Category Archives: GDXJ

Gold Miners … Trap Set?

March 13, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IWM, Life Insurance, MET, NVDA, SOXX, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, XBI 4 Comments

Is The Fear Exhausted?

It’s a confusing time.

Semiconductors with chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, seem to be reversing. Other sectors like biotech and mid-caps were never part of the mania.

Add to that, biotech and life insurance may be correlated (more on that, in another update).

As the market looks to pivot lower, bonds are also pivoting lower or at least under pressure.

In response, one can say there’s been sort of a panic into the mining sector GDX, GDXJ; like it’s somehow more safe there.

Let’s see if the miners really are the safe-space.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

As the chart shows (as of 12:35 p.m., EST), we’re pushing into known resistance (blue line) at the 37.00, area.

There’s also a Fibonacci time frame. Today is ‘Day 55’, from the December 22nd high.

Not only are we at Day 55 from the 12/22/23 high, but we’re also at Day 21, from the February 13th, lows.

Essentially, GDXJ is about to post a Wyckoff up-thrust condition, the area for potential downside reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Up … Production Down

March 9, 2024 By in BA, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, NEM

New Highs As Supply Contracts

Is it as simple as being stuck between supply and demand?

If so, does that mean gold’s new highs have nothing (or very little) to do with inflation?

Over a year ago, was this post, proposing the following insight for gold (GLD):

“Maybe it’s because of scarcity (along with nearly everything else) that’s causing the increase in price.”

We can see from this link, world-wide production dropped in 2020, and has remained lower.

That is at least, an alternate reason for the increase in price.

Then, Newmont, NEM

Let’s not forget, in the above post was Newmont Mining, forming a ‘terminating wedge’, ready to break lower.

On Friday, January 20, 2023, one day before the update, NEM closed at 53.34.

The following week, three trading days later, NEM posted a high of 55.41, and rolled over; currently down a stiff 35.4%, at 33.91.

Miners In Decline, Why?

Gold’s at new highs, while miners GDX, GDXJ, are in a multi-year decline. Why?

Let’s answer the question with a question.

Why is Boeing (BA) and the airlines in decline? Why has there been one aviation incident after another like here, here and here?

Why are we having investigations like this and this?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont Mining … Still In Trouble

March 5, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NEM, Richie Naso, Wyckoff

Breakout Into Reversal?

Like a movie script, price action will play with your emotions.

As Richie Naso says, that’s what the market’s designed to do.

The miners GDX, GDXJ, launched higher over the past four trading days, giving the impression that, ‘this could be it, the big move’; however, the truth, the price action itself, tells a different story.

Let’s look at one of the big caps in the sector, Newmont.

Newmont Mining NEM, Daily

Newmont has pushed past known resistance (magenta line) straight into the 38.2% retrace area.

When this type of breakout occurs, it’s called Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ position; that is, a potential false breakout.

When we have the largest bubble conditions in market history, there may be no safe place to hide … that could include the miners as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont Breaks Lower

February 22, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, NEM, NVDA

But, What About ‘Inflation’ ?

With today’s earnings release, Newmont’s chance at an upside breakout has failed.

Include an earnings miss, dividend cut, and we have probabilities weighted for continued downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Reading the press releases, one gets the impression, Newmont’s battening down the hatches, preparing for a collapse.

If gold is supposed to launch higher, why all the divestiture, raising cash, paying down debt?

Miners Bear Market

The last update on the miners, link here, had the Juniors testing their trading channel.

Since then, price action drifted higher for one additional day, then reversed to the downside.

That’s where we are now.

To be fair, GDXJ price action has just filled a gap (as of 11:45 a.m., EST). From here, there could be some kind of upside attempt.

However, probabilities are low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Markets Go Berserk

While all eyes are on Nvidia’s (NVDA) last gasp of a delusional mania, the mining sector continues lower.

It’s quietly telling us there’s something wrong with the ‘inflation’ narrative (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

D.R. Horton ‘Rolls Over’

February 17, 2024 By in DHI, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Interest Rates, NVDA, QQQ, Real Estate, SLV, SOXX, SPY, TLT, ZeroHedge

When Real Estate Goes …

It’s been said, ‘when real estate goes, everything goes’.

Like a slow-motion train wreck, since late January, this site’s been watching the (potential) topping activity of D.R. Horton, DHI.

Now, DHI is reversing; coincident with the housing starts collapse, link here.

D.R. Horton, DHI Weekly Close

We’re right at the top of the ‘terminating wedge’.

Downside penetration and test will provide confirmation of the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The major market indices appear to be topping out as well.

The SOXX, may have reversed. Trading was ‘outside-down’ during yesterday’s session.

The SPY, and QQQ, also posted outside-down.

The potential Nvidia, NVDA reversal (link here) shows that so far, that high has not been exceeded.

Rates Up, Not Down

Adding gasoline to the fire, part of this site’s strategy is rates are going higher, not lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

So far, we see that’s true with long bonds (TLT) reversing to the downside, yet again.

And Then … Gold

Let’s not leave out the latest bullish report on gold (and silver), link here.

Notice the bias … that silver’s cheap relative to gold.

How about the massive, multi-year, ‘non-confirmation‘ between gold and the other monetary metals.

If it was real 1980s style inflation, everything would be moving up in tandem … which it is not; something else is going on.

Is the mining sector, GDX, GDXJ, anticipating a price decline in gold?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Test The ‘Implosion’

February 15, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST 1 Comment

Coming Back To Resistance

Less than seven trading hours after this update, the miners (GDXJ) imploded:

Price action collapsed -6.41%, in a single day.

Now, it’s early in the session (10:57 a.m., EST) and the Juniors have come back up to test that breakdown.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

Along with the upside test, we have a trading channel that’s clearly defined.

Even as this post is being created, price action is pulling back from the test, adding confirmation to the channel.

Typical short trading vehicles for the miners are DUST and JDST for Seniors and Juniors respectively (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Break Down … Again

February 10, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST 2 Comments

A Strategic Bear Market

The gold/silver miners are breaking down, yet again.

The last update on GDXJ, link here, said to watch for a potential (bear market) reversal and upward correction.

We got the reversal, but it was weak, barely making it past a 23.6%, retrace before heading lower again.

Now, we’re in a ‘spot of bother’ as the Brits would say. 

The Juniors are at the edge of a multi-year wedge formation, ready to break lower.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

The chart is long-term, locating strategic updates on GDXJ.

Note: Update No. 4, is this one 🙂

No. 1: ’What’s Wrong’, link here. No. 2: ’Timeline’s End’, link here. No. 3: ’Failed Breakout’, link here.

What’s Next?

At this juncture, the wedge boundary, anything can happen. 

Typical vehicles for shorting the indices, GDX, GDXJ, are DUST, and JDST, respectively (not advice, not a recommendation).

If GDXJ, heads lower from here, we’ll discuss trendlines and a measured move in the next update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Rates Rising … Miners Critical

January 25, 2024 By in DHI, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Interest Rates, JDST, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Then, The Real Estate Bubble

The elephant in the room:

Rates are not going lower, they’re going higher; sooner rather than later (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday, ZeroHedge reported the 5-yr auction was nasty with rates rising to near recent highs.

Today, we have yet another supply disruption impacting so-called ‘inflation’.

Couple that with an apparent real estate implosion.

DH Horton (DHI) down nearly – 12% in just days and holding steady in the pre-market session.

It looks like the bubble party is (finally) over.

Gold Miners To Catch Bid?

The miners are at another critical juncture.

The Juniors GDXJ, are up in the pre-market session (8:00 a.m., EST) and may be catching a flight-to-safety bid as parts of the markets top out and/or reverse.

That flight to safety may not last long as we’ll see below.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

Trading is up about 1% or 0.32 pts in the pre-market.

GDXJ, price action is at The Danger Point®. 

We are either in a reversal (Wyckoff spring) set-up or just a pause before posting lower.

If it’s a rally, the target area is shown (magenta oval); corresponding to a 61.8% retrace.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Miner Failures

January 20, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, JDST, ZeroHedge

One Failed Move, After Another

If it’s not working, get out or change sides.

For Junior Miners GDXJ, it’s the bullish case that’s not working.

But wait! What about ‘inflation’?

Here’s just one example of where the so-called ‘inflation’ is coming from: supply disruption and destruction.

Junior Gold Miners GDXJ, Weekly

As this post said, few things get more attention on The Street, than a failed move.

The chart shows at least three potential bullish set-ups that have failed.

Fail, fail, fail; what do we think GDXJ, will do at Monday’s open. Are we going higher?

Well, anything can happen; there’s a gap on the daily chart that could be filled. 

However, posting lower levels might be just getting started (not advice, not a recommendation).

Depending on Monday’s action we may have confirmation of a downside trend and channel.

More on that at the next update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Interest Rate Snare

January 11, 2024 By in DUST, Ed Dowd, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, JDST, SLV, Wyckoff

Manipulated Into The Trap

‘They [The Fed] are totally tricking the markets’ (time stamp 3:30), link here.

Yes, it’s a real chess game going on and the other side, makes up the rules.

This update presents that despite all the manipulation and head-fakes, significant market pivots in the miners were identified (correctly) with Wyckoff analysis.

That analysis, in turn, helped develop a long-term strategy (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

Three key points are shown on the chart. 

The first goes all the way back to October of 2020, link here. There’s something wrong with the miners.

Potential for another downward pivot, link here, was identified to-the-week, if not, to-the-day.

The subsequent move printed the most impulsive price action since the spike melt-down of early 2020.

Which brings us to today.

Another potential pivot has been identified, link here.

As of this post (11:20 a.m., EST) the Juniors GDXJ, continue to rachet lower.

The Long Term

As Ed Dowd points out in this interview, what’s happening now will affect us all for decades, if not centuries to come.

Therefore, it’s a good idea to have a long-term strategy.

From the above chart, it’s clear that Wyckoff analysis has been on the correct side of GDXJ price action; the bearish side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.