Category Archives: JDST

Gold, Way Back To 2009 !

March 14, 2022 By in GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

That’s How Far We Have To Go

All the way back to late November 2009, to find a bar that’s remotely similar to the one just posted last week.

Even then, there are key differences.

The reversal during the week of November 30th, 2009 was after a breakout and run-up of about 20%; from the resistance/support area around GLD, @ 100.

Last week’s bar was within a trading range not outside it. Also, we had to wait until this morning’s open to get a new weekly low.

Volume (blow-off) characteristics were similar:

Week-ending 11/30/09, volume 93% higher than the week before; week-ending 3/11/22, volume 43% higher than the week before.

GLD, Weekly Chart

The chart gives us a feel for just how far back we have to go to find similar price action.

The prior update said at this juncture, longer term momentum indicators are pointing higher. Thus, suggesting there will be some kind of upward test either today or this week (Fed meeting?).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

Earlier this month, this post said to expect GDXJ, to up-thrust in the 48 – 50, area.

That’s exactly where we are now.

GDXJ, back then.

GDXJ, now.

There we have it. The repeating pattern of ‘Spring to Up-thrust’

That does not guarantee a downside reversal. It just shows us price action repeats these behaviors; doing so for decades, if not hundreds of years.

What happens now?

Longer term momentum indicators point higher and give the bias to the upside.

However, something that can be done is to use that upward bias to position short at the lowest risk possible (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning via JDST

Junior Miners GDXJ, could come back to test the trendline break shown below starting today, through Wednesday.

If it does, the difference between being correct (about going short) and continued bull side action may be narrowed as much as possible (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that happens, the JDST stop will be very tight.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Gold (GDXJ) Charts

March 2, 2022 By in GDXJ, GLD, JDST 2 Comments

Planning The Next Reversal

Will gold press on to new highs?

We’re at a juncture with gold and the market itself, determines the next trading move.

From the chart of the Junior Miners, GDXJ, below, it shows a now obvious upside reversal from a spring condition.

That is, when price action penetrated weekly lows at the end of January, it set up possibilities for reversal.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly

In what should be a very familiar looking set-up, we can see GDXJ, is heading for a potential up-thrust condition (magenta oval).

As a reminder, this is what the daily gold (GLD) chart looked like back in September last year, before a similar (downside) reversal:

The resistance line is there, the wide (high volume) bar, everything.

Gold To New Highs ?

For the GDXJ set-up to come about, it would make sense that gold would head higher.

As stated, we’re already at the 1:1, measured-move, a-b-c, level.

It’s important to note, that level (GLD, 182.60) has not been breached. Today’s action could have been a test of the highs in anticipation of downside reversal.

However, there’s a Fibonacci projection slightly higher to the GLD 196, area … just above the all time high of 194.45, set way back in mid-August of 2020.

Summary:

At this juncture, all short positions have been closed (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s obvious world (and market) events are moving rapidly; the above analysis could be negated at the very next session.

Even so, it still provides a framework of what to expect should gold continue on to new highs … including the next target location, GLD 196.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Short-Squeeze, Junior Miners

February 16, 2022 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST 1 Comment

It’s Not Demand, It’s A Squeeze

GDXJ, Price Reversal Imminent ?

With gold sector pundits bloviating, the ever-present challenge is to cut through the bilge and see what price action’s actually doing.

Stepping away for a few days, then taking another look at the charts, has yielded some potential insight into what’s really going on.

Junior Miners, GDXJ:

The first chart shows GDXJ, in the top panel with Force Index, in the lower.

Note the Force/Volume spikes … after the demand is satisfied, price collapses … at least on the first spike; we can’t say for sure the outcome of current action.

Price spikes and volume that subsequently collapse; the textbook definition of a short-squeeze.

There’s no real bullish demand or price would launch into a bull run.

The second chart highlights the areas in question.

The last chart gives one more clue that price may reverse from current levels.

Not only do we have a potential squeeze, but we’re also contacting an established trend line.

It looks like the squeeze is over. Volume has dropped significantly and price is up against established (trend) resistance.

Gold Higher, Miners Lower

Discussed many times, it (almost) doesn’t matter what gold is doing. It can go higher and yet the miners go lower.

We won’t know exactly why until it’s all over; one possible explanation’s that corporate collapse is already baked into the cake of the major equities …

Summary:

Remember their tagline, “We’re all in this together”.

So they are.

All major corporations implementing self-destruct (sustainability) policies … all of them doing it, ‘together’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Natural Gas First: Who’s Next ?

February 8, 2022 By in Corn, Food Supply, GDXJ, GLD, Gold Miners, Good Patriot, JDST, JDST-22-01, Positions, UNG

Is it Corn?

So, it begins.

This link to an article where lawmakers (using that term loosely) are attempting to limit the export of natural gas.

We’ve already discussed the likelihood of some type of corn or grain embargo as prices continue higher.

Now, we have a similar (limit export) event but in the energy sector.

Recall, the statement from that prior (corn) post:

“What we’re looking for here, is some kind of Jimmy Carter type stunt where corn exports are halted in the name of ‘national security’ or some such thing.”

And this, from the same post:

“Of course, if that happens, corn is likely to crash (like it did last time) if only temporarily.”

So, let’s take a look at what happened to natural gas (UNG), when our lawmaking geniuses proposed to limit exports.

Daily Chart Natural Gas, UNG:

So, when this type of announcement comes out, the market takes a major hit … just like it’s forecast to do if we get something similar in corn (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, if the overall long-term objective, is to wipe-out the food supply, wouldn’t you want some kind of dry run to make sure markets are going to respond as expected?

So, let’s try natural gas first, shall we?

Remember that with corn, it will (if it happens) be different.

Because of the elevated fertilizer prices, a forced lowering of the corn market may be all that’s needed to make sure very little-to-no corn gets planted … and Voila!

For a reminder on just what exactly we’re dealing with here, please reference this link.

Moving on to other markets, we have some housekeeping in the gold mining sector.

Junior Miners, GDXJ:

As stated in the pre-market update yesterday, the finger was on the sell trigger.

After the first hour of trade, it was obvious higher prices were in the offing.

Not willing to wait through a correction to a higher retrace level, the short position was closed-out (not advice, not a recommendation).

The table below summarizes the entire round-trip. It should be somewhat self-explanatory.

A hypothetical $10,000 was used as the starting amount. Any additions to the position used margin.

The end result as shown, approximately, +21%, gain.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold, Before The Open

February 7, 2022 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-22-01, Positions 1 Comment

Gold Miners GDXJ, To Close The Gap ?

The magenta arrow and bar show pre-market action in Junior Miners GDXJ, about 25-minutes before the open.

Fibonacci retrace levels as noted.

The zoom chart shows a gap that action may be trying to fill and then? Is there something more?

Sated earlier, a 23.6%, retrace is rare and 38.2%, more common.

Summary:

The market looks to open higher.

If so, typical behavior is to come down for a test and then continue upward if that’s the overriding direction.

If the expected test fails, action may continue lower.

Once again, we’re at the danger point. The action itself defines the trading response.

Friday saw a partial exit of the short JDST-22-01, position in anticipation of higher prices (not advice not a recommendation)

Today may see the rest of the exit if the pivot higher is confirmed (typically within the first hour).

The fact pre-market trading is subdued with just (so far) a half-point or about 1.0% gain, still suggests weakness.

We can see price action penetrated support (bottom blue line) on the chart and so GDXJ, is in ‘spring position’. However, thus far that spring appears to be weak.

There’s a lot going on at this juncture.

JDST-22-01, Position Table to be updated and posted later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Unbelievable’ Numbers

February 4, 2022 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, I Allegedly, JDST, JDST-22-01, Jerimiah Babe, Positions, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Good News Is Bad News. Bad News Is Good News

For all of us serfs in the banana republic proletariat, it’s near if not impossible, to keep up with the lies.

The latest ‘employment‘ report is just one example.

This video from Jerimiah Babe, posted a few days ago has a different story. Check out the intro and then farther on at time stamp: 9:00.

For a second opinion, we can go to Dan, at i-Allegedly.

On his latest post, fast-forward to time stamp 7:00, where he walks through an outdoor restaurant area that’s completely vacant.

The ’employment’ report is vapor. Judging from the comments (at ZeroHedge) most everyone seems to be aware of the fakery.

Naturally, with all of this uncertainty and rampant inflation, the logical place to go would be the gold market.

Junior Miners, GDXJ

As this post is being created (mid-session), the Junior Miners are at the danger point. Price action’s at a location where it’s decision time.

So far, it’s an ‘inside day’. We don’t have a new daily high or low from the previous session.

The Fib retrace of 23.6%, discussed previously is holding for now. That weights action to the downside.

Posting a new daily high would begin to erode the set-up; potentially indicating GDXJ, is going to attempt a retrace to the Fib 38%, level.

If that higher retrace becomes a more favorable probability, the JDST-22-01, trade will likely be closed out (not advice not a recommendation).

The chart below shows the inside action thus far.

The table below has the current positioning JDST-22-01, via inverse fund JDST (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, the sell finger is on the trigger. Description of color coding and table layout is in this post.

Summary:

Trade decisions posted on this site are defined by the price action itself (not advice, not a recommendation). Wyckoff analysis does not concern itself with what’s obviously fake.

Wyckoff focuses strictly on what the market is saying about itself.

At this juncture, price action’s saying that both bulls and bears, are at the danger point.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Junior Miners, Stall-Out

February 3, 2022 By in DUST, Food Supply, GDX, GDXJ, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Good Patriot, I Allegedly, JDST, JDST-22-01, S&P 500, SPY 2 Comments

First To Reverse

For the evening/overnight session, both gold and the S&P futures have opened lower.

The S&P is down 50-pts, nearly 1.10% (at about 8:15 p.m. Eastern) and already penetrating the last session’s low.

The number of technical factors concerning gold, the miners and especially the Junior Miners GDXJ, is significant.

We’ll cover just a few in this update.

Junior Miners, GDXJ: Daily

The un-marked daily chart shows GDXJ oscillating but in a general downward trend:

The next chart shows price action posted a reversal bar right at Fibonacci 23.6%, for the entire move; from the breakout highs in mid-November ’21, to the lows on January 28th, this year.

A ‘Fib’ retrace of 23.6%, is rare and if it holds, indicates significant weakness.

The next two charts present a case for why this shallow retrace may indeed hold and thus, indicate the start of the next leg lower.

On a print basis, it’s been a Fibonacci 55 (+1) days from the GDXJ print high on November 12th, 2021, to the high posted today (2/2/22).

The next chart shows that November 12th, 2021 was also the closing high of the breakout set-up.

The Important Part:

Yesterday, was the closing high of GDXJ (so far) and that makes it a perfect Fibonacci 55-Days, from peak-to-peak.

The last update on the miners showed significant down-pressure at support levels, unlike previous visits to the area.

Looks like we’ve had the rally that was forecast; that rally may now be fading.

“It’s reasonable to expect an attempt to rally in the coming week … but with this much down force, a successful rally is not the high-probability outcome.”

Gold Could Hold

Already discussed, is the idea, the actual price of gold may hold steady or even go higher and yet the mining sector collapses.

As Dan from i-Allegedly posts in this report, Italian wine makers are having a hard time getting corks for their bottles. That’s right, corks !!!

Does anyone really think a massive mining outfit is going to be able to source all they need to continue operations without interruption?

Let’s not even get started with the ‘sustainability’ corporate failure already baked into the cake 🙂

‘Stackers’ … We’ve Got You Covered

That’s right, if the last report was not enough, we now have this: Fertilizer plant on fire … imagine that.

Right in time for spring planting.

But wait, there’s more; look at the fire chief’s comments. How many “33s” can you count?

For we wrestle not …

“For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.”

Sorry for those who think it’s all a ‘myth‘. I’m with Good Patriot on this one (time stamp 17:09); that we’re in a battle surpassing all that’s come, since 33 AD.

Gold & Silver

Hard assets: Good to have for sure (ammunition, seeds and egg-laying hens may be better) … but if we’re really in a similar event to Genesis 41, that means the corn and grain come first, then gold and silver.

Summary:

This post started with the S&P down about -0.80% and it’s now down -1.10%, posting a new daily low.

Gold is down slightly, holding steady but that’s already been discussed above.

Remaining short the sector via JDST-22-01 (not advice not a recommendation).

Position size on JDST-22-01, has been increased. More on that in the next report.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Junior Miners, Trading Clues

January 29, 2022 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-22-01, Positions 1 Comment

Clues For Entry, Clues For Exit

The last time weekly down-thrust energy (Force-Index) was this deep, GDXJ price action ratcheted lower for 16-weeks before a significant reversal.

That reversal took place at support where GDXJ, is now. However, back then (week of October 1st), contact with support was on weakening Force-Index; this time, it’s increasing.

It’s reasonable to expect an attempt to rally in the coming week … but with this much down force, a successful rally is not the high-probability outcome.

Summary:

One possible clue for exit of short position, JDST-22-01, is to look for continued downside action but with divergent (lessening) thrust energy; not advice, not a recommendation.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

It’s The Poo … Turning Into Gold

January 28, 2022 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, ice-age-farmer, JDST, JDST-22-01, Positions, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Wait, What ? … We Really Do Need Cows ?

Unprecedented times, yields unprecedented events.

It looks like cow dung (i.e., fertilizer) is literally turning into gold.

From the October 12th, 2021, update:

“What happens when the public realizes all-at-once, it’s the food supply that’s not ever (in quantity) coming back?”

Of course, in our upside-down world, if dung is turning into gold, well then gold must be turning into, um, something akin to dung; and so, it is.

For those who have been monitoring this site and others like ice age farmer, this news is nothing new.

The assessment that gold (GLD) was in a reversal (up-thrust) test, published hours before the Fed announcement, appears to be correct.

From the mining sector, the Junior Miners (GDXJ) have been hit the hardest being down about – 10.7%, for the week (early session).

Junior Miners, GDXJ:

We’re going to use the weekly close chart of GDXJ, as presented in the January 24th, update; more specifically, this statement:

“If GDXJ really has pivoted more aggressively to the downside, price action will ‘get itself into the channel’ by accelerating sharply lower.”

So, let’s take a look.

GDXJ, Then:

GDXJ Now (early session):

It’s still a long way to go before the close. However, action seems to be accelerating lower into the new more aggressive down-channel.

More detail in the zoom chart below.

Positioning

As a courtesy, although not obligated in any way, the following is from the company’s trade spreadsheet (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘share size’ has been changed to indicate percentage of the position.

Frist, we had DUST-21-01, closed out (details discussed here) and then JDST-22-01, opened. We’ll call that initial open as 100%.

Then, additions were made and one reduction before adding again. Those changes are shown as percentages of the original size.

Example: If the original entry on 1/19, was 10,000 shares of JDST, then on 1/20, that amount was increased by 348, shares and so on.

The table below provides the dates and entry/exit prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary:

There may still be opportunity to increase position size.

However, it’s obvious at this point, the market’s in decline and volatility likely to increase all the more.

It’s literally been four months or longer, to plan this trade. As of this post, the combined position is up a nice +31%

The next order of business is to monitor action and locate potential exit targets and stop levels.

Meanwhile, the cow dung becomes ever more valuable. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Fighting The Last War

January 26, 2022 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-22-01, Van Metre 1 Comment

Because, Last Time Will Work This Time

Gold fund GLD, saw record inflows for the past year.

So, that’s the place to be, right?

In a rare (media) event, the answer may be included in the above link.

The analyst in the article is quoted as being “surprised” the actual metal, gold, has not moved appreciably higher as a result of massive ETF inflows.

Since before 1980 when gold reached an all time high (back then) of $850/oz., its’ been ‘inflation, inflation, inflation’.

That Was Then:

It’s been forty-plus years (some would argue more) of non-stop inflation.

At some point, the music stops; we seem to be very close.

Everybody stampeding into gold and related markets (i,e., the miners) appears to be fighting the last war: Inflation.

Where We Are Now:

In Steven Van Metre’s latest update, he presents just how precarious and fragile is, the current market environment.

It’s a short video, just under 13-minutes; it’s worth the time.

The internet’s been the great equalizer and so everyone has access to the same information.

After watching his video (time stamp 6:07), it raises the question as to why anyone, or any financial manager, would want to be long in the equity market (not advice, not a recommendation).

To Be, Or Not To Be, ‘Certified’

Let’s just throw in that ‘certified’ management actually underperforms non-certified peers. At least in the case of the CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

In the article above, it even states that ‘experience’ is a deciding factor. Imagine that. 🙂

One has to be smart to pass the certification tests. No doubt. However, ‘smart’ does not equal ‘savvy’.

Taking all of this into account, it’s reasonable to think we’re possibly just one ‘fat-finger’ away …

Gold Finished Testing ?

We’re a few hours from the Fed announcement but the market looks like it’s already made a decision.

The daily chart of gold (GLD) shows all that’s happened since the potential for up-thrust breakout was first presented.

The zoom chart shows price action right at the support/trendline of the terminating wedge.

More importantly, we see that action is below the established resistance line; possibility indicating the test is complete.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279