As counter-intuitive as it sounds, for there to be a significant downside reversal in gold (GLD), the vast majority if not nearly all traders, speculators, and investors need to be on the wrong side of the trade.
Getting that crowd positioned without them realizing it, or being plain hypnotized like our asylum escapees, the gold bulls, helps get articles like this accepted by the masses.
The daily chart of gold proxy GLD, shows the potential target area for reversal.
This area has been a reversal target for months … since mid-September.
Working the markets in this way, that is, identifying a potential future condition for trend change, allows one to think about how it’s all going to go down.
Of course, consistent, incessant, propaganda along with bullish (asylum) hysteria is a must. 🙂
Just to be fair, sometimes and on a rare occasion, the crowd is right.
With that in mind, we’ll have to see how GLD price action behaves if/when it breaks through resistance.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The currently held belief is dollar collapse and gold to $3,000/oz.
Dollar (UUP) Analysis:
The daily chart of UUP may be painting a different scenario:
The dollar’s already in an up-trend. It just established support at the 23.6%, Fibonacci level. There was a bounce higher and then yesterday, penetration below support.
Now, in the pre-market, UUP is currently trading at 25.14 – 25.16, which is at or even above the support level.
A dollar reversal higher at this point, being a very shallow 23.6% retrace thus far, would potentially spell big trouble for gold and the miners.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As is typical for this site, we’ll let the bulls duke it out with the bears. We’ll wait and see if we’re at a reversal point (trend-line) or if we’re headed to up-thrust condition.
If GLD breaks the trend-line, getting back to the 170 – 171, level (up-thrust), imagine the hysteria. 🙂
Lastly, Biotech (LABD):
First: Did we exit LABD?
Answer is No (not advice, not a recommendation)
Second: Why?
The price action thrusts below support that have been reported in prior posts were indeed spring set-ups.
However, it’s obvious now, they were not THE set-up.
The chart shows LABD has met an ‘a-b-c’ measured move target.
The idealized form of an ‘a-b-c’ corrective move, is shown with the blue lines and notations:
At this juncture, wave ‘a’ net distance traveled, is equal to ‘c’ and wave ‘b’ net distance, is about 50% the length of wave ‘a’.
These measurements are typical for ‘a-b-c’.
Positioning:
My firm’s main position is still showing a good profit and we’re going to maintain short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
However, as with GDX being at the danger point before its rally, so too is biotech at the danger point (prior to a potential decline).
Expectations are for LABD to retrace higher from current levels.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
How many of our YouTube ‘stackers’ are chess players?
A quick check of three popular (randomly picked) ‘stacking’ YouTubers, has one showing his intro with a pile of silver being stacked under the floor.
The other has ‘trinkets’ on her desk and supposed collectibles behind her.
The other has gone as far to say, the reason gold and silver are not going higher, is because of the public itself.
No overt reference to chess or any reference to chess play as a means of addressing market conditions.
They may indeed have knowledge but they’re not showing it as a matter of course.
If memory serves, one of Richard Denis’ interview questions to his potential ‘Turtle’ trader(s) was whether he (she) played chess.
Take look at the host site’s business logo (Three Ten Trading, LLC) and we’ll leave the discussion there.
It’s the author’s opinion, the ‘stacker’ sites are in the business of getting more business; not analyzing the markets with any high level of thought or seriousness.
However, they might have a purpose.
It’s possible, they fulfill the ‘bread and circuses’ void that’s the hallmark of an empire’s collapse; which brings us to the situation at hand.
This ‘collapse’ we’re in, is a process not an event.
As we continue on, it’s becoming clear that single-mindedly stockpiling inedible metal in hopes of surviving what’s here now, and what’s coming, is a major (if not potentially fatal) blunder.
The players on this global chess board are making their moves and then counter moves.
Case in point is Southwest Airlines cancellations and shutdown.
Southwest Airlines:
The company has made its move.
The employees countered with their move. Perhaps even more importantly, they did it with bravery.
It’s likely, a large part of them, if not all (who are not showing up for work) will eventually be terminated.
It’s also reasonable to think when they made their move, they understood full well, the potential (termination) outcome.
Economic Shutdown:
As ZeroHedge reports, what if more corporations experience similar (employee walk-out) events?
What if it’s a mass exodus?
Is anybody really ready to walk or ride their bike … even a horse, to work because there’s no fuel at the gas station?
If there’s no fuel, there are no deliveries of any kind.
A check of the Home Depot, in this area has it relatively stocked in the garden section.
However, from a personal standpoint, after checking the local Tractor Supply, there’s no Jobe’s (organic) fertilizer to be found at either site (save the one torn bag at Home Depot).
The shelves are empty … for that item at least.
Mass Psychological Shift
Remember our example of herd behavior? That it can turn on a dime; doing it instantly across thousands of miles?
Storable food is running low. What about seeds and fertilizer?
Genesis 41
What happens when the public realizes all-at-once, it’s the food supply that’s not ever (in quantity) coming back?
Suppose they collectively decide (rightly or wrongly), the ‘stackers’ are just another herd of followers.
That it was all yet another lie; a diversion away from the real problem.
Silver and gold are great if you already have it.
However, this site’s sticking to the Biblical, Genesis 41, world view.
That is, corn and grain (food) come first. Then, gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).
Remember, Joseph was paid first (for grain) with money (i.e., the silver stack).
When the money was exhausted, livestock was used.
When that ran out, the people sold themselves into slavery to obtain food.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Just like the biotech sector intentionally euthanizing (a polite word for what’s really happening) its customer base, here we have another entity calling out its own followers as the problem.
It’s similar to the rabid, mindless, one-way (only goes up) gold bulls crying ‘it’s all rigged’, when their pathetic attempts at analysis don’t work out; we now have another entity citing YOU as the problem when the forecasts fall flat.
This is yet another so-called financial source that can be permanently crossed off the watch list.
Brutal, But Beneficial:
Admittedly, the ‘tone’ of the posts on this site are not for everyone.
Even mild-mannered Dan at I Allegedly, finds himself responding to snowflakes that complain about his ‘get ready’ posts.
There’s good reason why the average are so ignorant.
For those who were actually listening in middle-school, the history books conveniently leave out the part where millions of Americans died of starvation during the Great Depression.
No pictures of emaciated bodies. Nothing.
With what’s coming, we’re likely headed for mass casualties in one form or another. The financial community refuses (from what I’ve seen) to discuss this up-coming event.
For example:
If you’re still using a ‘financial advisor’ and they’re not talking about, or don’t know about the elephant, do you really want to be (paying for and) taking direction from someone who’s that lazy, fearful, or ignorant?
Prechter, said it himself when he stated, the next mega bear market’s going to wipe out the ‘wealth management’ industry.
We may be on the cusp of that now.
Not Advice:
With that said, this site does not, and will not give financial advice.
Each person has his (her) own situation in life. You are the one to decide on your next direction or action.
What this site does do, is attempt to provide analysis and supporting price action data on what’s really going on.
What’s the market saying about itself?
If you’re still reading, that was a very long intro to get to our topic for the day: Gold miners, GDX.
Wyckoff Analysis: Senior Miners, GDX
What we see from the weekly chart is straightforward.
GDX, has been channeling lower for about a year:
The next chart shows we’ve penetrated support and are now testing the underside.
Of note: GDX is in ‘spring’ position. An upward attempt is to be expected.
If GDX was to break out and start a sustained bull move, this would be the spot. We’re at the danger point.
In my view, the participants in this sector are borderline delusional, if not completely insane.
They disregard what the market’s actually doing; holding to a (so far, for years now) unverified belief that ‘$10,000/oz gold, is just around the corner.’
It could very well be … but only after the (possibly, soon to be) starving stackers have sold off their hoard to buy food.
One has to wrap their mind around the fact, we’re being subjected to a long term diabolical plan.
Thinking and acting with that long game in mind (in my view) provides at least a hope for not only survival, but positioning to prosper during the on-going collapse.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
No other major index has three consecutive quarters lower.
Even the gold miners (GDX, GDXJ), while in a bear market, still had an up quarter with the one ending June 30th, this year.
So, what does this mean?
Slow At First. Then, All At Once:
The first answer is the obvious one; the air is slowly but steadily (thus far) coming out of this sector.
The second answer is more complicated.
As discussed yesterday, we’ve seen the phenomenon of instantaneous focus shift in disparate parties … a well documented and repeated occurrence in the animal kingdom.
We could see a similar thing with biotech or the markets overall.
As Dan from I Allegedly reported yesterday, the container ship pile-up off the coast and slow unloading is intentional.
The resulting shortages are intentional.
The corresponding price rises (camouflaged as ‘inflation’ by the media), are intentional.
It’s possible (speculation) that by having prices go up and the media touting it as inflation, the public, pile into the corresponding sectors such as gold, silver and the miners … all of which have been heading lower.
More importantly, what this crowd does NOT do, is go the other direction; sell and sell short, stockpile food, water, medicine, tools, hardware, consumables, protection, backup power.
Of course, some of them are.
However, just in my neighborhood as I look around and down the street, there are fifteen houses that are visible.
I know for a fact, only two (this residence and the neighbor across the street) have been, and are, taking preparatory action: That equates to 13%.
Driving through the neighborhood to get to a main road, there are about another 40 homes.
I can see, none of them have an operation garden (or livestock) of any kind: That makes our ‘prep’ percentage go down to 3.6.%.
The real percentage (for the entire neighborhood) may be close to 0.5%, or less.
This is probably a typical number but your mileage may vary.
Instantaneous Shift:
That low percentage (0.5%), gives a clue to how vicious a down-draft could be once everyone realizes they’ve been had.
Couple that with our ‘elephant’ from yesterday, and it may be absolute insanity.
All of which, brings us to the chart of biotech (SPBIO).
SPBIO Analysis:
Not only was it a down quarter but on a monthly and weekly basis, SPBIO has posted reversal and continuation (down) bars respectively.
The unmarked monthly chart of SPBIO, is below:
The next two charts show monthly reversal bars and then a Fibonacci projection to lower levels.
The projection was taken from the all time high on February 9th, this year, to the intermediate low, May 11th; then the counter-trend pivot high on June 28th.
It’s interesting to note; the monthly reversal bars are Fibonacci 8-months apart.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The gold and mining sector continues to be chocked full of delusional bulls and rabid hyper-inflationists.
Just take a cursory look at YouTube sites that continue to ‘stack’. As repeated many times over the past year the ‘hyperinflation’ narrative is just not happening.
Food price increases along with fuel and shipping, are all related to a controlled demolition of the supply chain.
It’s not hyper-inflation.
It really does not take much research effort to figure that part out.
If there is a trade here, we’re going to leave it (not advice, not a recommendation) and just watch to see where the carnage goes.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With a slight new daily high, we’re potentially at the end of the GDX rally.
It should be noted: The past two weeks of trading have stayed within the price extremes of the wide bar posted during the week of August 20th.
This is called ‘inside action’; typically signaling preparation for the next phase … whether up or down.
Note, the inverse fund DUST pushed just 0.02 points (DUST, 19.78) below our stop level (not advice, not a recommendation).
That position was elected to be maintained … we’re still short.
The hourly unmarked chart of GDX is below:
Next, we invert the chart to mimic the inverse fund DUST:
Now, comes the mark-up:
From Wyckoff’s writings all the way back to circa 1910, he discussed ‘shortening of the thrust’.
When net progress becomes less and less … we know we’re nearing the end of the move.
Throw into the mix the high level of resistance at the GDX 33.00, and probabilities favor the downside … upside for DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 