our case in point, Newmont Mining, NEM.
Newmont, Good News is Bad News
Gold price has moved higher over the past four to five months and expectedly, that’s been noted in Newmont’s latest Quarterly release, link here.
NEM, stock price at ‘nine-month highs’, what’s not to like?
It’s when we look at the chart, we see a different story.
Newmont Mining, NEM, Weekly
After all the ‘good news’, NEM has only retraced an anemic 23.6%, of its overall downside move.
Note the close on Friday was right at the 23.6% level, giving it even more significance.
This level has also become an ‘axis line’ as exhibited by price action going back to August of 2022.
By The Numbers
When looking through the major sectors, retrace (and reversal) from 23.6%, is becoming more frequent.
Two other indices posting and reversing from that level (measured from recent highs), are biotech XBI, and real estate, IYR.
NEM, What’s Next?
Thursday, 4/25, was a wide bar with heavy volume.
We’ve stopped at the retrace, which is also resistance, confirmed by price action in late December. ’23.
A reasonable expectation is NEM, retraces, testing the wide bar and volume before continuing to the downside or moving back higher to a breakout (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 