Category Archives: GLD

The Market Set-Up … This Week

October 30, 2022 By in Bonds, David Weis, GLD, GOLD, IYR, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TLT, TSLA, Wyckoff 3 Comments

What To Watch … Bonds, Gold, Real Estate, Tesla

Bonds:

Last Friday, the bond reversal posted a shallow retrace.

We’re looking for upside follow-through at the next session.

Gold:

If gold (GLD) closes below 154.67, on Monday, it will be seven consecutive down months.

Momentum has slowed to a potential inflection point.

Real Estate:

If bonds move higher, real estate may follow. We have potential targets and Fibonacci timeframes.

Tesla:

This update, said to watch if/when TLSA, broke below support.

It did just that during the following week but now, it’s hesitating.

As a result, we have a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

Now, on to the charts.

Long Bond TLT, 30-minute

We’re drilling down to the 30-minute.

The blue line is Fibonacci 23.6%. Price action (at this point) shows the beginning of a move higher from that level.

Moving decisively higher at the next session, puts the terminating wedge into play, shown here.

If we get a wedge breakout, then we have a measured move target in the vicinity of TLT, 115.00.

Gold (GLD) Weekly Chart

A close below 154.67, on Monday, would put GLD, at seven consecutive down months.

GLD, has never closed lower seven consecutive months; not since inception, on 11/18/04.

Gold remains in a down-channel that’s a Fibonacci 13-Weeks wide.

Last week’s move helped to re-confirm the channel.

That action is itself, a Fibonacci 34-Weeks from the ‘changing of hands‘ high, during week-ending, 3/11/22.

However, momentum of price action has slowed.

If there’s going to be a break to the upside, this would be the place; otherwise, watch for continued GLD downside.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

If bonds continue their upside reversal with rates lower, we can expect real estate IYR, to have some type of ‘dead cat’ bounce.

If so, how long and how high.

An infinite number of scenarios are possible. However, the chart of IYR, shows what to expect for two of those possibilities.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

The uptrend (blue line) has been decisively broken. What has not yet happened, is a ‘test’ of that break.

Shown are potential tests; Week 8 (from 10/14/22, lows), at Fibonacci 38%, and Week 13, at 50%.

Between ‘Week 8’ and ‘Week 13’, is the December Fed meeting … a possible catalyst.

Tesla (TSLA) Weekly

This one seems a bit far-fetched but here it is, anyway.

If bonds rally, the rest of the market may also rally; that could include our chief cook and bottle washer, Tesla.

Price action bounced at support and penetrated it several times before printing outside-up on the weekly (twice).

By definition, it’s a Wyckoff spring set-up.

A spring tends to go straight into an up-thrust; a repeating pattern, shown on the chart at around TSLA, 315.

Set-ups can also fail … so, we’ll be watching this one closely.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Capitulation ‘Model’

October 26, 2022 By in Bonds, GLD, Gold & Silver, Positions, Real Estate, TLT, TMF, TMF-22-01, Van Metre 1 Comment

Using The Gold Market Example

First up is the (downside reversal) analysis of the real estate market.

It was wrong; at least for now.

There’s nothing wrong with being wrong … it’s being wrong and staying wrong, that’s the problem.

What appears to be correct so far, is the upside reversal in the bond market.

We’re going to look at another capitulation to get some idea of what to expect if indeed bonds have reversed.

This past April, the gold market (GLD) capitulated on the upside. At the time, it was quickly and correctly identified as a ‘changing of hands’.

Gold (GLD) Capitulation

From a strategic standpoint, gold has not looked back.

Down around 20% (although slightly higher in today’s pre-market), there seems to be no major catalyst to get a similar capitulation reversal.

Using that reversal model and looking at bonds, we’ll use the 3X Leveraged Fund TMF, as the example.

Leveraged funds accentuate market moves, sometimes giving a clearer picture.

Bonds (TLT) 3X Leveraged Bull Fund, TMF

As far as what might be behind a (sustainable) bond reversal, we have this report from Steven Van Metre.

Using The ‘Model’

Note in the GLD reversal, prices went lower for a while and then came back to ‘test’.

Using that, we can expect TLT, TMF, price action to rise for some (unknown) period of time; then come back to ‘test’, before continuing higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Early Session Update

October 24, 2022 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-22-05, GLD, Positions, Real Estate, TLT, TMF 1 Comment

What’s Working … What’s Not

It’s early in the session at about 10:52 a.m., EST; the market itself is telling us where to look.

Gold (GLD) is heading lower as expected.

Bonds (TLT) did not island gap higher but are resuming their downtrend … very dangerous indeed.

Real estate opened gap higher (not expected) but then quickly reversed and is now trading lower.

This update will focus on real estate. That trade is still active (DRV-22-05), as explained below.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

The briefest explanation for today’s action, is that we’re in a test of the up-thrust posted by IYR on October 18th.

Tests can pass or fail.

The close of today will be important along with tomorrow’s action as well.

Even if today closes lower, the test can still fail at the next session (or later) if today’s high is exceeded.

With that said, IYR is now at The Danger Point®

The DRV-22-05, trade remains active.

However, if IYR looks as if it’s going to post a higher close, a failure of the up-thrust may be in the works.

Subsequent position action is at the discretion of the trader (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post, IYR is pressuring lower, currently trading down – 0.21-pts.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

October 23, 2022 By in Bonds, Catherine Austin Fitts, DRV, DRV-22-05, GLD, Gold & Silver, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, Scott Walters, SLV, The Speck, TLT, TMF, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

What To Watch … Gold, Bonds, & Real Estate

First off, ‘Goldman‘ says melt-up.

Not to be outdone, we have this ‘me too’ melt-up article as well.

Let’s not forget, all the ‘Fed must do something’ rumors and feigned concern by its members.

If anyone really wants to know the big picture, the overall plan (a wide majority do not), this interview may be the best explanation to-date.

With all of that, we certainly could get some kind of rally in the coming week. We’ll let the price action speak for itself.

As a reminder, Wyckoff analysis does not concern itself with press releases, rumors or ‘fundamentals’; Wyckoff himself, determined based on price action alone, they have no material effect on market movement.

In his words, ‘other forces are at work’, and it’s those forces that interest us.

Gold & Silver

As said in this update, gold (GLD) was just ‘ticks’ away from posting a new monthly low. In fact, it got just 0.24-pts, from a new low before rebounding.

Of course, each time we get any kind of rally in the metals, there’s the usual hysteria. Even though for the past seven months and counting, those rallies occur at lower and lower levels … i.e., a bear market.

Shown below, it’s in a trading channel with price action at the right-side channel line.

Gold (GLD) Weekly

The chart below gets closer-in.

From left-most contact point on the channel to the initial contact on the right side is a Fibonacci 13-weeks.

Also note, the weekly high posted at the center line is a Fibonacci 5-weeks from the left-most contact.

Highly emotional markets tend to adhere to Fibonacci until either the emotion wears off or ‘everybody’ recognizes the structure.

Obviously, to keep the channel intact, a lower open (and lower action) at the next session is needed.

Silver (SLV) has already been discussed in this update and this one.

Bond (TLT) Capitulation ?

Was this past Friday the day?

Gap-down trading on huge volume.

Looking at the daily chart of TLT below, Friday’s level of (down) volume has occurred only three times in the past three years.

Each time, there was a near immediate rebound or in the case of March 2021, the rebound came several weeks later.

Bonds (TLT) Daily

Moving in closer, we see the possibility of an ‘island-gap’ at the next open.

What could drive capital into the bond market?

Well, how about a ‘shock’ or continued market melt-down (not advice, not a recommendation).

A quick check of the local newsfeed (as of 12:45 p.m., EST) shows nothing on the horizon other than usual nuclear attack threats, power outages, child mutilation protests, marauding bears and the disarmament of Canadians.

Nothing to see here …

Real Estate

There is no mistake, events in real estate are happening at the fastest pace in recorded history.

As Scott Walters put it, over 10-million people bought into the ‘work from home’ hype and got themselves instantly (nearly) upside down in their transaction.

Now, the layoffs start.

Real Estate IYR, 3-Day Close

Zoom-in, on the channel

As the last update said, we’ll know soon enough if there is more upside or if last Friday was it, and the downdraft continues.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … The Big Picture

October 20, 2022 By in GLD, Gold & Silver 1 Comment

Weak Reversal @ 23.6%

Gold’s hanging on … just ticks away from posting a new monthly low.

It hasn’t looked good for the bulls ever since the ‘changing of hands’, discussed over seven months ago, linked here.

From that update, we have a useful quote concerning the massive GLD, volume spike, posted on March 8th:

“Such volume spikes typically indicate the potential for a long-term, sustained reversal.”

How long, is long term?

Well, it’s been seven months and counting …

The weekly chart of GLD below, shows retrace, test and reversal, at a very weak Fibonacci 23.6%.

Since the GLD, high on August 6th, 2020, it’s been over two-years of sideways-to-down.

Gold (GLD), Weekly

The blue line is the 23.6%, retrace level.

Price action has oscillated around this area which in itself, provides confirmation of validity.

The chart below has a zoom of the retrace area.

Since the ‘changing of hands’, the analysis stance on gold (and silver) has not changed; we’re trending lower until price action indicates downside capitulation … at this point, nowhere in sight.

Summary

With GLD reversing at the axis line (23.6%, level), we can now use this area via the Fibonacci Tool, to project downside targets.

Target analysis is slated for the next GLD, update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

No ‘Soft Landing’ or ‘Hard Landing’

September 23, 2022 By in GLD, GOLD, Scott Walters, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

There’s Only, ‘Collapse’

The ‘narratives’ are false.

There’s no ‘recovery’, no ‘soft landing’, no ‘hard landing’.

There’s no ‘housing boom’, no ‘inflation’, and maybe most of all, no (sustainable) ‘Electrical Vehicle’ market.

What there is …. is ‘collapse’.

Collapsing food supply, collapsing economy, collapsing real estate, collapsing employment and collapsing (electrical grid) infrastructure.

How do we know that?

The price action (the market) itself, says so.

Wyckoff, The Rest, and Gold

As stated in the last update, unlike other analysis methods, Wyckoff looks at what the market is saying about itself.

The market itself, defines the next likely course of action.

Two days ago, gold was used as the example.

Contrary to the ZeroHedge report linked in the prior update, Wyckoff analysis revealed the most probable direction for gold, was down.

The Gold (GLD) Market

The Fed announcement late Wednesday, resulted in a ‘blip’ higher for gold that stalled-out, the next day.

However, that announcement, may have confirmed a trend change in GLD.

Looking at the chart below, it’s possible that Wednesday identified a more aggressive trendline, lower.

Gold (GLD), Daily

It’s about an hour after the open.

This is how it looks for GLD.

The new trendline and trading channel are clear; trending lower at approximately -60%, annualized.

The next chart is a zoom of the pivot area.

If there ever was going to be a Fed ‘Pivot’, this was it. 🙂

The price increases being touted as ‘inflation’ are clearly the result of supply destruction.

You can’t have 90+ ‘food processing plant fires’ in the past year or so and not have it affect prices at the supermarket.

Same goes for crop failures or lack of harvest world-wide.

Summary

As always, anything can happen. Gold could reverse and mount some kind of rally.

If somehow, there’s a change of demand, it will show up on the tape (the chart) as a change of character.

So far, there is none.

Most likely direction remains to lower levels.

Parting Shot

Just to illustrate the point of ‘collapse’, we’ll leave off with this recent report from Scott Walters.

The real estate example shown is the River Oaks area of Houston … Highly affluent.

There’s no debate.

It’s a collapse, when a house has to drop $20 million, from $26.5-mil to $6.5-mil, and Still Not Sell!

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Tipping Point’ For Gold ?

September 21, 2022 By in GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, SLV, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

“Sentiment Is Negative” … So What?

No sooner had the bearish report on silver been released, than we have a bullish report on gold at ZeroHedge; linked here.

We’re going to address the bullish view briefly but succinctly, with the weekly chart of gold (GLD) below … but first.

When ‘Sentiment’ Works

One little trading nugget that took about 25-years to find out (your mileage may vary), was that in a sustained up or downtrend, sentiment is largely, irrelevant.

In the ZeroHedge report linked above, the ‘little guy’ (i.e. sentiment) is bearish or negative. We all know the little guy is nearly always wrong.

Not to worry.

If gold and silver move decidedly lower from here, our ‘little guy’ will think he’s a genius.

He’ll begin (or continue) to post all kinds of philosophical memes on twitter and Facebook; then set himself up for the big whammy farther down the road. 🙂

The pros will get their money no doubt; they’re patient.

Now, on to the weekly chart for gold (GLD).

Gold (GLD), Weekly Close

We’ve already discussed how penetrating support will put gold (GLD) in Wyckoff spring position.

It’s clear we are there now.

As it says in the chart, support penetration was preceded by a very weak bounce.

The difference between Wyckoff analysis and others is that Wyckoff focuses on what the market’s saying about itself.

At this juncture, price action to the upside (the bounce) is weak; suggesting that momentum remains to lower levels.

The following chart is a zoom of that bounce area.

Summary

This update’s several hours before the 2:00 p.m., EST, Fed announcement … likely to be a non-event, anyway.

Nonetheless, if there’s a significant change in price action, we’ll review it at that time.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading A Silver Collapse: Part 2

September 20, 2022 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, SLV 2 Comments

No One Expects The Bulls To Fail

How can the bulls fail with all the ‘money printing’ and rampant fiscal irresponsibility?

It’s a sure thing … a slam dunk.

That is, until it’s not.

The day for silver and gold to start a sustained rally, was yesterday.

Yesterday, both GLD and SLV closed slightly higher and left the window open for a follow-on move upward.

It didn’t happen.

However, neither index has posted a new weekly low; that leaves an ever so miniscule chance, price action could mount a rally.

At this juncture, it’s still possible we’re in a move up to the SLV 19.50-area; that appears to be low probability based on the monthly chart of SLV, below.

Trading Vehicles

Other than owning the physical metal (discussed in the last post), the most common trading vehicles are Futures, ETFs and Leveraged ETFs.

Of those vehicles, futures contracts and especially the micro-contracts, are illiquid.

The futures market for silver is thin; that makes getting impaled by a low-liquidity spike a very real possibility.

For the purposes of trading an extended or sharp decline, the vehicles of choice (for my accounts) will be leveraged ETFs (AGQ, ZSL) and the physical.

Follow The Money

Depending on how you look at the monthly chart of SLV, price action’s either following a down-trend for the past seven months or has been in a trading channel for the past 17-months.

Zoom Chart

Summary & Strategy

It’s generally agreed, having some amount of precious metals is a good idea.

What’s being presented here and potentially on a go-forward basis, is strategy to position for windfall profits (or to acquire physical) during a mass-psychosis event; where it looks like (albeit temporally) precious metals and specifically silver may be of no value.

We’ve already seen over the past two years, how a wide swath of the public can be easily manipulated. Why not manipulate them to think they need (or will be forced) to dump precious metals?

Next Update

We’ll discuss how precious metals could be heading for a sustained or sharp decline, Fed announcement notwithstanding.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Cue The Hype

September 17, 2022 By in GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Green Energy, SLV, Texas Freeze, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

What If Europe Abandons ‘Green Energy?’

The ‘Texas Freeze‘ laid bare the farce that is ‘renewable’ energy.

Will this coming winter do the same for Europe?

Like a limpet on an ocean liner, the ‘silver squeeze’ idea won’t go away.

Here we have yet another report; linked here.

The data in the report’s not in dispute. If that data is to be believed (no reason not to), silver stockpiles are shrinking.

Even so, the major trend-change (down) in silver was identified way back in February of 2021; reports are linked here and here.

The second report stated silver had ‘changed hands’ from strong to weak.

It’s been nearly 20 months since then; silver remains below that February 1st, 2021, level and is down -35.7%, as of Friday’s close.

I like silver as much as the next guy but what we’re discussing here, is strategy.

Silver To Single Digits?

Is that even possible?

Well, was oil going negative possible?

Not until it happened.

The monthly chart of SLV below, has a standard Fibonacci projection shown. Note how at 23.6%, the projection shows price action tapped and reversed down.

Next up is 38.2% at around 13.75, and then 50%, below the 10-area.

Silver SLV, Monthly Chart

Zoom version

And then, a trading channel.

Both silver and gold, are at The Danger Point.

Gold has pushed below support and is currently in Wyckoff spring position.

Silver is below the 20-area, which is established support.

If a rally is in the cards, this is the place to start.

A failure to move decisively higher at this point signals the potential for much lower prices ahead.

Summary

The next update will discuss various tactics that could be used if/when there’s a major downdraft.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Penetrates Support

September 16, 2022 By in GLD, GOLD, Wyckoff

The ‘Inflation’ Narrative Is False

How do we know the ‘narrative’ is false?

Because the price action tells us at this juncture, we’re in some kind of ‘deflation’ impulse.

Taking it a step further, what happens if we don’t get the much assumed ‘hyperinflation’.

What if something else is afoot?

Remember, a Black Swan can also be an upcoming event that’s widely accepted as fact but does not happen.

Now, to the ‘inflation’ indicator itself: Gold

Gold (GLD) Weekly Close

The downside penetration is clear.

GLD, is at The Danger Point.

If we really do have inflation and gold’s going to launch much higher, the last report stated, penetrating support and setting up a Wyckoff ‘spring’ condition would be a good place to start.

So, here we are.

As this post is being created, GLD is rebounding higher by about +0.50%.

This is normal market behavior.

However, the next chart says gold’s likely to have a hard time moving decisively higher.

On a weekly close basis, gold’s in a confirmed downward channel.

It’s going to take a lot of demand to break out of that trend.

Summary

So, far, the attitude of the ‘average investor’ to gold’s decline is “Good, I’ll just buy more.”

Six months or a year from now, when food supplies have run out or become so expensive, only ‘zee bugs’ will be reasonably priced, one has to wonder if we’ll all have the same attitude.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279