Category Archives: GDX

Bear Flag … Bear Market

January 28, 2021 By in Bonds, Dollar, GDX, GOLD

Bear flags post in a bear market

Bull flags post in a bull market

Right?

One would think.

It’s different though, if you’re a rabid ‘not-right-in-the-head’ gold bull.

The professional does not care which direction the market is heading. The only important thing is, and to paraphrase Livermore:

‘There’s only one side of the market to be on … and that’s the right side.’

GDX has posted and tested a bear flag.

At this juncture, it’s heading lower … possibly to test between 15 – 17, as was just mentioned yesterday, by Van Metre (time stamp 10:00).

Conversely, in the general equity markets, there’s reversal action with the S&P, Dow, Russell, all lower.

On top of that, bonds are in their own reversal (up again in the pre-market) as well as the dollar.

In the Van Metre link above, in addition to comments on gold, he also sates ‘the market is not prepared for a bond (and dollar) reversal.

When markets are sure of one thing and the other happens, it’s very ugly.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Plan

January 22, 2021 By in DRV, DUG, GDX, IYR, Real Estate, The Speck, XOP

The image below may be the best descriptor of the (economic) plan going forward. Full (forced) compliance won’t be achieved until every vestige of small-business (Mom & Pop) is destroyed.

On the bright side, at least we know what’s coming.

The near instant, within hours fracking about face, could be used as the economic model; destroy everything and do it quickly.

Self employment (S-Corp of one) may or may not be the ultimate answer. One thing it might do, is offer more time for maneuvering. That’s critical when ‘speck’ injectors show up at large firms and force everyone into line.

With that in mind, two sectors have been the focus as opportunities for short positions.

Oil & Gas, XOP and real estate, IYR.

There are others like gold with GDX down again in the pre-market … thus confirming a bearish trend.

It could wind up that shorting GDX was the best option.

However, since there’s such rabid indoctrination into the hyper-inflation theme, it could be a bumpy road to the bottom … the exact worst thing for an inverse ETF.

Those trading vehicles prefer straight down action. Otherwise, they erode (value) quickly.

Analysis of the Oil & Gas sector was covered just recently, right along with identifying a reversal. XOP is down again in the pre-market with DUG up.

The short position in DUG is being maintained (not advice, not a recommendation) with chart analysis to come over the weekend.

Real estate, IYR shows a lower open as well.

Going short this one (via DRV) has been more time consuming. As IYR heads lower after an apparent false breakout (Wyckoff up-thrust), increasing the line (position size) is the objective; not advice, not a recommendation.

Depending on today’s price action, chart analysis on IYR and DRV will be forthcoming.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

GDX Reversing, As We Speak

January 21, 2021 By in DRV, GDX, GOLD, IYR, Positions

If GDX price action continues lower, it may have completed its test forecasted three-days ago.

The gold market is a very crowded trade. At this point, one to be avoided (not advice, not a recommendation).

If GDX posts a new daily low (below 35.40), it would give extra weight, the test is complete.

At the minimum, price action has recognized the bear flag by coming back up to test and then pulling away.

That alone, should give the gold bulls some pause.

In other markets, real estate IYR, did exactly as forecast. It opened below yesterday’s close and retreated from there.

The upward test, also discussed in this morning’s update may have already happened; there’s a 38% retrace present on 30-minute or shorter time-frames.

Correspondingly, the DRV position has been increased (not advice, not a recommendation). At this point we have an absolute hard stop: Yesterday’s DRV low, @ 9.67.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Real Estate Trend Test

January 19, 2021 By in DRV, DUST, GDX, IYR

Real estate (IYR) broke its nine-month trend; now testing the underside.

The break was on exceptionally heavy volume from January 4th through the 7th, and naturally lends itself to be tested. That’s where we are now.

Adding to the reversal premise, narrow thrust action preceding it.

When thrust distance narrows, it’s time to expect a trend change.

Up-side appears limited as IYR is contacting its trend while at the same time, approaching significant resistance in the 85 – 86 area.

Unless IYR penetrates that resistance, it’s still subdividing lower, indicating reversal in progress.

We’re still positioned short (via DRV, not advice, not a recommendation) with a bit more draw-down than desired.

The first hour of trading is likely to give a signal to stay in or step aside and wait.

Separately, in other markets, looks like GDX is going to test or start to test, underside (bear flag) resistance today.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

GDX Upward Test Possible

January 18, 2021 By in GDX, GLD, GOLD, IYR 2 Comments

Last week, Senior Miners GDX, broke out of a bear flag to the downside.

There could be a little more momentum lower before reaching support in the area of 33 – 34.

After that, expect a test to the underside of the flag. This is typical market behavior.

If that happens, we’ll have familiar gold bull hysteria ‘this is it!’ All the while, GDX and gold (GLD) grinding lower.

Recall gold (and related), is a very crowded trade. Eventually, there will be a sustained bull market … probably after all have grown weary hearing the rumor of it.

Anecdotally, remembering entries from a diary during the 1932 lows (the actual source has been lost), were to the effect:

‘Everybody knew that major stocks were a once-in-a- lifetime deal, but nobody had any money‘.

That lifetime deal, or deals may come. The objective is to survive, prosper and be ready when it gets here.

With that, there’re probably much better opportunities for a directional move to the downside.

Real estate, Oil & Gas Exploration sectors come to mind.

On the real estate side, it’s unfortunate, sad, but entirely possible a significant number of those to lose their homes through foreclosure, are somehow going to be housed in now-empty, or near empty commercial (mall) areas or office buildings.

If so, that relocation process will take a significant amount of time. The value of IYR’s components (SPG, EQR, etc.) may reach some type of bottom before it’s all straightened out.

We’re already past the beginning stages of a massive life-long depression.

Getting focused on it, is difficult but best if one is to come out the other side intact; or better yet, well positioned to re-build.

Next scheduled analysis: Real Estate, IYR

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Crowded Trades

December 29, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, GDX, IBB, LABD, Positions

Gold miner (GDX) bulls and bears have been fighting in a crowded trade since late November.

This morning’s GDX retrace up (and now down) from yesterday is a case in point. 

In such a choppy environment, inverse funds lose market value (downside bias) quickly and trades need to be avoided.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the market, biotech (IBB) has formed a top, reversed, and posted a new weekly low today.

An hourly trend-line has been formed as well (not shown). 

If it holds as (or if) IBB declines past current support (~152 area), that hourly trend is moving lower at just over -96%, annualized.

Maintaining negative trend, with declining momentum on both daily and weekly timeframes is what we’re looking for.

The objective (not advice, not a recommendation) is to move stops (shown below) and maintain the trade until stopped out or trend break.

As of this post (1:03 p.m. EST), the current price of LABD and BIS are listed in the ‘Close’ column. 

The “R-G/L” is from Dr. Van Tharp’s concept of Risk Gain/Loss.

Example:  If $1,000 of capital was “risked” (entry-to-stop) on the LABD, position, that position is now up by 6.83-R, or $6,830.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

GDX, Higher Into Resistance

December 28, 2020 By in DUST, GDX

It’s pre-market and miners GDX, to open higher into resistance.

Doing so will cause exit of position established December 23rd.

There’s nothing wrong with getting stopped out and then re-entering if conditions still warrant a trade.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Miners (GDX) Wave 3, Down

December 25, 2020 By in DUST, GDX

Senior Miner’s action, is counter-trend into resistance at ~ 36.20.

It was also, as the day prior, inside the bar from Tuesday, the 22nd.

Markets test wide, high volume areas.  It’s what they do and it’s happening now with GDX.

The other thing happening, is a possible completion of the ‘a-b-c’ counter trend action before heading lower in Wave 3.

Wave terminology is taken from “Elliott Wave” theory. 

From empirical observation, about the only time Elliott Wave is of any use, is when markets are highly emotional.

Emotional markets generate clear waves and we may be seeing that now with GDX.

As shown on the daily chart, Wave 3 projects to GDX ~ 17.35, which is a near -52% drop from current levels.

A significant upward push past the 36.20 resistance area would indicate a longer duration move to a 50% retrace.

With current GDX weakness, bonds reversing and dollar; with the ‘dumb money’ all-in, the most in history, probabilities favor downside action.

From a human interest standpoint, it’s unfortunate that so many are so ignorant about so many things.

However, the information is there to be had.  We have Steven Van Metre, Sajad, J. Bravo, this site, and many others with good analysis.

Of course, one has to pull themselves away from the propaganda and actually do some work and think … which seems to be a very foreign concept for the masses, the “retail investor.”

Soft-times are over. Hard-times ahead.

Those who have poured their heart out in attempts to wake up their relatives and friends, collectively, are tired of the process.

So, this site presses on, providing decades of experience having tens-of-thousands of hours of screen time, at no charge.

It’s not unreasonable to think, providing market truth may become illegal (or too expensive) at some point very soon.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Danger Point Short, GDX (DUST)

December 23, 2020 By in DUG, DUST, GDX, Positions

As expected, this morning’s GDX action is testing yesterday’s wide price bars (shown on hourly chart).

The daily chart of inverse fund DUST is below:

The last report was posted a few hours before close. Afterward, GDX pushed slightly lower towards the bottom range of support.

That push lower in turn, lowered the retrace targets accordingly.

This morning’s upward GDX spike was a gift (as of 10:51 a.m EST) and a signal to go short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s important to note that all of this action is taking place during Christmas week; no one is looking.

The firm went short GDX at DUST:  20.09, early in the session.  Hard stop for DUST @ 19.69; not advice, not a recommendation.

Price action pushed slightly lower (to DUST 19.91, so far), before reversing.

This is the danger point. If the hyper-inflationists are right, it won’t take much of a move in GDX, to find out.

If we are in a deflation scenario, expectations are for today’s test levels to hold and for GDX to continue lower (DUST higher).

Separately, XOP is testing and filling the gap left from Monday’s open. 

If XOP reverses from here, the DUG stop could be moved up to today’s low (thus far) at DUG:  27.75.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Hyperinflation Gone Wrong

December 22, 2020 By in DUG, GDX, Positions, The Speck 1 Comment

There’s something very wrong with the “hyperinflation” narrative.

The gold miners GDX can’t even get to a full 38% retrace level without collapsing.

Price action has negated the targets from the prior update. 

It should be clear at this point, a monstrous 5,600 page, so-called stimulus package is not inflationary.

For an irreverent look at what’s in that bill, reference “Salty Cracker”.

By the way, just how long does it take to write 5,600 pages?  A couple of years, maybe?

Probably as much time as it took to write the original CARES Act … which was submitted (put in committee) to Congress during January 2019 … a full nine months before anyone even heard of the “speck” in Wuhan.

The inference is, both of these bills were planned long ago and have been in the works for years.

Which brings us to gold and the miners.

The hourly chart of GDX shows two wide bars in today’s session. The 35.00 – 35.50, area is support that may stop the down move for now.

Wide price bars usually get tested.  Today’s action (as of 1:34 p.m. EST) shows GDX is moving quickly.

Expectation now, is for GDX price action to test the wide bars.  That could take hours or days … or not at all.

If there is a test, the most likely stopping point is yesterday’s low at GDX, 36.18

In other markets, the short position in XOP (via DUG) is being maintained.  Stop has been moved to DUG, 26.63; not advice, not a recommendation.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.