Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As the prior update stated, the LABD-25-06, trade was exited in the pre-market yesterday. XBI was at support and that was the reason for exit.
At the time it was unknown, later in the session, we’d get (potentially) the largest short-covering rally in history.
Currently (as of 8:03 a.m., EST), XBI, is trading slightly lower.
Depending on the regular session action, the short trade (via LABD) may be re-opened (not advice, not a recommendation).
Gold Tops
For gold (GLD), large volume, wide price swings can be signs of trouble.
Yesterday was huge volume and price bar, resulting in a ‘Force Index’ reading of ‘257.8’-mil.
That does not necessarily mean anything until it’s put into context.
That last time there was a similar high-energy move was March 8th, 2022; a ‘Force’ reading of 243.1-mil, that put in a top, not exceeded for nearly 2-years.
Miners Test
Then, the miners, GDX, GDXJ.
For this update we’ll look at the Juniors, GDXJ.
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily
There was a breakdown (with gap) from the wedge. That breakdown has been tested.
Along with the test potentially complete, the price gap from last Friday’s action (4/4/25) has essentially been closed.
Positioning
Short the GDXJ, via JDST as Trade JDST-25-07; the stop is (equivalent to) a few ticks above yesterday’s (56.18) GDXJ high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The biotech short LABD-25-05, has been closed: Profit on the main position is +61.25% (not advice, not a recommendation).
While the market is hysterical, price action in XBI, indicates the current down move is losing (some) energy, hence the reason for the exit.
Biotech XBI, Daily
Exit was made at the lower channel line (demand line) contact.
The market could certainly continue lower from here.
However, from past experience and watching huge profits erode to only mediocre results, the same mistake is not being presented here (not advice, not a recommendation).
Meanwhile, the gold miners don’t look like the safe haven everybody thought they were.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Those on this site daily, knew something was about to happen in a big way.
It was just, when.
Now, markets are volatile if not imploding.
Nearly all sectors reversing at once.
As of this post (10:55 a.m., EST), some of those are attempting to recover (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) with others down hard (not advice, not a recommendation).
There were plenty of clues:
Massive volume increase in GLL, strange activity in biotech, then resignation at the FDA, failure of NVDA to get back to a 50% retrace, the list goes on.
As mentioned yesterday, one sector that’s continuing lower is biotech, XBI.
Biotech XBI, Daily
There may be several trading channels in effect. Only the most aggressive (so far) is shown.
Note the locations of short positioning via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
As of this post, the initial LABD short, entered on March 25th, is up over +40%.
Going Forward
So, what happens now?
For this trade, Livermore said it best (paraphrasing):
Position on the right side of the market (the correct direction), then wait.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Sometimes, the question is not ‘what’s happening’, but ‘what’s not happening’.
In today’s case, we have gold (GLD) at new highs and the miners, not.
Not only are they not following gold higher, for the Juniors GDXJ, and the ‘Silvers’ SILJ, they both posted a new weekly low.
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily
Last Friday was a reversal bar.
Today (so far) we have gold at new all-time highs and the miners lagging (not advice, not a recommendation).
As of this post (12:54 p.m., EST), GDXJ, has moved up to test Friday’s low.
While price action retraces to test, it’s closing the gap on the amount of risk for a short position.
With that in mind, a direct short of GDXJ, has been opened (GDXJ-25-01) with the stop at (or to be) the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: As a result of the gold hysteria, YouTube grifting, book writing, podcast interviews, dollar collapse, and ‘It’s all coming down’ mania, instant gratification on this position is not expected. 🙂
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Good: Only the Senior Miners, GDX, have managed to claw their way past the highs set nearly five years ago in August of 2020.
The Bad: Junior Miners GDXJ, remain below that August ’20, level.
The Ugly: Silver Miners SILJ, are the worst, having their peak a bit later in February of 2021; they remain over -35%, below their highs.
The Market Rolls Over
Yesterday, Friday, was a down day for the Dow, S&P, The Qs, Transports, Airlines, Semis, nearly everyone.
For some of these indices, their all-time highs were posted months, if not years ago.
There may be some (bidding) ‘defensive’ action with gold (GLD) continuing higher; as said in earlier posts, the rest of the monetary metals are far below their highs.
Let’s look at the weakest; the silver miners, as they are likely going to be the ones most affected by an economic decline (not advice, not a recommendation).
Silver Miners, SILJ, Daily
We’re at an interesting spot.
Friday was a down day that pushed below existing support, shown in zoom area.
We have simultaneous action.
Once resistance was penetrated on March 18th, it could not hold. After eight trading days, on Friday, it posted lower on heavy volume.
However, we can see that SILJ, is now in (a minor) Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. So, the question is, what happens next?
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’re just hours away from the Sunday futures open.
Yesterday, military attacks on Houthi rebels have commenced; links here, here, and here.
Middle East conflict escalates.
The question is, will the markets see it that way?
Will it be ‘escalation’, with gold futures ever higher, or is it ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’?
If we’re looking at potential gold/silver related downside, then let’s review the miners; they’ve been in a bear market for nearly five years (not advice, not a recommendation).
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly Close
Before getting to the right side of the chart, let’s start with the ‘Time’s Up’, arrow; a reversal and decline over 50%.
At this point, gold and the miners appear to be stretched with silver currently in non-confirmation.
If it was really (simple) inflation, it would be like the 1980s, with both moving in tandem.
Then & Now
With that, what has GDXJ, done in the past?
The chart itself shows us it tends to exhibit a repeating pattern of Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.
We may know within hours if gold, silver, and the miners, are going to reverse or launch into some kind of extended rally (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
This update on the miners GDXJ, said we’re close to a bearish divergence if the ETF makes a new high.
This update also said to watch for a new daily high, finishing with this:
“Before anyone gets overly bullish, let’s also keep in mind, the high print at the left of the chart in October of last year, is still below the print discussed in this post. over four years ago (not advice, not a recommendation).”
With today’s price action we could be ticks away from that anticipated new daily high (above the 2/20, 52.91).
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily
Note the typical (average) 50%, retrace between blue lines, that was then followed by a deeper 61.8% retrace, from blue to magenta lines.
The last deep retrace to 61.8%, tells us supply is building even though price continues higher.
Best case scenario: Next session opens gap-higher, clearing out stops (buy and sell), creating price action instability (not advice, not a recommendation),
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 